Idle thoughts.....the abridged version.

[patfanken]

This has been a strange week. Its been along time since there has been less interest in an upcoming opponent. Most of the talk this week has been about LAST week's game, and future playoff scenarios. It would seem that the only way that this team could lose this game would be is if the team takes the game as casually as the fans have.

1. The following eleven RBs all have 2 things in common.

1. Adrian Peterson
2. Marshawn Lynch
3. Alfred Morris
4. Chris Johnson
5. BJGE
6. Shawn Greene
7. Reggie Bush
8. Trent Richardson
9. Ahmad Bradshaw
10. Lashawn McCoy
11. Michael Turnner

They are all top 20 RB's in the league. Secondly they all have at least 3 fumbles. So I wonder if there are 11 other cities where their fans and media are all wringing their hands like old women keening about the critical fumbling problem their top RB has. The answer is NO!

The fact is that Steven Ridley is being unfairly persecuted for doing something that happens to EVERY RB. Are you aware that there are only THREE other RB who have 250 carries and LESS than 3 fumbles?....in the entire league. (Gore, Foster, & Martin) Are you aware that Gore had 5 fumbles in his 2nd year in the league, and Foster had 3 in the second year he had a significant number of carries? Are you aware that Adrian Peterson had NINE in his 2nd year?

So lets cut the crap and get real. We would all like Steven Ridely never to fumble the ball, but the fact remains that he will, just like every other RB in the league. What WE need to do is to stop acting like its the Mayan Apocalypse every time it happens (within reason).

Personally I think he can cut his fumbles in half by ridding himself of the his habit of turning his back to the LOS in in the hole. IIRC a couple of his fumbles have occurred when he puts himself in this position. But by and large his fumbles AREN'T being caused by him being careless with the ball. Bottom line: Ridley is a young player. He will probably get better at this as his career goes on For example Tom Brady had 36 fumbles in his first 3 years in the league.and 60 over his first 6 years, but just 11 over the last 3 years. So we might want to think twice about running him out of town

BTW- I think it should be noted that there hasn't been a lot of this Ridley Hating going on here, but its been rampant in the media and on talk radio where its a major topic.

2. The Pats offense got a lot of respect for their comeback last week, and rightfully so. However that same respect wasn't given to the defense. The Pats secondary is still being treated with disdain despite the fact it gave up only 216 yards through the air. The defense only gave up 5 out of 14 third down conversions, and were put into horrible situations by the offense for most of the game.

Much like the Houston game, the first SF drive was off the charts bad for the defense, but after that, I thought they played a much better game than they are being credited with. Granted it certainly wasn't a great job, and there were many examples where it has to improve. However, there were also many examples of good solid play. In fact more good than bad. I just can't get that 216 yd number out of my head. That could be a season low.

Am I the only one that saw a lot of good stuff on defense in that game. Despite this set back, I'm still confident that the defense is still on track to be “playoff quality” when the time comes (assuming we get there in relative good health)

3. I read something that caught my eye and is timely since our next opponent is going to be the Dolphins. Personally I think Joe Philbin has done a nice job this year. I think Tannyhill has shown enough to at least give Dolphins fans some hope, and beyond that I think they are slowly developing a solid roster, and a very good defense.

So when I saw this blurb somewhere, I took notice. This off season, the Dolphins will have 9 draft picks (including 5 in the first 3 rounds) and $45MM in cap space. That's why I think THEY are going to be the “next big threat” to our domination of the AFCE.

If Tannyhill can take another step forward. If they add some offensive weapons with all those picks and cap space. They are going to be a very dangerous team going forward. It will be interesting to watch them. Its been a LOOOONNNNNGGGG time since we've played a meaning series of games with the Phins. 2008 seems like a mirage. They had that great year and were gone....back into virtual oblivion.

