Just How Much Do Dominant CB's Matter?

[Brady'sButtBoy]

This isn't a scientific measurement or anything but-

Manning was mostly stymied by the Pats until Ty Law was cut. Since then he's 4-1 v. the Pats, or close to that anyway.

As for Brady? His only win v. the Broncos until last season came the year before Champ Bailey showed up, since then a shut out until 2011.

There are so many factors that go into winning and losing - yes. But to have such a clear correlation between the two best QB's of this generation and how they fared against a dominant CB on a good team, well, it's interesting if nothing else.

 

[DocHoliday]

Coincidence in my opinion.

When Colts were beating the Pats they just were a really good team.

Denver wasn't a bad team either.

 

[Big-T]

How many games has Revis single handedly won for the Jets?

I think a dominant CB is over rated because of the price they currently go for, having 2 above average corners with good safeties is probably far better in terms of balance.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Important, but not as important as a strong front 7.

Your Ty Law example might be more coincidence like a poster noted before. Don't forget other changes post 2004 - Bruschi stroke which left him a different player, TJ retired, McGinnest gone after '05, Rodney's ACL tear in early '05 then never returned to form, the list goes on. The defense as a whole post 2004 was never close to what it was in 03-04. Also, Peyton's most embarrassing performance vs the Pats was in the '04 playoffs when the CB's were Asante Samuel (before he truly became a legit #1), Randall Gay, Troy Brown, and Hank Poteat.

 

[pherein]

We haven't had Greer in for a full game yet. If you look up his numbers he's one of the most underrated CB in the NFL I think. He consistently trails revis.
The most he played was 3 quarters against GB, and it has made a huge impact. QB pass to our rookie white all day.
I think they are devastating to young QB's (RG3, Cam) or good QB's (cassel,smith), but against elite QB's like Brady, Rogers they make them shift their game plan to avoid them, but are good enough to make the throw.
To effect a elite QB, having a good day, I believe you need a couple Dominate DL men and at least 1 dominate CB.
SF49ers has that with Smith, Tukuafu, and C. Rogers. Add P Willis and you have a problem even for a elite QB. I was pretty amazed how Brees carved them up without Graham or Thomas. But that usually is not going to happen.
Like BigT make a good point, Revis has won some games for the Jets , just on fear. Qb's watch his tape and can't find a window to throw in.
When we scorched the Texans , Greer basically covers Johnson perfectly. Thats not easy to do.
Personally Id trade P. Willis for a Greer, Revis, Rogers in a second. Id rather have a solid DS lineup than a solid LB core in this pass happy league, but thats just me .

 

[ausbacker]

We haven't had Greer in for a full game yet. If you look up his numbers he's one of the most underrated CB in the NFL I think. He consistently trails revis.
The most he played was 3 quarters against GB, and it has made a huge impact. QB pass to our rookie white all day.
I think they are devastating to young QB's (RG3, Cam) or good QB's (cassel,smith), but against elite QB's like Brady, Rogers they make them shift their game plan to avoid them, but are good enough to make the throw.
To effect a elite QB, having a good day, I believe you need a couple Dominate DL men and at least 1 dominate CB.
SF49ers has that with Smith, Tukuafu, and C. Rogers. Add P Willis and you have a problem even for a elite QB. I was pretty amazed how Brees carved them up without Graham or Thomas. But that usually is not going to happen.
Like BigT make a good point, Revis has won some games for the Jets , just on fear. Qb's watch his tape and can't find a window to throw in.
When we scorched the Texans , Greer basically covers Johnson perfectly. Thats not easy to do.
Personally Id trade P. Willis for a Greer, Revis, Rogers in a second. Id rather have a solid DS lineup than a solid LB core in this pass happy league, but thats just me .

I'm not trading Patrick Willis for Jabari Greer unless Greer comes with a first round pick. A solid front seven creating disruption is more important than an all word secondary IMO. If you can disrupt the ball at it's beginning point, that can never be seen as a bad thing.

In a perfect world, it would be nice to have an elite DL and good to very good linebackers and DB's.

