Grid Goes Off The Deep End...But On The Record!!

[Joey007]

Um...could you clarify, please?

That's kind of looking like a lose/lose for me.

I meant wrong. Now if you excuse me I'm going to hit my head on a file cabinet now. :bricks:

 

[ATippett56]

Danger! ... Danger! ... Danger Will Robinson!

Patrick "Lost in Space" Chung patrols the New England Patriots defensive secondary!

 

[Off The Grid]

Danger! ... Danger! ... Danger Will Robinson!

Patrick "Lost in Space" Chung patrols the New England Patriots defensive secondary!

He does??

...Then somebody should probably tell'm.

 

[Creative Username]

He does??

...Then somebody should probably tell'm.

I'm not entirely sure that he understands the concept of stopping a pass play.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Grid, your post is a tribute to the miracles of modern pharmacology. The fact that you posted it in the middle of the day suggests a lifestyle that the rest of us poor idiots who are tied to work-a-day jobs and responsibilities can only envy. Thank you for letting us live vicariously through you.

Based on this thread, if your life were a movie, it would be titled "Goodbye, Boston," the punch line would be "Chemicals!" and Mrs. Robinson would be smokin' hot!






(BTW, put me down for $10 if you get the 20,000 to one booked.)

 

[Off The Grid]

Grid, your post is a tribute to the miracles of modern pharmacology. The fact that you posted it in the middle of the day suggests a lifestyle that the rest of us poor idiots who are tied to work-a-day jobs and responsibilities can only envy. Thank you for letting us live vicariously through you.

Based on this thread, if your life were a movie, it would be titled "Goodbye, Boston," the punch line would be "Chemicals!" and Mrs. Robinson would be smokin' hot!






(BTW, put me down for $10 if you get the 20,000 to one booked.)

That's what I'm talkin' about!! :rocker:

I don't care if you Cats agree with me, or not...

All I ask is that if you're gonna defenestrate my @$$...do it with Style!! Well played, Brother 74!!

And, yes, Mrs Robinson is.

 

[mayoclinic]

IF you don't mind, i'm gonna use the line "the verminous, pestilential scum" . That is bloody brilliant! Can't wait to call someone that!

There are certainly lots of deserving candidates.

 

[mayoclinic]

Time to break out the Thread Blocker Application, Boys!!

Outrageously Ludicrous Prediction Alert!!

The New EngLand FootBall Patriots' Record 21 Game Winning Streak Will Get Eclipsed in the next 16 Months by...The ( Currently 3-3 ) New EngLand FootBall Patriots!! Hah!!

And, yes: I am aware that the Colts possess the longest regular season winning streak.

It's just that, well...I don't care.

If it wasn't for those pesky PlayOff Games, the Colts' "record" might actually matter.

Alas...It does not.

Wailing & Gnashing of Teeth

Reviewing the almost universal Wailing & Gnashing of Teeth that I am bemused to observe on the Message Boards of PatsFans.com ~ and which History assures me are highly representative of what I might hear on the AirWaves, were I inclined to listen ~ it seems clear that the general consensus is that the Patriots are destined for The Abyss.

In other words: This team ~ so the prevailing "wisdom" seems to hold ~ is fatally flawed: Other maladies aside, the Secondary sucks, and we are destined to fall victim to the first pass-oriented, high-flying Offense that we meet in the PlayOffs...if we even make the PlayOffs.

Is that about right?

As such, I am fairly certain that what I have to say today will be met with almost universal contempt and scorn.

And even the more objective and kindly Souls will most likely shake their heads indulgently and wonder how many drinks I've had at this early hour.

...And not without good reason.

Read the next part only if you're really bored!!

20,000 to 1!!

So here it is:

I would be very happy to bet ~ should Vegas come up with a Line on it ~ that, within the next 16 months, the New EngLand Patriots will see their all-time record 21 Game Winning Streak broken...by the New England Patriots!!

Considering that we're currently 3-3, and that it seems, in the wake of Russell Wilson's remarkable success, that my GrandMother could put up 300 Yards on us in a given week...what do you suppose the Vegas Line on my lunatic prediction coming true would be??

Well, 62.5% to the 21st Power on your Calculator (.625 Y to the X 21) gives about 20,000 to 1.

That sounds about right, yes?

That implies, in the wake of our 3-3 start, an average of a 62.5% chance each of winning of 21 Games in a row.

Including PlayOffs.

The real Formula would be far more complicated, of course, but I'm just looking for a ball park figure.

