Wo! Slow down there Mr. King - Patriots #1 in latest Power Ranking?!

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Still need to see this defense string together some complete performances. They've looked brilliant at times (2nd and 3rd quarter yesterday, 1st 2/5's of Bmore game until the shady refs interfered, 1st half against Denver) but fell apart and winded up with a poor or average overall performance. They DID still give up 24 yesterday. Have to see more performances like against Tennesse, St Louis, Arizona, and complete the flashes listed above, more consistently.

As great as the offense is, they've still crapped the bed in big moments/games too. So they're going to need to defense to get off the field and force turnovers, which are two things they did do yesterday. Just gotta limit those points now. Until our defense can take it to that next level, I have great doubt in our ability to win a title. Houston is #1 until proven otherwise, they're 9-1 and they've earned it.

 

[Salva135]

With no clear #1 this year, I can't really bag on any rankings that have

NE
TEX
SF
GB
ATL

in the top five, regardless of the order. To me, that's the clear top 5 in the league, with Baltimore ensconced at 6 (that's where King goes wrong, IMO), and NO, DEN and CHi battling for the next 3 spots, now that Roethlisberger is out.


Just my $.02

Can you please explain why you are still so unsold on Denver? They are 3rd in the league on offense, 6th on defense, Peyton is playing at an MVP level, and they have a cupcake schedule the rest of the way. What am I missing here? Where is their fundamental flaw?

 

[rookBoston]

I wish this was true. Let's use 2007 as a launching point, because that's the year the Patriots started putting up Madden-like point totals. Here's what they averaged during 2007, 2009 (skipping 2008 for obvious reasons), 2010, and 2011:

2007
Regular season: 36.9
Post season: 22.0

2009
Regular season: 26.7
Post season: 14.0

2010
Regular season: 32.4
Post season: 21.0

2011
Regular season: 32.1
Post season:28.3

TOTAL (2007, 2009, 2010, 2011)
Regular season: 32.0
Post season: 23.3

Only 1 time in 8 post-season games from 2007-2011 did the Patriots score more than 31 points (last year vs. Denver). Only twice did they score more than 23 points (2007 vs. Jax, last year vs. Den). Three out of eight times they scored 17 or fewer points.

In other words, as explosive as this offense has been during the past 5 years, they really have been handled by most everyone they've faced during the playoffs.

So I'd like to think it would be different this year, and I think a good running game and perhaps a better defense (he says, hoping) would contribute to that. But the pattern is not good for this team over the past 5 years, unfortunately.

Interesting evaluation, love the hard numbers. But you failed to account for the fact that teams that are in the Post season are much better than the teams that play in the Regular season. In fact, I think probably every team in the NFL will have lower scoring numbers in the post-season than regular season. I'd be surprised if the dropoff is somehow unique to the Pats.

Really, the salient point isn't whether the Pats score less in the post-season than the regular season; it's whether the dropoff for the Pats is as severe compared with other teams. THAT would be a better measure of the caliber, versatility and depth of an offense and the quality of the coaching.

 

[Ive_Killed_People]

You should definitely be proud of a massive douche move.

I'm WAY proud thank you! Also reported.

 

[ivanvamp]

Interesting evaluation, love the hard numbers. But you failed to account for the fact that teams that are in the Post season are much better than the teams that play in the Regular season. In fact, I think probably every team in the NFL will have lower scoring numbers in the post-season than regular season. I'd be surprised if the dropoff is somehow unique to the Pats.

Really, the salient point isn't whether the Pats score less in the post-season than the regular season; it's whether the dropoff for the Pats is as severe compared with other teams. THAT would be a better measure of the caliber, versatility and depth of an offense and the quality of the coaching.

I was responding to the idea that the only ing that can stop (or slow) the Pats' offense is the Pats themselves. Quite clearly, good defenses have found a way to stop/slow the Pats' offense in the playoffs.

 

[Deus Irae]

Can you please explain why you are still so unsold on Denver? They are 3rd in the league on offense, 6th on defense, Peyton is playing at an MVP level, and they have a cupcake schedule the rest of the way.

