Hypothetical #2: What if Brady plays another 5-6 years?

[ctpatsfan77]

Here's my other major scenario:

(1) Brady plans to play another 5-6 years.

(2) At a minimum, he gets one more extension from the Patriots past 2014. Let's say, for the sake of argument, that he is extended through 2017 or 2018 (your choice).

(3) That said, you are not required to assume that Brady actually finishes out the contract (if you prefer to consider that possibility).

(4) Mallett will not wait that long for a chance to start. Either he's traded or signs elsewhere.

So how would you find the new starter in that case? Would you risk pulling a 2011 Colts, if such a scenario were plausible?

 

[mayoclinic]

No offense, but I find these hypotheticals rather limited in value.

There is no evidence right now that TFB can't continue playing at a HOF level for some time. Brett Favre, John Elway and Joe Montana clearly showed deterioration in their game after age 35. Peyton Manning had a potentially career-threatening injury with a huge contract that complicated things. Unless injury or deterioration in play change things, or he chooses to walk away, Brady will be the QB of the Patriots. That may be for 2, 3, 5 or more years. As of right now, Brady says he wants to play for quite some time, and there is no reason to doubt him. The FO will monitor the situation closely, and adjust their plans. Right now Ryan Mallett is the backup plan, and I doubt that will continue if Brady continues to play at his current level.

Brady knows what a special thing he has going with the Pats. The Pats know what a special thing they have with Brady. No one's going to screw it up as long as it can keep going.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

No offense, but I find these hypotheticals rather limited in value.

There is no evidence right now that TFB can't continue playing at a HOF level for some time. Brett Favre, John Elway and Joe Montana clearly showed deterioration in their game after age 35. Peyton Manning had a potentially career-threatening injury with a huge contract that complicated things. Unless injury or deterioration in play change things, or he chooses to walk away, Brady will be the QB of the Patriots. That may be for 2, 3, 5 or more years. As of right now, Brady says he wants to play for quite some time, and there is no reason to doubt him. The FO will monitor the situation closely, and adjust their plans. Right now Ryan Mallett is the backup plan, and I doubt that will continue if Brady continues to play at his current level.

Brady knows what a special thing he has going with the Pats. The Pats know what a special thing they have with Brady. No one's going to screw it up as long as it can keep going.

OK: let me just put it slightly differently.

At some point, the Patriots are going to have to replace TFB. If that's far enough in the future that we can say Mallett's not the obvious answer, then what would be your plan for replacing him?

 

[mayoclinic]

OK: let me just put it slightly differently.

At some point, the Patriots are going to have to replace TFB. If that's far enough in the future that we can say Mallett's not the obvious answer, then what would be your plan for replacing him?

I would always keep a backup option in place. Right now it's Mallett. He's in year 2 of a 4 year contract. Assuming that Brady looks to keep going past 2014, I'd probably aim at drafting AJ McCarron in 2014 and grooming him as the next backup/possible successor. Mallett would either be traded or would move on in FA after 2014, with the Pats hopefully getting at least a comp pick. Even if they didn't, they would have had a backup for 4 years. By 2015 hopefully McCarron would be ready to be the backup. If Brady keeps on going beyond 2017 or so, another backup option would have to be drafted. It's too far away to identify who that would be. But since TB's current deal expires after 2014, in a year or so we should know more: if Brady really wants to keep playing he'll likely restructure and extend for at least a couple more years, and given his current level of play, I can't imagine that the team wouldn't want to accomodate him.

 

[Snake Eyes]

OK: let me just put it slightly differently.

At some point, the Patriots are going to have to replace TFB. If that's far enough in the future that we can say Mallett's not the obvious answer, then what would be your plan for replacing him?

So long as TFB is healthy, productive, and expresses interest in continuing to play, then we keep grabbing mid-late round QBs and grooming them to take over. Ideally we showcase them in blowouts and trade them for loot if the situation warrants it.

 

[manxman2601]

Personally I think there's a great deal of value in these hypotheticals. Brady's exit at some stage is a reality too many Pats fans don't want to face up too.

Here's my radical and no doubt flame-able option:

Give Brady another year on his new contract and then if the value is there, trade him. The Bengals got a first and two seconds for Carson Palmer. The 49'ers got a 1st overall for a 36 year old Joe Montana. Providing the haul is good enough, that would set up the team with good prospects to help smooth what would already be a difficult transition to a Brady-less future.

option 2: Go the Green Bay Packers/ Aaron Rodgers route and find the guy regardless of whether it involves sacrificing a high pick well before it's really needed. Option 2 and option 1 are not mutually exclusive.

