Lombardi: 49ers "toughest challenge" for Pats

[Bhelmet]

It would not surprise me one bit if SF gives CK a series or two (perhaps a quarter) and depending upon his results they switch to Smith - thinking that it will force the Pats to make adjustments and take them out of their game plan a bit. The 9ers need this game more and I expect some unexpected wrinkles. I may be wrong, but hey, it wouldn't be the first time.

 

[Chopblock CB]

It would not surprise me one bit if SF gives CK a series or two (perhaps a quarter) and depending upon his results they switch to Smith - thinking that it will force the Pats to make adjustments and take them out of their game plan a bit. The 9ers need this game more and I expect some unexpected wrinkles. I may be wrong, but hey, it wouldn't be the first time.

Agreed..as mentioned..I wouldn't be surprised to see both QB's in at different times...and odds are they prepped for that

 

[Silver Blue&Red]

I see this as a 50/50 chance game, like 90% of Pats games. My worries of the secondary have eased. I think if the WR's can get open fast enuff for TB to get a quick release they can help beat the sack. Hopefully TB is on target and not throwing to thier ankles. It seems if he does it continues thru out the game. If the no huddle can tire thier D like the Texans (Watt looked gassed in 1st qtr) , they have a good chance. Thats my simple, obvious take on it , but thats all I got.

 

[CandlestickBum]

I know its become fashionable to dump on Lombardi, but I'm surprised no one has commented on the 2 incredibly insightful points he made that I haven't heard from anyone else all week.

1. That, while the Niners want to let you have the "illusion" of a balanced offense. Their goal is to run the ball, and Kaepernick allows them to do that so much better.

2. Their OL ranks 28th in holding calls, and 28th in sacks allowed. That's not a coincidence. As good as they are in the run game,. that's how bad an OL they are in the pass game. Quite simply they have trouble when they drop back and pass. And if they have to do it more than 30 tiimes, on Sunday, they will be in trouble.

Look at the 4 games Kaepernick has started. In the 3 wins he never had to throw the ball more than 25 times. The only times he's thrown the ball over 30 times (and it was only 32) was in the one loss he had.....and even then he only had 206 yds. In fact he's never had more than 250 yds in any start. Hell, that used to be a good half for a lot of QB's going against the Pats secondary in "the bad old days" .

No Kaepernick is in there because he adds another running dimension to an already great running attack. He got the job because the OL can't pass block and he's capable of ripping off 50+ yd runs on a regular basis Plus it doesn't hurt that he seems to be fairly accurate in the short game, and takes good care of the ball (so far)

To me that's great coaching by Harbaugh to recognize the strengths and limitations of his team. It makes his switching QB's make much more sense. Kaepernick looks like he always was the QB of the future for the Niners, and eventually they could fix the flaws in the offense and he could develop into a great one. But for tomorrow night....I'm betting BB will have a great plan for him. Whether the players can execute it is another story. It would be a horrible indictment of the Pats secondary if Kaepernick rips off a 300+ yd passing game. It would be a big step back

In any event those are 2 great insights by Lombari, which I haven't heard anywhere else. As much as I hate to give D&C a click, it was worth the listen

Also, because he has one of the strongest arms in the league. If Brady, Romo, or Brees is down by 17 points at the start of the 4th quarter, they are still a major threat because they can burn you on one completed pass. Smith, not so much,

Kaepernick might not have the fineness of Brady or Brees, but I suspect he can throw the ball even harder than they can, and if it comes to a desperate situation where the 49ers get seriously behind (like against the Giants), Kaepernick at least has a realistic potential of throwing it 50 yards down the field to a receiver like Moss, or burning through the remaining defensive line and running for a first down and a stopped clock if they are not.

Sure, Alex Smith could do that too. He was fast on his feet and he has made a few long passes when it mattered, and he is probably still the better quarterback right now, but you don't see the potential to come from behind with him that you do with Kaepernick, due to Kaepernick's lightning-fast foot speed and He-man strong arm.

But yeah, the 49ers plan is to run the ball as much as possible, but both Smith and Kapernick have an excellent passer rating (Smith is tied for first with RGIII and Brady for 2012), and with Crabtree, Moss, Manningham, great RBs, and even tackles that receive the pass occasionally, it is not like it was back in the bad old days of Singleterry, or even last year during the NFC championships where Crabtree could not get open at all.

Also, with the Patriots pass defense being one of the worst in the league this year, I think that Harbaugh is at least going to try to burn the Patriots defense on the pass, like he did to NY in the regular season in 2011. Kaepernick certainly has the arm to put up some 30 yard+ pass and hope that Moss is talented enough to get under it, especially when the 49ers many RBs can regularly pick up 4-6 yards on a first down rush.

It should be an interesting game, especially since the weather calls for it to be cold, rainy, and generally miserable, a great defensive powerhouse against a great offensive powerhouse in the mud. Almost a repeat of the NFC championship game last year.

 

[Bhelmet]

both Smith and Kapernick have an excellent passer rating (Smith is tied for first with RGIII and Brady for 2012)

And Kapernick's body of work includes? Compared to Smith? Anyone could have an excellent passer rating when they have thrown 103 passes in 4 games. Talk about comparing arses to elbows. I hope CK has 25-30 attempts (hopefully more) in this game b/c that means BB's plan to force CK to win this game with his arm has worked. Good luck with that one - even against this secondary - which many still think is lame.