I'm old enough to remember when it was the Dolphins and NOT the Jets who were our main rivals. Prior to the 90's the greatest win in Pats history was probably the playoff victory by the 85 Pats in Miami that sent us to the Superbowl. I put it in the top 5 even now. And one the best regular season wins of the superbowl era was the OT win in Miami (2001 or 2003, I can't remember)

So like Cassandra, I sound the warning....Beware the Phins.

4. A win and good heath is all I ask for tomorrow. I almost hope its an ugly one. While I want to win the last 2 games, I'd almost like for the Pats to fall out. of favor with the mediots and drop below the superbowl radar.

BTW- It wasn't very long ago when the Bears were considered the top team in the league. It only took about a month, and Lovie Smith is getting his resume up to date. Its a fickle league. It doesn't take long or much for the winds of fortune to change. Just as Steven Ridley

 

[CheeseMonkeys]

As for Ridley, It's not that it's problem but the fact that he fumbled in a game that ended in a loss by only 7 points. It was also an important game to win to maintain the #2 seed. For those reasons alone he got a lot of criticism.

I'm sure he's hearing it from the coaching staff as well and rightfully so. He's young player and holding onto the ball is going to be a necessity in the postseason.

EDIT: ^ For some reason I was thinking it was two fumbles but as Ian pointed out it was only once.

 

[randomk1]

Meh...as long as Brady is under center Ryan Tannehill will not worry me. I think he is being overrated. He isn't close to the other rookie QBs who are tearing **** up imo.

 

[Ian]

As for Ridley, It's not that it's problem but the fact that he fumbled twice in a game that ended in a loss by only 7 points. It was also an important game to win to maintain the #2 seed. For those reasons alone he got a lot of criticism.

I'm sure he's hearing it from the coaching staff as well and rightfully so. He's young player and holding onto the ball is going to be a necessity in the postseason.

Another thing that annoyed me about this week. He fumbled once, not twice. The first time he was clearly down and the officials called it as such. His only fumble of the game came on a night where the ball was wet and the defender put his helmet squarely on the ball. It was a perfect tackle and a tough turnover for Ridley. He'll simply have to learn to be a little more careful when playing in elements like that.

 

[patfanken]

Another thing that annoyed me about this week. He fumbled once, not twice. The first time he was clearly down and the officials called it as such. His only fumble of the game came on a night where the ball was wet and the defender put his helmet squarely on the ball. It was a perfect tackle and a tough turnover for Ridley. He'll simply learn to be a little more careful when playing in elements like that.

I can't agree with you more. It only goes to show how too often, impression becomes reality today. It doesn't have to be the truth for it to be real to a lot of people.

 

[CheeseMonkeys]

Another thing that annoyed me about this week. He fumbled once, not twice. The first time he was clearly down and the officials called it as such. His only fumble of the game came on a night where the ball was wet and the defender put his helmet squarely on the ball. It was a perfect tackle and a tough turnover for Ridley. He'll simply have to learn to be a little more careful when playing in elements like that.

Thanks for the clarification. also, hopefully Kaepernick is getting ripped apart by the San Fran Media for having rock hands and messing up all those snaps.

 

[mayoclinic]

I read something that caught my eye and is timely since our next opponent is going to be the Dolphins. Personally I think Joe Philbin has done a nice job this year. I think Tannyhill has shown enough to at least give Dolphins fans some hope, and beyond that I think they are slowly developing a solid roster, and a very good defense.

So when I saw this blurb somewhere, I took notice. This off season, the Dolphins will have 9 draft picks (including 5 in the first 3 rounds) and $45MM in cap space. That's why I think THEY are going to be the “next big threat” to our domination of the AFCE.

If Tannyhill can take another step forward. If they add some offensive weapons with all those picks and cap space. They are going to be a very dangerous team going forward. It will be interesting to watch them. Its been a LOOOONNNNNGGGG time since we've played a meaning series of games with the Phins. 2008 seems like a mirage. They had that great year and were gone....back into virtual oblivion.

