Interesting AFCE cap analysis from Jason

[Deus Irae]

Thanks for the feedback guys.

The one thing that I have wondered in digging more and more into the Patriots cap is how much things might have changed if there was some added input on the cap/personnel decisions for the team. The team has such a great combination with Brady and Belichick that it can absorb the bad deals here and there to the point where Id imagine you dont even notice it, but I wonder how much better they would be without them...

This is really key. We're in an era where the QB and the Coach cover for a lot of the GM's mistakes. We saw the same thing with the Colts for a decade and change.




And, really, get help about the whole Jets thing. It has got to be a sign of some form of mental illness.

 

[ATippett56]

Thanks for the feedback guys.

The one thing that I have wondered in digging more and more into the Patriots cap is how much things might have changed if there was some added input on the cap/personnel decisions for the team. The team has such a great combination with BradyP.S. Though I appreciate the invite I wont be abandoning my Jets. You guys wouldnt want that anyway--- as soon as I would start cheering on the Pats the Pats would go down the tubes.

Thanks for your work on the salary cap pages.

Any chance you could update to the 2013 New England Patriots salary cap page to reflect the Jonathan Fanene release and the Kyle Love contract update.

Kyle Love - New England Patriots - 2012 Player Profile - Rotoworld.com

 

[hodgey]

I saw the 18 + mil in dead money and was floored. Its easy to say that its due to the fact that BB is willing to cut his loses, therefore makes it acceptable. The sad fact is last year we were probably 1 or 2 players away from adding another championship. There has been a ton of cap wasted on guys like chad, the turd from Washington, not to mention a ton of D list players. I dont claim to be a personnel guy, but do wonder if it wouldnt be more prudent to spend the cap space on young upcomming proven talent. Brandon Carr comes to mind on defense or Red Bryant. Offense a big receiver like Brandon Marshall. I will be totally pissed if we keep 10 mil in cap room and lose another SB by 3-4 points. Last year I was a constant critic of BB personnel moves and was shocked we made it to the SB. This year I like his cut down moves in particular keeping Ebner & Dennard. The drafts have been much improved since pioli left. Free agency has not been good to us lately!!

 

[ATippett56]

I will be totally pissed if we keep 10 mil in cap room and lose another SB by 3-4 points.

With the new CBA, teams can rollover unused cap space into the following year.

 

[The Scrizz]

Thanks for the feedback guys.

The one thing that I have wondered in digging more and more into the Patriots cap is how much things might have changed if there was some added input on the cap/personnel decisions for the team. The team has such a great combination with Brady and Belichick that it can absorb the bad deals here and there to the point where Id imagine you dont even notice it, but I wonder how much better they would be without them. New England seems to go after alot of mediocre on the downside guys in hopes of getting something from them. Ocho and Shaun Ellis were two examples of recent signings like that. That would have amounted to probably an additional 6 million or so in cap room this year that could have delayed the Brady restructure or been used for better young veteran talent. Its tough to argue a team could be much better than the 12-14 wins the team seems to get every year but in hindsight there are little moves here and there that might be more obvious if you had the two stars leave the team.

P.S. Though I appreciate the invite I wont be abandoning my Jets. You guys wouldnt want that anyway--- as soon as I would start cheering on the Pats the Pats would go down the tubes.

I agree, this is great information, so thanks.

However... in your dead money calcs for the Pats next season you have them at roughly 4.5 million while the players you list adds up to less than 2 million. Where is the discrepancy? Am I missing something?

 

[The Scrizz]

Forget it. You still have Fanane listed on the active roster but appear to be counting his dead money. So taking him off there would provide around 700k savings as well so we are actually better off than we thought!

700K yeah!

 

[hodgey]

With the new CBA, teams can rollover unused cap space into the following year.

Yeah thats a plus, but I've been a constant in the now fan. Trading for future picks and rolling over cap dollars to next year is great if your not in contention. I think this is the best team we've had since the SB years. Sure would look better with any or all of the following, Brian Waters, cover corner, legitimate possesion big target #3 receiver.

 

[ATippett56]

Sure would look better with any or all of the following, Brian Waters, cover corner, legitimate possesion big target #3 receiver.

Welcome to parity in the NFL.

As for Brian Waters, don't give up hope just yet.

 

[Metaphors]

Fish: Will have lots of cap room next year, but have an historically doofus front office.

They should be on the upswing if Tannehill works out. Won't arrive this year or next, but with 2 smart offseasons (which as you say is their real challenge) they are a team to watch.

Jets: Have no room to do squat next year against their cap

The cap isn't the issue. They can shed payroll easily (Pace and Scott aren't seeing their contracts next year). The problem is that they haven't built up any quality depth in the last several years. They are always 1 or 2 injuries from being a dumpster fire and don't have ready replacements for their cap casualties next year. They are still counting on Sanchez to be a top QB and Greene to be a workhorse back. There is no plan B. House of cards built on sand.

