A Jake Ballard theory

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Ballard tore his ACL a month later than Wes did (Super Bowl vs. 1st playoff game).

Wes Welker's recovery time was also exceptionally fast; outside of the norm by a lot. A bigger guy is more often than not going to have a longer recovery time, since the repaired knee will need to support more weight and torque.

Plus some reports were out there that Ballard tore the ACL and PCL on one knee and had a torn miniscus on the other knee.

Jake Ballard Injury: Update on Team Giant's TE's Knee Injury | Bleacher Report

bottom line: it would be shocking to see him in uniform before the summer of 2013, and also it's probably not in his best interest in terms of his career to rush back

 

[fumbrunner]

Shank caught many balls in Minnesota. Even without a healthy Ballard, they have a stud in Gronk and a decent pass catching TE in Shiancoe. I agree with the theory that Hernandez will play more and more outside the TE position.

 

[Dragda]

Here's some interesting stats about where Hernandez lined up last year:

Snap Distribution and You - Football Daily Dose - Rotoworld.com

To summarize...

Hernandez was in the slot or wide 64% of his snaps. He was an in-line tight end on only 29% of his snaps (compared to 61% in-line for Gronkowski).

What's interesting is that Hernandez was targeted at a much lower rate when he was split wide. Which, maybe suggests he wasn't getting open on the outside - maybe not, we can't really make that leap I suppose.

Bottom line, Hernandez played wide receiver a lot last year. And the Patriots rewarded him accordingly, I believe, knowing that WRs make more than TEs, generally. Hernandez plays everywhere in the Pats system, to call him a WR or TE, almost doesn't matter.

I could look at the all-22 to see if he got open when split wide. Does this stat give any clues as to which opponents I could look at?

 

[IllegalContact]

Same height, bigger by only 10 pounds and with a 40 time a lot worse than Gronk's. Don't get me started on the difference in athleticism.

you may get started on whatever you want.....

ballard is bigger than gronk

I don't recall any conversation about 40 times

 

[fester]

I think you are overthinking it and connecting too many dots that are at best minimally connected.

1) The decision to IR or PUP Ballard has no differentiating costs in cap space or more importantly roster space for at least the next 6 weeks, if not the next 9 weeks. The Patriots are indifferent in either case.

2) There is a chance (probability unknown) that Ballard will be football ready or at least practice ready by Week 6, at which point in this conditional probability, the cost of seeing if he is game ready by Week 9 is again nil.

3) Injuries happen at all positions and at all times.

Working with #1 and #2, putting Ballard on PUP instead of IR is just a free form of an option in case of #3 if #2 works out. Worse comes to worse, the Patriots look at Ballard between Week 6 and Week 9, and say "Nope, we're not seeing enough progress to get you on the field this year ... have fun with the training staff until OTAs in the spring...."

The Pats gain nothing if they put him on IR, and have the possibility of a gain going on the PUP route. It is a cheap, no downside, some upside move.

Ok, Ballard is now on the PUP list, apparently to protect him from poaching. But maybe something else is going on....

Stallworth and Gaffney are released.

Hernandez has a great camp, is being tried out in several different positions.

A possible explanation:

Hernandez is going to be a WR--no need for Gaffney or Stallworth. Ballard is in better shape than anyone knew. He'll be filling Hernandez's place at TE.

Fells and Shiancoe are backups, and only one will stick.

What do you think, guys?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Working with #1 and #2, putting Ballard on PUP instead of IR is just a free form of an option in case of #3 if #2 works out. Worse comes to worse, the Patriots look at Ballard between Week 6 and Week 9, and say "Nope, we're not seeing enough progress to get you on the field this year ... have fun with the training staff until OTAs in the spring...."

One thing to note, BTW, is that the Pats have until Week 9 to start his three-week evaluation window, so he could come back as late as Week 12.

 

[Ring 6]

Here's some interesting stats about where Hernandez lined up last year:

Snap Distribution and You - Football Daily Dose - Rotoworld.com

To summarize...

