Prediction: The Pats' Pass Defense is About to Go From Terrible to Very Good

[Marqui]

If chevss over at PP is to be believed, they intend to keep McCourty at CB initially.

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He also says the Pats are really happy with the Talib acquisition. Their plan is to use Talib and McCourty at CB if/when Chung and Gregory get healthy so long as Chung pledges to do his job and quits guessing/gambling with a fall back plan of McCourty at S with Talib and Dennard at CB. Wilson and Arrington for depth and nickel/dime.

He thinks the coaching of the DBs is fine and not the problem. Chung's regression is a hot topic as BB was counting on him this year and the feeling is Chung is trying too hard to make plays rather than just doing his job. His leash is short and he knows it.

On Talib, he spoke with Todd France of Fame who is Talib's agent. France told him the Pats did extensive background study and spoke to Talib with Tampa Bay's permission prior to the trade. France also told him that Talib is really excited about playing for the Pats and welcomes the chance to start fresh.

 

[jnug]

I do think that the Talib acquisition is a big deal. Lets face it though....it was as much an admission that the secondary was/is a huge problem for the Pats in general and the defense in particular. This is a problem that went beyond needing a better pass rush. It also suggests that between the two possible issues often tossed around here, talent or coaching, the talent level was surely lacking.

Where I still have some concerns is that in a couple cases, guys the Pats still have to rely on to play in that secondary just cannot seem to stay on the field. Arrington has been battered and beaten so much over the coarse of the last two seasons that I am no longer sure about the longevity of his career. How many times can a guy get carted off the field? He has been a real trooper as far as playing in pain is concerned, generally inserting himself back into games while sustaining multiple injuries but at some point it all catches up to you. They don't rely on Dowling as much but he cannot stay on the field to save his skin. Chung could be a little more durable as well.

At any rate, their tendency to injury may be yet another facet of their general lack of size. As I have often pointed out here, Pats DB's are all cut from the same mold, all about the same height and weight, as in smallish especially at CB.

Talib is finally a guy that breaks that mold at least for a Pats CB. Talib would be on the big side even for a Pats safety. Hopefully it means we have seen the last of this effort to build a secondary of really smallish guys especially playing at CB as I just don't think it works.

While I would love to see cohesive play become a hallmark of the Pats secondary they really do need Talib to play. So, that is a new guy that has to work his way in quickly and if the remaining DB's continue to beat a path from hospital bed to playing field as often as they have, they may simply not end up on the field long enough to develop as a cohesive unit.

While all the press has been talking about Talib as a pretty big gamble I don't view it that way. I think the Pats had to make a move something like Talib. While his addition does not mean we can talk about Talib Island the way some talk about Revis Island, Talib immediately becomes the best man up cover guy we have and is a huge upgrade in that regard. So he adds a body to an injury prone secondary. He adds a big body to a smallish secondary especially among the CB's. He fills the single biggest hole the Pats had in their secondary, that being for a guy that can in fact at least hold his own if not more than hold his own against many of the league's WR's. That allows the coaches to scheme something like the way defensive coaches scheme when they have somebody like a Talib in their secondary.

I would love to see them grow from yuk to very good in the space of the remaining games of the regular season but I would settle for just mediocre at this point especially since they are still kind of smallish as a group and prone to injury. I think the smallish and prone to injury part of the deal and what it means for an effort to become a cohesive unit is still the biggest issue, hopefully now in part mitigated by the addition of Talib.

If they really do make it all the way to very good I will be tickled pink but kinda' surprised at the same time. You would however knock me over with a feather if they do not improve noticeably as they have in Talib something they have not been able to draft....a CB that has not declined from the start of his pro career at least in his on field performance.

 

[The Gr8est]

This is the first time in a long time that I've gotten the sense of a real plan as far as how the coaching staff wants the secondary to progress, instead of just what seems like an ad hoc band-aid approach.

Kind of like the many attempts at finding the right TEs to play the position to the standard that BB had in mind, and which has revolutionized the offense now that he has found his guys.

