Question about roster turnover

[tatepatsfan]

For the past few years I have done my own little off season prediction thing just for the heck of it, and every year I usually have a relatively good amount of players leaving and players joining the roster. This year, I have very few. I have us keeping a good amount of our FA (admittedly it may be very optimistic, but I see us resigning the big trio of Graham, Samuel, and Banta-Cain).

I struggled with adding new FA and finding places for the draft picks. It seems almost unrealistic to see such little roster turnover. Of my 53 for next year, I only had 3 new Patriots from former NFL teams (Drew Bennett, Todd Wade, and London Fletcher-Baker), and 5 draft picks (Darius Walker, Robert Meachem, Patrick Willis, Reggie Nelson, and Dameyion Hughes). The other draft picks I added to the PS as well as a few other Pats (like Mills).

Is it realistic to think 45 of the 53 to be Pats from this year's roster?

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

For the past few years I have done my own little off season prediction thing just for the heck of it, and every year I usually have a relatively good amount of players leaving and players joining the roster. This year, I have very few. I have us keeping a good amount of our FA (admittedly it may be very optimistic, but I see us resigning the big trio of Graham, Samuel, and Banta-Cain).

I struggled with adding new FA and finding places for the draft picks. It seems almost unrealistic to see such little roster turnover. Of my 53 for next year, I only had 3 new Patriots from former NFL teams (Drew Bennett, Todd Wade, and London Fletcher-Baker), and 5 draft picks (Darius Walker, Robert Meachem, Patrick Willis, Reggie Nelson, and Dameyion Hughes). The other draft picks I added to the PS as well as a few other Pats (like Mills).

Is it realistic to think 45 of the 53 to be Pats from this year's roster?

We might see a couple retirements, maybe 45 appears a little high. maybe low 40's, but I think this will be the new NFL with teams retaining their own players going with the known commodity versus the unknown. of course the bad teams with alot of money will throw alot of cash around in hopes of the quick fix.

can't wait to see the colts lose some players since they are so so close to the cap.

 

[cstjohn17]

I struggled with adding new FA and finding places for the draft picks. It seems almost unrealistic to see such little roster turnover. Of my 53 for next year, I only had 3 new Patriots from former NFL teams (Drew Bennett, Todd Wade, and London Fletcher-Baker), and 5 draft picks (Darius Walker, Robert Meachem, Patrick Willis, Reggie Nelson, and Dameyion Hughes). The other draft picks I added to the PS as well as a few other Pats (like Mills).

I think 45 is to low, they have 14 UFAs alone, plus cuts and possible retirements, etc.

Draft - If the Pats get Darius Walker, Robert Meachem, Patrick Willis, Reggie Nelson, and Dameyion Hughes it would be the draft of the century. Last I checked Meachem, Willis, Nelson, and Hughes are all first rounders. My math says we have 2 first round picks not 4.

Also I think it is unlikely that Wade gets signed to the Pats after taking Rodney out. I didn't think it was that dirty of a play but it could hurt the locker room when Harrison beats him to a pulp with a knee brace.

 

[tatepatsfan]

Wade is Todd Wade who is an OL, not Bobby Wade.

And I believe Meachem is late 1st or 2nd (where I had him drafted) and Hughes as a late 2nd or 3rd rounder (where I had him drafted).

 

[ATippett56]

Wade is Todd Wade who is an OL, not Bobby Wade.

And I believe Meachem is late 1st or 2nd (where I had him drafted) and Hughes as a late 2nd or 3rd rounder (where I had him drafted).

Your draft is COMPLETELY UNREALISTIC! First, Patriots won't even come close to Reggie Nelson with the 24th overall selection in the 2007 NFL draft. Daymeion Hughes and Robert Meachem are both rated first round draft picks. At best, the Patriots could possibly obtain in the first round linebacker Patrick Willis and free safety Michael Griffin. By the time the Patriots select in the second round, both cornerback Daymeion Hughes and wide receiver Robert Meachem will be long gone.

 

[NoCal Patriot]

During The Belichick-Pioli Era We have averaged 14 new faces per year on The Club.I see no reason to expect anything differently this year.

