Second Half of Season Turnover Differential Really 56-5?

[Brady'sButtBoy]

I saw it on a post game show and haven't been able to believe the number! According to the graphic, in the time the Pats have gone 19-0 in the second half of the last 3 seasons, they created 56 turnovers and lost the ball only 5 times themselves. If accurate that's an incredible ratio, 56-5; mind blowing really.

 

[JJDChE]

Yup, it's true. +51 in 19 games. We've won the TO battle in all 19 games.

Then in 4 playoff games we are -7. Lost the TO battle in all 4 games.

:ugh:

:confused2:

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

If only they can take that momentum into the playoffs Other than the Broncos thrashing, they are a completely different team.

2010 was especially impressive and then disappointing because so many of those wins were against top teams (both super bowl teams that year and both conference championship losers). Only 1 of those games was even close, the Packers.

 

[jmt57]

Jeff Howe has some interesting stats about what the Pats are doing with turnovers in today's Herald.

Turnovers pump attack - BostonHerald.com

BostonHerald.com - Blogs: The Blitz»» Stat check: What the Patriots are doing with their takeaways

According to his research the Pats have scored 109 points off turnovers (about 10 points per game). Of the 32 takeaways only 8 have resulted in the opponent forcing a punt on the ensuing possession by the Pats.

The Patriots boasted the NFL’s top-scoring offense for the majority of the season, and were scoring at will despite not doing a great job of turning takeaways into points.

Now the trend is swinging in the other direction, and the Patriots are going to be a tough out the rest of the way. They turned all five of their takeaways into touchdowns in Thursday night’s 49-19 win against the Jets, including two fumble returns for scores. It capped off a two-game stretch in which the Pats turned eight of their nine turnovers into touchdowns and scored an NFL-record 108 points in 103 hours.​

I initially missed Belichick's post-game comment on his thoughts on the importance of turnovers:

“I think (Thursday) night is the Exhibit A on how quickly the game can change,” coach Bill Belichick said. “Turnovers are a huge part of the game, and other than points, they’re probably statistically the highest correlation to winning. We all saw how quickly that a very competitive game (Thursday) night, that was a scoreless tie, a battle back and forth, then all the sudden it’s 35 points up there.”​

 

[RayClay]

Bbbut the Jets had 405 total yards.:bricks:

 

[Brady'sButtBoy]

Yup, it's true. +51 in 19 games. We've won the TO battle in all 19 games.

Then in 4 playoff games we are -7. Lost the TO battle in all 4 games.

:ugh:

:confused2:

The plus 51 TO ratio in 19 games has to be some kind of record, it's incredible number - for both ends! Think of only turning over the ball 5 times in more than one season, that's as amazing as snagging 56 turnovers. That's just a hair off of 3/game average.

And anyone who wants to argue the importance of turnovers on game outcomes only need to look at JJDChE's quote above: the Pats are minus 7 in the corresponding playoffs games. No wonder they couldn't quite get it done, the Pats weren't employing their not so secret weapon = turnovers.

 

[JJDChE]

The plus 51 TO ratio in 19 games has to be some kind of record, it's incredible number - for both ends! Think of only turning over the ball 5 times in more than one season, that's as amazing as snagging 56 turnovers. That's just a hair off of 3/game average.

And anyone who wants to argue the importance of turnovers on game outcomes only need to look at JJDChE's quote above: the Pats are minus 7 in the corresponding playoffs games. No wonder they couldn't quite get it done, the Pats weren't employing their not so secret weapon = turnovers.

The record for least TOs in a season is 10, a tie between us ('10) and SF ('11). So having 5 in 19 games is pretty amazing. It's very unsettling that we've both turned the ball over more (7 times in 4G) and forced less turnovers (2 in 4G) once the playoffs roll around. I don't know how to fix that, but it needs to be fixed if this team expects to win another title.


I'm sure the +/- is a record. In the last decade or so teams have put a much higher value on reducing giveaways. You never see teams putting in gunslingers who throw 30 TDs and 25INTs. They'd rather play a game manager who throws 18TDs and 8INTs. Look at some of the old school RBs fumble numbers, too. A lot of the all-time greats fumbled 10+ times a season. You rarely see any RB with fumble numbers like that nowadays. MJD had the most fumbles by a starter last year with 6.

 

[Brady'sButtBoy]

Darn good reply post, appreciate the numbers. And BTW, I do try to drink good beer! :eat3:

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

I think it was in the Buffalo game where CBS ran a graphic showing points off turnovers, and it was just up on the screen for an instant and didn't get much comment.

As I recall, it read that the Patriots had something like 200 points scored following opponents turnovers since the last time an opponent cashed in on a Patriots turnover. Meaning:

-we don't make many mistakes a all
-when we do, the defense minimizes that mistake (situational football)
-we force many mistakes
-when we get one, our offense is ruthless in capitalizing on it.

If I am right and it was in the Buffalo game, then given what transpired vs. Indy and the Jets then that stat must be something like 260-0.

Does anyone else remember this?