Pats' clinching/elimination options for a first round bye

[ctpatsfan77]

According to Playoffstatus.com, the Pats would be out of the running for a first-round bye with:

(A—not operative) JAC d. NE *and* any one of
1. DEN d. CLE or
2. MIA d. NE next week or
3. DEN d. KC next week

(B) MIA d. NE next week *and* either of
1. DEN d. CLE or
2. DEN d. KC next week

(C—not operative) HOU d. MIN *and* DEN d. CLE *and* DEN d. KC next week

(D) DEN d. CLE *and* HOU d. IND next week *and* DEN d. KC next week

* * * *

The Pats can clinch a first-round bye with either:

1. ANY THREE of NE d. JAC, NE d. MIA next week, CLE d. DEN, and KC d. DEN next week or
2. NE d. JAC, NE d. MIA next week, MIN d. HOU, and IND d. HOU

In other words, the Pats are not in control of their own destiny, but there might still even be a possibility of HFA.

 

[Patsrock]

Pats win and a Houston or Denver loss gets at a least #2.

Pats win and a Denver loss and a Houston loss gets #1

 

[The_Riddler]

I can see the 2-seed assuming Indy has something to play for next week. If they do and they beat the Texans and we hold court next week, we are the 2- seed with a first round bye.

No way is Denver losing these two games.

So would Indy have any incentive to play this one out next week against the Texans ?

 

[blackglass3]

Yes. Everyone asking to/thinking we will rest our starters next week are insane. We can still get #1 or #2 seed, why settle for a #3?

 

[blackglass3]

I can see the 2-seed assuming Indy has something to play for next week. If they do and they beat the Texans and we hold court next week, we are the 2- seed with a first round bye.

No way is Denver losing these two games.

So would Indy have any incentive to play this one out next week against the Texans ?

They can't move up in the seeding but they might be able to move down with a loss. Houston has never won in Indy and it will be Chuck Pagano's return game...would Indy want to throw Chuck Pagano's return game? That seems wrong to me, I don't know.

 

[The_Riddler]

They can't move up in the seeding but they might be able to move down with a loss. Houston has never won in Indy and it will be Chuck Pagano's return game...would Indy want to throw Chuck Pagano's return game? That seems wrong to me, I don't know.

Good point. I forgot that this is going to be Pagano's return. That alone should be enough to fire up that football team and win it for Chuck.

 

[blackglass3]

Good point. I forgot that this is going to be Pagano's return. That alone should be enough to fire up that football team and win it for Chuck.

But even if the Colts give up, we play at 1 and the Broncos play at 4. If we roll over and let Miami beat us, that will also allow the Broncos to rest their players. By winning next week we put the pressure on Manning to win. That, and maybe some bad weather (finally) in Denver will get him to fold.

Either way, Go Chiefs!!

 

[FCB02062]

Pretty sure ind controls where they plAy to an extent...win v hou and you guarantee NOT playing @ NE.... I think

 

[BelichickFan]

They can't move up in the seeding but they might be able to move down with a loss. Houston has never won in Indy and it will be Chuck Pagano's return game...would Indy want to throw Chuck Pagano's return game? That seems wrong to me, I don't know.

The question is whether Indy can move down to #6 with a loss. I don't know if they can but they will REALLY want #5 because after we destroyed them earlier, #5 would get them @Bal or @Cin whereas #6 would put them in Foxboro (assuming we don't get a bye).

Hopefully there's a scenario in which Indy can move down to #6 because that (in addition to Pagano) would give them incentive for the game.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

The question is whether Indy can move down to #6 with a loss. I don't know if they can but they will REALLY want #5 because after we destroyed them earlier, #5 would get them @Bal or @Cin whereas #6 would put them in Foxboro (assuming we don't get a bye).

Hopefully there's a scenario in which Indy can move down to #6 because that (in addition to Pagano) would give them incentive for the game.

Colts boards are saying that the 5th seed is theirs because they have a strength of victory tiebreaker edge over the Bengals even if they tie with the Bengals in record and conf. record

 

[FCB02062]

If Ind lost and cin won nxt week the wc tiebreaker would come down to common opponents to determine seeding because theyd be tied in conf record....don't know the common opponents at this time
EDIt: Actually don't think common opponents applies because need a minimum of four....goes to strenght of victory....right now ind has slight lead but might change with cin win v pit?????

 

[PatriotSeven]

The question is whether Indy can move down to #6 with a loss. I don't know if they can but they will REALLY want #5 because after we destroyed them earlier, #5 would get them @Bal or @Cin whereas #6 would put them in Foxboro (assuming we don't get a bye).