 

[ATippett56]

I struggled with adding new FA and finding places for the draft picks.

Currently, the New England Patriots only have 40 players under contract for the 2007 NFL season.

http://www.patscap.com/futureyears.html

This does not take into account possible retirements of Tedy Bruschi and Corey Dillon. Also, the following players may not even be on the New England Patriots roster for the following season:

Mel Mitchell
Tebucky Jones
Chad Scott

Of the ERFA, Mike Wright and Eric Alexander will most likely be extended while the others are extemely questionable.

http://www.patscap.com/patsfreeagency.html

 

[everlong]

Your draft is COMPLETELY UNREALISTIC! First, Patriots won't even come close to Reggie Nelson with the 24th overall selection in the 2007 NFL draft. Daymeion Hughes and Robert Meachem are both rated first round draft picks. At best, the Patriots could possibly obtain in the first round linebacker Patrick Willis and free safety Michael Griffin. By the time the Patriots select in the second round, both cornerback Daymeion Hughes and wide receiver Robert Meachem will be long gone.

Every year there's a Will Poole (4th) or Kelley Washington (3rd) who projected as a first round pick, top of the second at worst, that falls to the 3rd or 4th round.

I'm not saying any of these players will drop that far but you never know. I wouldn't be shocked if at least two of them slipped into the second round.

 

[ATippett56]

Of my 53 for next year, I only had 3 new Patriots from former NFL teams (Drew Bennett)

First compare Drew Bennett's career numbers to David Givens. Then ask yourself the following question:

If David Givens received $24 million for 5 years, isn't Drew Bennett worth more?

 

[ATippett56]

Every year there's a Will Poole (4th) or Kelley Washington (3rd) who projected as a first round pick, top of the second at worst, that falls to the 3rd or 4th round.

I'm not saying any of these players will drop that far but you never know. I wouldn't be shocked if at least two of them slipped into the second round.

You need a subscription to NFL Draft Scout because you are obviously misinformed.

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/

 

[everlong]

Daymeion Hughes
Robert Meachem
Patrick Willis
Michael Griffin

I'll bet you at least one of these players falls to the second round.

 

[ATippett56]

Every year there's a Will Poole (4th) or Kelley Washington (3rd) who projected as a first round pick, top of the second at worst, that falls to the 3rd or 4th round.

I'm not saying any of these players will drop that far but you never know. I wouldn't be shocked if at least two of them slipped into the second round.

Will Poole was rated at best a second round draft pick not top of the second at worst:

Name: Will Poole
College: Southern Cal Number: 28
Height: 5-10 Weight: 194
Position: CB Pos2:
Class/Draft Year: Sr/2004
40 Time: 4.47 40 Low: 40 High:
Projected Round: 2 Stock:
Rated number 4 out of 114 CB's

The reason Will Poole dropped in the draft was because of poor 40 yard times during the Pro Day workouts:

04/17/04 - USC senior cornerback WILL POOLE... weighed in at 193 pounds... was 184 pounds at first Pro Day... 194 pounds at the Combine... ran averaged 4.55 in the 40... fastest time was 4.50 and the slowest was 4.60

Kelley Washington was rated at best bottom of the second round draft pick:

Name: *Kelley Washington
College: Tennessee Number: 15
Height: 6-3 Weight: 223
Position: WR Pos2:
Class/Draft Year: Jr/2003
40 Time: 4.41 40 Low: 40 High:
Projected Round: 2-3
Rated number 8 out of 90 WR's

Neither of these players were rated first round draft picks.

 

[ATippett56]

Daymeion Hughes
Robert Meachem
Patrick Willis
Michael Griffin

I'll bet you at least one of these players falls to the second round.

Not where the Patriots will be drafting at number 60.

 

[tatepatsfan]

Check out nfldraftcountdown.com


They don't have the info up for Meachem yet, but they have him ranked as the 7th best WR. I highly doubt 7 get taken in the 1st round. I'm not saying I necessarily agree with their assessment, but if he is indeed the 7th best, I'm 100% certain he doesn't go in the 1st.

Hughes is listed as a day one pick. The specifically list 1st rounders, so to me again that means 2nd or 3rd rounder.