 

[ATippett56]

Personally Id trade P. Willis for a Greer, Revis, Rogers in a second. Id rather have a solid DS lineup than a solid LB core in this pass happy league, but thats just me .

Since the 49ers already have Carlos Rogers, there is no need to trade Patrick Willis.

A strong defensive pass rush combined with a strong defensive secondary will typically produce a top ten pass defense: 49ers (Rogers, Brown, Whitner, Goldson); Texans (Joseph, Jackson, Quin, Manning)

 

[convertedpatsfan]

I think you have to be careful about claiming a "clear correlation" here.

In the regular season, Brady was 1-2 against the Broncos before Bailey joined the team, and 1-3 after Bailey joined the team. There was also a playoff loss when Bailey was younger, and a playoff win last season. But in the 4 regular season losses, Brady averaged 289 yards, and threw for 6 TDs and 0 INTs.

It's also worth noting Peyton Manning has gone 4-1 against Bailey and the Broncos so it isn't really much of a correlation.

 

[Rob0729]

As others have pointed out, this is an arbitrary correlation.

As others pointed out, the Pats' defense took a sharp decline post 2004 and it wasn't all the loss of Law. In fact, the Pats basically won the Super Bowl in 2004 without Law for most of the time.

As for the Champ Bailey influence on the Broncos, Bailey was only an elite CB for the first two to three years he was in Denver. It had more to do with Shanahan, playing in Denver, and other factors than Bailey himself.

Also as pointed out, Brady and the Pats have a winning record against Revis who is the best CB since Deion Sanders. In fact the Pats were beating the Jets 14-10 in the first game of 2010 and only lost after Revis went out of the game with a lame hamstring. Revis was playing when the Pats won 45-3 in 2010 and 30-21 and 37-16 last year. In those three games, Brady threw for 10 TDs and 0 INTs.

 

[Ring 6]

How many games has Revis single handedly won for the Jets?

Hard to say, but you can make that argument for any player in the league.
In Revis' case though his ability has a profound affect on the entire defense. It allows everyone to play more aggressively.
Look at them. Take him away they are a 4-12 team at best, and they did win 28 games in the last 3 years. I'd say if you just remove him, that would have been 3 less per year. 6-10, 8-8, 5-11 the last 3, sounds about right based upon the rest of talent they had.

think a dominant CB is over rated because of the price they currently go for, having 2 above average corners with good safeties is probably far better in terms of balance.

Being overrated depends on how you rate them.
Corner probably isn't more important than most other positions (the rules have made it so hard even the really good ones are at a disadvantage) but the really great ones are probably more valuable than great ones everywhere but QB, DL and arguably WR.
LT isn't really on the list anymore. Many teams have inexperienced LTs that do well, and the passing game as it exists now can negate the impact of an edge rusher on as much as 90% of its throws and still be effective.

 

[PP2]

In Revis' case though his ability has a profound affect on the entire defense. It allows everyone to play more aggressively.
Look at them. Take him away they are a 4-12 team at best.

The Jets D is designed around him. A lot of the schemes they call leave both CBs on islands, with Revis covering the #1 option. Like you said, take him away and they are a losing team. That is what I am fully expecting.

 

[VJCPatriot]

It's nice to have one, no doubt. But in today's pass-happy NFL, that corner can only affect his own island, there's still 2/3 of the field that can be thrown to. In particular taking advantage of safeties up the middle with athletic move tight ends is a trend that cannot be ignored. Likewise the #2 corner will be picked on a lot, and offenses can do things such as motion WRs to the other side or swap them to create mismatches. Using different formations and movesets can also free up the #1 intended target away from the #1 CB. The game is all about mismatches, and a smart offensive coordinator will gameplan around a 'dominant corner'.

Never hurts to have them but I think there is too much hype on them and the cost of keeping a top one vs the cost of an above average corner is disparate with the actual value that you receive. For example was Nnamhdi Asomugha ever worth the contract that he was earning with Oakland? I don't think so, even if he was the best CB in football at that time, there's no way he was worth 15m of cap space pe ryear.