Option 3: this is basically the same as what I suggested in the other scenario of yours, ie: Draft a QB every year until you find the one you want to become your new franchise guy.


The one route it would be absolutely wrong to go down is to bury one's head in the sand and wait until the very last minute and start desperately trying to acquire a new QB because Brady suddenly became much worse, decided to retire or started suffering from serious injuries on too regular a basis.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Personally I think there's a great deal of value in these hypotheticals. Brady's exit at some stage is a reality too many Pats fans don't want to face up too.

I think that it's an interesting issue myself. . . . and one that begs the question of how do you do it without becoming the 2011 Colts?

 

[mayoclinic]

Personally I think there's a great deal of value in these hypotheticals. Brady's exit at some stage is a reality too many Pats fans don't want to face up too.

I think that it's an interesting issue myself. . . . and one that begs the question of how do you do it without becoming the 2011 Colts?

The 2011 Colts were an extreme case. First, because they had 0 backup behind Manning, and made no preparations even when Manning had multiple neck issues, and were caught with their pants down. Second, because they ended up winning the "suck for Luck" lottery and got the best QB prospect in the past decade to build around. Neither of those is likely to happen to the Pats. We've already showed that we can lose Brady fora season and go 11-5 instead of 2-14. If (God forbid) the Pats played next season without Brady I bet they would go 9-7 or better, and probably better. But I doubt they would be SB contenders, and that's what's key. The question is how man SBs we have left with Brady at the helm.

Here's my radical and no doubt flame-able option:

Give Brady another year on his new contract and then if the value is there, trade him. The Bengals got a first and two seconds for Carson Palmer. The 49'ers got a 1st overall for a 36 year old Joe Montana. Providing the haul is good enough, that would set up the team with good prospects to help smooth what would already be a difficult transition to a Brady-less future.

option 2: Go the Green Bay Packers/ Aaron Rodgers route and find the guy regardless of whether it involves sacrificing a high pick well before it's really needed. Option 2 and option 1 are not mutually exclusive.

Option 3: this is basically the same as what I suggested in the other scenario of yours, ie: Draft a QB every year until you find the one you want to become your new franchise guy.

The 49ers had the luxury of already having Steve Young in place when they traded Montana. Of your options, I favor #2 and #3. The question with #2 is figuring out how long Brady has left. The Packers drafter Rogers when there were longer contracts for rookies, and they sat him for 3 years before deciding (correctly) to move on from Favre. It doesn't make sense to spend a high pick on a QB too early.

The one route it would be absolutely wrong to go down is to bury one's head in the sand and wait until the very last minute and start desperately trying to acquire a new QB because Brady suddenly became much worse, decided to retire or started suffering from serious injuries on too regular a basis.

This is agree with 100%. And I'm fairly confident that won't happen.

 

[manxman2601]

It's not the Colts scenario that worries me, it's the Dolphins. Transitioning from one mediocre QB to another for more than two decades.

 

[stelfans]

If Brady retired today would you be confident that Mallett could replace him?

Regardless of when he retires we will always have someone behind him.
Now the perfect replacement? That could take years before it happens because Brady is one of the best ever. We will always look back.

Im not worried at all.

 

[mayoclinic]

Now the perfect replacement? That could take years before it happens because Brady is one of the best ever. We will always look back.

TB is arguably the greatest of all time. Therefore, whoever comes after him will not likely be at the same level.

 

[Jimke]

TB is arguably the greatest of all time. Therefore, whoever comes acer him will not likely be at the same level.

You make good sense. Just sit back and enjoy watching Brady play
until his career with the Pats ends.

I am an old timer who goes back to the 1960 season. After watching
a lot of lousy teams, it is heaven to me to worry about whether we
will win another Superbowl. I used to be satisfied with a handful of wins.

 

[patsfaninpa]

You make good sense. Just sit back and enjoy watching Brady play
until his career with the Pats ends.

I am an old timer who goes back to the 1960 season. After watching
a lot of lousy teams, it is heaven to me to worry about whether we
will win another Superbowl. I used to be satisfied with a handful of wins.

I just wanted to win the division and beat Shula at least once. These are our golden years. As Pats fans that is. One of the top 2-3 coaches in league history. And, one of the top 2-3 qb's in league history.

 

[patfanken]

What happened to guys like Montana and Elway after 35 is really not relevant today, quite frankly. The game has changed. The protection provided both QBs and receivers will lengthen the effectiveness of QB's like Tom Brady. Especially Brady, His lack of "athletic ability" is actually an advantage. His needs only to continue within that 5 yd box of the "pocket". There should be no dramatic loss of arm strength either. Farve was still throwing bullets into his 40's. The only question of deterioration the Pats should be worried about is Brady's competitive desire. Because if IT is maintains its current high level, Brady could easily maintain a high level of play for another 5 years. Which would mean that his eventual replacement is still in HS.

