Has Tom Brady lost his magic?

[Kid~Brady]

Man, between the radio, analyst and talkshows people are really thinking that Brady has finally taken that step down and has started to show his age. I personally don't think he's taken a step down but he hasn't been that same guy we all remember. Now, to be fair, he is getting older and its natural to slow down a bit. What are your thoughts on this?

Tom Brady is among the league's worst-rated quarterbacks while trying to protect a late-game lead in recent seasons.

In the past 3½ years, the Patriots have more losses by seven points or fewer (12) than they did in Brady's first seven seasons combined (10).

Lowest Total QBR With 1-Score Lead
Final 5 Min. of 4th Qtr Since 2009

Chad Henne 1.1
Alex Smith 3.5
Kevin Kolb 4.0
Matt Cassel 12.9
Tom Brady 15.0 <<

The Patriots still possess the high-powered offense that has contributed to an average margin of victory of 18.3 points. But it's the close losses that are particularly troubling.

link: Have Tom Brady and the New England Patriots lost their fourth-quarter magic? - ESPN Boston

 

[Armchair Quarterback]

He's on a team with a defense where no lead is safe. If he leads the team to a 2 TD lead, I don't see how the loss is his fault. Not saying he's entirely blameless but he's also been on the wrong end of some unbelievably bad game plans and play calling by the OC's through the years.

 

[TinhWoodhead]

when's the last time he had a 4th qtr comeback?

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I think the pressure our recent attempts at fielding a defense place on the offense, and the philosophical change this offense has undergone since 2007 are a big part of what has changed. Moreso than Brady. We've struggled to field a consistent offense with continuity beyond Welker since 2007. By the time Brady came back in 2009 Randall had already begun his farewell tour here. Nothing else panned out. Really limited his options, as BB apparently finally admitted. Although in his zeal to correct that this season they may have done more harm than good out of the gate with the Edelman experiment. While last seasons attempt to correct that was an epic failure due to Gronk's injury and the Ocho experiment.

Not to mention if Belichick had decided to just take the damn points via FG on Sunday neither media nor fans would be having these discussions.

 

[Spergon Wynn]

when's the last time he had a 4th qtr comeback?

Against Dallas last year?

Anyway, I remember hearing these things in 2009...

 

[BradyManny]

I think situationally, this offense is still trying to find an identity when it is trying to close games.

When it's objective is to score, it does.

When its objective is to use clock, it doesn't.

McDaniels, Belichick and Brady have to figure this one out, because it will likely be the difference in their season. You can point to the defensive struggles, obviously, but the team overcame those last year to come within a couple plays from winning the Super Bowl.

 

[NinjaZX6R]

when's the last time he had a 4th qtr comeback?

Miami 2011 2nd game. Prior to that was Dallas 2011.

 

[BradyManny]

Against Dallas last year?

Anyway, I remember hearing these things in 2009...

Against Dallas; he also effectively did it against the Giants in the regular season, but the defense turned around and handed the victory to Eli.

 

[Kid~Brady]

Against Dallas last year?

Anyway, I remember hearing these things in 2009...

I agree.

I remember hearing these things but to me, they were backed with little evidence and spewed by angry fans about the playoff loss. But, this year Brady has really struggled at times. He threw a red-zone pick last week and the intentional grounding calls are becoming his MO sometimes.

I haven't lost faith in him as our QB, he's still the best to me. Maybe Rodgers is a little better at the moment but Brady is the guy for me but you have to admit his stuggles lately.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

It was never magic . It was all hard work and taking advantage of opportunity.

With that being said, does anyone feel comfortable with a 6 point or less lead in the 4th quarter? Probably not. For some reason it just seems like they can't end the game (either side of the ball) without giving opponents a chance to stay in it.

I think they either get too vanilla and become predictable or they step away from what's working. I for one, don't want to see them in the 5 wide unless it's the perfect counter to a defense. With the running game, play action has to be viable. Commitment to the run, play action, should keep defenses honest.

 

[BSR]

when's the last time he had a 4th qtr comeback?

He had two last year. Once against Baltimore in the playoffs and once against Dallas. Keep in perspective that he also doesn't get many opportunities for comebacks. They last 4 games all of last year.

