Who are the passes being completed to? (the "myth" of the TE-centric offense?)

[ivanvamp]

I know that Hernandez' injury skews the numbers that I'm about to share. And we're only two games into the season. I know, I know, I know. But I'll share them anyway.

% of catches by position (rec divided by pass completions)

WR1/2 (2011: Welker/Branch; 2012: Welker/Lloyd)
- 2011: 43.0%
- 2012: 41.2%

WR3/6 (2011: Edelman/Ocho/Slater/Underwood; 2012: Edelman)
- 2011: 5.7%
- 2012: 11.8%

TE
- 2011: 42.0%
- 2012: 35.3%

WR Total
- 2011: 48.8%
- 2012: 52.9%

RB
- 2011: 9.2%
- 2012: 11.8%

So again, granted Hernandez' injury is a major factor here, but right now, the numbers show that the Pats are throwing more to their WRs this year than they did last year. They're also throwing to their RBs more this year than they did last year. And, of course, they're running the football more this year than they did last year (45.0% runs divided by runs + pass attempts in 2012 vs. 41.7% last year).

The passes are just going to Welker a lot less. 2011: 30.3% compared with 15.7% in 2012.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

It's a pretty small sample size to draw any conclusions.

But it really isn't just about who is getting the passes. That's the preferred alignment because you can do all sorts of things without tipping your hand. We can set up a power run formation or go 4 (or even 5 wide) with the same personnel grouping and not miss a beat.

It gives you extreme versatility in many ways, which is why the TEs are so significant. Against the Titans, there were at least 2 TEs on the field at all times, and had Hernandez not gotten hurt, it would have been a similar thing against Arizona.

So while the wide receivers may be seeing more balls (and they should with the addition of Lloyd), and the backs may be catching more passes (and they should since Ridley's hands are a significant improvement over Lawfirm's), this offense still revolves around the TEs. You saw how bad it got when Hernandez left and we were running out 3-receiver sets. Coincidentally, that's what we had to do against Buffalo last year when we lost to them (though one of the 3 was Ocho).

 

[Deus Irae]

You have got to be kidding me with this. :bricks: This is yet another time when curse words and other proscribed things really need to be allowed.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

Could be that they are doubling the TE's and leaving the WR more open? TB will usually take the "most open" man not the centric-man (that almost sounds dirty).

 

[Deus Irae]

Could be that they are doubling the TE's and leaving the WR more open? TB will usually take the "most open" man not the centric-man (that almost sounds dirty).

Brady's completed 51 total passes in 2 games, and Hernandez missed essentially the entire second game. If Hernandez catches just 4 of the passes that went elsewhere in that game, which would have been less than his average last year, the TE catch percentage would be above what it was last year.

The OP's "evidence" here is bogus, and he knows it.

 

[jason423]

Two games isnt enough time to draw solid conclusions on anything. The WR numbers are up in terms of targets (which is a bigger deal than receptions) but you lost your starting TE which skews it. Gronkowski is being targeted the same as last year so he is still one of the main drivers of the offense. The big change is really the effectiveness of Welker and Lloyd. Last year Welker constituted 28.5% of Bradys targets and caught 70.5% of them. Branch was 14.8 and 56.6%.

Lloyd has replaced Welker as the top target thru two weeks but only catches 61.9%, which is a big drop from Welker last season. His YPC is also way down. Welker has only caught 50% this year so he is a drop from Branch after two games. He is targeted about 21% of all pass plays thus far. I think youll get a far better idea after 4 games about what the offense is.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Umm don't you think losing Hernandez had a lot to do with changing those numbers? 2012 is based on TWO games. And in the second one we lost Hernandez way early due to injury. Three words - Small Sample Size.

I know that Hernandez' injury skews the numbers that I'm about to share. And we're only two games into the season. I know, I know, I know. But I'll share them anyway.

% of catches by position (rec divided by pass completions)

WR1/2 (2011: Welker/Branch; 2012: Welker/Lloyd)
- 2011: 43.0%
- 2012: 41.2%

WR3/6 (2011: Edelman/Ocho/Slater/Underwood; 2012: Edelman)
- 2011: 5.7%
- 2012: 11.8%

TE
- 2011: 42.0%
- 2012: 35.3%

WR Total
- 2011: 48.8%
- 2012: 52.9%

RB
- 2011: 9.2%
- 2012: 11.8%

So again, granted Hernandez' injury is a major factor here, but right now, the numbers show that the Pats are throwing more to their WRs this year than they did last year. They're also throwing to their RBs more this year than they did last year. And, of course, they're running the football more this year than they did last year (45.0% runs divided by runs + pass attempts in 2012 vs. 41.7% last year).

The passes are just going to Welker a lot less. 2011: 30.3% compared with 15.7% in 2012.

 

[Rob0729]

The passing game is still TE centric, but the offense is not as much as last year. The Pats are putting a far greater emphasis on the running game this season.

