Predicted 07 Roster - January 25-07 (re-post)

[cstjohn17]

I just put this in the draft forum, and likely broke every rule of internet forum etiquette but with all the offseason talk I think it is just as applicable here. Thoughts, realistic? crazy? other ideas?
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I will change this 20 more times before September but as of now, here is my projected 53 man roster, draft picks and FA signings (attached in zipped Excel file).

Summary

Free Agents
- Samuel get signed, everything changes if this doesn't happen ( 6 Years, $34, $11 Bonus)
- Napolean Harris is signed and projected to start at ILB ( 5 Years, $22, $5 Bonus)
- Graham leaves, injury history makes it too risky to sign long term

Draft Summary
- heavy focus on defense on day 1, Bradley and Burgess are brought in, each has the potential to play OLB or ILB

2007 Draft
1 - Round 1 WR - Bowe (LSU)
1 - Round 1 S - Griffin (Texas)
2 - Round 2 OLB/ILB - Bradley (Nebraska)
3 - Round 3 OLB/ILB -Burgess (Michigan)
4 - Round 4 CB - Smith (Florida)
5 (Comp) Round 5 RB - Snelling (Virginia)
6 - Round 6 OT\OG - Barbre (Missouri Southern State)
6 (Comp) Round 6 TE - Herold (Nebraska-Omaha)
7 - Round 7 S - Mitchell (Ohio State)

UFAs , ERFAs, RFAs
- all tendered including Gay

Projected Roster (Warning, this will look like crap, use the Excel file for a better view)
Pos - Depth1 Depth2 Depth3
QB - Brady, Cassel
LWR - Caldwell, WR - Bowe (LSU), Kight
RWR - Gaffney, Jackson
LT - Light,
LG - Mankins, Yates
C - Koppen, Hochstein
RG - Neal,
RT - Kaczur, O'Callaghan
TE - Watson, Thomas, TE - Herold (Nebraska-Omaha)
FB - Evans
RB - Maroney, FAULK, RB - Snelling (Virginia)
LDE - Warren, Wright
NT - Wilfork, Smith
RDE - Seymour, Green, Hill
LOLB - COLVIN, OLB/ILB - Bradley (Nebraska)
LILB - BRUSCHI, Alexander, Izzo
RILB - Harris OLB/ILB -Burgess (Michigan), Mays
ROLB - VRABEL, Woods
LCB - Samuel, Gay, CB - Smith (Florida)
SS - HARRISON, Sanders, Mitchell
FS - Wilson, S - Griffin (Texas), Andrews
RCB - Hobbs, Scott
P - MILLER
PK Gostkowski
LS Paxton

 

[TruthSeeker]

I just put this in the draft forum, and likely broke every rule of internet forum etiquette but with all the offseason talk I think it is just as applicable here. Thoughts, realistic? crazy? other ideas?
-----------------------------------------------------

I will change this 20 more times before September but as of now, here is my projected 53 man roster, draft picks and FA signings (attached in zipped Excel file).

Summary

Free Agents
- Samuel get signed, everything changes if this doesn't happen ( 6 Years, $34, $11 Bonus)
- Napolean Harris is signed and projected to start at ILB ( 5 Years, $22, $5 Bonus)
- Graham leaves, injury history makes it too risky to sign long term

Draft Summary
- heavy focus on defense on day 1, Bradley and Burgess are brought in, each has the potential to play OLB or ILB

2007 Draft
1 - Round 1 WR - Bowe (LSU)
1 - Round 1 S - Griffin (Texas)
2 - Round 2 OLB/ILB - Bradley (Nebraska)
3 - Round 3 OLB/ILB -Burgess (Michigan)
4 - Round 4 CB - Smith (Florida)
5 (Comp) Round 5 RB - Snelling (Virginia)
6 - Round 6 OT\OG - Barbre (Missouri Southern State)
6 (Comp) Round 6 TE - Herold (Nebraska-Omaha)
7 - Round 7 S - Mitchell (Ohio State)