Hernandez was in the slot or wide 64% of his snaps. He was an in-line tight end on only 29% of his snaps (compared to 61% in-line for Gronkowski).

What's interesting is that Hernandez was targeted at a much lower rate when he was split wide. Which, maybe suggests he wasn't getting open on the outside - maybe not, we can't really make that leap I suppose.

Bottom line, Hernandez played wide receiver a lot last year. And the Patriots rewarded him accordingly, I believe, knowing that WRs make more than TEs, generally. Hernandez plays everywhere in the Pats system, to call him a WR or TE, almost doesn't matter.

Well, numbers are only as good as how you massacre them.
Hernandez in the slot is playing TE. Call it Hback, or whatever you want, but he is DEFENDED as a TE.
When he is wide, again it is in a personell grouping where he is treated like a TE.

We wonlt have Gronk and Fells as 2 TE and Welker and Hernandez as WRs, where Hernandez is covered by a corner.
If you have Hernandez covered by a corner, he is mediocre.
That is why he is a TE, because he gets covered by LBs and S.

 

[Ring 6]

Though MaineFan's point really doesn't make too much sense, Hernandez has lined up at both TE and WR (and tailback for that matter) a lot. He's a mismatch all over the field. Harder to cover for corners because of his size, harder to cover for LB's because of his elusiveness and speed. With this in mind, I think mediocre is a little bit of a harsh word to use.

His advantage is speed/quickness vs LBs and safeties.
The size advantage vs corners is overwhelmed by the speed/quickness factor.
Being 40-50 lbs heavier than the guy covering you isn't a tremendous advantage in the passing game. The advantage comes in that when we use that personell package the defense CANT treat him like a WR, or we would run over a dime defense with 2 TEs.

 

[PatsFan2]

Well, numbers are only as good as how you massacre them.
Hernandez in the slot is playing TE. Call it Hback, or whatever you want, but he is DEFENDED as a TE.
When he is wide, again it is in a personell grouping where he is treated like a TE.

We wonlt have Gronk and Fells as 2 TE and Welker and Hernandez as WRs, where Hernandez is covered by a corner.
If you have Hernandez covered by a corner, he is mediocre.That is why he is a TE, because he gets covered by LBs and S.

Great point AJ...AH can be very Good or Great when not matched up against a CB.

 

[goheels22002]

actually, ballard is bigger than gronk

Holy crap! Bigger than Gronk?

And an excellent pass receiver: Jake Ballard Highlights - YouTube

When Ballard comes back, Belichick will cut Welker and put the little feller, Rob Gronkowski, in the slot.

Holy crap!

 

[BBass]

We had a prolific passing game last season with Welker, Branch, Gronk and Hernandez.

We added Brandon Lloyd a all pro quality outside receiver. Gronk and Hernandez are entering their 3rd seasons which should lead to further development as players. Edelman has reportedly been impressive in camp as a WR and will not be distracted by defensive responsibilities.

Gaffney and Stallworth were brought in by BB to compete for jobs as options 5, 6, or 7. I would suggest that them being released does not symbolize a change in approach or positional changes for Hernandez or anyone else. The only need our passing game had was outside receiver, we filled that with Lloyd.

Aaron Hernandez will play the same role as last year, I would only suggest he may be featured more. He is 6'3 250+ lbs and can lineup inside or out. The decision on if he is covered by a CB, S or LB isn't based on a position title or spot on the field its is made by the opposing team and who they decided to use on him. Either way he is a great player who will win most one on one battles against any defender.

 

[Avenger]

I thought teams tried covering Hernandez with a CB, but got out muscled by him?

 

[Nehalem]

Same height, bigger by only 10 pounds and with a 40 time a lot worse than Gronk's. Don't get me started on the difference in athleticism.

Looking it up Gronk had a 40 of 4.68, Ballard had a 40 of 4.84.

How many 275lbs men are going to have a 40 faster than him?

And considering he averaged 15.9yds/rec last year his 40 does not seem to be harming him too much. Gronk only averaged 14.7

Now not saying that Ballard is as good as Gronk. But if he fully recovers from his knee injury I do not exactly think you can call him a stone footed scrub either.

