Some analysis: The importance of the running game/offensive balance

[MoneyFX]

These stats may not be the most important, but it has been obvious in the losses. We all know the defense is not good.
Patriots records when:
Rushing for 100+ yds: 3-0
Rushing for under 100 yds: 0-3
Passing for 300+ yds: 1-3

As the game got deeper, Brady's throws started to get worse and worse as he was missing and was getting picked off. Because of the poor play by the defense, Brady had to shoulder the load and he got worn down it seemed. The running game is needed for NE to put the game away and kill clock while keeping Brady fresh. In the wins, Brady only threw for over 300 once, but he was more efficient 6 TDs, 0 INTs. The point is, relying on Brady to carry the team won't get the team far. But even so, Brady made some bad throws in bad areas. When the team plays well in most phases, passing, running, passing D, run D, etc., they win. And the lack of a running game allowed Seattle to come back instead of NE trying to milk the clock down. I know Seattle was playing to take the run away, but 58 passes to 26 runs is too much. Too much for Brady to handle. Brady is 35 and still has to carry the team with his passing??? More areas of the team has to step up or else this team won't go far.

Go Patriots! Stay optimistic.

 

[CityOfChampions]

I think it was a mix of Brady's arm getting tired and the rain, even though neither of those things effected Wilson, but hey he's young so lol.

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

they can't run against the better defenses(Arizona, Baltimore, And Seattle)

stats are great but they padded their stats against non elite run defenses.

coaching and qb play were to blame too. but when you have your qb throw that much the chance for mistakes increases.

the 2ndary is pitiful. i don't see much leadership back their.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Even though I'd like to see more commitment to running, I don't think you necessarily NEED to run it more. But you should at least have the threat of the run there. I think the offense is damn near unstoppable in the 2 TE- 2 WR set where you can use the PAP to your advantage and neutralize pass rushers.

Putting Brady back in the spread and making yourself 1 dimensional right off the bat is not the way to go, completely dumbfoundd and frustrated that we went back to that today after the success we've been having with the balanced attack. I just hope that 2nd half was a lesson to JMD.

 

[letekro]

Even though I'd like to see more commitment to running, I don't think you necessarily NEED to run it more. But you should at least have the threat of the run there. I think the offense is damn near unstoppable in the 2 TE- 2 WR set where you can use the PAP to your advantage and neutralize pass rushers.

Putting Brady back in the spread and making yourself 1 dimensional right off the bat is not the way to go, completely dumbfoundd and frustrated that we went back to that today after the success we've been having with the balanced attack. I just hope that 2nd half was a lesson to JMD.

Problem with the 2TE-set right now is that Hern and Gronk are way below 100% and aren't the dynamic playmakers they are when healthy.

If these guys (and Lloyd) can get healthy, I'm not that worried about the offense.

 

[ausbacker]

they can't run against the better defenses(Arizona, Baltimore, And Seattle)

stats are great but they padded their stats against non elite run defenses.

coaching and qb play were to blame too. but when you have your qb throw that much the chance for mistakes increases.

the 2ndary is pitiful. i don't see much leadership back their.

Woodhead was running just fine against the Seahawks. It was the Patriots own stupidity that got away from that.

Bolden and Woodhead were fine where Ridley was not.

 

[RhodyPatriot]

These stats may not be the most important, but it has been obvious in the losses. We all know the defense is not good.
Patriots records when:
Rushing for 100+ yds: 3-0
Rushing for under 100 yds: 0-3
Passing for 300+ yds: 1-3

As the game got deeper, Brady's throws started to get worse and worse as he was missing and was getting picked off. Because of the poor play by the defense, Brady had to shoulder the load and he got worn down it seemed. The running game is needed for NE to put the game away and kill clock while keeping Brady fresh. In the wins, Brady only threw for over 300 once, but he was more efficient 6 TDs, 0 INTs. The point is, relying on Brady to carry the team won't get the team far. But even so, Brady made some bad throws in bad areas. When the team plays well in most phases, passing, running, passing D, run D, etc., they win. And the lack of a running game allowed Seattle to come back instead of NE trying to milk the clock down. I know Seattle was playing to take the run away, but 58 passes to 26 runs is too much. Too much for Brady to handle. More areas of the team has to step up or else this team won't go far.

Go Patriots! Stay optimistic.

A game like today is EXACTLY the kind of day when you run the ball. Got the lead, the weather is bad, want to run time off the clock, take the pressure off your struggling QB. This is exactly the scenario when the run game NEEDS to be forced down the other teams throat. The Seattle run defense is tough?? Good. Love the challenge and you'd better believe so would the O-line and the RB's. This team needs to get to a point where THEY, the New England Patriots, are going to dictate the game they want to play at the line of scrimmage. The Patriots give these defenses far too much respect.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Woodhead was running just fine against the Seahawks. It was the Patriots own stupidity that got away from that.

Bolden and Woodhead were fine where Ridley was not.

True, the overall #'s don't look great but there were instances where we'd have a couple successful runs, then come out in the spread the next 2-3 plays. It's hard to know whether you can run it on good D's or not if you hardly even bother to stick with it or get into a rhythm.

