Why Deion Branch over Julian Edelman ?

[Sicilian]

Here's the thing, IMO

In week one, Edelman had one catch as the WR2 under the new system. In week 2, even with Hernandez going down early and Welker not getting targeted until the 2 minute warning at the end of the first half, Edelman only managed to ring up 5 catches for 50 yards. For all the sunshine McD was trying to blow about Edelman, he's been a failure through 2 games. Now, it's only been 2 games, and maybe Edelman really is all that the team is claiming, but we're certainly not seeing it on the field. On top of that, for all the "Edelman is great after the catch" claims, Edelman's averaging less than 10 ypc for his career to date. So, it's not being patchwork that's the issue to me, because I expect Winslow to be an adequate replacement for Hernandez in 3 of the 5 "use" positions/functions (tight receiving/tight blocking/slot receiving). The issue to me is whether they use this time of being patchwork to pull back on the Edelman experiment.

I'm not sure 5 for 50 should be considered a failure per se, as even with Hernandez out he should be the fourth option after Lloyd, Welker, and Gronk. But I agree that Edelman isn't the ideal candidate for any position on this team, be it outside (where Branch should be better) or slot (where Welker is clearly better). His real value lies in being able to fill in for both, allowing them to limit both player's reps to save some legs.

 

[Kontradiction]

Here's the thing, IMO

In week one, Edelman had one catch as the WR2 under the new system. In week 2, even with Hernandez going down early and Welker not getting targeted until the 2 minute warning at the end of the first half, Edelman only managed to ring up 5 catches for 50 yards. For all the sunshine McD was trying to blow about Edelman, he's been a failure through 2 games. Now, it's only been 2 games, and maybe Edelman really is all that the team is claiming, but we're certainly not seeing it on the field. On top of that, for all the "Edelman is great after the catch" claims, Edelman's averaging less than 10 ypc for his career to date. So, it's not being patchwork that's the issue to me, because I expect Winslow to be an adequate replacement for Hernandez in 3 of the 5 "use" positions/functions (tight receiving/tight blocking/slot receiving). The issue to me is whether they use this time of being patchwork to pull back on the Edelman experiment.

No arguments here.

Really? Care to elaborate?

What do you want me to elaborate on? I thought that what I said was pretty straight forward.

More than a breather for a few plays IMO, but more like a limited amount of snaps to cut down on the wear and tear.
He played 90% of the snaps last year, which was much higher than any other season.
The best use of Welker is to have him out there for around 75%-80% of the snaps so that he stays healthy and as close to 100% all year long.
He will wear down faster at this age than he did 3 years ago.

I wouldn't mind seeing Welker pulled back under 90% either, especially with Lloyd now on the team and Branch back. I would say that it needs to be more than 75%, especially with Hernandez now out a few weeks at the very least. He's too much of a weapon over the middle of the field to sit out for 25% of the snaps each game.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I think that decision will be made not voluntarily, unfortunately, but only if their hand is forced. That will start with Winslow. If he can't pick up this offense or develop chemistry with Brady, all bets are off for staying the transition course until Hernandez is back and 100%. Secondary factor will be Edleman's performance. And what level of growing pains they are stubbornly committed to withstanding. They were so committed to this particular approach out of the gate that they removed any alternative they could be tempted to resort to until an injury forced their hand. Threw out the baby with the bath water as you termed it. Except they couldn't remove Welker largely because of the tag, although had Hernnandez not been lost for a substantial period in week 2 I now don't doubt they would have indeed at least persued a scenario that accomplished that before the trading deadline, too.

 

[Kontradiction]

His real value lies in being able to fill in for both, allowing them to limit both player's reps to save some legs.

Bingo. Though I see Branch needing more rest at this point than Welker.

 

[Deus Irae]

I'm not sure 5 for 50 should be considered a failure per se, as even with Hernandez out he should be the fourth option after Lloyd, Welker, and Gronk. But I agree that Edelman isn't the ideal candidate for any position on this team, be it outside (where Branch should be better) or slot (where Welker is clearly better). His real value lies in being able to fill in for both, allowing them to limit both player's reps to save some legs.

