Off The Grid
Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
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- Apr 20, 2010
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Time to break out the Thread Blocker Application, Boys!! 
Outrageously Ludicrous Prediction Alert!!
The New EngLand FootBall Patriots' Record 21 Game Winning Streak Will Get Eclipsed in the next 16 Months by...The ( Currently 3-3 ) New EngLand FootBall Patriots!! Hah!!
And, yes: I am aware that the Colts possess the longest regular season winning streak.
It's just that, well...I don't care.
If it wasn't for those pesky PlayOff Games, the Colts' "record" might actually matter.
Alas...It does not.
Wailing & Gnashing of Teeth
Reviewing the almost universal Wailing & Gnashing of Teeth that I am bemused to observe on the Message Boards of PatsFans.com ~ and which History assures me are highly representative of what I might hear on the AirWaves, were I inclined to listen ~ it seems clear that the general consensus is that the Patriots are destined for The Abyss.
In other words: This team ~ so the prevailing "wisdom" seems to hold ~ is fatally flawed: Other maladies aside, the Secondary sucks, and we are destined to fall victim to the first pass-oriented, high-flying Offense that we meet in the PlayOffs...if we even make the PlayOffs.
Is that about right?
As such, I am fairly certain that what I have to say today will be met with almost universal contempt and scorn.
And even the more objective and kindly Souls will most likely shake their heads indulgently and wonder how many drinks I've had at this early hour.
...And not without good reason.
Read the next part only if you're really bored!!
20,000 to 1!!
So here it is:
I would be very happy to bet ~ should Vegas come up with a Line on it ~ that, within the next 16 months, the New EngLand Patriots will see their all-time record 21 Game Winning Streak broken...by the New England Patriots!!
Considering that we're currently 3-3, and that it seems, in the wake of Russell Wilson's remarkable success, that my GrandMother could put up 300 Yards on us in a given week...what do you suppose the Vegas Line on my lunatic prediction coming true would be??
Well, 62.5% to the 21st Power on your Calculator (.625 Y to the X 21) gives about 20,000 to 1.
That sounds about right, yes?
That implies, in the wake of our 3-3 start, an average of a 62.5% chance each of winning of 21 Games in a row.
Including PlayOffs.
The real Formula would be far more complicated, of course, but I'm just looking for a ball park figure.
62.5% implies about a 10-6 record, this year and next, and an equal advantage in any given PlayOff Game.
Given our 3-3 start, and the current public mood ~ which of course is the dominant consideration when the constituents of Vegas set their Lines ~ that sounds about right to me.
And of course The House has to consider its OverHead...so a practical Line ~ were I to try to establish one ~ would likely be closer to, say, 10,000 to 1. On a practical basis, that actually makes sense for both Parties: I'm quite sure that the vast majority of such Long Shot Bets go uncovered. That is to say: The House covers them, themselves.
Why would they do so? Well, because they've calculated the practical odds ~ and 20,000 to 1 is probably pretty close to what they'd come up with ~ and've slanted the table dramatically in their favor: 10K to 1 being the PayOff.
Any Accountant or BookKeeper will tell you: cover enough such Bets, and you'll make tons of Money, even assuming that ~ every once in a while ~ the LongShot hits.
The difference between the real Odds and the Odds they pay the occasional Winner...is what makes their Profit.
All of which is to say: By all means give me grief if this spectacular Long Shot fails to hit.
All I ask is: let us just remember how dramatic the odds are against it coming true.
Well...at least according to most.
Arguments in Support of my Latest Insanity, Part 1
1 ~ Most Fans continue to make the foolish mistake of extrapolating mediocre starts under Coach Belichick: 3-3 does not necessarily mean we're going 8-8. Yet many react precisely that way...and worse!!
2 ~ The last time we started 3-3 ~ 2005 ~ we finished 10-6...And that was with an aging team:
~ PB Corey Dillon sucked that year: one year after'is 1635 Yard Swan Song, he produced 733 Yards on 3.5 YPC.
