Tom Brady to Brandon Lloyd: A Concern..... or Not?

[Kid~Brady]

Got into a discussion at work with a Packers fan. People aren't sold on the "Brady to Lloyd" connection yet. This actually happened sometime last week but listening to Mut & Merloni, a texter asked the same question.

Do we think this connection is valid? Will it take a few games before it develops fully? Will it develop at all?

Not placing too much weight on the pre-season but I will admit, they weren't as connected as I had hoped for. I do feel comfortable in remembering that in the 2007 pre-season, I did't recall Brady and Moss tearing things up before going 16-0, Brady throwing for 50 TDs, almost half (if not more) to Moss and going to the superbowl.

Thoughts?

 

[Gronkandez]

They'll be fine. As long as he knows where to go (which I assume he does) and doesn't drop the ball (which I assume he won't) the combo will at least be a nice upgrade from last year.

He'll get a lot of 1-on-1 coverage to the outside.

My Prediction: 65 catches, 850 yards 8 TDs

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Moss didn't play a preseason snap in 2007 IIRC. That doesn't mean that Lloyd and Brady will click immediately but it also means I'd hold off concern until it gets to be week 10 and Lloyd has Ocho stats.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Assume nothing. It will remain a concern until proven otherwise. Zolak was just saying the same thing. Pre season just didn't lend itself to establishing much this season beyond remaining concerns on offense.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Moss didn't play a preseason snap in 2007 IIRC. That doesn't mean that Lloyd and Brady will click immediately but it also means I'd hold off concern until it gets to be week 10 and Lloyd has Ocho stats.

They are not going to hold off that long, and fans will probably hold off for 2 weeks...tops.

 

[CheeseMonkeys]

I expect Lloyd to catch about 65 passes this season and how ever that happens in 16 games is still something to speculate on. Lloyd is a good player but you have to keep in mind that there are many other weapons on this offense that will take the spotlight.

 

[Sicilian]

The offense has a whole looked out of sync all preseason. I'd be more concerned about Lloyd specifically if any of the receivers (be they WR or TE) had looked normal. But even Gronk, Hernandez, and Welker (when they played) didn't look like themselves, so I'm reserving judgment on any individual until I see some extensive action by the whole group.

 

[signbabybrady]

Comparing Lloyd to Moss probably wasnt a fair way to start this duo off. But I did it anyway and so did most.

One thing to point out. Moss sat out almost all of preseason and TC in 07 but reports were that it was very much a precautionary thing and especially after the public was closed out I assume they got alot of good work in together.

On the flip side Brady and Lloyd have been in the public eye working on things all TC and that continued and continues into the non-public practices. Basically not seeing something when it wasnt being shown to us is a little different than not seeing something that is right in front of you. So I see where the concern is coming from but I think it is a little to early to jump the gun on this.

Now getting back to my level of concern. I am not concerned as I point out it was not fair to compare him to Moss and he is not being asked to be Moss. Randy had to come in and be the number one target receiving all the attention from the secondaries. All Lloyd has to do is stretch the field and make teams pay for all the attention they will give the TEs.

Bottom line is unless a defense is going to decide not to fixate on the the middle of the field where Wes and the TEs work then IMO there is almost no way this doesnt at least turn out moderately successful.

 

[KoolAid]

I think we will be pleasantly suprised with the Lloyd - Brady connection. As soon as all of the horses are out there together and start to develop a regular season rhythm, it should be fun to watch. I put no value in the way the offense looked in preseason. We still haven't seen Brady out there with Welker, Gronk, Ahern, Lloyd, et al at the same time...I think this year's offense can be like a symphony. If defenses are over emphasizing coverage of the TEs, Lloyd will have a very nice season. Hopefully, Dante works his magic again with the big uglies up front so Brady has time for the deep routes to develop.

 

[zeroakuma]

Unless Lloyd is an incompetent receiver like Chad Johnson who freelanced while with the Bengals, there shouldn't be any worrying regarding his capabilities.

He is a guy who gets the system. I mean, he learned the boy wonder's offensive schemes and fell in love with it enough to join the Patriots!

 

[Rob0729]

I wouldn't draw too much from the preseason. The starting o-line (even if Waters never returns) has yet to play together. Welker only saw the field for a couple of drives in the first game and sat out the rest of the preseason. Brady and Lloyd only saw the field themselves in the first and third games. Those three things right there will give the production (or lack there of) of the Brady to Lloyd connection. Add the fact that they seemed only calls plays to Lloyd on certain routes.

I still think Lloyd has a good shot at a 1,000 season. I never thought he would be like Moss. This offense is geared towards the TEs now. Lloyd was never brought in to be the focal point of this offense like Moss was.

 

[Kontradiction]

They'll be fine. As long as he knows where to go (which I assume he does) and doesn't drop the ball (which I assume he won't) the combo will at least be a nice upgrade from last year.

He'll get a lot of 1-on-1 coverage to the outside.

My Prediction: 65 catches, 850 yards 8 TDs

Not really. Any defense that's smart will dedicate a CB and a Safety to him. The Pats don't have anyone else (right now) that's going to beat them downfield.

 

[BSR]

I think its still very much of a concern and expectations should be set much lower than they are for most. The comparisons to Moss in 2007 are way off since Moss is a HOF caliber receiver, playing in a new offense that hadn't really been seen by many defenses and there was a new emphasis on pass interference penalties. That was like the perfect storm.