You're saying "should", and I hear you but, with the snap totals that Edelman had in that game, he wasn't getting much in the way of targets until the second half. The play-by-play has Edelman with only one target in the first half. If that's all he's going to be good for, he needs to get off the field. It was bad enough seeing this sort of thing with Aiken and Tate. We don't need to be seeing it again.

 

[Sicilian]

Bingo. Though I see Branch needing more rest at this point than Welker.

Based on just the two athletes themselves I would agree, but I think the gap narrows because Welker plays a rougher position. He's generally getting hit by bigger bodies in the middle of the field than Branch is on the outside. Overall, I think you're right though.

 

[signbabybrady]

What do you want me to elaborate on? I thought that what I said was pretty straight forward.

I was just messing with you because you missed my sarcasm

 

[Kontradiction]

I was just messing with you because you missed my sarcasm

Aye, you got me. :bricks:

 

[Sicilian]

You're saying "should", and I hear you but, with the snap totals that Edelman had in that game, he wasn't getting much in the way of targets until the second half. The play-by-play has Edelman with only one target in the first half. If that's all he's going to be good for, he needs to get off the field. It was bad enough seeing this sort of thing with Aiken and Tate. We don't need to be seeing it again.

The offense in general really had no rhythm in the first half, so I'm inclined to weight the numbers a little bit. Not ignore them mind you, you're definitely right that a guy playing all the snaps only getting 1 target in a half is never a sign of good things. But the adjustments made in the 2nd half lead to believe he's better than Tate or Aiken, who not only had poor first halves, but followed them up with poor second halves as well.

Again though, so long as Lloyd, Branch, and Welker are healthy, they should be in the vast majority of 3 WR sets, with Branch filling in in spot duty to keep them at reasonable snap counts (around 80% for Welker, and probably 60-70% for Branch). Some of those snaps can be managed with a 2-TE set, especially once Winslow is back, but Edelman will need to play unless we bring in another WR.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Rappaport views this as all about Edleman and determining if he is indeed a replacement for what Welker brings including more versatility to play outside. How long the in season experiment continues will depend on lots of factors, including wins and losses and individual performance and injuries which out of the gate in Hernandez case has certainly limited their perceived capacity to assume short term risk in favor of some long term answers...

Never made any sense this was about Welker per se. This is about transitioning to a 99% "12" personnel offense. I just think when you commit to doing anything that exclusively you just invite situations like this.

What is going on with the New England Patriots and Wes Welker? Well… - NFL.com

 

[Ring 6]

I think that decision will be made not voluntarily, unfortunately, but only if their hand is forced. That will start with Winslow. If he can't pick up this offense or develop chemistry with Brady, all bets are off for staying the transition course until Hernandez is back and 100%. Secondary factor will be Edleman's performance. And what level of growing pains they are stubbornly committed to withstanding. They were so committed to this particular approach out of the gate that they removed any alternative they could be tempted to resort to until an injury forced their hand. Threw out the baby with the bath water as you termed it. Except they couldn't remove Welker largely because of the tag, although had Hernnandez not been lost for a substantial period in week 2 I now don't doubt they would have indeed at least persued a scenario that accomplished that before the trading deadline, too.

What approach did they commit to?
2 TEs as a base offense? They were in that last year.
Don't you think that its quite an overreaction to say that they are kicking Welker to the curb when he played twice as many snaps as Edelman week 1 then 63 snaps in week 2? Making up an idea that he wouldn't have played if Hernandez didn't get hurt has all of 3 snaps on one series to back it up, which is less evidence than a rumor would give.

 

[Deus Irae]

More than a breather for a few plays IMO, but more like a limited amount of snaps to cut down on the wear and tear.
He played 90% of the snaps last year, which was much higher than any other season.
The best use of Welker is to have him out there for around 75%-80% of the snaps so that he stays healthy and as close to 100% all year long.
He will wear down faster at this age than he did 3 years ago.

Welker caught 122 passes last season, and was a huge part of why the team got to the Super Bowl. The team can save wear and tear on him just by having Lloyd on the field to take away some of the tough catches he needs to make. They don't need to take him off the field when he's the only WR on the roster who demands double teams. What they've been doing is asinine, and the offense has suffered as a result of it.

They had an opportunity to take an offense that was already very difficult to stop and make it better. Instead, they chose to go with just making it different.