Hopefully, we are seeing the same thing on defense that BB envisioned for his two TE offense.

 

[mayoclinic]

Kind of like the many attempts at finding the right TEs to play the position to the standard that BB had in mind, and which has revolutionized the offense now that he has found his guys.

Hopefully, we are seeing the same thing on defense that BB envisioned for his two TE offense.

Not only that, when the Pats released Chris Baker and let Ben Watson walk in FA, the TE cubbard was totally barren prior to the 2010 draft. That unit went from being essentially non-existent to the best in the NFL in a very short time.

I used the RB group as a comparison in a PM to OTG. It was only 3 months ago that most people considered that we had a totally unproven RB group, and many people questioned the wisdom of letting BJGE walk in FA. Now, at least through 8 games, the Pats have the most prolific rushing attack that they've had during the BB era with a very deep group of backs who complement each other nicely, and Ridley appears to be emerging as a legitimate stud. What was a position of weakness is suddenly a position of strength.

It seems like there is some kind of plan. That gives me hope. Aqib Talib may or may not be the answer, but at least he's a sign that the FO and coaching staff are aware of a need and are trying to move in the right direction. There's no doubt he has some skills. God pray he keeps his head on for at least the next 3 months.

 

[The Gr8est]

Not only that, when the Pats released Chris Baker and let Ben Watson walk in FA, the TE cubbard was totally barren prior to the 2010 draft. That unit went from being essentially non-existent to the best in the NFL in a very short time.

I used the RB group as a comparison in a PM to OTG. It was only 3 months ago that most people considered that we had a totally unproven RB group, and many people questioned the wisdom of letting BJGE walk in FA. Now, at least through 8 games, the Pats have the most prolific rushing attack that they've had during the BB era with a very deep group of backs who complement each other nicely, and Ridley appears to be emerging as a legitimate stud. What was a position of weakness is suddenly a position of strength.

It seems like there is some kind of plan. That gives me hope. Aqib Talib may or may not be the answer, but at least he's a sign that the FO and coaching staff are aware of a need and are trying to move in the right direction. There's no doubt he has some skills. God pray he keeps his head on for at least the next 3 months.

It also seems not long ago that our LBs were horrid and we were discussing guys like Ray Maleauga and James Laurinaitis as dream picks who could help upgrade our LB corps.

Now we have Mayo, Spikes, and Hightower; all young and talented, and with bright futures.

It's a good time to be a Pats fan.

 

[Joker]

It's a good time to be a Pats fan.

I've been saying this since 2004...some idiots just don't get it though and must continually cry about how "BAAAAAAAAAAAD!!! things are...they follow the teachings of THIS savior...

 

[Off The Grid]

I used the RB group as a comparison in a PM to OTG. It was only 3 months ago that most people considered that we had a totally unproven RB group, and many people questioned the wisdom of letting BJGE walk in FA.

Remarkable, isn't it?

It was clear that we had the greatest Depth of Talent at O Back that this team has seen in any Era...and yet so many were bewailing the loss of BenJarvus Hyphenator, The Most Average Back Who Ever Lived.

 

[mayoclinic]

Remarkable, isn't it?

It was clear that we had the greatest Depth of Talent at O Back that this team has seen in any Era...and yet so many were bewailing the loss of BenJarvus Hyphenator, The Most Average Back Who Ever Lived.

If 3 months ago - at the beginning of training camp - I had started a thread predicting that at the midpoint of the season the Pats would rank 5th in rushing in the NFL, would be averaging almost 150 YPG and be on pace for nearly 2400 yards rushing (more than in 2004 or 2008), and that Stevan Ridley would lead the AFC in rushing, I probably would have been laughed off the board. In comparison, a thread predicting that our pass defense could be "very good" by playoff team seems rather tame.

 

[JR4]

.......

........ If the deep safety coverage is reliable it will allow the CBs to play press-man and bump opposing receivers off their routes, knowing that someone has their back if their man gets past them. That allows the front 7 to attack more aggressively, generate more pressure, and create more disruption.
.....

