Brady's Passing Weakness

[robbomango]

It's partly a smurf thing...

 

[BTTA]

It won't matter if he's four steps ahead of the secondary. And if he's not, it is because they've over committed to him due to his speed, with a safety, which just makes me giggle about opening up the middle of the field more.

I'd forgotten all about Demps. What does a defense do when he lines up in the backfield, then motions out to the end? You can't just move a linebacker out there to cover him.

 

[Kontradiction]

Brady seems to miss most every one.

The Pats don't have the speedsters to use the long ball.

Clearly, for this reason, they don't practice it much any more.

I'm OK with the #1 offense playing that way.

The receivers are part of the problem as well. Our fastest straight line receiver is Edelman.

 

[jnug]

JE is the fastest of them but he is not a great route runner. JE specializes in YAC and is the best the Pats have in that regard. If he gets a 40 yard pass it will be a 15 yard toss followed by a 25 yard run.

 

[robbomango]

Demps is like 4'2, I don't think he'll be getting many deep balls thrown his way.

4'2? he'll fit right in...:rocker:

 

[PP2]

The receivers are part of the problem as well. Our fastest straight line receiver is Edelman.

It's actually Slater who's our fastest straight line WR.

 

[patsfan13]

Well the question doesn't appear to be arm strength per se, since most of his misses on the long ball are overthrows. IMO there is a conscious effort to put the ball where ONLY a Pats can get it. Ball Security >> forcing a 'perfect' ball.

A long pass gives the DB more time to recover, the shirt medium pass = less recovery time to the ball is zipped into a smaller window.

The 3 INT's is a very important stat to BB.

 

[Kontradiction]

It's actually Slater who's our fastest straight line WR.

Was counting him as more of a safety/STer.

 

[RodThePat]

It won't matter if he's four steps ahead of the secondary. And if he's not, it is because they've over committed to him due to his speed, with a safety, which just makes me giggle about opening up the middle of the field more.

I'd forgotten all about Demps. What does a defense do when he lines up in the backfield, then motions out to the end? You can't just move a linebacker out there to cover him.

It does matter. Hitting a 5'8 guy in stride is MUCH more difficult than hitting a 6'3 one. The different in catch radius is enormous, and what could be a completion right into the outstretched arms of a tall receiver, is an overthrow for a short one, even if they're wide open. Case in point, Brady made a terrible throw to a wide open Hernandez on Thursday, but Aaron is just tall enough to reach his arm up, touch the ball, and then corral it, leading to a big gain. Had that throw gone Edelman's direction, it's an incompletion. The Welker drop/poor throw in the SuperBowl would also have been a much easier catch had the target been 6'0 or taller. The Patriots have opted to go with quick, crafty, not necessarily speedy, WRs who can work in space. That's the right approach, because it suits the strengths of Brady and the offensive system they run. But, on the downside, it also makes it much more difficult to hit intermediate/deep throws.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Well the question doesn't appear to be arm strength per se, since most of his misses on the long ball are overthrows. IMO there is a conscious effort to put the ball where ONLY a Pats can get it. Ball Security >> forcing a 'perfect' ball.

A long pass gives the DB more time to recover, the shirt medium pass = less recovery time to the ball is zipped into a smaller window.

The 3 INT's is a very important stat to BB.

.....and because it takes a 1/2 second or so longer to allow the WR to get downfield, a deep ball makes TB more prone to a big hit.

I'd like to see a few more big plays but oh well...

 

[shmessy]

It does matter. Hitting a 5'8 guy in stride is MUCH more difficult than hitting a 6'3 one. The different in catch radius is enormous, and what could be a completion right into the outstretched arms of a tall receiver, is an overthrow for a short one, even if they're wide open. Case in point, Brady made a terrible throw to a wide open Hernandez on Thursday, but Aaron is just tall enough to reach his arm up, touch the ball, and then corral it, leading to a big gain. Had that throw gone Edelman's direction, it's an incompletion. The Welker drop/poor throw in the SuperBowl would also have been a much easier catch had the target been 6'0 or taller. The Patriots have opted to go with quick, crafty, not necessarily speedy, WRs who can work in space. That's the right approach, because it suits the strengths of Brady and the offensive system they run. But, on the downside, it also makes it much more difficult to hit intermediate/deep throws.