I'm old enough to remember when it was the Dolphins and NOT the Jets who were our main rivals. Prior to the 90's the greatest win in Pats history was probably the playoff victory by the 85 Pats in Miami that sent us to the Superbowl. I put it in the top 5 even now. And one the best regular season wins of the superbowl era was the OT win in Miami (2001 or 2003, I can't remember)

So like Cassandra, I sound the warning....Beware the Phins.

A week or so ago I posted a link to a spreadsheet about how all 32 teams' current rosters (including PS and players on IR) were constructed. It was notable that the Pats' had only 14 players from before 2009.

One other team really jumped out at me ... the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks hired Pete Carroll and Jon Schneider prior to the 2010 season, and they have almostly completely rebuilt their roster in 3 seasons. Only 7 players remain from the previous regime, and only 1 - Red Bryant - would be someone I consider an impact player. Max Unger, Leroy Hill and Brandon Mebane are all solid contributors. The rest was done in less than 3 years via trade, FA and the draft. It's a young team, with the nucleus under contract for some time. If I had to pick one team I think will be a long term competitor for the Pats as a SB contender for the next 3-5 years, it would be Seattle.

The point is that you can almost completely rebuild an NFL team from the scrap heap into a serious competitor in about 3 years. To do so you need a few things:

1. A good GM with an eye for talent and the ruthlessness to critically evaluate the roster.
2. A good coach, with a consistent plan and a no-nonense approach.
3. A consistent strategy between the GM and the coach regarding personnel selection and development.
4. Solid, reliable, ownership support.
5. A favorable cap/draft situation.

The last is helpful, but not essential. Seattle started 2010 with 2 top 15 picks. But a team can get out of salary cap hell by having the intestinal fortitude to jettison players and take a cap hit, being willing to be bad for a year or two in order to pay the price and get better. It may add a year on to your rebuilding plan, but if you are willing to bite the bullet and sell off assets and jettison cap space to get out of trouble and acquire picks, you can fix that situation pretty quickly. Look at how quickly Indy turned around this year.

Of the teams in the AFC East, the Dolphins seem to be in the best position to become serious competitors to the Pats based on their cap space and having a good no-nonense coach in Joe Philbin. They also have the nucleus of a good defense. OTOH, they still have Jeff Ireland, and their ownership, while not in the Woody class, doesn't overly impress me. But they are probably in the best situation of the 3 teams in terms of becoming a serious threat. The Bills are second. The Jets are a complete mess right now, and their best plan would be to bring in some professionals with a no-nonense approach who would gut the team and get them out of cap hell and rebuild. In 3 years they could be competitive for the long term. But instead they'll remain mired in mediocrity believing they're only a few pieces away, and catering to the media circus that exists in New York.

 

[randomk1]

A week or so ago I posted a link to a spreadsheet about how all 32 teams' current rosters (including PS and players on IR) were constructed. It was notable that the Pats' had only 14 players from before 2009.

One other team really jumped out at me ... the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks hired Pete Carroll and Jon Schneider prior to the 2010 season, and they have almostly completely rebuilt their roster in 3 seasons. Only 7 players remain from the previous regime, and only 1 - Red Bryant - would be someone I consider an impact player. Max Unger, Leroy Hill and Brandon Mebane are all solid contributors. The rest was done in less than 3 years via trade, FA and the draft. It's a young team, with the nucleus under contract for some time. If I had to pick one team I think will be a long term competitor for the Pats as a SB contender for the next 3-5 years, it would be Seattle.

The point is that you can almost completely rebuild an NFL team from the scrap heap into a serious competitor in about 3 years. To do so you need a few things:

1. A good GM with an eye for talent and the ruthlessness to critically evaluate the roster.
2. A good coach, with a consistent plan and a no-nonense approach.
3. A consistent strategy between the GM and the coach regarding personnel selection and development.
4. Solid, reliable, ownership support.
5. A favorable cap/draft situation.