Bills: 30% of their cap is to the DL and spend per O position only for the starters - - backups get bupkis. So pray for health.

Don't understand their approach. Seems like the exact wrong time in league history to have older linebackers who can't cover. And unless Cordy Glenn is Jake Long Jr, they don't have the right OL for a skittish QB and an injury-prone RB. Until they find a workable identity, I can't see them putting together a full season of consistent play.

Pats: 18% dead money, but percentages are the most equal position by position in the division. Most level allocation. With all that still have $9 million which can be allocated to next year for big splashes.

Dead money is primarily an accounting mechanism. Light isn't getting money this year to not play. It is accounting for money paid for past services rendered. There is some dead money that is a result of bad judgement (Ocho) and bad luck (Bodden), but I don't see too much of that for the Pats. Also, I doubt that players like Fanene, Gallery and Addai got all the money attributed to them.

As for the roster itself, all you have to do is look to 2014 to see the Pats plan in action. Assuming reasonable health and skill progression, they only need a couple of doable re-signings (Vollmer, Spikes, Mesko) and a couple of holes filled (WR, rush end, interior OL...assuming existing guys don't surprise) to have a complete roster. That is 3 seasons in advance.

That means the Pats have 2 years of FA to deal with short-term roster issues and 2 draft classes to build up roster depth for the next 3 years. While they haven't closed the deal on championships for a few years, the Pats certainly are relentlessly and maniacally executing a plan to get there year after year.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

With the new CBA, teams can rollover unused cap space into the following year.

They always could. It was just a little more complicated and required some clever phrasing in a late season contract or two. The new CBA just eliminatd the tomfoolery and made it a cut and dried matter where teams inform the league in writing prior to the new league year of the amount of unusued cap space they wish to carry over.

"The details of center Dan Koppen's five-year contract extension are in, and as expected, the Patriots used some of their salary cap surplus in 2006 with some creative accounting. Within the deal is a $1.927 million playing time incentive for special teams in 2006, which is classified as a likely-to-be-earned incentive. But the design is that Koppen won't earn that incentive, which will allow the Patriots to be credited $1.927 million on the 2007 salary cap. In short, it's a way for the Patriots to use some of their surplus this year, while at the same time, giving themselves future financial flexibility.

 

[jason423]

I agree, this is great information, so thanks.

However... in your dead money calcs for the Pats next season you have them at roughly 4.5 million while the players you list adds up to less than 2 million. Where is the discrepancy? Am I missing something?

Probably an error in my database. If I had to guess Fanene is not showing up since up above someone asked about that. I always total from my spreadsheets so sometimes I may have the numbers right in my spreadsheet but wrong on the sites tables. When I finalize New Englands practice squad and waiver claims today or tomorrow Ill fix it to reflect whatever discrepancies exist between the two.

 

[Mike the Brit]

Thanks for the feedback guys.

The one thing that I have wondered in digging more and more into the Patriots cap is how much things might have changed if there was some added input on the cap/personnel decisions for the team. The team has such a great combination with Brady and Belichick that it can absorb the bad deals here and there to the point where Id imagine you dont even notice it, but I wonder how much better they would be without them. New England seems to go after alot of mediocre on the downside guys in hopes of getting something from them. Ocho and Shaun Ellis were two examples of recent signings like that. That would have amounted to probably an additional 6 million or so in cap room this year that could have delayed the Brady restructure or been used for better young veteran talent. Its tough to argue a team could be much better than the 12-14 wins the team seems to get every year but in hindsight there are little moves here and there that might be more obvious if you had the two stars leave the team.

P.S. Though I appreciate the invite I wont be abandoning my Jets. You guys wouldnt want that anyway--- as soon as I would start cheering on the Pats the Pats would go down the tubes.

Jason, thanks so much for all you do! And please feel free to visit our board any time you like. True, we do have a thread where we mock the afflicted but elsewhere we welcome the perspective of sane and rational (OK, only slightly insane) fans of other teams.

I think you've got your finger on part of what leads to the high number.

Yes, BB is a dedicated bottom feeder. He's like the horseplayer who loves to back outsiders. There's some reason to it -- it's true that a lot of players get written off too early by coaches/GMs who are obsessed with "re-building". BB's attitude is that every season is a new one and he'll do the best with what he has at the time. And he has had a lot of success with oldsters -- think of Rodney Harrison, Brian Cox, Brian Waters, Alge Crumpler. All gave him good service -- and were dumped like used kleenex as soon as he thought their day was done.

Looking at the individual players, first,there were some plain misjudgements (Ochocinco, Fanene -- Adalius Thomas and Derek Burgess earlier). But there are more players who, through age and injury fell off more quickly than expected -- guys like Bodden, Warren, Kaczur. I think that's a price BB is prepared to pay.

