The Cost of Keeping Asante Samuel

[SamBamsFan]

Asante wants the money. It's OK to say that as he has certainly outperformed his rookie contract as a 4th round pick. The current cost of franchising Asante would be $7.79M. Before people start saying that this is out of the Patriots Braintrusts range based on their value system, I wanted to show you something:

$7.79M/ $109M = 7.15% of the total value of the Pats '07 cap (or about 1 out of every 14 cap dollars).

Ty Law '04
$10.2M/ $79.24M = 12.88% of available cap
'03
$8.8M/ $74.61M = 11.8% of available cap
'02
$4.55M/ $71.1M = 6.4% of available cap

It was a contract that B/P inherited from the previous administration granted, but they did honor it for the next four years because of Ty Laws monetary value fit within their respective Patriot values. I'd love some comments on this, Graham, and other prospective free agents...

A plug to Miguel's page for these #'s- www.patscap.com

 

[everlong]

I think they will franchise him if they cannot sign him and pay him the $7.79 for one year if they cannot trade him. The question is what will it take to sign him to a long term contract and do the Pats put enough value on him to do so.

If Samuel would take a 4/32 with a 10M bonus are the Pats willing to pay him that much? I'm not sure they are and he can probably get more than that elsewhere and we all know he wants top coin.

 

[BelichickFan]

I think they will franchise him if they cannot sign him and pay him the $7.79 for one year if they cannot trade him. The question is what will it take to sign him to a long term contract and do the Pats put enough value on him to do so.

Right, actually having him play under the Franchise Tag is possible but, IMO, unlikely. When (not if, hopefully) we tag him it should generate a little more incentive to discuss a long term deal or we can trade him. He wants a long term deal - just like Branch.

 

[wdkantro2]

I don't think they will franchise him. As Reiss has been saying for awhile now, if they give Asante the 7.9 Mil, that will be about 17 million between him and Brady, almost 10% of the total cap, which completely goes against the Pats theory of spreading money out to multiple players.

Also, they were willing to give Ty Law all that money because he was a leader, it was pre-dynasty (hadn't finished cleaning up the cap problems yet) and he was a true, lock down #1 corner. Asante had a bunch of interceptions, but I guarantee you Peyton Manning fears Law a lot more than Asante.

 

[BelichickFan]

I don't think they will franchise him. As Reiss has been saying for awhile now, if they give Asante the 7.9 Mil, that will be about 17 million between him and Brady, almost 10% of the total cap

The Franchise Tag is about control. He won't sign it until he sees if there's a good long term deal to be made elsewhere. That's why Branch said he'd play 2006 here if we promised not to Franchise him. If players wanted a big one year salary they'd happily be Franchised. They don't, they want the long term deal with the big signing bonus. The tag buys time and control.

 

[Michigan Dave]

I don't think they will franchise him. As Reiss has been saying for awhile now, if they give Asante the 7.9 Mil, that will be about 17 million between him and Brady, almost 10% of the total cap, which completely goes against the Pats theory of spreading money out to multiple players.

Also, they were willing to give Ty Law all that money because he was a leader, it was pre-dynasty (hadn't finished cleaning up the cap problems yet) and he was a true, lock down #1 corner. Asante had a bunch of interceptions, but I guarantee you Peyton Manning fears Law a lot more than Asante.

Asante is much more than just a bunch of interceptions. He is a true lockdown corner, and is approaching the top 3 in the league.

Pay Asante.

 

[everlong]

I don't think they will franchise him. As Reiss has been saying for awhile now, if they give Asante the 7.9 Mil, that will be about 17 million between him and Brady, almost 10% of the total cap, which completely goes against the Pats theory of spreading money out to multiple players.

They are franchising him to keep him under their control. I think him playing the one year under the franchise is highly unlikely.

I would put the odds now as

65% Franchise and trade
25% long term deal
10% one year franchise contract

The one year may be even lower than 10% when you consider all the teams with cap space and how Deion shot his way out of town. Samuel will sit out IMO before doing the one year.