The last is helpful, but not essential. Seattle started 2010 with 2 top 15 picks. But a team can get out of salary cap hell by having the intestinal fortitude to jettison players and take a cap hit, being willing to be bad for a year or two in order to pay the price and get better. It may add a year on to your rebuilding plan, but if you are willing to bite the bullet and sell off assets and jettison cap space to get out of trouble and acquire picks, you can fix that situation pretty quickly. Look at how quickly Indy turned around this year.

The Seahawks have just been hitting in the draft lately. Where do you think Wilson,Sherman,Thomas,Wagner,Chancellor,Wright go in a redraft? All of them look like 1st round talents that they have gotten at a cheaper price.Plus pickups like Chris Clemons,Jason Jones,Browner that have all seemed to work out very well for them.

Obviously their coaching has been good and i've been really impressed by how they have brought Wilson along.

If Wilson and that offense improves they could definately be a contender.

I don't see them hanging with the big boys this year though.

 

[everlong]

1. A good GM with an eye for talent and the ruthlessness to critically evaluate the roster.
2. A good coach, with a consistent plan and a no-nonense approach.
3. A consistent strategy between the GM and the coach regarding personnel selection and development.
4. Solid, reliable, ownership support.
5. A favorable cap/draft situation.

You need a quarterback. Without one you can have everything else and fail. Bill Cowher consistently produced winners but couldn't win the big one until he had Ben. Winning with a Dilfer is an anomaly and you look at all those Ravens teams that were dominant on defense and they couldn't do squat. There's a reason why QBs wining the SB in the last decade have been Brady, Manning (both of them), Rogers, Brees and Ben. Brad Johnson is the last non-elite and that took an epcially great defense. I think the Ravens could have won another won with a Brad Johnson who was never great but was good. If a Wilson or Kaepernick break through this year we really won't know if that's an anomaly or not for another five years once we find out how good they really are.

 

[PatriotSeven]

Not entirely sold on Tannenhill yet. Was down, then up ,then down ,now he's doing ok again.

As a team Miami's getting better but I think they would have been better with Matt Moore back there this year and Tannenhill could have rode the bench one more year.

 

[borg]

This has been a strange week. Its been along time since there has been less interest in an upcoming opponent. Most of the talk this week has been about LAST week's game, and future playoff scenarios. It would seem that the only way that this team could lose this game would be is if the team takes the game as casually as the fans have.

1. The following eleven RBs all have 2 things in common.

1. Adrian Peterson
2. Marshawn Lynch
3. Alfred Morris
4. Chris Johnson
5. BJGE
6. Shawn Greene
7. Reggie Bush
8. Trent Richardson
9. Ahmad Bradshaw
10. Lashawn McCoy
11. Michael Turnner

They are all top 20 RB's in the league. Secondly they all have at least 3 fumbles. So I wonder if there are 11 other cities where their fans and media are all wringing their hands like old women keening about the critical fumbling problem their top RB has. The answer is NO!

The fact is that Steven Ridley is being unfairly persecuted for doing something that happens to EVERY RB. Are you aware that there are only THREE other RB who have 250 carries and LESS than 3 fumbles?....in the entire league. (Gore, Foster, & Martin) Are you aware that Gore had 5 fumbles in his 2nd year in the league, and Foster had 3 in the second year he had a significant number of carries? Are you aware that Adrian Peterson had NINE in his 2nd year?

So lets cut the crap and get real. We would all like Steven Ridely never to fumble the ball, but the fact remains that he will, just like every other RB in the league. What WE need to do is to stop acting like its the Mayan Apocalypse every time it happens (within reason).

Personally I think he can cut his fumbles in half by ridding himself of the his habit of turning his back to the LOS in in the hole. IIRC a couple of his fumbles have occurred when he puts himself in this position. But by and large his fumbles AREN'T being caused by him being careless with the ball. Bottom line: Ridley is a young player. He will probably get better at this as his career goes on For example Tom Brady had 36 fumbles in his first 3 years in the league.and 60 over his first 6 years, but just 11 over the last 3 years. So we might want to think twice about running him out of town

BTW- I think it should be noted that there hasn't been a lot of this Ridley Hating going on here, but its been rampant in the media and on talk radio where its a major topic.