On a neutral field, against which of the following teams would you favor Denver:

NE
TEX
SF
GB
ATL
NO
CHI
NYG
BAL
PIT
TB
SEA

 

[Deus Irae]

I was responding to the idea that the only ing that can stop (or slow) the Pats' offense is the Pats themselves. Quite clearly, good defenses have found a way to stop/slow the Pats' offense in the playoffs.

2007:

Patriots destroy Jaguars by taking what Jags were giving
Brady injured against Chargers, team goes to the running game to close it out
Brady still injured against Giants, others also injured... Had put up 30+ against Giants about a month earlier.

2009:

Brady coming back from injury
Welker injured in last game of season

2010:

The only true "loss", against the Jets, after the Patriots make stupid mistakes stopping themselves (INT on screen, dropped TD pass)

2011:

Broncos get smoked
In Ravens game, Brady plays poorly, Patriots still get 23
For Giants game, Gronk injured

So there's really only been 2 games where the team was 'healthy' and still got held down, and one of those games saw them held down in large part because of errors the team itself made.

 

[ivanvamp]

Interesting evaluation, love the hard numbers. But you failed to account for the fact that teams that are in the Post season are much better than the teams that play in the Regular season. In fact, I think probably every team in the NFL will have lower scoring numbers in the post-season than regular season. I'd be surprised if the dropoff is somehow unique to the Pats.

Last four Super Bowl champs...

2011 NY Giants
Regular season: 24.6
Post season: 25.5

2010 Packers
Regular season: 24.3
Post season: 30.3

2009 Saints
Regular season: 31.9
Post season: 35.7

2008 Steelers
Regular season: 21.7
Post season: 28.3

 

[ivanvamp]

2007:

Patriots destroy Jaguars by taking what Jags were giving
Brady injured against Chargers, team goes to the running game to close it out
Brady still injured against Giants, others also injured... Had put up 30+ against Giants about a month earlier.

2009:

Brady coming back from injury
Welker injured in last game of season

2010:

The only true "loss", against the Jets, after the Patriots make stupid mistakes stopping themselves (INT on screen, dropped TD pass)

2011:

Broncos get smoked
In Ravens game, Brady plays poorly, Patriots still get 23
For Giants game, Gronk injured

So there's really only been 2 games where the team was 'healthy' and still got held down, and one of those games saw them held down in large part because of errors the team itself made.

Excuses, excuses. I've paid just as much attention to thefts over these years as you so I'm not oblivious to these things, but the pattern over those four years is real. I hope the Pats don't fall prey to it again this year.

 

[ahmed]

I'll take Pats over any other team too

 

[Deus Irae]

Excuses, excuses. I've paid just as much attention to thefts over these years as you so I'm not oblivious to these things, but the pattern over those four years is real. I hope the Pats don't fall prey to it again this year.

They're not excuses. It's the way it's been. The offense that's been on the field has not been the healthy offense people were calling "unstoppable", etc...

For someone who's all about the data, you sure seem willing to ignore this data.

 

[Deus Irae]

Last four Super Bowl champs...

2011 NY Giants...

2010 Packers...

2009 Saints...

2008 Steelers...

Giants played 4 games. 3 of them: 24, 20, 21 You skew your data by including the 37 point game against the Packers

Packers had 2 (of 4) games where they scored just 21 points

Saints had 30+ in all 3 games

Pittsburgh: 23, 27, 35

So, really, two were as good as, or better than, they were in the regular season, 1 was a mix of better and worse, and one was mostly worse.

 

[CityOfChampions]

Can you please explain why you are still so unsold on Denver? They are 3rd in the league on offense, 6th on defense, Peyton is playing at an MVP level, and they have a cupcake schedule the rest of the way. What am I missing here? Where is their fundamental flaw?

You said it yourself - they have a cupcake schedule. There's no reason to be in the top 5 ahead of any of the teams mentioned.