 

[jsull87]

I'm not trading Patrick Willis for Jabari Greer unless Greer comes with a first round pick. A solid front seven creating disruption is more important than an all word secondary IMO. If you can disrupt the ball at it's beginning point, that can never be seen as a bad thing.

In a perfect world, it would be nice to have an elite DL and good to very good linebackers and DB's.

Interesting point. But if i can play devils advocate to an extent even thop i agree with your opinion on the DL.

I wonder how much more time having Revis, Polomalu, Reed, Asomogua as your DB's would give your Pass rush to get to the QB and what sacks would be created there.

In saying that i am sure having Ware, Ngata, Wilfork, JPP coming at you every down would also make your DB's look a lot better.

 

[ausbacker]

Interesting point. But if i can play devils advocate to an extent even thop i agree with your opinion on the DL.

I wonder how much more time having Revis, Polomalu, Reed, Asomogua as your DB's would give your Pass rush to get to the QB and what sacks would be created there.

In saying that i am sure having Ware, Ngata, Wilfork, JPP coming at you every down would also make your DB's look a lot better.

Not that I disagree with what you're saying jsull, but given the salary cap it's probably going to be one or the other. Not all teams are fortunate to be strong at all three levels like the 49ers and Texans on D. If a team put out a strong secondary as such, I'd be tempted to just run all day. If the DB's creep up to blitz then play action comes into the fray. For mine, it's vitally important to have a very good defensive line.

I feel like the Patriots are one dynamic end away from having a great line. Chandler Jones' performance has blown my mind thus far. He's a difference maker.

 

[Kontradiction]

It's important in that it effectively shuts off one whole side of the field without having to dedicate another safety to the other team's best receiver. But you have to have other competent DB's elsewhere in order for it to really matter. A stout front seven to go along with that isn't so bad as well.

 

[aluminum seats]

The Jets D is designed around him. A lot of the schemes they call leave both CBs on islands, with Revis covering the #1 option. Like you said, take him away and they are a losing team. That is what I am fully expecting.

Yeah, Revis and the Jets are sort of a unique case. That was a HUGE loss for them. Special player.

 

[BradyManny]

In 2008, in Revis' 2nd season, the Jets still had the 29th pass defense in the league.

He's arguably "one of the best players" in the league, yet the team has played .500 ball during his career.

A corner can only affect so much.

It's not like QB. Put Brady, Manning, Brees, Rodgers on any roster in the NFL, and it's immediately going to be a good team. You can't say that about any corner in the NFL, even Revis.

 

[bunuel]

Revis is a special case because he's not your typical shut off half the field shutdown CB. Guys like Nnamdi only play on 1 side. Revis can play anywhere the assignment goes. The Jets defensive scheme is terrible without him.

Brady has a career 78.7 QBRating throwing at him, which while significantly worse than his career numbers, are also significantly better than Revis' numbers against the league.

Of course a great QB is always going to be better for a team than a great CB. That shouldn't even be a question.

DL > CB > LB (in my opinion)

 

[pherein]

I'm not trading Patrick Willis for Jabari Greer unless Greer comes with a first round pick. A solid front seven creating disruption is more important than an all word secondary IMO. If you can disrupt the ball at it's beginning point, that can never be seen as a bad thing.

In a perfect world, it would be nice to have an elite DL and good to very good linebackers and DB's.

Yeah that trade might be pushing it. But elite OL usually negates a elite DL, as seen by our games with the Giants or SF. They just come out even, and with no good CB's Brees just picked them apart.
To bad no perfect worlds any more, key players cost to much. Im still going with elite DS over DL or LB core. But I would love to see data on teams that had elite DS and mediocre DL, LB's over the opposite.
I know in 2009 that was the case with our defense. I think that would be a worth while number crunching study for someone to do.

 

[ALP]

well lets see, look at the most recent SB winners

-NYG: no amazing cb's
-GB: yes, one
-NO: no amazing cb's (i dont think so anyways)
-steelers: no
-colts: no
-patriots: yes
-bucs: yes
-ravens: no

i also am unwilling to look at at pre2004 scenarios b/c since that rule change im sure a CB's importance has changed (not sure if greater or lesser though)

looking at that list though, i would say since rule change, no cbs dont matter