2. The Pats offense got a lot of respect for their comeback last week, and rightfully so. However that same respect wasn't given to the defense. The Pats secondary is still being treated with disdain despite the fact it gave up only 216 yards through the air. The defense only gave up 5 out of 14 third down conversions, and were put into horrible situations by the offense for most of the game.

Much like the Houston game, the first SF drive was off the charts bad for the defense, but after that, I thought they played a much better game than they are being credited with. Granted it certainly wasn't a great job, and there were many examples where it has to improve. However, there were also many examples of good solid play. In fact more good than bad. I just can't get that 216 yd number out of my head. That could be a season low.

Am I the only one that saw a lot of good stuff on defense in that game. Despite this set back, I'm still confident that the defense is still on track to be “playoff quality” when the time comes (assuming we get there in relative good health)

3. I read something that caught my eye and is timely since our next opponent is going to be the Dolphins. Personally I think Joe Philbin has done a nice job this year. I think Tannyhill has shown enough to at least give Dolphins fans some hope, and beyond that I think they are slowly developing a solid roster, and a very good defense.

So when I saw this blurb somewhere, I took notice. This off season, the Dolphins will have 9 draft picks (including 5 in the first 3 rounds) and $45MM in cap space. That's why I think THEY are going to be the “next big threat” to our domination of the AFCE.

If Tannyhill can take another step forward. If they add some offensive weapons with all those picks and cap space. They are going to be a very dangerous team going forward. It will be interesting to watch them. Its been a LOOOONNNNNGGGG time since we've played a meaning series of games with the Phins. 2008 seems like a mirage. They had that great year and were gone....back into virtual oblivion.

I'm old enough to remember when it was the Dolphins and NOT the Jets who were our main rivals. Prior to the 90's the greatest win in Pats history was probably the playoff victory by the 85 Pats in Miami that sent us to the Superbowl. I put it in the top 5 even now. And one the best regular season wins of the superbowl era was the OT win in Miami (2001 or 2003, I can't remember)

So like Cassandra, I sound the warning....Beware the Phins.

4. A win and good heath is all I ask for tomorrow. I almost hope its an ugly one. While I want to win the last 2 games, I'd almost like for the Pats to fall out. of favor with the mediots and drop below the superbowl radar.

BTW- It wasn't very long ago when the Bears were considered the top team in the league. It only took about a month, and Lovie Smith is getting his resume up to date. Its a fickle league. It doesn't take long or much for the winds of fortune to change. Just as Steven Ridley

1) Regarding fumbles....Belichick cares
2) The D got toasted by another rookie QB....to the tune of 41......good stuff????
3) It would be nice for some competition in the division. Maybe the Pats would respond better if they got smacked in the face a few more times each season. The NFC West and their rookie QBs have rolled the finesse Pats 3 times this year
4) Why do you worry about mediots so much?

 

[Ian]

Thanks for the clarification. also, hopefully Kaepernick is getting ripped apart by the San Fran Media for having rock hands and messing up all those snaps.

LOL, no worries. You're clearly not alone, a lot of people thought the same thing. I'm just annoyed by a lot of the media this week who were ready to crucify him, it's a little ridiculous for a guy who really has had a tremendous season.

 

[patfanken]

1) Regarding fumbles....Belichick cares
2) The D got toasted by another rookie QB....to the tune of 41......good stuff????
3) It would be nice for some competition in the division. Maybe the Pats would respond better if they got smacked in the face a few more times each season. The NFC West and their rookie QBs have rolled the finesse Pats 3 times this year
4) Why do you worry about mediots so much?

1. Of course BB cares. One the key reasons for BB's long term success is that the Pats practice better ball security than their opponents. I never said that Ridley shouldn't strive to be better than he is in ball security. What is so annoying is the complete over reaction to his 4 fumbles. Its just so unnecessary. Calvin Johnson has 3 fumbles in just 110 touches. Is anyone calling for him to be sat down. Of course not. Why has Ridley been labelled so unfairly.