Hopefully there's a scenario in which Indy can move down to #6 because that (in addition to Pagano) would give them incentive for the game.

They clinched. There's no way they can move back down. But...if they lose Houston gets the bye week as the #1 seed and they would get one of the 2 wildcards if any of them advance, which would pretty much guarantee the possibility of a Colts-Houston game in the divisional round, since we're going to take out Cincinnati, and a 3rd Houston-Colts game in a span of 1 month.

The NFL doesn't want this. They can pretty much assure Colts will get the Broncos in the divisional round by beating Houston next week. They want Manning vs Luck then Manning vs Brady. In the powers that be I trust

 

[FCB02062]

ACTUALLY.....if it DOES come down to strength of victory, Pretty sure CIN would leapgrog IND if CIN beats PIT and HOU beats IND....if my math is right CIN sov would increase to .380 while IND would be .369. Currently CIN is .353

 

[PATPATRIOT1]

They can't move up in the seeding but they might be able to move down with a loss. Houston has never won in Indy and it will be Chuck Pagano's return game...would Indy want to throw Chuck Pagano's return game? That seems wrong to me, I don't know.

Indy threw an entire season last year to get the #1 pick.. You think they would do the Pats a favor? I'm not counting on it..

 

[blackglass3]

Indy threw an entire season last year to get the #1 pick.. You think they would do the Pats a favor? I'm not counting on it..

It has nothing to do with doing the Pats a favor, but it would do Manning and Denver a favor AND hurts a division foe.

 

[JMC00]

If the Ravens hold on, playoff seeding wise Indy, Baltimore and Cincinnati all have nothing to play for next week as their seeds are set. Although if the Pats lose and Ravens win Ravens will be the #3 seed.

Indy will be at Baltimore. Cincinnati will be at the #3 seed.


If Houston & Baltimore have halftime leads, don't be surprised if Mallett is out there for the second half and you see Arrington, Cole, Chung & Wilson in the secondary.

I think Belichick might like the chances with Indy in the first round. Although Baltimore maybe thinking the same thing and could complete tank next week against the Bengals in order to get the Colts in the 1st round.

Which my guess is exactly what they will do. Then again the Bengals could easily tank knowing they would rather go to Baltimore than New England, Houston or Denver (keep in mind Denver plays at 4)

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

Sadly it looks as if the best hope for a bye is KC beating Den, ouch!
For Indy, hard to ask a team to go out and match the intensity that the Texans should show (they have something very important to play for).

The return of their coach is a wild card. Also, if I was Indy, considering they have been playing borderline at best lately, you might want to think of trying to go into the playoffs playing 'upward' football. Yet I don't see it happening. Indy is going to count their blessings they are in and rest starters.

Too bad, this game was winnable for Indy (and a bye was there for us!).

 

[FCB02062]

If the Ravens hold on, playoff seeding wise Indy, Baltimore and Cincinnati all have nothing to play for next week as their seeds are set. Although if the Pats lose and Ravens win Ravens will be the #3 seed.

Indy will be at Baltimore. Cincinnati will be at the #3 seed.


If Houston & Baltimore have halftime leads, don't be surprised if Mallett is out there for the second half and you see Arrington, Cole, Chung & Wilson in the secondary.

I think Belichick might like the chances with Indy in the first round. Although Baltimore maybe thinking the same thing and could complete tank next week against the Bengals in order to get the Colts in the 1st round.

Which my guess is exactly what they will do. Then again the Bengals could easily tank knowing they would rather go to Baltimore than New England, Houston or Denver (keep in mind Denver plays at 4)

Link? Think cin and ind could flip spots

 

[blackglass3]

Call me crazy, but if it comes to it I don't mind taking our talents to Denver. I know historically we have been bad there, but that was always vs. Shanahan (who also gave us fits last year in Washington). Playing against Jack Del Rio has always made Brady look amazing, and they don't have near the running game they did when we played them back in October.

I have no desire to fall to #4 by using next week as a bye. The Colts and Texans have plenty of motivation to beat us after we smoked each of them, choosing to lose seems like a bad route to take.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

being the number 2 seed might be better than the 1st seed:

Cincinnati #6 would defeat Houston #3

Indy #5 would defeat Baltimore #4


In the divisional round,

NE would host Indy

Denver would host Cincinatti


I can definitely see the Bengals upsetting the Broncos, and assuming we beat Indy, we would host the AFC championship against the bengals.