 

[wdkantro2]

Asante is much more than just a bunch of interceptions. He is a true lockdown corner, and is approaching the top 3 in the league.

Pay Asante.

Have you watched every game this year before making that claim? I can think of multiple occasions where he looked horrid in coverage, and the opposing QB had no trouble picking on him.

A true lockdown corner knows how to play press coverage too.

 

[Michigan Dave]

Have you watched every game this year before making that claim? I can think of multiple occasions where he looked horrid in coverage, and the opposing QB had no trouble picking on him.

A true lockdown corner knows how to play press coverage too.

Yes. I have watched every game for several years. And I am not alone in that thought. He stepped it up this year. He's doing almost everything you can ask a #1 corner to do. He is fundamentally strong, and has an eye for the ball.

 

[wdkantro2]

Yes. I have watched every game for several years. And I am not alone in that thought. He stepped it up this year. He's doing almost everything you can ask a #1 corner to do. He is fundamentally strong, and has an eye for the ball.

I'm not saying he is a bad corner. I think they should pay him, but they shouldn't pay him top 3 money. He is still extremely succeptible (sp?) to the double move, even when he gives his patented 10 yards of cushion. He very well could have cost us the Chargers game when he got torched by Vincent Jackson (who is slow as hell!) on a double move, but Jackson couldn't get his second foot down. He has also had times that showed he is not a sure tackler (Mo Drew bouncing off a pathetic Asante tackle attempt). Lastly, why did we beat the Colts in 03 and the Rams in 01? Because Law mugged the crap out of the receivers. Asante just can't do that. He has great instincts for the ball and for breaking up plays, but he just doesn't bring everything to the table that I believe is required of a true #1 to be paid like one.

 

[upstater1]

It doesn't matter who is alone in that thought, nor who shares it. The important thing is, what do Belichick and Pioli think?

And it seems to me that they don't think as highly of Asante. Asante himself has said as much when he quoted negotaitions.

In addition, I heard Belichick talk about Asante's play the day after the AFCCG, and he gave half the credit to Asante (for locking down the Colts' receivers) and the other half to Pees for the scheme. The clear implication is that the CBs success was a product of the system.

I really think the Patriots don't value him as a top 5 CB. They do think he's a number #1 and are probably willing to pay him as such, but not a top of the league type guy.

 

[everlong]

Part of the reason they didn't play press coverage is because our safeties are not good in coverage and we have a slow LB core making it worse. When Ty Law was playing great press coverage he had Rodney, Gino, or Lawyer behind him. Rodney and Lawyer are not guys you would want matched up one on one with a Wayne or Harrison but they understood how to play over the top coverage really well. Eugene was playing some great ball back then. Phiffer and a younger Bruschi were also much better in coverage.

I'm not saying Assante is as good as Law especially in press coverage because the Pats don't play it but the reason go beyond Samuel and Hobbs as to why they don't.

 

[DW Toys]

I have seen Champ Bailey beat this year too. The probelm is what do you replace him with? Randall Gay? A first rounder? Won't a first rounder get chopped up too? If Hobbs is the number 1 CB, that is scarry,

The Samuel kid is only 25. One reason Law is not still here was age besides price.

Maybe this shows The Godfather and SP that getting these deals done early makes sense. You would have think they learned a lesson.

But I think this does send a positive message to the rest of the team if they do sign him, that indeed the Pats will pay someone if they are playing very well and the key thing is, the price is realistic.

Branch was just o.k. in 2005. Samuel has been very much the better of the two with his efforts in 2006 and even though the WR struggled this year, Samuel is yet harder to replace in 2007. Cousins look at the available FA if Assante goes! It's frightening. Did hear that Michael Lewis (Eagles) was being considered at a safety here and he P.O.'d the front office because he wanted out with a losuy contract, so he sat in the second half. He's a tough guy with a Harrison attitude.