 

[CandlestickBum]

And Kapernick's body of work includes? Compared to Smith? Anyone could have an excellent passer rating when they have thrown 103 passes in 4 games. Talk about comparing arses to elbows. I hope CK has 25-30 attempts (hopefully more) in this game b/c that means BB's plan to force CK to win this game with his arm has worked. Good luck with that one - even against this secondary - which many still think is lame.

He has actually been playing all 2012 regular season, although he has only been on field for the majority of five games, with him being used primarily as an option QB to rush or to put up long passes a play or two per quarter before Smith got hurt, with an overall passer rating for 2012 that I think would put him in the top 8-10 QBs in the league.

Still, not enough games to really say for sure that it is not a fluke, but he had his best starting game of the season against Chicago, which is considered to be one of the best defenses in the NLF. Of course, it could be a fluke, but I don't think Harbaugh would have started him if he did not see the potential for CK to become a better passer than Smith, which unlike years past, is actually quite a complement given that Smith leads the league in yards per passing attempt.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

It would not surprise me one bit if SF gives CK a series or two (perhaps a quarter) and depending upon his results they switch to Smith - thinking that it will force the Pats to make adjustments and take them out of their game plan a bit. The 9ers need this game more and I expect some unexpected wrinkles. I may be wrong, but hey, it wouldn't be the first time.

I doubt it. Harbaugh made a bold, very conspicuous decision (right or wrong) in benching Smith and going with CK. If he pulls CK in a big game like this, he has sent a message that his judgement is bad as well as CK is not ready for prime time. Further, benching CK would risk hurting his very inexperienced ego (a starting QB is the most fan/media pressure position in all of sports). The so called QB of the future has to play with the belief he will be pulled anytime he makes mistakes.

Add to this I believe Smith is owed a big payment at the end of the season. It is very unlikely he will be with the 9ers next season. To bring him back in, have him perform really well and win this big game is to send the message to the team/fan base that Smith is needed to be an elite team - that CK isn't a top starting level QB.

If the 9ers stay close then CK has done well enough (or not poorly enough) to get the chance to lead them to victory. If he performs very poorly, the game may be out of reach and there is no reason not to let CK gain the big game experience. IMHO there just isn't a big window for why Harbaugh would pull CK.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

manningham is out i guess helps us

 

[whoartthou]

I haven't really caught any niner games with kapernick as the qb. How strong of an arm does he really have? Is he accurate?

 

[goheels22002]

Of course, it could be a fluke, but I don't think Harbaugh would have started him if he did not see the potential for CK to become a better passer than Smith, which unlike years past, is actually quite a complement given that Smith leads the league in yards per passing attempt.

Good luck tomorrow night with these two QBs. 1st, Alex Smith is 3rd, not 1st in yards per pass attempt. Too bad he's also got 2,100 fewer yards this season than Tom Brady.

We are not impressed.

 

[CandlestickBum]

I haven't really caught any niner games with kapernick as the qb. How strong of an arm does he really have? Is he accurate?

He was a pitcher in high school with a 94 MPH fastball and despite not playing in college, he was picked in the MLB draft by the Chicago Cubs, albeit in one of the later rounds, but declined to finish playing football his senior year. Randy Moss complained that he threw the football so hard the he dislocated his finger and suffered bruising on the ribs. He has something like a 70% pass completion rate, but it is only his second year in the NFL and he has only started four games.

If the NFL thing doesn't work out for him, he might be able to play for the A's or the Giants.

He's not a very good game manager, but athletically speaking, he might be the best starting Quarterback in the league. Imagine Tebow if Tebow was bigger, stronger, and had a 94 MPH fastball.

If you haven't seen him play, watch this: EdEs 2011 #07 Colin Kaepernick Highlights.wmv - YouTube

He might not be a better QB than Smith at this point, but he certainly is a lot more exciting to watch.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

I haven't really caught any niner games with kapernick as the qb. How strong of an arm does he really have? Is he accurate?

I live in the Bay Area so I am force fed the 9ers. I can say this without hesitation, turn off the TV, don't listen to the media, Ck is a definite ?. He just has not had enough games to accurately state what he is capable of doing consistently. However, if I was to judge him on what little he has done as a starter (I don't count his part time appearances as that is not a good measuring gauge): (a) I have been semi impressed with his accuracy. If his first read is open, he can hit him. (b) He is VERY impressive in his ability to make tacklers miss and/or simply outrun the tacklers once he has a bit of open field. CK just might be (maybe) the most impressive runner to ever play the QB spot. (c) On his ability to read the coverage and make the right decisions, I am not impressed. I'm not unimpressed on that point but I haven't seen much to suggest he can read coverage and do his check downs to allow him to 'pick apart' defenses. (d) There is almost nothing to predict how he will respond to adversity. That largely remains an unknown.

The summary of CK (again based on insufficient data) IMHO: Take away what he can do to you with his feet and the 9ers will not put up a lot of points unless the D sucks balls and are leaving receivers too open. The item that gives me apprehension is the uncertainty. He could end up looking like Joe Montana or Joe Montegna tomorrow. With Alex Smith you knew exactly what you were getting on a consistent basis. With CK it's a wait and see what he will be on a consistent basis.