NFL Playoffs: How Much Does Home-Field Advantage Really Matter?

[dannydyn]

NFL Playoffs: How Much Does Home-Field Advantage Really Matter? | Bleacher Report

Click on link above for some more charting and other illustrations.

The Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers worked hard to finish the 2011 NFL regular season with a combined 28-4 record. They were clearly the two best teams in the NFC from September on. But this didn't stop a 9-7 New York Giants team from coming into their home stadiums and pulling off upset victories in the playoffs.

For Green Bay, it was a dose of reality. Aaron Rodgers and company had won their last 13 home games since a Week 6 loss the previous season to the Miami Dolphins. Overall, the Packers were winners of 19 of their last 20 at Lambeau going into that NFC divisional matchup. It was only Green Bay's fourth home playoff loss in franchise history, a span of 19 games.


Despite going 15-1, Aaron Rodgers and Co. couldn't hold off a 9-7 Giants team.

Meanwhile, San Francisco was coming off a stirring victory over the New Orleans Saints in the divisional round when New York arrived to play in a hostile environment at Candlestick Park. The Giants came away with a victory in overtime in the NFC Championship Game, handing San Francisco a rare home playoff loss.

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[dannydyn]

Continued....

for many, this seattle victory acted as vindication that the nfl didn't need to change its playoff rules. For others, it indicated that home-field advantage is absolutely enormous when it comes to the postseason. After all, there is arguably no way that the seahawks would have beaten the defending super bowl champs on the road.



Not dumb luck

since 2000, only the new england patriots (2003) and new orleans saints (2009) have gone on to win the super bowl after heading into the postseason as the no. 1 seed in their conference. As i mentioned before, five wild-card teams have hoisted the lombardi during that span.

Last seven super bowl champions
year champion playoff seed
2005 pittsburgh steelers no. 3 afc
2006 indianapolis colts no. 3 afc
2007 new york giants no. 5 nfc
2008 pittsburgh steelers no. 2 afc
2009 new orleans saints no. 1 nfc
2010 green bay packers no. 6 nfc
2011 new york giants no. 4 nfc

edited because copying & pasting entire article is forbidden due to copyright laws

 

[BadMoFo]

Didn't matter to the Giants. The best team should win regardless where they play.

 

[ivanvamp]

Interesting stuff. Usually people talk about the #1 or #1/#2 seed positions *as compared to the non-bye seeds* (#s 3-6). But that's not a fair comparison, because there are only 2 teams with byes in each conference compared to 4 teams without. Yes, the #1 and #2 seeds should be better, which is why they have the bye, but there are twice as many teams without a bye as those with them. That'll make the numbers more skewed.

I know this article was about home-field advantage and not the bye, but the bye plays into this.

Long story short, I think the Pats can win in any stadium in the league, so long as they play their game. I do think it'll be harder, because their up-tempo game works best when the crowd noise is lower, so trying to yell out those audibles when the crowd is going crazy just makes the job harder.

 

[dales804]

It is a matter of execution and health in the playoffs. Would I prefer the Patriots get a bye and host, at least, a second round game? Yes, but I don't think it's completely necessary. They are still playing at least one home game and need to execute on the field. If they can do that, they are capable of winning anywhere against anyone. It's tougher on the road, but it is doable.

Now, go Patriots!

 

[Kontradiction]

Didn't matter to the Giants. The best team should win regardless where they play.

Aye, but on the same token, it's mattered to the Patriots everytime we've either won or went to the Super Bowl.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Around the league as a whole, seeding and home field don't seem to matter so much. But in our own little world, perhaps due to a small sample size, it seems to matter a great deal to the Patriots under Belichick / Brady.

The only AFC team that makes me worry about the task of winning in their place this year is Denver, though. And there I can take solace in Peyton's 9-10 career playoff record.

What worries me more about the prospect of going to Houston is not that we wouldn't win, but that we'd be playing on that crappy trayed-grass field with sloppy seams, with a higher than needed chance that somebody will blow out a knee or get a high ankle sprain and Gronk our Super Bowl chances.

 

[dannydyn]

What worries me more about the prospect of going to Houston is not that we wouldn't win, but that we'd be playing on that crappy trayed-grass field with sloppy seams, with a higher than needed chance that somebody will blow out a knee or get a high ankle sprain and Gronk our Super Bowl chances.

