Time to break out the Thread Blocker Application, Boys!!
Outrageously Ludicrous Prediction Alert!!
The New EngLand FootBall Patriots' Record 21 Game Winning Streak Will Get Eclipsed in the next 16 Months by...The ( Currently 3-3 ) New EngLand FootBall Patriots!! Hah!!
And, yes: I am aware that the Colts possess the longest
regular season winning streak.
It's just that, well...I don't
care.
If it wasn't for those pesky PlayOff Games, the Colts' "record" might actually
matter.
Alas...It does
not.
Wailing & Gnashing of Teeth
Reviewing the almost
universal Wailing & Gnashing of Teeth that I am bemused to observe on the Message Boards of PatsFans.com ~ and which History assures me are highly representative of what I might hear on the AirWaves, were I inclined to listen ~ it seems clear that the general consensus is that the Patriots are destined for
The Abyss.
In other words: This team ~ so the prevailing "wisdom" seems to hold ~ is fatally flawed: Other maladies aside, the Secondary
sucks, and we are destined to fall victim to the first pass-oriented, high-flying Offense that we meet in the PlayOffs...if we even
make the PlayOffs.
Is that about right?
As such, I am fairly certain that what I have to say today will be met with almost universal contempt and scorn.
And even the more objective and kindly Souls will most likely shake their heads indulgently and wonder how many drinks I've had at this early hour.
...And not without good reason.
Read the next part only if you're
really bored!!
20,000 to 1!!
So here it is:
I would be very happy to bet ~ should Vegas come up with a Line on it ~ that, within the next 16 months, the New EngLand Patriots will see their all-time record 21 Game Winning Streak broken...
by the New England Patriots!!
Considering that we're currently
3-3, and that it seems, in the wake of
Russell Wilson's remarkable success, that my
GrandMother could put up 300 Yards on us in a given week...what do you suppose the Vegas Line on my lunatic prediction coming true would
be??
Well, 62.5% to the 21st Power on your Calculator (.625 Y to the X 21) gives about
20,000 to 1.
That sounds about right, yes?
That implies, in the wake of our 3-3 start, an average of a 62.5% chance each of winning of 21 Games in a row.
Including PlayOffs.
The
real Formula would be far more complicated, of course, but I'm just looking for a ball park figure.
62.5% implies about a 10-6 record, this year and next, and an equal advantage in any given PlayOff Game.
Given our 3-3 start, and the current public mood ~ which of course is the dominant consideration when the constituents of Vegas set their Lines ~ that sounds about right to me.
And of course The House has to consider its OverHead...so a practical Line ~ were I to try to establish one ~ would likely be closer to, say,
10,000 to 1. On a practical basis, that actually makes sense for both Parties: I'm quite sure that the vast majority of such Long Shot Bets go
uncovered. That is to say: The
House covers them,
themselves.
Why would they do so? Well, because they've calculated the practical odds ~ and
20,000 to 1 is probably pretty close to what they'd come up with ~ and've slanted the table dramatically in their favor:
10K to 1 being the PayOff.
Any Accountant or BookKeeper will tell you: cover enough such Bets, and you'll make tons of Money, even assuming that ~ every once in a while ~ the LongShot
hits.
The difference between the
real Odds and the Odds they
pay the occasional Winner...is what makes their Profit.
All of which is to say: By all means
give me grief if this
spectacular Long Shot fails to hit.
All I ask is: let us just remember how
dramatic the odds are against it coming true.
Well...at least according to
most.
Arguments in Support of my Latest Insanity, Part 1
1 ~ Most Fans continue to make the foolish mistake of extrapolating mediocre starts under
Coach Belichick: 3-3 does not necessarily mean we're going
8-8. Yet many react
precisely that way...and
worse!!
2 ~ The last time we started
3-3 ~ 2005 ~ we finished
10-6...
And that was with an aging team:
~ PB Corey Dillon sucked that year: one year after'is
1635 Yard Swan Song, he produced
733 Yards on
3.5 YPC.
~ We went from
7th in Rushing Yards to
24th, as the Offense became One Dimensional...as it would
remain.
~ MF Teddy Ice Cold Bruschi returned, and
heroically...but never again attained his pre-Stroke Level.
Even so, that team might very well've won it
all, if not for an epidemic of injuries to our Offensive Backs.
Yet I highly doubt that the majority thought we were anything but
fodder, after that
3-3 start.
Yes?
3 ~ The
2002 team started
3-3, and were robbed ~ as the
2008 team would be ~ by the unfathomably asinine TieBreaking Rules that completely ignore the only other TieBreaker ~ besides Head to Head ~ that matters worth a Damn:
Strength of Schedule. Why that is, I cannot possibly imagine:
Strength of Schedule quite obviously measures who faced tougher competition and truly earned their Record. The other TieBreakers are
garbage.
4 ~ The only other time we started
3-3 under
Bill The Mad (Genius) was of course in
2001.
In all fairness, the
Super Bowl was the
last thing on my mind, back then.
But the point is: overreacting to poor starts is
incredibly foolish, given
Mad Bill's Body of Work:
5 ~ The
2001 Team went
0-2 and
1-3...and then went
12-2 and won the
Super Bowl!!
6 ~ The
2003 Team went
0-1 and
2-2...and then went
21-0 and won
two Super Bowls!!
7 ~ The
2005 Team went
5-5...and then suddenly went
5-0 to clinch a PlayOff spot.
8 ~ The
2006 Team went
6-3...and then went
8-1 before having a
Super Bowl stolen from them.
9 ~ The
2008 Team went
7-5...and then went
4-0 and were quite possibly
the best team in the League ~ under a backup QB most of us had wanted
cut, a week before he got the job ~ before being screwed by TieBreakers.
10 ~ And the
2011 Team went
5-3...before going
10-0 and coming within an hair of winning it
all.
Point: If you write us off, based on what we've seen the first 6 weeks, you are being
incredibly foolish.
And, indeed...
If you count us out of the
Elite, based on what we've seen the first 6 weeks, you are being incredibly foolish.