UFAs , ERFAs, RFAs
- all tendered including Gay

Projected Roster (Warning, this will look like crap, use the Excel file for a better view)
Pos - Depth1 Depth2 Depth3
QB - Brady, Cassel
LWR - Caldwell, WR - Bowe (LSU), Kight
RWR - Gaffney, Jackson
LT - Light,
LG - Mankins, Yates
C - Koppen, Hochstein
RG - Neal,
RT - Kaczur, O'Callaghan
TE - Watson, Thomas, TE - Herold (Nebraska-Omaha)
FB - Evans
RB - Maroney, FAULK, RB - Snelling (Virginia)
LDE - Warren, Wright
NT - Wilfork, Smith
RDE - Seymour, Green, Hill
LOLB - COLVIN, OLB/ILB - Bradley (Nebraska)
LILB - BRUSCHI, Alexander, Izzo
RILB - Harris OLB/ILB -Burgess (Michigan), Mays
ROLB - VRABEL, Woods
LCB - Samuel, Gay, CB - Smith (Florida)
SS - HARRISON, Sanders, Mitchell
FS - Wilson, S - Griffin (Texas), Andrews
RCB - Hobbs, Scott
P - MILLER
PK Gostkowski
LS Paxton

I certainly appreciate the good work done on this projection. I'd be thrilled if most of this stuff happens. Hopefully it does.

 

[Brady'sButtBoy]

Not bad work, not bad at all.

I'd pick on two things -
1- no WR is coming in the first round. You can never be sure about BB's picks, but if they don't go D with both number ones, I'd say a much more likely 'surprise' would be a stud O-lineman

2- You forgot about Garrett Mills. A guy with his speed, college production and team first attitude would seem to warrant another season at minimum.

 

[pats1]

Not bad work, not bad at all.

I'd pick on two things -
1- no WR is coming in the first round. You can never be sure about BB's picks, but if they don't go D with both number ones, I'd say a much more likely 'surprise' would be a stud O-lineman

After drafting Mankins, Kaczur, and O'Callaghan, and already having Light, Koppen, and Neal locked up long term, drafting an OL is probably last on the Pats' list for 2007.

 

[pats1]

Mills and Mays are still eligible for the practice squad next year, as they both did not dress for more than 8 games last year.

 

[jrpatsfan]

What happened to Dillon, am I missing him?

 

[cstjohn17]

Not bad work, not bad at all.

I'd pick on two things -
1- no WR is coming in the first round. You can never be sure about BB's picks, but if they don't go D with both number ones, I'd say a much more likely 'surprise' would be a stud O-lineman

2- You forgot about Garrett Mills. A guy with his speed, college production and team first attitude would seem to warrant another season at minimum.

1) Just speculation but the WR class is very deep, depending on how the combine, etc. play out players like Ginn, Meachem, Bowe and maybe (real longshot) Jarrett. Because of the depth the best value should be at WR. I still don't think they take an ILB in round 1, maybe they look at DE\OLB but most of the 3-4 type LBs seem to be 2nd to 3rd rounders.
2) I didn't forget him, I think he is on the fence to make the team. It may have seemed attractive at the time to draft a tweener but IMO he is not physical enough to be a FB, too small to play TE. My sense is that the team may try to get a little bigger on offense and possibly add an old school style FB, this would be an attempt to make the running game more consistent. That is partially why I looked to Bowe in round 1, apparently he is very physical and can block quite well for a WR.

OL - I think they are ok, they rebounded nicely after the Miami game. Look for a Day 2 addition or a veteran FA who retires during training camp. Additional players (scrubs) will be brought in for the 8 and 9 spots.

Again, I will change it 20 more times but as pathetic and nerdy as it is to compile the lists it has kept be from thinking about the loss to the Colts...

 

[cstjohn17]

What happened to Dillon, am I missing him?

Put to pasture.

 

[ATippett56]

2007 Draft
1 - Round 1 WR - Bowe (LSU)
1 - Round 1 S - Griffin (Texas)
2 - Round 2 OLB/ILB - Bradley (Nebraska)
3 - Round 3 OLB/ILB -Burgess (Michigan)
4 - Round 4 CB - Smith (Florida)
5 (Comp) Round 5 RB - Snelling (Virginia)
6 - Round 6 OT\OG - Barbre (Missouri Southern State)
6 (Comp) Round 6 TE - Herold (Nebraska-Omaha)
7 - Round 7 S - Mitchell (Ohio State)

You are definitely reaching with Bradley and Burgess in the second round. Meanwhile Ryan Smith only weighs 168 lbs and you have to question his durability at that size for the NFL. Finally, the New England Patriots do not need another offensive lineman on the 53 man roster.