~ We went from 7th in Rushing Yards to 24th, as the Offense became One Dimensional...as it would remain.
~ MF Teddy Ice Cold Bruschi returned, and heroically...but never again attained his pre-Stroke Level.
Even so, that team might very well've won it all, if not for an epidemic of injuries to our Offensive Backs.
Yet I highly doubt that the majority thought we were anything but fodder, after that 3-3 start. Yes?
3 ~ The 2002 team started 3-3, and were robbed ~ as the 2008 team would be ~ by the unfathomably asinine TieBreaking Rules that completely ignore the only other TieBreaker ~ besides Head to Head ~ that matters worth a Damn: Strength of Schedule. Why that is, I cannot possibly imagine: Strength of Schedule quite obviously measures who faced tougher competition and truly earned their Record. The other TieBreakers are garbage.
4 ~ The only other time we started 3-3 under Bill The Mad (Genius) was of course in 2001.
In all fairness, the Super Bowl was the last thing on my mind, back then.
But the point is: overreacting to poor starts is incredibly foolish, given Mad Bill's Body of Work:
5 ~ The 2001 Team went 0-2 and 1-3...and then went 12-2 and won the Super Bowl!!
6 ~ The 2003 Team went 0-1 and 2-2...and then went 21-0 and won two Super Bowls!!
7 ~ The 2005 Team went 5-5...and then suddenly went 5-0 to clinch a PlayOff spot.
8 ~ The 2006 Team went 6-3...and then went 8-1 before having a Super Bowl stolen from them.
9 ~ The 2008 Team went 7-5...and then went 4-0 and were quite possibly the best team in the League ~ under a backup QB most of us had wanted cut, a week before he got the job ~ before being screwed by TieBreakers.
10 ~ And the 2011 Team went 5-3...before going 10-0 and coming within an hair of winning it all.
Point: If you write us off, based on what we've seen the first 6 weeks, you are being incredibly foolish.
And, indeed...
If you count us out of the Elite, based on what we've seen the first 6 weeks, you are being incredibly foolish.
Outrageously Ludicrous Prediction Alert!!
The New EngLand FootBall Patriots' Record 21 Game Winning Streak Will Get Eclipsed in the next 16 Months by...The ( Currently 3-3 ) New EngLand FootBall Patriots!! Hah!!
And, yes: I am aware that the Colts possess the longest regular season winning streak.
It's just that, well...I don't care.
If it wasn't for those pesky PlayOff Games, the Colts' "record" might actually matter.
Alas...It does not.
Wailing & Gnashing of Teeth
Reviewing the almost universal Wailing & Gnashing of Teeth that I am bemused to observe on the Message Boards of PatsFans.com ~ and which History assures me are highly representative of what I might hear on the AirWaves, were I inclined to listen ~ it seems clear that the general consensus is that the Patriots are destined for The Abyss.
In other words: This team ~ so the prevailing "wisdom" seems to hold ~ is fatally flawed: Other maladies aside, the Secondary sucks, and we are destined to fall victim to the first pass-oriented, high-flying Offense that we meet in the PlayOffs...if we even make the PlayOffs.
Is that about right?
As such, I am fairly certain that what I have to say today will be met with almost universal contempt and scorn.
And even the more objective and kindly Souls will most likely shake their heads indulgently and wonder how many drinks I've had at this early hour.
...And not without good reason.
Read the next part only if you're really bored!!
20,000 to 1!!
So here it is:
I would be very happy to bet ~ should Vegas come up with a Line on it ~ that, within the next 16 months, the New EngLand Patriots will see their all-time record 21 Game Winning Streak broken...by the New England Patriots!!
Considering that we're currently 3-3, and that it seems, in the wake of Russell Wilson's remarkable success, that my GrandMother could put up 300 Yards on us in a given week...what do you suppose the Vegas Line on my lunatic prediction coming true would be??
Well, 62.5% to the 21st Power on your Calculator (.625 Y to the X 21) gives about 20,000 to 1.