62.5% implies about a 10-6 record, this year and next, and an equal advantage in any given PlayOff Game.

Given our 3-3 start, and the current public mood ~ which of course is the dominant consideration when the constituents of Vegas set their Lines ~ that sounds about right to me.

And of course The House has to consider its OverHead...so a practical Line ~ were I to try to establish one ~ would likely be closer to, say, 10,000 to 1. On a practical basis, that actually makes sense for both Parties: I'm quite sure that the vast majority of such Long Shot Bets go uncovered. That is to say: The House covers them, themselves.

Why would they do so? Well, because they've calculated the practical odds ~ and 20,000 to 1 is probably pretty close to what they'd come up with ~ and've slanted the table dramatically in their favor: 10K to 1 being the PayOff.

Any Accountant or BookKeeper will tell you: cover enough such Bets, and you'll make tons of Money, even assuming that ~ every once in a while ~ the LongShot hits.

The difference between the real Odds and the Odds they pay the occasional Winner...is what makes their Profit.

All of which is to say: By all means give me grief if this spectacular Long Shot fails to hit.

All I ask is: let us just remember how dramatic the odds are against it coming true.

Well...at least according to most.

Arguments in Support of my Latest Insanity, Part 1

1 ~ Most Fans continue to make the foolish mistake of extrapolating mediocre starts under Coach Belichick: 3-3 does not necessarily mean we're going 8-8. Yet many react precisely that way...and worse!!

2 ~ The last time we started 3-3 ~ 2005 ~ we finished 10-6...And that was with an aging team:

~ PB Corey Dillon sucked that year: one year after'is 1635 Yard Swan Song, he produced 733 Yards on 3.5 YPC.
~ We went from 7th in Rushing Yards to 24th, as the Offense became One Dimensional...as it would remain.
~ MF Teddy Ice Cold Bruschi returned, and heroically...but never again attained his pre-Stroke Level.

Even so, that team might very well've won it all, if not for an epidemic of injuries to our Offensive Backs.

Yet I highly doubt that the majority thought we were anything but fodder, after that 3-3 start. Yes?

3 ~ The 2002 team started 3-3, and were robbed ~ as the 2008 team would be ~ by the unfathomably asinine TieBreaking Rules that completely ignore the only other TieBreaker ~ besides Head to Head ~ that matters worth a Damn: Strength of Schedule. Why that is, I cannot possibly imagine: Strength of Schedule quite obviously measures who faced tougher competition and truly earned their Record. The other TieBreakers are garbage.

4 ~ The only other time we started 3-3 under Bill The Mad (Genius) was of course in 2001.

In all fairness, the Super Bowl was the last thing on my mind, back then.

But the point is: overreacting to poor starts is incredibly foolish, given Mad Bill's Body of Work:

5 ~ The 2001 Team went 0-2 and 1-3...and then went 12-2 and won the Super Bowl!!

6 ~ The 2003 Team went 0-1 and 2-2...and then went 21-0 and won two Super Bowls!!

7 ~ The 2005 Team went 5-5...and then suddenly went 5-0 to clinch a PlayOff spot.

8 ~ The 2006 Team went 6-3...and then went 8-1 before having a Super Bowl stolen from them.

9 ~ The 2008 Team went 7-5...and then went 4-0 and were quite possibly the best team in the League ~ under a backup QB most of us had wanted cut, a week before he got the job ~ before being screwed by TieBreakers.

10 ~ And the 2011 Team went 5-3...before going 10-0 and coming within an hair of winning it all.

Point: If you write us off, based on what we've seen the first 6 weeks, you are being incredibly foolish.

And, indeed...

If you count us out of the Elite, based on what we've seen the first 6 weeks, you are being incredibly foolish.

Why so conservative, Brother Grid. Why not go for the Wizard of Westwood's all time 88 game winning streak?

Seriously, the thought has crossed my mind that the Pats has the NFL and the media right where they want them:

