Week 16 'who to root for' thread

[Mountain_Commando]

With the playoff picture emerging fast and with so many possibilities, will one of our resident experts please do a 'who to root for' analysis for the next to weeks?

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

With the playoff picture emerging fast and with so many possibilities, will one of our resident experts please do a 'who to root for' analysis for the next to weeks?

only 2 teams...pats and browns

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

only 2 teams...

Chicks and America

 

[BelichickFan]

only 2 teams...pats and browns

Vikings.

A Vikings win over the Texans puts us a Colts home win vs. Texans away from passing the Texans if we win out.

 

[QB12]

Vikings.

A Vikings win over the Texans puts us a Colts home win vs. Texans away from passing the Texans if we win out.

And the Vikings have to win to hold onto the 6th seed.

 

[Sciz]

We definitely want the Pats to win and the Texans and Broncos to lose this week. Other than that, it comes down to who you want as the #6 seed and things like that.

 

[patriotsgoat2]

I can see the Broncos losing 1 of their next 2. Hopefully Cleveland gets it done.

And Houston could even lose to both the Vikings and Colts who need those games a lot.

 

[letekro]

I'll give my eyes to Stevie Wonder if the Broncos lose at home to the Browns or Chiefs.

 

[Mountain_Commando]

I'll take a stab at it:

DAL > NO:
Makes it harder for Giants to make the playoffs. Screw the idea of another Pats-Giants SB and retribution. I don't want that team to ever make the playoffs again. Depending on which Romo shows up, Dallas can put this game away fairly easily.

MIN > HOU:
Houston hasn't won the conference just yet. Vikings need this win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Not a gimme for HOU by any means.

KC > IND:
Highly unlikely, but having Luck out the playoffs can only be a good thing. Plus it would be karmic justice for the Dolts to miss the playoffs after their suck for luck campaign.

NJY > SD:
Because at this point, I'm beginning to feel sorry for the Jest. J/K Let them drop a few places in the draft. Maybe Greg McElroy will suck it up, Rexy will give Suckchez another chance, who'll do a decent enough job, prompting the Jets to consider promoting him back to starter. Hey, I can dream right? :singing:

WAS > PHI:
See number 1.

CIN > PIT:
Forget the squealers and Munchausen-berger. Need I say more?

CLE > DEN:
Playoff seeding and HFA. Would also like to see a damper on Goober's MVP chances.

NYG > BAL:
Short of the cosmic event, A Gints win makes the possibility of us playing at Baltimore more unlikely. Victor Cruz's receny actions kept me from rooting for the meteorite.

Don't really care about the rest.

 

[Kontradiction]

Minnesota, Cincy, Cleveland, and the Giants. Other than those games, I don't care who wins.

 

[BrainTrust66]

I can see the Broncos losing 1 of their next 2. Hopefully Cleveland gets it done.

And Houston could even lose to both the Vikings and Colts who need those games a lot.

Like Obi-Wan Kenobi was to to the Rebel Alliance, Cleveland is our "Only Hope" of Denver losing. KC has zero chance.

Would love to see the Vikings pull off the upset but feel that Houston will put 11 guys at the line of scrimmage and dare Ponder to beat them. OK, I exaggerate...9 guys

 

[Funktopus]

Just for fun, here's a scenario for backing in to the #1 seed...

NFL - Playoff Scenario Generator- Yahoo! Sports

I was playing around with the playoff scenario generator to see what scenarios exist to make the week 17 IND/HOU game meaningful for the Colts. Why? Because there are a lot of very likely looking scenarios that get the Colts into the playoffs even if they lose to HOU. And, of course, I'd like to see the Colts incented to beat Houston because it could lead to the Pats getting the #1 seed.

However, if CIN, IND and PIT are all at 9-7 at the end of week 17 the Colts will not make the playoffs due to the strength of schedule tie-breaker if many of the other games in the link below work out. So, they would need to beat HOU to make the playoffs with a 10-6 record.

NFL - Playoff Scenario Generator- Yahoo! Sports

It's interesting to see the effect of the strength of schedule tie breaker. For example, in the preceding link if DET beats ATL, IND will make the playoffs (even with a 9-7 record). Probably due to the Indy victory over Detroit in week 13?

 

[F0nSY]

Minnesota, Cincy, Cleveland, and the Giants. Other than those games, I don't care who wins.

I can't see a Browns win on sunday...

 

[Kontradiction]

I can't see a Browns win on sunday...

Nor can I, Spaniard, but I'll be rooting for it.

 

[F0nSY]

Nor can I, Spaniard, but I'll be rooting for it.

Me too, of course

 

[BrainTrust66]

I can't see a Browns win on sunday...

Agreed...it's not a likely scenario under any circumstances. It's still far, far more likely than a KC win in week 17!

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Just for fun, here's a scenario for backing in to the #1 seed...