In an ideal world, when Brady is ready to retire, the defense we are building will have matured into a dominant one, and the next Patriot QB will not have to be "Tom Brady" to succeed here.

 

[Stilla]

I would think we would want to carry 3 QBs prior to entering mallets final contract year, and continue holding 3 until TB retires. We acquire a third QB next season.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

If anything happens to Brady, we are faced with a difficult situation with Mallet starting and an X factor as the backup. During the season there just are not enough snaps in practice for the young guys.

Can Mallet duplicate a Cassel like 2008 season if Brady goes down?

 

[patsfaninpa]

If anything happens to Brady, we are faced with a difficult situation with Mallet starting and an X factor as the backup. During the season there just are not enough snaps in practice for the young guys.

Can Mallet duplicate a Cassel like 2008 season if Brady goes down?

I think if we got him a downfield threat he could. Cassel had Randy Moss. Not saying we need Larry Fitzgerald. But, if we him a deep threat. I think he has a fighting chance. Probably allows you to sign an impact defensive player too because of lower salary for a few years. I'm curious to see him play a regular season half or so. We win next three. Baltimore beats Denver but loses to Giants. We'd have the 2nd seed and a bye locked up headed into that last game against Miami. I think he'd struggle a little with our current offense and lack of experience.

Right now this offense is made to fit a veteran, high pct passer. A guy like Rich Gannon in his Oakland years would be very good in our offense.

 

[patfanken]

Cassell is interesting because of the success he had in 2008. Don't forget he had 2 CONSECUTIVE 400 yd passing games that year. IIRC that's something TB had never done to that point. Clearly Josh McDaniels got the most out of Matt Cassell. Certainly more than any of his other coaches. Lets assume that at some point the Pats trade Mallet in order to retrieve some of his draft value. Cassel would make a good back up because he's proven he can be productive in this offensive system, and would come at a lower price. THEN 3 or 4 years from now you draft the QB who will ultimately replace Brady, and maybe give him a year on the bench backing up Cassell for a year.

Cassell, I think would prove to be a far more effective QB here in Foxboro than he was in KC But lets be certain of one thing. Ryan Mallet, barring a Brady injury, is NEVER going to start a game for the NE Patriots.....at least under his rookie contract.

 

[Avenger]

Weiss certainly got at least a much out of Cassel as McDaniels

 

[mayoclinic]

Cassell is interesting because of the success he had in 2008. Don't forget he had 2 CONSECUTIVE 400 yd passing games that year. IIRC that's something TB had never done to that point. Clearly Josh McDaniels got the most out of Matt Cassell. Certainly more than any of his other coaches. Lets assume that at some point the Pats trade Mallet in order to retrieve some of his draft value. Cassel would make a good back up because he's proven he can be productive in this offensive system, and would come at a lower price. THEN 3 or 4 years from now you draft the QB who will ultimately replace Brady, and maybe give him a year on the bench backing up Cassell for a year.

Cassell, I think would prove to be a far more effective QB here in Foxboro than he was in KC But lets be certain of one thing. Ryan Mallet, barring a Brady injury, is NEVER going to start a game for the NE Patriots.....at least under his rookie contract.

You raise an interesting scenario. KC will almost certainly part ways with Cassel after this season and he'll be a FA. He's due $7.5M in 2013, and there's no way they'll keep him. I can't see him getting a starting gig anywhere. Re-signing with the Pats to be re-united with BB and Josh McDaniels as Brady's backup might not be a bad move.

The question is, would Ryan Mallett have any trade value at this point in his career? Teams are desperate for QBs, and this draft class is terribly weak. Ryan Mallett has 2 years of seasoning under BB and TB. He's more likely to be ready to step in and start than most of the rookies in this draft - there aren't any Andrew Luck and RGIII talents out there.

It's pure speculation and a huge "if", but if someone wanted to make a decent offer for Mallett and Cassell were available in free agency, re-signing Cassell could make Mallett expendable for 2013. The Pats could then pick up someone like AJ McCarron in 2014.

What compensation they might get is another question (I wonder if they could do something with some mid round picks in 2013 and a conditional 2014 pick, depending on Mallett's performance). But I think that unless the Pats believe that Brady is done with the team after 2014, the odds are that they won't get anything for Mallett beyond a Brady insurance policy, anyway. And Cassell's already proven he can provide that.