 

[Ring 6]

Rappaport views this as all about Edleman and determining if he is indeed a replacement for what Welker brings including more versatility to play outside. How long the in season experiment continues will depend on lots of factors, including wins and losses and individual performance and injuries which out of the gate in Hernandez case has certainly limited their perceived capacity to assume short term risk in favor of some long term answers...

Never made any sense this was about Welker per se. This is about transitioning to a 99% "12" personnel offense. I just think when you commit to doing anything that exclusively you just invite situations like this.

What is going on with the New England Patriots and Wes Welker? Well… - NFL.com

When did we run 99% 12 offense?
What situation do you think is being invited?

 

[Ring 6]

Welker caught 122 passes last season, and was a huge part of why the team got to the Super Bowl. The team can save wear and tear on him just by having Lloyd on the field to take away some of the tough catches he needs to make. They don't need to take him off the field when he's the only WR on the roster who demands double teams. What they've been doing is asinine, and the offense has suffered as a result of it.

He played 63 snaps. Aside from the first 3 and the kneel downs he was off the field of 9 of 72.

 

[Deus Irae]

He played 63 snaps. Aside from the first 3 and the kneel downs he was off the field of 9 of 72.

You keep tossing this out as if Herndez getting injured didn't happen. It's a meaningless number, because of the circumstances, as has been pointed out to you time and again.

 

[BradyManny]

Wes shouldn't be seated unless he needs a breather for a few plays or is injured. Otherwise, he should always be in the game. He's the best possession receiver in the NFL and the best receiver we have on the team.

Agreed.

It's amazing how the perception of Welker, in the fan base, has changed in just a few months, and I'm not sure how. This time last year, we were debating whether he was the best receiver in the game. Now, we're debating his role on the team, or if he's expendable. He's better than Julian Edelman, he's better than Brandon Lloyd. I think we keep forgetting that in these last two weeks.

I understand optimism in our young players, like Edelman, but such optimism at the expense of appreciating the value of one of our vets is misplaced.

 

[Ring 6]

You keep tossing this out as if Herndez getting injured didn't happen. It's a meaningless number, because of the circumstances, as has been pointed out to you time and again.

So the number that you think would have happened under different circumstances IS meaningful? Meaningful is what he actually did, which has been pointed out to you time and again as well.
You have not been paying attention if you think the personell the Patriots use for the first 3 plays of the first drive of a game is indicative of what they will do all day.

 

[BradyManny]

You have not been paying attention if you think the personell the Patriots use for the first 3 plays of the first drive of a game is indicative of what they will do all day.

But the amount of 2WR2TE they ran against Tennessee is obviously relevant. You are using semantics to prohibit any meaningful discussion, since the logical conclusion from that discussion doesn't fit in the argument you are making.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

We're not talking about what they ended up doing. We're talking about what they set out intent on experimenting with doing because that is what they want to do. They want the two TE set to be the primary set they run this offense out of and they want 2 perimeter receivers playing in it for the most part and not a slot WR even if he is the best in the business. I'm not sure I see the need to pidgeonhole yourself like that, especially seeing what can happen when you lose the TE who really the nexsis for the whole concept. Not to mention when your OL is already a work in progress and you're offense is in flux and playing uncomfortably as a result. I really don't see why you would opt to force the issue at a time when you don't really have that other outside WR to compliment Lloyd who isn't even assimilated into the offense himself. Especially after you cut the 3 system experienced
guys who were competing for the spot in camp. Hell, you've struggled to field one let alone two outside WR's for the better part of several years now. So again, for me, it's a matter of what DI eluded to, throwing the baby out with the bath water when really there wasn't the need to. Plenty of time to test theories here and there depending on how things unfold. They opted to test them out of the gate. Only reason I can envision for that is they planned to make another move or two if things worked out. And they underestimated the enemy and they didn't anticipate the ever present risk of injury.

 

[Sicilian]

But the amount of 2WR2TE they ran against Tennessee is obviously relevant. You are using semantics to prohibit any meaningful discussion, since the logical conclusion from that discussion doesn't fit in the argument you are making.

And in that game, Welker had almost twice as many snaps as Edelman (43 to 23). So the idea that, based on the first 3 plays of the game, that Edelman would have taken more snaps than Welker in a 2 TE offense, doesn't have much more basis to it than what Andy is saying.