I understand most of what you say , and agree, but the last sentence I'm
not sure why you say that.

Why doesn't the front 7 attack more aggressively even when the deep safety coverage is NOT reliable and the CBs do not play press-man bumping opposing receivers off their routes?
It seems when the secondary can't pass protect well the front 7 should be
as aggressive as possible to limit their exposure. No?

Also, if PATs begin to cover well it may seem the front 7 is being more
aggressive but that perception may be due to the fact they have more time to get to the QB.

 

[hodgey]

It's a good time to be a Pats fan.

I've been saying this since 2004...some idiots just don't get it though and must continually cry about how "BAAAAAAAAAAAD!!! things are...they follow the teachings of THIS savior...

Its been good but zero lombardis and 2 superbowl defeats to awe shucks Eli has been tough. If TB gets one more I'll never complain again.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

It all depends on the pass rush. The secondary as it is can be serviceable but not great IMO. We don't have any stud playmakers back there or shutdown guys like Ty Law/Rodney Harrison. With a dominant pass rush, an average secondary like the one we had in 2004 can look very good, so yes the pass D overall can become very good. But then again, we still did have Rodney and I don't see anyone in this secondary that is near the player or leader he was that year. The talent overall might be comparable to that secondary but either way it's going to require winning the battle in the trenches.

 

[CityOfChampions]

If we keep blitzing I think our d will be good enough - which is better than what it was last year.

 

[serifyn]

The Patriots haven't had both starting Safeties for weeks now, Though most people regard Chung and Gregory as trash right now, communication is a huge factor in the secondary, so getting them back should help.

The real problem is the lack of talent back there right now, Arrington seems to have fallen off a cliff, and Mccourty's technique is out of wack (moving him to Safety isn't going to help him develop into a good man coverage player.)

Hopefully Talib comes in here and can help, but expecting a dramatic turnaround so late in the season is unlikely, the Patriots Secondary may improve, and it may be enough, but there are simply too many problems for it to suddenly because much better than it is now.

 

[Joey007]

It all depends on the pass rush. The secondary as it is can be serviceable but not great IMO. We don't have any stud playmakers back there or shutdown guys like Ty Law/Rodney Harrison. With a dominant pass rush, an average secondary like the one we had in 2004 can look very good, so yes the pass D overall can become very good. But then again, we still did have Rodney and I don't see anyone in this secondary that is near the player or leader he was that year. The talent overall might be comparable to that secondary but either way it's going to require winning the battle in the trenches.

Jones and Nink are good starts. But we need what the Giants have- the 3rd guy factor. The kind of guy that on 3rd downs uses his speed to get to the QB to shut down drives.

Its time to shine, Mr. Cunningham.

 

[VrabelJr]

Jones and Nink are good starts. But we need what the Giants have- the 3rd guy factor. The kind of guy that on 3rd downs uses his speed to get to the QB to shut down drives.

Its time to shine, Mr. Cunningham.

It's half way through the season and Cunningham has been pretty dang effective. Obviously we can't expect him to be Umenyiora or Kiwanuka. There's been lots of plays where Cunningham straight up owns his man on 3rd down and enables Ninkovich or Jones to make the play. QB sees Cunningham coming right at his face and walks into a Jones/Ninkvoch sack.

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

Great post Mayo.

One thing that BB has always been a huge proponent of, is allowing your players to do their jobs. Your point that their is finally clarity in the structure must take a lot of pressure off the players. As was mentioned, we arent asking Ibed or Brown or Slater to do a role they simply arent capable of doing. We finally have players with very specific skill sets that work synergistically together as a defensive whole. We arent throwing another body back in the safety role because we are out of options, we are talking about an All pro talent who can cover any mistakes that happen in front of him. We arent talking about undersized corners getting abused 1-1, we are talking about a couple corners over 200 who love to get physical.

Building a defense is definitely a puzzle, and the last year its felt like staring at 1000 pieces that dont match. For the first time in awhile, it feels like the pieces actually fit, and Talib is a huge section that will make everything else fall inline.