 

[upstater1]

When you're ahead, you run. Hence more running yards.
When you're behind, you throw. Hence more passing yards.

You'll find the vast majority of teams win when they run for a lot and lose when they pass for a lot.

That being said, New England should exploit the opposition as best they can. In this case, it was against the pass, because the Seahawk were lousy against it.

This is the same thing that bugged me in the Super Bowl. The Giants sucked against the pass and played great against the run. Patriots from their own 5 yard line got it down to the Giants 40 quickly late in the 2nd half, and what did they do? Jumbo package, run it up the gut, 3 yard loss. Stupid. Coupled with Welker's drop on the next play, and Brady is 3rd and 13, nearly converted. But that's how you lose games.

Patriots should have gone with what worked late in the game, not runs to make Seattle call timeouts.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

When you're ahead, you run. Hence more running yards.
When you're behind, you throw. Hence more passing yards.

You'll find the vast majority of teams win when they run for a lot and lose when they pass for a lot.

That being said, New England should exploit the opposition as best they can. In this case, it was against the pass, because the Seahawk were lousy against it.

Um...

The Patriots led most of the game and still Brady threw 58 times, most in his career. This goes against what you are claiming. If they were leading they should have run more, as you said, where in this game they did not.

Also, Seattle has a nasty secondary. They only gave up 14 a game going into the game, with one of the best secondaries in the league. Big physical corners and a ball hawk free safety. That did not help support why we passed it 58 times...

 

[supafly]

I don't have any problem with the thought that we were forced to throw away the run vs one of the best rush defenses in the NFL.

We'll likely see more of the same in 2 weeks when we play the STL Rams.

I don't think the running game was going to do too much, but there will always be times when some of the plays are more effective than others; hence some of Woodhead's success.

As a whole I don't think that running was going to work today, at least not against that defense. Apparently, BB felt the same way.

My one and only ENORMOUS gripe in the whole game (besides the obvious ridiculous safety play that continues to go along with the already lousy CB play) was that we needed to be conservative and should have run when Brady threw the 2nd pick in the endzone from the 6 yd line.

That should have been a "okay we've got the lead, but let's try and run here or at least kick a FG to secure some points" type of situation.

I suppose better balance could certainly be argued, at least in some situations.

 

[upstater1]

Um...

The Patriots led most of the game and still Brady threw 58 times, most in his career. This goes against what you are claiming. If they were leading they should have run more, as you said, where in this game they did not.

Also, Seattle has a nasty secondary. They only gave up 14 a game going into the game, with one of the best secondaries in the league. Big physical corners and a ball hawk free safety. That did not help support why we passed it 58 times...

I was responding to the prior post showing stats of multiple games, not one game.

After 3 quarters, Brady was 32-47 for 325 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions.

This obviously shows that the Patriots were exploiting a Seattle weakness.

Honestly, do you think the Patriots should be doing better than 70% completions for 325 yards in 3 qtrs?

Then, before falling behind, the Patriots ran 10 times and passed 10 times in the 4th qtr.

 

[Marqui]

I was responding to the prior post showing stats of multiple games, not one game.

After 3 quarters, Brady was 32-47 for 325 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions.

This obviously shows that the Patriots were exploiting a Seattle weakness.

Honestly, do you think the Patriots should be doing better than 70% completions for 325 yards in 3 qtrs?

Then, before falling behind, the Patriots ran 10 times and passed 10 times in the 4th qtr.

Pass defense isn't Seattle's weakness. They actually have the best pass defense in the league.

 

[DaBruinz]

Pass defense isn't Seattle's weakness. They actually have the best pass defense in the league.

Yes.. It showed today that they have the best pass defense in the league.

You don't get lit up for nearly 400 yard by having the best pass defense in the league. Sorry..

The only reason the Seahawks had the "best pass defense" (which is wasn't. It was 4th) was because they hadn't played but one other team with a competent QB.

The problem, as I saw it today, is that the Pats got away from the play-action in the 2nd half and, in particular the 4th quarter and it killed them. They were telegraphing what they were going to do and that allowed the Seahawks to defend accordingly.

 

[mgteich]

You take what a defense gives you. Look at the game (and the stats) after 3 quarters. Brady and the passing offense were doing fine.

I would have preferred that Brady passed MORE in the 4th quarter, rather than less.

To suggest that we should have run more because we have won more when we do is simply a gross misuse of statistics and poor analysis.

 

[MoneyFX]

You take what a defense gives you. Look at the game (and the stats) after 3 quarters. Brady and the passing offense were doing fine.

I would have preferred that Brady passed MORE in the 4th quarter, rather than less.

To suggest that we should have run more because we have won more when we do is simply a gross misuse of statistics and poor analysis.

The point is that Brady should not be throwing all of those passes, even when he struggles late. I was saying that if they had a little bit of a run game, it would take the pressure off Tom to make plays to win, because of the ineffectiveness of the defense. That's why I said that THESE MAY NOT THE MOST IMPORTANT STATS at the beginning of the post. It's not so much about the 100+ yds, it's more about not being as over-reliant on Brady to overcome a ridiculously bad defense. ************.