One thing I will say to the theory of the passing game not being TE centric is that even before Hernandez went down, there was far more contribution being expected by receivers not named Welker, Gronk, or Hernandez. Already Ridley has caught 5 passes which is only four less than BJGE caught all of last year and he is on pace for 40 (I doubt that the loss Hernandez had anything to do with how they would use Ridley). The Pats also only had two WRs catch any significant amounts of balls and this year the Pats have three who are on pace to get around 50 balls or more. The Pats are trying not to make it all about the TEs and Welker like it was last year possibly to the team's detriment (but it is too early to tell).

 

[JJDChE]

So what is the 'myth'?

 

[borg]

Incorporate completion % for each grouping to understand why BB prefers TEs.

 

[ivanvamp]

So what is the 'myth'?

It's an attention-grabbing word.

 

[ivanvamp]

You have got to be kidding me with this. :bricks: This is yet another time when curse words and other proscribed things really need to be allowed.

Just do this: #@$@!#!*!!&!&@#$#@

That'll work just fine.

 

[ivanvamp]

Umm don't you think losing Hernandez had a lot to do with changing those numbers? 2012 is based on TWO games. And in the second one we lost Hernandez way early due to injury. Three words - Small Sample Size.

Yes, as I said in the very first words of my original post: "I know that Hernandez' injury skews the numbers that I'm about to share. And we're only two games into the season. I know, I know, I know. But I'll share them anyway."

 

[borg]

In 2011, Pats TEs caught 169 passes. The next highest TE combo pulled in 106 passes (Saints)
59% more completions to Pats TEs than the next most productive TEcentric team

The Pats are the epitamy of TEcentric

And as a reference point....in 2010, the Pats completed 93 passes to TEs

 

[mgteich]

We are a TE-centric offense in that we focus on Te's more than anyone in the league, partly because our TE tandem in the best in the history of the nfl.

We also have decided this fact this year by making sure that we had adequate backups. As of one time last week, we had 7 TE's under contract. We are likely to continue to carry 4 on our 53 man roster. Again, this concentration on TE's is probably more than anyone in the league.

Our Front Office has signed our TE's to very long contracts. This shows a commitment to TE's.

And perhaps the most basic sense of the fact that we are TE centric is that our base offense in the 2 TE, 2 WR and 1 RB set. We play other sets that include more TE's or more WR's, but the 2TE-2WR is our base set.

In the end, we are NOT really TE-centric. Rather, the patriots have a balance between WR's and TE's, in terms of 53 man roster, active roster and in terms of the importance to our offense.

Obviously, when there is an injury, we go to Plan B, which is likely to include more 1 TE sets than before the injury. However, every effort will be made to maintain the offense and not change the entire offense because of an injury,

 

[brdmaverick]

I know you bring up this point, but Aaron Hernandez being out for half your sample IS EVERYTHING!

 

[Ring 6]

The passing game is still TE centric, but the offense is not as much as last year. The Pats are putting a far greater emphasis on the running game this season.

One thing I will say to the theory of the passing game not being TE centric is that even before Hernandez went down, there was far more contribution being expected by receivers not named Welker, Gronk, or Hernandez. Already Ridley has caught 5 passes which is only four less than BJGE caught all of last year and he is on pace for 40 (I doubt that the loss Hernandez had anything to do with how they would use Ridley). The Pats also only had two WRs catch any significant amounts of balls and this year the Pats have three who are on pace to get around 50 balls or more. The Pats are trying not to make it all about the TEs and Welker like it was last year possibly to the team's detriment (but it is too early to tell).

This 'far greater emphasis on the run' is no more than a myth at this point.

After 2 games, one of which included runs on 10 of the last 11 plays running out the clock, we have run 43.4% of the time, compared to last year running 40.5% of the time.
Aside from those 11 clock killing plays we have run 39.6% of the time.
Another example of something being suggested that isn't really happening but everyone jumps on the idea.

 

[Ring 6]

We are a TE-centric offense in that we focus on Te's more than anyone in the league, partly because our TE tandem in the best in the history of the nfl.

We also have decided this fact this year by making sure that we had adequate backups. As of one time last week, we had 7 TE's under contract. We are likely to continue to carry 4 on our 53 man roster. Again, this concentration on TE's is probably more than anyone in the league.

Our Front Office has signed our TE's to very long contracts. This shows a commitment to TE's.

And perhaps the most basic sense of the fact that we are TE centric is that our base offense in the 2 TE, 2 WR and 1 RB set. We play other sets that include more TE's or more WR's, but the 2TE-2WR is our base set.

In the end, we are NOT really TE-centric. Rather, the patriots have a balance between WR's and TE's, in terms of 53 man roster, active roster and in terms of the importance to our offense.

Obviously, when there is an injury, we go to Plan B, which is likely to include more 1 TE sets than before the injury. However, every effort will be made to maintain the offense and not change the entire offense because of an injury,

The philosophy is simple.
In the NFL today, you stress a defense by creating mismatches. If you have a TE sized player on the field as the 5th eligible (as opposed to a FB or WR) and are a passing offense, you force the defense to choose between going small to defend the pass or staying in a base 7/4 alignment in order to be able to defend the run.
That is the basis of our offensive scheme. If the TEs are capable blockers with WR receiving skills, you have created a mismatch vs any personell grouping.

By the way, listing 7 TEs on the roster by including PUP and IR to try to prove the positions importance is silly.