1st Round - Patrick Willis, ILB from Mississippi
1st Round - Michael Griffin, FS from Texas
2nd Round - David Harris, ILB from Michigan
3rd Round - Fred Bennett, CB from South Carolina or David Irons, CB from Auburn
4th Round - Stewart Bradley, OLB from Nebraska or Prescott Burgess, OLB from Michigan
5th Round (Comp) - Zak DeOssie, ILB from Brown
6th Round - Reggie Lewis, CB from Florida or best available cornerback
6th Round (Comp) - Steve Breaston, WR/KR from Michigan (if Troy Brown retires)
7th Round (from Arizona) - Chris Davis, WR from Florida State
7th Round - Anthony Waters, ILB from Clemson (immediately placed on PUP)

Place Franchise Tag on Asante Samuel
Re-sign Junior Seau to one year contract

Defensive Squad
6 - Defensive Lineman
10 - Linebackers
5 - Cornerbacks
5 - Safeties

10 Linebackers
4 Outside Linebackers
Mike Vrabel
Rosevelt Colvin
Pierre Woods
Stewart Bradley or Prescott Burgess

10 Linebackers
6 Inside Linebackers
Tedy Bruschi
Junior Seau
Patrick Willis
David Harris
Zak DeOssie
Eric Alexander

5 Safeties
Rodney Harrison
James Sanders
Michael Griffin
Willie Andrews
Mel Mitchell or Tebucky Jones or Artrell Hawkins

5 Cornerbacks
Asante Samuel (Mister Franchise Tag)
Ellis Hobbs
Eugene Wilson
Fred Bennett or David Irons
Reggie Lewis or Randall Gay or Antwain Spann

 

[Oswlek]

1) Just speculation but the WR class is very deep, depending on how the combine, etc. play out players like Ginn, Meachem, Bowe and maybe (real longshot) Jarrett. Because of the depth the best value should be at WR. I still don't think they take an ILB in round 1, maybe they look at DE\OLB but most of the 3-4 type LBs seem to be 2nd to 3rd rounders.
2) I didn't forget him, I think he is on the fence to make the team. It may have seemed attractive at the time to draft a tweener but IMO he is not physical enough to be a FB, too small to play TE. My sense is that the team may try to get a little bigger on offense and possibly add an old school style FB, this would be an attempt to make the running game more consistent. That is partially why I looked to Bowe in round 1, apparently he is very physical and can block quite well for a WR.

OL - I think they are ok, they rebounded nicely after the Miami game. Look for a Day 2 addition or a veteran FA who retires during training camp. Additional players (scrubs) will be brought in for the 8 and 9 spots.

Again, I will change it 20 more times but as pathetic and nerdy as it is to compile the lists it has kept be from thinking about the loss to the Colts...

I can honestly say that I would be shocked if Mills is not on next year's team. I think he is more of a lock than Dillon.

The one game in the preseason that Mills actually got some action he was very good. He ran decent routes and showed tremendous quickness. If you recall, this was after only a week of practice due to being injured early in camp.

I have absolutely no idea how you came to the conclusion that he was on the fence. He is a promising guy who was injured so NE red shirted him. IMO he is Faulk's eventual replacement as the receiver out of the backfield.

 

[wdkantro2]

Not trying to sound like a jerk here, but how long have all of you followed the Patriots under Belichick? Since he's been here, right? How many times has he drafted a linebacker on the first day? Never, unless I am forgetting someone. They will not invest a lot in a guy who most likely will have trouble grasping the system, let alone two guys in the same draft. I know they need a linebacker, but I just don't think they will invest first day picks on a linebacker, let alone two.

 

[ATippett56]

Not trying to sound like a jerk here, but how long have all of you followed the Patriots under Belichick?

The same was said about Belichick drafting an offensive lineman in the first round, as well.

 

[pats1]

I can honestly say that I would be shocked if Mills is not on next year's team. I think he is more of a lock than Dillon.