I would expect Lloyd to have anywhere from 50 to 65 receptions about 15ypr, and most likely on the lower end of that range. That would be a good season considering all of the other established receivers on this team and an oline that may not allow for many deep route opportunities. I am also a bit cautious on how the replacement ref situation is going to effect the passing game.

 

[Deus Irae]

I think it's fair to be concerned about this situation. What's interesting about this is what Brady said weeks ago, and how it appLlies to the Patriots system. That system is about "The primary receiver is the open man", aLlbeit modified in the sense of having numbered reads. With Lloyd, though, the system can't work that way. He doesn't get the kind of separation that Llends itself to such an approach. Brady has to aLlter the approach he's taken for most of his career in order for this to work.

In essence, Brady to Lloyd is going to be similar to Brady to Moss, circa 2010, where Brady is going to have to force the football to an unopen receiver and hope that the receiver wins the fight for the baLlLl. If Brady doesn't Llearn to successful read when Lloyd is in the win position in terms of the throw, we couLld see his interception rate go up.

I expect that the two of them wiLlLl eventuaLlLly work it out, but we may see some growing pains for the first few weeks of the season.

 

[Rob0729]

Not really. Any defense that's smart will dedicate a CB and a Safety to him. The Pats don't have anyone else (right now) that's going to beat them downfield.

The problem with that is it will give a lot of one on one coverages on Hernandez, Gronk, and/or Welker. Considering all these guys are big YAC guys, I think Lloyd will get far more one on one coverages than you think. I mean it is kinda pick your poison type of situation.

If Lloyd is close to what we all think he can be, the Pats will have four receivers on the field that demand double coverage. Unless you rush three all day long, there is at least one receiver who will get single coverage.

BTW, if Lloyd draws a consistent double coverage and only gets 700-800 yards, I still think it will be a huge win for the Pats because it likely means that Gronk, Hernandez, and Welker will be exploiting favorable match ups.

 

[Kontradiction]

The problem with that is it will give a lot of one on one coverages on Hernandez, Gronk, and/or Welker. Considering all these guys are big YAC guys, I think Lloyd will get far more one on one coverages than you think. I mean it is kinda pick your poison type of situation.

Not if the defense is flooding the middle of the field and the flats in the zone. Any defense playing Lloyd would be suicidal to not dedicate a corner and a safety to him. You take your chances with the Gronks, Welkers, and Herandez's, as good as they are, and a slower death. If Lloyd can consistently get open vs. one on one coverage downfield, the Patriots are suddenly breaking off chunks of yardage and scoring at a quicker rate (thus shortening the field for those TE's and Welker). Any defensive coordinator would be right to dedicate two guys to Lloyd, cut off the downfield threat, and force the Pats to sustain longer drives so that their offense has a chance of keeping up on the other side of the ball.

EDIT: Pretty dumb and dorky example, but think about it in terms of "Return of the Jedi". Gronk, Welker, and Hernandez are the Star Destroyers, Lloyd is the Death Star. Going head on at the Star Destroyers, you won't last long. But you'll last longer than you will against that Death Star.

 

[Sicilian]

Not if the defense is flooding the middle of the field and the flats in the zone. Any defense playing Lloyd would be suicidal to not dedicate a corner and a safety to him. You take your chances with the Gronks, Welkers, and Herandez's, as good as they are, and a slower death. If Lloyd can consistently get open vs. one on one coverage downfield, the Patriots are suddenly breaking off chunks of yardage and scoring at a quicker rate (thus shortening the field for those TE's and Welker). Any defensive coordinator would be right to dedicate two guys to Lloyd, cut off the downfield threat, and force the Pats to sustain longer drives so that their offense has a chance of keeping up on the other side of the ball.

EDIT: Pretty dumb and dorky example, but think about it in terms of "Return of the Jedi". Gronk, Welker, and Hernandez are the Star Destroyers, Lloyd is the Death Star. Going head on at the Star Destroyers, you won't last long. But you'll last longer than you will against that Death Star.

While I absolutely appreciate the reference, I think you're underestimating how quickly this offense can score using Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez in the no huddle. We scored pretty quickly last year with those guys and only Branch to pull coverage deep/outside. If they actually have to dedicate two guys to Lloyd, that's more space than those three had last year.

 

[Kontradiction]

While I absolutely appreciate the reference, I think you're underestimating how quickly this offense can score using Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez in the no huddle. We scored pretty quickly last year with those guys and only Branch to pull coverage deep/outside. If they actually have to dedicate two guys to Lloyd, that's more space than those three had last year.

No doubting that, but I think people are underestimating just how much more space those three have to work with. Brady is going to be seeing a lot of zone coverage this year.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Moss didn't play a preseason snap in 2007 IIRC. That doesn't mean that Lloyd and Brady will click immediately but it also means I'd hold off concern until it gets to be week 10 and Lloyd has Ocho stats.

While that is true, I remember hearing reports from training camp where Brady-to-Moss, deep, was killing everyone, from the first snap on the first day. There was obvious good chemistry.

I wanted to hear something like that coming from Brady-Lloyd this year, but I never did. I hope I will soon, though!

 

[Sicilian]

No doubting that, but I think people are underestimating just how much more space those three have to work with. Brady is going to be seeing a lot of zone coverage this year.

For that to work you really need a line that can cause pressure without blitzing. This is where the OL concerns rear their ugly head, because until they gel, more teams will be able to do just that. If the OL gels, teams are going to have to get more aggressive, which means each of those zones is going to be a little bit bigger.