Nelson is ranked as their 2nd best safety (behind Landry, which again I don't agree with). But if he is the 2nd best, it is not unreasonable to him falling to 24.

Of course I am being optimistic with my projection, but my picks are not unreasonable.

 

[ATippett56]

Check out nfldraftcountdown.com


They don't have the info up for Meachem yet, but they have him ranked as the 7th best WR. I highly doubt 7 get taken in the 1st round. I'm not saying I necessarily agree with their assessment, but if he is indeed the 7th best, I'm 100% certain he doesn't go in the 1st.

Hughes is listed as a day one pick. The specifically list 1st rounders, so to me again that means 2nd or 3rd rounder.

Nelson is ranked as their 2nd best safety (behind Landry, which again I don't agree with). But if he is the 2nd best, it is not unreasonable to him falling to 24.

Of course I am being optimistic with my projection, but my picks are not unreasonable.

NFL Draft Countdown is probably the worst site on the internet for draft rankings. Best example of this flawed analysis is Scott Wright's 2001 running back evalutions:

http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/archive/2001/01rankings.html#rb

Here is another example of his joke rating system:

http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/archive/2006/06rankings.html

LenDale White rated ahead of the following running backs:
Laurence Maroney
Maurice Drew
Joseph Addai

 

[tatepatsfan]

I think they are pretty reliable, and obviously they got those rankings pretty wrong, but I'm also certain that every "expert" misses from time to time.


Anyways, my question on the thread was whether or not people saw it realistic that we only see around 8 new patriots on the squad of 53 next season.

14 is the average I guess, so maybe a few of the guys I have at the end of my roster get swapped for some others. I really hope we bring Samuel and Graham back.

 

[ATippett56]

I think they are pretty reliable, and obviously they got those rankings pretty wrong, but I'm also certain that every "expert" misses from time to time.

If you single source your own rankings, then you are a complete fool.

Rob Rang from NFL Draft Scout
01/22/07 - Senior Bowl North Team Monday Practice Report: Of the four CB's, Daymeion Hughes' answer was heard the loudest. Hughes was spectacular Monday. He was as dominant during this practice as any cover corner I've witnessed in nearly ten years of covering the Senior Bowl. He was never challenged deep -- which is a significant caveat, as he is estimated to run in the mid 4.5s -- but he rarely allowed short and medium receptions, consistently showing the instincts, body control, and instantaneous break on the ball that caused his own coaching staff (Tampa Bay) to routinely praise him and for scouts throughout the stands to divert their attention towards him. Hughes was at his best matched one on one with receivers, but also showed sticky hands and good leaping ability in drills earlier in practice.

Name: Daymeion Hughes
College: California Number: 3
Height: 5-10 Weight: 192
Position: CB Pos2:
Class/Draft Year: Sr/2007
40 Time: 4.54 40 Low: 4.52 40 High: 4.57
Projected Round: 1 Stock:
Rated number 3 out of 218 CB's 22/2331 TOTAL

Daymeion Hughes is currently ranked the 22nd best player in the 2007 NFL draft.

 

[ATippett56]

I think they are pretty reliable, and obviously they got those rankings pretty wrong, but I'm also certain that every "expert" misses from time to time.

Wrong!

Mel Kiper:

DB Daymeion Hughes 5-10 192 California
Great anticipation, hands, instincts. Speed question. (late-Round 1)

 

[tatepatsfan]

I don't have access to espn insider or nfldraft scout

draftdaddy has him ranked as the 6th best CB

footballsfuture has him ranked as the 4th best CB and #40 overall

Point is that there is no true consensus yet because it is way too early to know exactly when a player is going to be drafted. Just as others have said in this thread, even on the day of the draft, "experts" can be pretty far off.

I was just guessing based on the information I have available to me, 3 months outside of the draft. It's all a projection, all for fun. Belichick and Pioli make the decisions and its a darn good thing they do because it obviously works out more often then not. I guess I'm just not as proficient when it comes to draft information as you are.

 

[ATippett56]

I don't have access to espn insider or nfldraft scout.

Scouts, Inc.:

Note: All Defensive Backs
North No. 29 Leon Hall DC Michigan
North No. 13 Daymeion Hughes DC California