The one game in the preseason that Mills actually got some action he was very good. He ran decent routes and showed tremendous quickness. If you recall, this was after only a week of practice due to being injured early in camp.

I have absolutely no idea how you came to the conclusion that he was on the fence. He is a promising guy who was injured so NE red shirted him. IMO he is Faulk's eventual replacement as the receiver out of the backfield.

I can't see Mills playing at all the role Faulk does.

You'll never see Faulk lining up as a singleback, tailback, or shotgun back. You can't line him up back there alone and expect the defense to respect the run, as they need to do with Faulk.

When he was healthy in the preseason, Mills was used almost exclusively as a blocking FB.

 

[wdkantro2]

I can't see Mills playing at all the role Faulk does.

You'll never see Faulk lining up as a singleback, tailback, or shotgun back.

When he was healthy in the preseason, Mills was used almost exclusively as a blocking FB.

I thought I remember him catching a bunch of balls against Atlanta in the second half....

 

[pats1]

I thought I remember him catching a bunch of balls against Atlanta in the second half....

He had all 5 of his catches in the 4th quarter of that game, yes, but IIRC, it was at TE/slot in a Dallas Clark type of way.

 

[cstjohn17]

You are definitely reaching with Bradley and Burgess in the second round. Meanwhile Ryan Smith only weighs 168 lbs and you have to question his durability at that size for the NFL. Finally, the New England Patriots do not need another offensive lineman on the 53 man roster.

Opinion makes the world go round, I am sure I am off on many of the picks. Bradley will rise after the Senior Bowl, maybe not to round 2 but we will see. I don't think Willis is worth a first round pick in the Patriots system, I don't think he can be a 3 down player and this limits his round 1 value.

OL - The oline pick ended up on the practice squad. Not out of the realm of possibility.

Defensive numbers - 6 DL seems very light, 10 LB seems high.

Nice work, we would be improved with your picks. Where are the offensive breakdown projections?

 

[cstjohn17]

I can honestly say that I would be shocked if Mills is not on next year's team. I think he is more of a lock than Dillon.

I have absolutely no idea how you came to the conclusion that he was on the fence. He is a promising guy who was injured so NE red shirted him. IMO he is Faulk's eventual replacement as the receiver out of the backfield.

He is only on the fence IMO, he could easily make the team but whether he stays or goes doesn't dramatically improve or detract from the overall roster.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

After drafting Mankins, Kaczur, and O'Callaghan, and already having Light, Koppen, and Neal locked up long term, drafting an OL is probably last on the Pats' list for 2007.

Why? Watching the Senior Bowl practices I'd strongly consider bundling the two #1's just for a shot at LOT Levi Brown (Pennsylvania). He'd be a serious upgrade from Light - and I'm a Light supporter.

 

[ATippett56]

Defensive numbers - 6 DL seems very light, 10 LB seems high.

This is the year that Marquise Hill is finally cut. As for six defensive lineman, the Patriots can add one to two on the practice squad in case of injury. The Patriots rarely dress six defensive lineman on the "game day 45 man squad" anyway. During the 2004 NFL season, didn't Belichick at one time have 10 to 12 linebackers on the 53 man roster?

If I'm not mistaken according to the amended CBA, Santonio Thomas has another year of eligibility on the practice squad (three years maximum).

 

[ATippett56]

Where are the offensive breakdown projections?

24 Offensive Players
9 Offensive Lineman
Matt Light
Logan Mankins
Dan Koppen
Stephen Neal
Nick Kaczur
Ryan O'Callaghan
Wesley Britt
Russ Hochstein
Billy Yates or Sean Bubin

2 Quarterbacks
Tom Brady
Matt Cassel

3 Halfbacks
Laurence Maroney
Corey Dillon
Kevin Faulk

2 Fullbacks
Garrett Mills (converted to fullback during OTA's)
Heath Evans or Patrick Pass

3 Tight Ends
Ben Watson
David Thomas
Deeply discounted unrestricted free agent

5 Wide Receivers
Reche Caldwell
Jabar Gaffney
Chad Jackson
Troy Brown
Kelvin Kight or Bam Childress or 6th/7th Round Draft Pick

If three quarterbacks, remove Yates/Bubin from the offensive lineman list.