On a separate note, if somehow this is the answer to all our prayers, it will really free up our offseason and draft for luxury needs as opposed to desperate needs. From a very basic level

Oline-good
qb-great
rb-great
te-great
wr-avg

dt-great
de-good
ilb-great
olb-avg
cb-?
fs-?
ss-?

In other words, I really hope Talib works out as I think he can.

 

[supafly]

The Pats drafted a S in round 2 and signed a FA S. That doesn't look like they thought McCourty was S, that looks like they intended him to be a CB, he didn't play S at all in camp, and didn't move to S until injuries forced it.

I am not saying that Shalize Manza Young and Greg Bedard are necessarily right, but that is 100% definitely what they both reported only about 10-15 days ago.

I cannot find the link again as it was on the home page of this site, but I did link the story in another thread after McCourty played at FS in his first game, so that would have been about 2-2 1/2 weeks ago. You can feel free to look it up if you wish, or you can take up your doubts with either one/both of the above mentioned beat writers, asking for their source. As we know, what is sometimes reported is not always the truth, so I really don't know either way.

Their definition of the "offseason" probably is not training camp either, so keep that in mind. They were most likely talking about earlier on in the late spring/early summer. I highly doubt that they did not have a plan in effect during the late off-season of training camp, but there were reports where McCourty was asked about it and he played very coy, as you can imagine.

The fact that Tavon Wilson was drafted really makes no difference, as Meriweather went in the first round and only started one game. The thought of needing to start a green rookie was not likely the plan (at least I'd hope not!!), as he would have been blended in a lot more slowly in situational/later game/obvious dime settings in a perfect world without injuries, and would've seen a lot less snaps had it not been for the starters getting hurt.

As you can see, Wilson may be a great addition with a lot of youth, speed, and upside, but he is still very raw and green. As nice as he's been there should never be any occasion where a safety gives up that late game TD in the Seattle game--that was inexusable. The fact that he repeated his mistake in the very next game speaks for his inexperience. I think he'll be a good player here, but he's not there yet, and Ebner shouldn't even see the field yet unless it's a late game blowout.

 

[jnug]

Well as to Arrington falling off a cliff I think his play is at least in part a symptom of the pounding he has taken the last couple of years. He has simply had the living tar beaten out of him and it just takes its toll after awhile.

I still think the degree to which they improve will depend on how much of an impact Talib has and whether or not this continual shuttle between hospital bed and playing field for the secondary continues. If they continue to have to move pieces around due to injury it is hard to see how they will be able to develop into a cohesive secondary over the latter part of the season and Talib will have to integrate very quickly as his size at CB and style of play is desperately needed back there.

Now as for the rest of the defense, they seem to be coming along pretty well and you can I think make the case that they are right on BB's usual pace of development. The secondary guys have got to be able to stay on the field together enough for that to happen there and again get Talib producing ASAP.

 

[supafly]

It's half way through the season and Cunningham has been pretty dang effective. Obviously we can't expect him to be Umenyiora or Kiwanuka. There's been lots of plays where Cunningham straight up owns his man on 3rd down and enables Ninkovich or Jones to make the play. QB sees Cunningham coming right at his face and walks into a Jones/Ninkvoch sack.

I for one, never even came close to giving up on Cunningham. He played a nice rookie year in 2010 and then lost his job due to the effectiveness of Andre Carter (duh) as a better option, and an unfortunate injury.

Those who gave up on him were way too quick to do so in my opinion.

I think he certainly has potential and made some nice strides.

 

[Fencer]

Some thoughts around scheme:

• BB seems to always have believed in knocking receivers around as hard as possible.
• This is currently legal only near the line of scrimmage. Thus, it would make sense for BB to evolve to press coverage ...
• ... to the extent possible. It is standard to line up two different WRs behind the line of scrimmage, so there WILL be times the receiver can at least run around a jam.
• BB's man-love for Ed Reed has always seemed real.
• That old cliche about players nearer the center of the field having more impact makes a lot of sense. Moving McCourty to safety would be a fit for that.