 

[ivanvamp]

Giants played 4 games. 3 of them: 24, 20, 21 You skew your data by including the 37 point game against the Packers

Packers had 2 (of 4) games where they scored just 21 points

Saints had 30+ in all 3 games

Pittsburgh: 23, 27, 35

So, really, two were as good as, or better than, they were in the regular season, 1 was a mix of better and worse, and one was mostly worse.

And the Pats data is skewed by their 45-point win over Denver. Without that, the Pats' playoff performance over the past few years looks MUCH worse.

Deus, I know you like to argue, but you're taking the losing side on this one.

 

[ivanvamp]

They're not excuses. It's the way it's been. The offense that's been on the field has not been the healthy offense people were calling "unstoppable", etc...

For someone who's all about the data, you sure seem willing to ignore this data.

Ok, so I guess the Pats offense has been pretty solid in the playoffs, compared to the regular season.

 

[goheels22002]

On a neutral field, against which of the following teams would you favor Denver:

NE
TEX
SF
GB
ATL
NO
CHI
NYG
BAL
PIT
TB
SEA

This is like Alamo's guess the score contest: As it stands today with McGahee done and concussions all over the place, I'd take Denver over the 49ers, Saints, Bears, Eli and the Giants, Baltimore, Charlie Batch, Pittsburgh and those hideous uniforms, Tampa Bay and Pete Carroll's Seahawks away from home.

In other words the only teams I like against the Broncos are the Patriots, Texans, Packers and Falcons. Interesting - each has a QB who can keep his team in a 30 point game. The Giants could easily return to favor if Eli starts playing like he has a clue - schizo.

 

[Rob0729]

Excuses, excuses. I've paid just as much attention to thefts over these years as you so I'm not oblivious to these things, but the pattern over those four years is real. I hope the Pats don't fall prey to it again this year.

The trend can be broken this year because of two reasons: the Pats have an outside receiving threat and a running game. In previous years, the Pats have had dominant offenses with obvious weaknesses. The last few years, the Pats lacked an outside or deep threat and had a mediocre running game. You flood the center of the field and you have a shot of shutting down the Pats. Prior to that they over-relied on Moss and Welker and Moss slumped in the playoffs.

This year, the Pats lead the league in rushing TDs, third in rushing attempts, and 5th in rushing yards. The Pats can keep pressure off of Brady with the running game and play action this year making the Giants' style of defense less effective against him.

Also, Lloyd and Edelman are providing outside threats which is spreading out defenses and not allowing them to flood the route lanes for Gronk and Welker (and eventually Hernandez).

It could all fall apart in the playoffs, but this year's offense is different than recent Pats' offense. There is no clear weakness you can point to unlike the last few years.

 

[ivanvamp]

The trend can be broken this year because of two reasons: the Pats have an outside receiving threat and a running game. In previous years, the Pats have had dominant offenses with obvious weaknesses. The last few years, the Pats lacked an outside or deep threat and had a mediocre running game. You flood the center of the field and you have a shot of shutting down the Pats. Prior to that they over-relied on Moss and Welker and Moss slumped in the playoffs.

This year, the Pats lead the league in rushing TDs, third in rushing attempts, and 5th in rushing yards. The Pats can keep pressure off of Brady with the running game and play action this year making the Giants' style of defense less effective against him.

Also, Lloyd and Edelman are providing outside threats which is spreading out defenses and not allowing them to flood the route lanes for Gronk and Welker (and eventually Hernandez).

It could all fall apart in the playoffs, but this year's offense is different than recent Pats' offense. There is no clear weakness you can point to unlike the last few years.

I sure hope you're right.

 

[Deus Irae]

And the Pats data is skewed by their 45-point win over Denver. Without that, the Pats' playoff performance over the past few years looks MUCH worse.

Deus, I know you like to argue, but you're taking the losing side on this one.

I'm not using overall ppg to justify my position.

 

[Deus Irae]

Ok, so I guess the Pats offense has been pretty solid in the playoffs, compared to the regular season.

look, I'm sorry that your data was misleading because of its incompleteness, but it was. There's no need to get all sandy in your privates. I never claimed that the Patriots offense was a juggernaut in the playoffs. I just noted some obvious reasons as to why those offenses were limited, regardless of the score.