That sounds about right, yes?
That implies, in the wake of our 3-3 start, an average of a 62.5% chance each of winning of 21 Games in a row.
Including PlayOffs.
The real Formula would be far more complicated, of course, but I'm just looking for a ball park figure.
62.5% implies about a 10-6 record, this year and next, and an equal advantage in any given PlayOff Game.
Given our 3-3 start, and the current public mood ~ which of course is the dominant consideration when the constituents of Vegas set their Lines ~ that sounds about right to me.
And of course The House has to consider its OverHead...so a practical Line ~ were I to try to establish one ~ would likely be closer to, say, 10,000 to 1. On a practical basis, that actually makes sense for both Parties: I'm quite sure that the vast majority of such Long Shot Bets go uncovered. That is to say: The House covers them, themselves.
Why would they do so? Well, because they've calculated the practical odds ~ and 20,000 to 1 is probably pretty close to what they'd come up with ~ and've slanted the table dramatically in their favor: 10K to 1 being the PayOff.
Any Accountant or BookKeeper will tell you: cover enough such Bets, and you'll make tons of Money, even assuming that ~ every once in a while ~ the LongShot hits.
The difference between the real Odds and the Odds they pay the occasional Winner...is what makes their Profit.
All of which is to say: By all means give me grief if this spectacular Long Shot fails to hit.
All I ask is: let us just remember how dramatic the odds are against it coming true.
Well...at least according to most.
Arguments in Support of my Latest Insanity, Part 1
1 ~ Most Fans continue to make the foolish mistake of extrapolating mediocre starts under Coach Belichick: 3-3 does not necessarily mean we're going 8-8. Yet many react precisely that way...and worse!!
2 ~ The last time we started 3-3 ~ 2005 ~ we finished 10-6...And that was with an aging team:
~ PB Corey Dillon sucked that year: one year after'is 1635 Yard Swan Song, he produced 733 Yards on 3.5 YPC.
~ We went from 7th in Rushing Yards to 24th, as the Offense became One Dimensional...as it would remain.
~ MF Teddy Ice Cold Bruschi returned, and heroically...but never again attained his pre-Stroke Level.
Even so, that team might very well've won it all, if not for an epidemic of injuries to our Offensive Backs.
Yet I highly doubt that the majority thought we were anything but fodder, after that 3-3 start. Yes?
3 ~ The 2002 team started 3-3, and were robbed ~ as the 2008 team would be ~ by the unfathomably asinine TieBreaking Rules that completely ignore the only other TieBreaker ~ besides Head to Head ~ that matters worth a Damn: Strength of Schedule. Why that is, I cannot possibly imagine: Strength of Schedule quite obviously measures who faced tougher competition and truly earned their Record. The other TieBreakers are garbage.
4 ~ The only other time we started 3-3 under Bill The Mad (Genius) was of course in 2001.
In all fairness, the Super Bowl was the last thing on my mind, back then.
But the point is: overreacting to poor starts is incredibly foolish, given Mad Bill's Body of Work:
5 ~ The 2001 Team went 0-2 and 1-3...and then went 12-2 and won the Super Bowl!!
6 ~ The 2003 Team went 0-1 and 2-2...and then went 21-0 and won two Super Bowls!!
7 ~ The 2005 Team went 5-5...and then suddenly went 5-0 to clinch a PlayOff spot.
8 ~ The 2006 Team went 6-3...and then went 8-1 before having a Super Bowl stolen from them.
9 ~ The 2008 Team went 7-5...and then went 4-0 and were quite possibly the best team in the League ~ under a backup QB most of us had wanted cut, a week before he got the job ~ before being screwed by TieBreakers.
10 ~ And the 2011 Team went 5-3...before going 10-0 and coming within an hair of winning it all.
Point: If you write us off, based on what we've seen the first 6 weeks, you are being incredibly foolish.
And, indeed...
If you count us out of the Elite, based on what we've seen the first 6 weeks, you are being incredibly foolish.