 

[SacPete1]

Brady's 2 picks and intentional grounding were the things I was most concerned about from last week which are execution items and will happen from time to time and have. The media is there to fill time between games and compete against other media outlets for viewership and as such will throw whatever they can against a wall and see what sticks. The 'magic' that is referred to is overblown to begin with. The consistency of a player's performance for an entire game and game to game determines the quality of the player and none more so that the QB. Has any QB been better than Brady over his career using that basis for evaluation? Tough to argue anyone has been better but its not sexy enough to use that as a basis. Its the most recent games that are mostly used and within those, the last few minutes. Peyton had a great 2nd half against the Chargers but the Broncos defense and Rivers' poor execution had as much to do with the comeback as him.
I actually like it when Brady is openly questionned in the media as he tends to play with such an intense focus and fire subsequently.

 

[Kontradiction]

when's the last time he had a 4th qtr comeback?

Dallas, 2011.

 

[Patjew]

Against Dallas; he also effectively did it against the Giants in the regular season, but the defense turned around and handed the victory to Eli.

Yeah, I've seen that before.

 

[BradyManny]

Dallas, 2011.

Again, he did the same thing two weeks later vs. the Giants.

In both cases though - we're talking about two things. There is maintaining a lead; and there is playing from behind in a two minute situation. The two couldn't be any different. I don't think anybody worries about this offense in a two minute situation.

If someone wants to point to SB42 or SB46, I'd ask them to look up the expected win percentage the moment the Patriots took over the ball with 30-40 seconds at their own 20. Those were not two minute drills, those were desperation attempts. Brady can still run a two minute drill to end a game, even if he's asked to do it less often since they play ahead so much (vs Ravens 07, vs Bills 09, vs Cowboys 11, vs Giants regular season 11).

The bigger issue is how the offense fares when MAINTAINING/PROTECTING a lead. That's what it's struggled to do. And the fact is, in the fourth quarter of a game, it's easier to be productive from behind than ahead for a passing offense. This team has to figure it out.

 

[Kontradiction]

Again, he did the same thing two weeks later vs. the Giants.

In both cases though - we're talking about two things. There is maintaining a lead; and there is playing from behind in a two minute situation. The two couldn't be any different. I don't think anybody worries about this offense in a two minute situation.

If someone wants to point to SB42 or SB46, I'd ask them to look up the expected win percentage the moment the Patriots took over the ball with 30-40 seconds at their own 20. Those were not two minute drills, those were desperation attempts. Brady can still run a two minute drill to end a game, even if he's asked to do it less often since they play ahead so much (vs Ravens 07, vs Bills 09, vs Cowboys 11, vs Giants regular season 11).

The bigger issue is how the offense fares when MAINTAINING/PROTECTING a lead. That's what it's struggled to do. And the fact is, in the fourth quarter of a game, it's easier to be productive from behind than ahead for a passing offense. This team has to figure it out.

I only count a 4th quarter comeback as one that results in a team win when discussing this issue. In the case of the Giants game, the defense completely and utterly **** the bed on the last drive. I don't fault Brady for that, but I don't give him credit for a 4th quarter comeback there.

Agree with the rest of your post though.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

He is a better QB than he was in 2004 than when he was collecting his third ring.

He was the MVP two years ago,
last year passed for the second most yards in NFL history,
and is now undoubtedly the key player and leader of the #1 offense in the game .

Chill.

 

[PatsDeb]

Nope, not to me he hasn't. The team just has to play a little better as a whole. Let's have some faith.

 

[BSR]

In the past 3½ years, the Patriots have more losses by seven points or fewer (12) than they did in Brady's first seven seasons combined (10).

I think this is an issue of small sample size. If you look at the close games that Brady has played in over his career, there really aren't many.

Close games by year (win/loss by 7 points)

• 
  Year #W L
  2001 6 4 2
  2002 5 3 2
  2003 8 7 1
  2004 3 2 1
  2005 5 4 1
  2006 6 4 2
  2007 3 3 0
  2009 8 3 5
  2010 4 4 0
  2011 6 4 2
  2012 3 0 3

I really don't really see a trend here. Its more a couple of outliers that stand out. In 2003 the pats played a bunch of close games and won most of them. In 2009 they played a bunch of close games and lost most of them. This year they are losing most of them. However, in between 2009 and this year were two years that pretty much fell in line historically.

One thing is for certain, they certainly have lost more close games this year than most other, but I think that has less to do with Brady. Heck, if it weren't for Ghost missing a relatively easy kick I don't think anyone is talking about this right now. This reaction has more to do with last Sunday's game, which was a poor game for him, than any sort of trend that we have seen coming.

 

[Jackson 2]

....no....