2. 41 points of which 24 were the direct results of offensive turnovers deep inside their territory. No one is saying the defense played great. What I said was they didn't play as badly as the score and media make it out to be. Cavalier remarks like the one you make ignore what actually happened

3, While it looks like the Pats will go unbeaten in the AFCE this season, it should be noted that despite the historic success the Pats have had the last 11 years, they have only gone unbeaten in the AFCE only one other time, and have had any number of very close games over the years with their division rivals. I don't envy those teams in the AFCN one bit.

4. Why to you worry about why I worry about the mediots? It bothers me because when you only get to play once a week, you are at the mercy of these fear mongers the entire time. They are relentless in creating issues and hysteria....and it bothers me. It should bother everyone.

3.

 

[Ring 6]

1) Regarding fumbles....Belichick cares
2) The D got toasted by another rookie QB....to the tune of 41......good stuff????
3) It would be nice for some competition in the division. Maybe the Pats would respond better if they got smacked in the face a few more times each season. The NFC West and their rookie QBs have rolled the finesse Pats 3 times this year
4) Why do you worry about mediots so much?

1) Belichick also understands 0 fumbles is a stupid place to set the bar, as the OP was trying to point out.
2) How many of the 41 came after turnovers that started drives deep in + territory? As the OP pointed out the D contributed heavily to the comeback. 55% complete and 216 passing yards is not toasted.
3) Ughhhh
4) Why do you worry about Patsfanken so much?

 

[Aßßynormal]

On the Miami Cap/Draft subject, it makes you wonder why they have so much Cap money available. Is the ownership of Miami stable enough to spend it all? I say that and I'm reminded of the new CBA rule on minimums (teams Must spend) and when they take affect. So, I think further analysis will be in order this off-season.

 

[borg]

1. Of course BB cares. One the key reasons for BB's long term success is that the Pats practice better ball security than their opponents. I never said that Ridley shouldn't strive to be better than he is in ball security. What is so annoying is the complete over reaction to his 4 fumbles. Its just so unnecessary. Calvin Johnson has 3 fumbles in just 110 touches. Is anyone calling for him to be sat down. Of course not. Why has Ridley been labelled so unfairly.

2. 41 points of which 24 were the direct results of offensive turnovers deep inside their territory. No one is saying the defense played great. What I said was they didn't play as badly as the score and media make it out to be. Cavalier remarks like the one you make ignore what actually happened

3, While it looks like the Pats will go unbeaten in the AFCE this season, it should be noted that despite the historic success the Pats have had the last 11 years, they have only gone unbeaten in the AFCE only one other time, and have had any number of very close games over the years with their division rivals. I don't envy those teams in the AFCN one bit.

4. Why to you worry about why I worry about the mediots? It bothers me because when you only get to play once a week, you are at the mercy of these fear mongers the entire time. They are relentless in creating issues and hysteria....and it bothers me. It should bother everyone.

3.

2) The only thing cavalier is your ability to add up points after turnovers....14.
and lets look at the fight the Pats put up on the 49er TD drives:
6 plays...63 yds TD
4 plays...80 yds TD
1 play ...3 yds TD
1 play ...27 yds TD
1 play ...38 yds TD
----------------------
13 plays.....211 yds...16 yds/play....35 points......is this what you call "not bad"

 

[Water Boy]

2. The Pats offense got a lot of respect for their comeback last week, and rightfully so. However that same respect wasn't given to the defense. The Pats secondary is still being treated with disdain despite the fact it gave up only 216 yards through the air. The defense only gave up 5 out of 14 third down conversions, and were put into horrible situations by the offense for most of the game.

Ken, I love your optimism, but I'm going to be a little bit of a negative nelly/devils advocate on the passing yards. How much of the low yards total was due to the fact that SF was working with a short field all night?