Welker style.... circa 10'

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Around the league as a whole, seeding and home field don't seem to matter so much. But in our own little world, perhaps due to a small sample size, it seems to matter a great deal to the Patriots under Belichick / Brady.

The only AFC team that makes me worry about the task of winning in their place this year is Denver, though. And there I can take solace in Peyton's 9-10 career playoff record.

What worries me more about the prospect of going to Houston is not that we wouldn't win, but that we'd be playing on that crappy trayed-grass field with sloppy seams, with a higher than needed chance that somebody will blow out a knee or get a high ankle sprain and Gronk our Super Bowl chances.

Look denver is talented, but so far they have won 9 games in a row. Assuming they win their next 2, that's 11 games in a row heading into the post season. To beat the patriots they would have to win 12 in a row....that's a tall order.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Around the league as a whole, seeding and home field don't seem to matter so much. But in our own little world, perhaps due to a small sample size, it seems to matter a great deal to the Patriots under Belichick / Brady.

The only AFC team that makes me worry about the task of winning in their place this year is Denver, though. And there I can take solace in Peyton's 9-10 career playoff record.

What worries me more about the prospect of going to Houston is not that we wouldn't win, but that we'd be playing on that crappy trayed-grass field with sloppy seams, with a higher than needed chance that somebody will blow out a knee or get a high ankle sprain and Gronk our Super Bowl chances.

Im hoping that indy loses to houston in a couple of weeks and then indy beats houston n the divisional round. Its realy tough to beat the same team three times in a 2 month span....that way NE can host indy in the AFCCG.

 

[Dodie]

It's all about intensity and who wants it more. I like our chances specially if we have a healthy team in January.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

it matters a TON when it comes to the pats and their chances of making the SB..more than other teams..again..they have never made the SB lower than a 2 seed....

 

[Joker]

it's not the home field that matters so much as the ref crews assigned to work the games...if the Pats play Denver in Denver and Hochuli or Goodell's Fixer is the head ref, I'm loading up on the Bronocs.. I'd take Bill Leavy,John Parry, Riveron, Scott Green or Tony Corrente's crews ...if I see Mike Carey and his fixerphone, I just may turn off the game.

 

[brdmaverick]

Even if a home game in the divisional round only means a 50% chance of winning, I'll still gladly take this since it comes with a 100% chance of "winning" in the wild card round....and THAT is why it is so important.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Interesting article. if you just want to cut to the chase, here are the stats since the 12 team format started in 1990, as posted by someone else a few days ago. I forget who posted them, but I recall it was someone who is usually accurate. There were also two threads on this about a month ago where we hashed and rehashed these numbers:

To me, all that really matters is that if you win the SB, you win 100% of the Lombardi Trophy that year. It's really quite simple.

No. 1 seeds – 21 reached Super Bowl, 9 won
No. 2 seeds – 12 reached Super Bowl, 6 won
No. 3 seeds – 2 reached Super Bowl, 1 won
No. 4 seeds – 6 reached Super Bowl, 3 won
No. 5 seeds – 1 reached Super Bowl, 1 won
No. 6 seeds – 2 reached Super Bowl, 2 won

Restating the other poster's numbers and using the last 22 SB's as our "universe" for statistical purposes:

No. 1 seeds – 47.73% (21/44) chance of playing in the Super Bowl, 40.91% (9/22) chance of winning.
No. 2 seeds – 27.27% (12/44) chance of playing in the SB, 27.27% (6/22) chance of winning.
No. 3 seeds – 4.55% (2/44) chance of playing in the Super Bowl, 4.55% (1/22) chance of winning.
No. 4 seeds – 13.64% (6/44) chance of playing in the SB, 13.64% (3/22) chance of winning.
No. 5 seeds – 2.27% (1/44) chance of playing in the SB, 4.55% (1/22) chance of winning.
No. 6 seeds – 4.55% (2/44) chance of playing in the SB, 9.09% (2/22) chance of winning.

In words:

33 of the 44 available berths in the SB over the last 22 seasons went to the number 1 and 2 seeds. However, while the 1 or 2 seed has won 15 of these 22 SB's, less than 50% of these teams won the SB when they got there. Half empty or half full? You decide.

At the other end of the spectrum, only three teams seeded number five or six made it to the big game, but they all won when they got there. Half empty or half full? You decide.

Of the teams in the middle (probably relevant to the Pats this year), eight of the available berths went to the 3 and 4 seeds and four of these teams won the big game. Half empty or half full? You decide.