- We've lost 3 games by a total of 4 points, 2 of them on the road, and 2 of them out of conference. That's a missed FG, a questionable FG, and one bad pass play away from being 6-0. That's keeping the media (and board) asking "what's wrong" with the team and giving them a huge chip on their shoulder. A 3-3 record is keeping the Pats from being prohibitive early favorites, which would put enormous pressure and expectations on a young team too early, and giving the team time to develop and mature.
- As has been pointed out by others, how teams start is increasingly less valuable in the NFL. The 2009 Giants started 5-0 and failed to make the playoffs. The 2001 Pats team started 5-5 before winning their last 10 games. The 2005 Steelers, 2007 Giants, 2010 Packers and 2011 Giants all started slow and had to fight their way into the playoffs before winning it all.
- There are few if any "elite" teams, especially in the AFC. Texas is 5-1 but looked sluggish against the Jets and got blown out by Green Bay at home, and has lost Brian Cushing for the season. They have little playoff experience. Baltimore is 5-1 but barely won several games and has lost Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb for the season, and their defense looks awful. Pittsburgh looks old and inconsistent, and their OL is in tatters. San Diego had an atrocious collapse against Denver.
- The Pats 2 most difficult remaining games, against Houston and San Francisco, are at home. The Jets (twice), Miami (twice), Buffalo (home), Jacksonville, Indy and St. Louis (London) are all eminently winnable. Not gimmes, but certainly winnable.

The bottom line is that I still believe that the talent base on this team is the best since the 2003-2004 SB years, and the best in the NFL. It's a young team, and the limited preseason along with some key injuries probably contributed to some early problems which need to be corrected. But unlike the 2009 team, there is no attitude problem, and I don't see anything to make me believe that this team won't be able to turn the corner and go on a run like the 2010 and 2011 teams did, both of which went 8-0 the second half of the season. It would take a lot of things getting fixed, but it wouldn't shock me to see this team win out the rest of the way and get to the SB, which would take 12-13 consecutive wins. If that happens, then I think we can talk about bigger predictions.

 

[AQPE]

I'll join the fraternity of the hopeful, any time. Giants twice (ouch! OUCH!) and Packers proved in the very recent past that what counts is to get the wagon rolling heading into the playoffs.

Rock on, OTG

 

[ausbacker]

I'd admire the optimism OTG but I can't see this Defense going on a meaningful win streak of record proportion.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I'd admire the optimism OTG but I can't see this Defense going on a meaningful win streak of record proportion.

"I have one word for you--Chemicals!"

The logic will be clear to you then. :rocker:

 

[Joker]

Look...you post defenestrate on a sports thread, I GOTTA believe in everything you say, Grid...now all we need is Mrs. Sexy Wrecksie to log in and explain how she demasculates Blubba Gutz using only a can of Dr Scholl's and a pair of tweezers...

 

[pazrul72]

OTG you know I admire your work and appreciate the hopeful attitude but I'm not sure any team in the near future is going to come close to that 21 game win streak. I agree with the idea that the patriots are one of the youngest most talented teams in the league but you are missing games like Clevland in 2010 or just this year the Cardnals game. Sometimes the best team does not win. Which is the reason I never predict 16 and 0.Every year there is at least one WTF game that ends up as a loss Miami 2004 anyone? That doesn't even take into account the teams that are at least equally as talented (Houston and San Francisco) or the extra juice in a divisional game. My prediction before the year was 13 - 3 with one loss in the division, one WTF game, and one against the big three (Balt, Hous, SF). Obviously we've already had two WTF games so I think 12 -4 is more reasonable, though 11 - 5 would not shock me. I truely think you underestimate how bad the secondary is, or how great the Offense can be. While I believe they do have the potential to score 40 on anybody until I see them do it consistently there will continue to be games that are too close for comfort or end up as losses.

 

[Avenger]

and then Onesies become a world-wide fashion trend, with "casual Fridays" becoming "Onesie Fridays".

???, Woodhead, Vereen, Bolden, Ridley, Develin

who is the on on the left?

 

[robbomango]

???, Woodhead, Vereen, Bolden, Ridley, Develin

who is the on on the left?

Jeff Demps...

 

[ausbacker]

???, Woodhead, Vereen, Bolden, Ridley, Develin

who is the on on the left?

Tupac. Honest.

 

[BananaRepublican]

If you count us out of the Elite, based on what we've seen the first 6 weeks, you are being incredibly foolish.

They're elite if you count talented teams that don't know how to close when they have control.

They remind me of the Cowboys. They have talent, they have reputation and lore, but they somehow don't seem to close.

 

[mayoclinic]

1 down, 21 to go.

 

[Avenger]

Jeff Demps...

I thought it might be him, but was unsure because if the IR thing. good to know he is still around the team.

 

[aluminum seats]

I've always been a fan of Off the Grid's pieces.

So to me, this work is a stroke of brilliance, much like everything else he writes.

So you're either Off the Grid, or his mother.

Actually, you must be his mother. Otherwise you would *&~~~~~HAVE WRITTEN ~~~like THIS.........YAY PATS!!~~~B~~~~~