I think that Caldwell was o.k., but I think the biggest surprise in 2007 will be Gaffney. Watch how quick he is and how he attacks the ball. Caldwell lets it hit him on the way in (see playoffs). Gaffney was obviously smarter than Gabriel who didn't get it.
DW Toys

 

[PATSNUTme]

You have to look what is out there to replace him and there is not much. Buffalo will probably franchise Clement because they have the cap space. You certainly don't want to rely on a rookie draft pick or a brittle Randel Gay.

I think the Patriots do tag him. Then they can either sign him to a long term deal or trade him if they feel they have a suitable replacement.

 

[ajmitch81]

I have a feeling the Patriots will lock Samuel up long term. He truly has become a shut down corner (did Manning throw on him after that INT?) and to me is worth keeping around, he makes his entire side of the field that much better every defensive possession.

If we trade him, we better get two 1st rounders like the Franchise Tag states. I'd rather keep him and worry about other positions though.

 

[PatsWorldChamps]

one of my friends said samuel wants 7 years, 35M
Of course, structure matters;

29M bonus, then 1M/year sucks for the pats

while 7 5's would not make AS happy


i think the pats would be crazy not to do something like

11, 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, 6 to yield cap hits of

2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 5.5, 6.5, and 7.5 for a #1 playmaking CB

 

[Remix 6]

i hope he accepts a good contract..not top money but give him incentives..if he plays like he did this year or close..let him get major bonuses

 

[shirtsleeve]

It doesn't matter who is alone in that thought, nor who shares it. The important thing is, what do Belichick and Pioli think?

And it seems to me that they don't think as highly of Asante. Asante himself has said as much when he quoted negotaitions.

In addition, I heard Belichick talk about Asante's play the day after the AFCCG, and he gave half the credit to Asante (for locking down the Colts' receivers) and the other half to Pees for the scheme. The clear implication is that the CBs success was a product of the system.

I really think the Patriots don't value him as a top 5 CB. They do think he's a number #1 and are probably willing to pay him as such, but not a top of the league type guy.

No one here really knows what the braintrust thinks of him. I was skeptical of the kid at the beginning of the season. But after reviewing some of his stats over his 4 years here, this season is not a fluke. He has shown constant and consistent growth without a dip in all pertinent stat areas. The kid is 25 and just coming into his own. We haven't seen the top from this kid yet. As good as he seemed at the end of the season, considering his history of constant improvement, the performance he had at the end of the season and playoffs is probably the new floor of what to expect from him in the future. And if he isn't here that level is scary. Just my thoughts.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

...if they give Asante the 7.9 Mil, that will be about 17 million between him and Brady, almost 10% of the total cap...

Much more than 10% of the total cap, unless they raised it to $170M this morning when I went to work. I believe it's at 109M this year.

The "just to Brady and [your name here]" argument is a red herring. You could put a middle-class guy in that equation and get "that will be $14M just between Brady and [your name here]." So pull Brady out of it; he's probably a little underpaid given what he could get elsewhere, but he's not hurting. The Pats brain trust understands that, and they understand the same thing about Seymour.

The real shocker is Colvin + Samuel (franchised.) Colvin's good, but his compensation is climbing for a linebacker. I wonder if they re-do his deal.

Regardless - I'm in the "franchise and trade" camp, I think. I do not like the signs A.S. is showing, in terms of full market value compensation. He will almost certainly be worth more to some shmoe than to us; that being the case, he'll most likely be moving on.

I could, however, live with the 1-year cap hit, if he signs it. If not, as I understand it, he watches a season on TV and waits for calls from his agent.

I don't know what he wants, and I don't know whether his tattoo means "I got drunk and I'm celebrating my last year on the hated rookie deal, and next year I'll make millions - plural - just to play a game," or whether it means "Get paid the most possible by whatever wretched bidder is out there." Probably the latter.

Nature of the beast.

PFnV

 

[everlong]

one of my friends said samuel wants 7 years, 35M

I find it hard to believe he would want that contract because he wouldn't get a second big pay day. At 25 I would think he would go for a 4 year deal so that he could go for another contract at 29 not 32 years old and 5M/season is on the lower side of what he stands to make from another team.