As others have pointed out, his ruthlessness serves the team better than other coaches not admitting their mistakes. There is *very* little dead money for players who have actually gone on to make an impact elsewhere.

It also sends a very powerful message to the players. BB isn't someone who motivates his team by ranting and raving, but they know that they have to perform or else. Past performance may get you a contract, but it's only current performance that keeps you a Patriot.

 

[ALP]

the % we have invested in IR is way more than other teams

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Thanks Jason for your cap work. Much appreciated!
But take a tip from me and lose the hockey mask.

 

[slam]

Thanks for the feedback guys.

The one thing that I have wondered in digging more and more into the Patriots cap is how much things might have changed if there was some added input on the cap/personnel decisions for the team. The team has such a great combination with Brady and Belichick that it can absorb the bad deals here and there to the point where Id imagine you dont even notice it, but I wonder how much better they would be without them. New England seems to go after alot of mediocre on the downside guys in hopes of getting something from them. Ocho and Shaun Ellis were two examples of recent signings like that. That would have amounted to probably an additional 6 million or so in cap room this year that could have delayed the Brady restructure or been used for better young veteran talent. Its tough to argue a team could be much better than the 12-14 wins the team seems to get every year but in hindsight there are little moves here and there that might be more obvious if you had the two stars leave the team.

P.S. Though I appreciate the invite I wont be abandoning my Jets. You guys wouldnt want that anyway--- as soon as I would start cheering on the Pats the Pats would go down the tubes.

My feeling has always been that Belichick prefers to trade premium opportunities which cost more in money and resources for more lower percentage opportunities. The times that he trades back and accumulates picks. The eschewing the one huge big name free agent in lieu of signing three more unheralded, affordable free agents. He does move up for the right players, but when in doubt he tries to buys himself more chances, even if some of them are more lower percentage.

It's worth noting that his undoing in Cleveland was when he opened the checkbook for Andre Rison, which backfired in all sorts of ways if I remember correctly.

I think he realizes that any player, no matter how "can't miss" the reports say, can be a bust. Every organization has drafted busts. It's unavoidable. Every organization has signed free agents who've flamed out for whatever reason. But if your math and research tells you that drafting high in the first round yields an 80% chance of hitting on a great player but drafting in the second round yields a 50% chance, what would you do if the trades you can make gives you the option of trading up for one 80% chance or back for three 50% chances? Now take into account the salaries you'd have to pay if you chose a high first round bust rather than one or more second round busts.

Anyway, that's my theory.

 

[eom]

jason - can I assume you're equally against the welker and moss trades, as well as th emore recent signings of waters, carter, and anderson?

or is it just a bad idea when the guy doesn't pan out?
if you throw out the misses, you have to throw out the hits, and I'd happily miss on 8 guys to hit on moss and welker.

let's see how lloyd works out -- are you for or against this one?

 

[SB39]

But - but - but I thought the Patriots were the cheapest team in the league!

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I checked Miguel's old records for dead cap and as I recalled it was in the low to mid teens in 2002-2003 as a result of the continued re-build/tool/culture change. Then it settled into the mid single digits between 2004-2009 even while absorbing a miscalculation like the Dillon extension. It balooned in 2010 as could be expected in an uncapped season lots of teams took some measure of advantage of. $24M in dead cap absorbed. Then in 2011 it was back to the mid single digits.

Miguel also factored in IR to his figures. Jason seperates them (although our current $4.5M doesn't seem to register on the graph as does other teams).

Combine the two figures and we are approaching an equivalent dead cap in 2012 to the uncapped year... $23M. Almost 20% of our total cap. That can't be a good thing in a capped year.

Eight players generate the bulk of the dead cap. Light was obviously by design. Bodden, Warren, TBC, Ocho, Fanene, Kaczur, Butler were miscalculations. Hopefully they've gotten that out of their system for the duration. Thereafter the damage is below the mid six figure range and multiple five figure hits and while there were also some miscalculations there for sure, those (totalling mid single digit dead cap) are the cost of doing business.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

jason - can I assume you're equally against the welker and moss trades, as well as th emore recent signings of waters, carter, and anderson?

or is it just a bad idea when the guy doesn't pan out?
if you throw out the misses, you have to throw out the hits, and I'd happily miss on 8 guys to hit on moss and welker.

let's see how lloyd works out -- are you for or against this one?

Yeah, it is just a bad idea when the guy doesn't pan out. Same deal in the real world. Acknowledging it is part of that thing they preach here called accountablity. And while the Welker and Moss trades worked out swimmingly, the Moss extension was probably a miscalculation to some extent. Kind of like the Dillon trade vs. extension.

 

[scout]

I've had a few days to reflect on the dead money chart and come away with: BB has no problem pulling the trigger on a vet, pick, or fa, who is beat out by someone else (it may even go deeper then that). I always think back to the 49er's dynasty when Bill Walsh would let go big name vets early rather then late (Ronny Lott), and that was before the salary cap.