Exactly.

Flacco has more deep pass completions because he's throwing to a freaking basketball team of WR's out there.

How many times per game do we see that big lump just heave it and pray - - and those guys come down with it.

To the other side of the coin - - Gronk catches a lot of throws that other TE's would never ever see.

 

[everlong]

The ball to Edelman was 30+ yards in the air and right on the hash mark. While not technically outside that was a beautiful deep throw. Welker, Lloyd and Gronk all have multiple deep ball drops this year. Llloyd dropped a 30 yard in cut that I could have caught. Gronk stumbled and had one go off his hands that if he's running clean it's a TD. Lloyd turned the wrong way and had to turn again or another is a TD.

It's not like other than Moss he's been given a Vincent Jackson, Mike Wallace or Jordy Nelson. Nelson would be sick in this offense.

 

[Tunescribe]

When you've got players like Vereen taking outlet passes 83 yards and Gronk going down the middle for 40, I'm not too worried about needing to hit Lloyd long down the sideline.

 

[RodThePat]

When you've got players like Vereen taking outlet passes 83 yards and Gronk going down the middle for 40, I'm not too worried about needing to hit Lloyd long down the sideline.

Fun fact: Gronk ran a 4.68 40 at the combine. Lloyd ran a 4.62, 10 years ago.

 

[jnug]

Those intermediate throws get tougher for Brady to complete when he does not have Gronk in the mix. Aaron does very well with Gronk on the field and even does pretty well without him. However nobody goes up and gets the ball the way Gronk does. When he is not an option those little gnats that make up the bulk if the Pats receiver corp get harder to find.

Rarely causes the Pats much concern in the regular season but can be a problem in the post season. Pats running game seems to have improved substantially this year. That should make a huge difference. Hoping that the Pats begin to trust it more than they do at present as that appears to be the biggest issue with their run game.

Pats gashed the Jets left and right with the run on Thursday but starting from their own two yard line still preferred to try to pass their way out of that hole and got burned for it AGAIN. Nobody is going to let Brady get sacked in that situation and any penalty on the O-line is an automatic safety which means they give up two points and the ball. Against a better team, two points and sending your defense right back out on the field with the opponent in good field position can be a train wreck.

When they got all the way down to the Jets 2 yard line having gashed them with running plays for the whole drive, the Pats abandoned it again going to the pass which failed and eventually went to the Brady QB sneak....one of the scariest plays in the play book this time of year.

 

[nabwong]

Lol...

RGIII is 1 for 12 with 1 TD on passes thrown greater than 30 yards.

Brady is 3 for 12 with 1 TD on passes thrown greater than 30 yards.

Its the receivers. Given the lack of a receiver with true down field capabilities Brady can't risk throwing it short, which is a problem he didn't have with Moss. He could throw it a little short and Moss could go up and get it.

I can't say the stats back it up. Just like Mark Sanchez's passer rating last thursday.

 

[Bonzo]

Not that Brady's throws have been perfect, but I think this can more accurately be chalked up to an ultra-conservative philosophy about hoisting the deep ball. There's a reason he's only tossed up only three picks all year.

By contrast, it seems that other guys -- Josh Freeman and RGIII (and Eli, earlier in the year) spring to mind -- have practically made a living this season by throwing up these jump balls down the sideline and trusting their guys to make a play on it. But the Pats don't really need to rely on that stuff to move the ball. Without an honest deep threat, I just think Brady (and probably the coaching staff as well) are happier minimizing their risk on these types of plays.

 

[Deus Irae]

Brady's deep ball has been fine, and it continues to be fine.

 

[PP2]

Was counting him as more of a safety/STer.

Yes primarily, but WR is his position.

 

[jnug]

I flat forgot about Slater.