NFL - Playoff Scenario Generator- Yahoo! Sports

I was playing around with the playoff scenario generator to see what scenarios exist to make the week 17 IND/HOU game meaningful for the Colts. Why? Because there are a lot of very likely looking scenarios that get the Colts into the playoffs even if they lose to HOU. And, of course, I'd like to see the Colts incented to beat Houston because it could lead to the Pats getting the #1 seed.

However, if CIN, IND and PIT are all at 9-7 at the end of week 17 the Colts will not make the playoffs due to the strength of schedule tie-breaker if many of the other games in the link below work out. So, they would need to beat HOU to make the playoffs with a 10-6 record.

NFL - Playoff Scenario Generator- Yahoo! Sports

It's interesting to see the effect of the strength of schedule tie breaker. For example, in the preceding link if DET beats ATL, IND will make the playoffs (even with a 9-7 record). Probably due to the Indy victory over Detroit in week 13?

according to that simulator,

12 games have to be decided in precisely one combination for indy to miss the playoffs:

1. Colts lose against KC
2. Colts lose against HOU
AND
3. PIT beats CIN AND
4. CIN beats BAL AND
5. SD beats NYJ AND
6. OAK beats CAR AND
7. NYJ beats BUF AND
8. KC beats DEN (!!!) AND
9. CHI beats DET AND
10. JAC beats TEN AND
11. NE beats MIA AND
12. PIT beats CLE


go to Vegas on that one... this site says 1% chance they don't, but that seems like a round-up error / overestimate. 12 coin flips, for example, gives a 0.024% chance of one particular sequence-specific outcome.

2012 NFL Post Season Probabilities

 

[Funktopus]

according to that simulator,

12 games have to be decided in precisely one combination for indy to miss the playoffs:

1. Colts lose against KC
2. Colts lose against HOU
AND
3. PIT beats CIN AND
4. CIN beats BAL AND
5. SD beats NYJ AND
6. OAK beats CAR AND
7. NYJ beats BUF AND
8. KC beats DEN (!!!) AND
9. CHI beats DET AND
10. JAC beats TEN AND
11. NE beats MIA AND
12. PIT beats CLE


go to Vegas on that one... this site says 1% chance they don't, but that seems like a round-up error / overestimate. 12 coin flips, for example, gives a 0.024% chance of one particular sequence-specific outcome.

2012 NFL Post Season Probabilities

Yikes, that looks unlikely. Maybe it would be enough to have just the week 16 games work out as desired. Then, since the IND/HOU week 17 game is at 1:00, the threat of the other combinations occuring would be enough to incent indy to try to beat houston.

 

[josh24]

Corcerning the AFC:

Patriots @ Jaguars

Colts @ Chiefs
Here is the situation: If IND loses this game, and CIN wins at Heinz Field, they will be almost forced to play their starters on Week 17 when they host the Texans. Even if this result (CIN over PIT) gives them a wild card spot, they would like to secure the 5th seed because playing @BAL is a LOT less dangerous than @NE/DEN, which is what is going to happen to them if CIN wins out & they lose out. My point is: if they play hard on Week 17, chances are they beat the Texans and we could sneak into the 1st seed.

Chargers @ Jets
Let them win out. It will give false hope that things are not as bad as they look. Also, they will drop several spots in the upcoming draft.

Bengals @ Steelers
Regardless of how they've played during the season, the Steelers will be more dangerous than the Bengals in the playoffs because of their experience.

Vikings @ Texans
Browns @ Broncos
Seeding is the most important reason here. The MVP is the 2nd reason. In the case of the CLE @ DEN game, if Peyton underperforms badly enough to make his team lose a potential 1st-round bye, his MVP chances get a huge hit. Also, if AP has a good game at Reliant, and a win, IMO he will get higher than Peyton on the MVP race. I don't care if AP wins it over Brady; he's a beast. I just don't want to see Peyton holding another undeserved MVP award.

Giants @ Ravens
I want BAL to secure the 4th seed in this one. I don't want to face them in a potential wild card game. Also, they will rest their starters, making it easier to CIN to beat them in Week 17, and if IND loses to KC.....(See above)

Corcerning the NFC:
The only thing I care about here is to see the Giants out.

Cowboys @ Saints
Redskins @ Eagles
Giants @ Ravens
PLUS:
- SEA wins 1 more game
OR
- SEA loses out, and CHI and/or MIN wins out

If all this happens, the Giants are OUT regardless of what happens on Week 17 with DAL@WAS & PHI@NYG.

However, I don't see many of these scenarios happening. KC over IND & CLE over DEN are almost impossible outcomes; the SD-NYJ & NYG-BAL will depend on who play less bad, so it could go either way; I don't see HOU dropping any other game; NO can surprise DAL, even when Romo & Bryant are outstanding.

BTW, I love the Patriots and this is my 1st post .