 

[BBass]

Looking it up Gronk had a 40 of 4.68, Ballard had a 40 of 4.84.

How many 275lbs men are going to have a 40 faster than him?

And considering he averaged 15.9yds/rec last year his 40 does not seem to be harming him too much. Gronk only averaged 14.7

Now not saying that Ballard is as good as Gronk. But if he fully recovers from his knee injury I do not exactly think you can call him a stone footed scrub either.

I think Ballard was brought in for depth and value. I do not think the offensive philosophy is going to change based on him being here. Last season Hernandez missed time with a knee injury, and Gronk was hobbled with an ankle injury. Ballard offers protection in that area, he also is solid run blocker who can get open in play action.

Long term maybe if he develops further we could suggest this theory but to think the decision to cut Gaffney and Stallworth to move Hernandez to WR for a player who may or may not play at all this season is greatly over valuing Ballard and under valuing BB decision making skills.

BB simply saw a good player at a low cost who could bring something either to the team or in a trade long term and scooped him up. I would suggest Ballard hasn't been brought up once in scheming or roster decisions.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Here's some interesting stats about where Hernandez lined up last year:

Snap Distribution and You - Football Daily Dose - Rotoworld.com

To summarize...

Hernandez was in the slot or wide 64% of his snaps. He was an in-line tight end on only 29% of his snaps (compared to 61% in-line for Gronkowski).

What's interesting is that Hernandez was targeted at a much lower rate when he was split wide. Which, maybe suggests he wasn't getting open on the outside - maybe not, we can't really make that leap I suppose.

Bottom line, Hernandez played wide receiver a lot last year. And the Patriots rewarded him accordingly, I believe, knowing that WRs make more than TEs, generally. Hernandez plays everywhere in the Pats system, to call him a WR or TE, almost doesn't matter.

The Patriots actually didn't reward him accordingly... His new money average (+/-$8M) will be an elite TE rate for the forseeable future but potentially a little less at the back end. Not ever elite WR money. And his overall 7 year average (<$6M) will be below elite TE or above average WR money throughout.

 

[Nehalem]

I think Ballard was brought in for depth and value. I do not think the offensive philosophy is going to change based on him being here. Last season Hernandez missed time with a knee injury, and Gronk was hobbled with an ankle injury. Ballard offers protection in that area, he also is solid run blocker who can get open in play action.

Long term maybe if he develops further we could suggest this theory but to think the decision to cut Gaffney and Stallworth to move Hernandez to WR for a player who may or may not play at all this season is greatly over valuing Ballard and under valuing BB decision making skills.

BB simply saw a good player at a low cost who could bring something either to the team or in a trade long term and scooped him up. I would suggest Ballard hasn't been brought up once in scheming or roster decisions.

I agree. Ballard likely does not figure into any specific plans for this year.

But he does offer interesting possibilities for next year.

 

[strngplyr]

We want Hernandez matched up with a Slot or Nickel CB not with a #1 or #2 CB. He would have harder time shaking thoe guys...Jake Ballard is slower than molasses. Jake Ballard really benefits from a good running game so he can do most of his stuff off play action. But in our pass first Offense he couldn't get open if his life depends on it.

He had a pretty good season behind the 32nd ranked run offense.

 

[Fencer]

BB likes the flexibility that Gronk and Hernandez provide and the fact that it is hard for a defense to match personell with them particularly with a quarterback like Brady who will recognize who is on the field and audible the play according that exposes the weakness. I wouldn't be surpised to see more three tight end sets this year with Hernandez more in a tweener role between WR and TE.

Agreed.

And if one looks at things that way, 4 TEs total (inc. receiving-oriented ones) vs. 3 + 2 WRs total (inc. ST-oriented ones) looks like a reasonable fit.

The big problem concern is that the field needs to be stretched HORIZONTALLY (or diagonally, as it were), to counteract the defenses that spread the center. That's where Hernandez-as-WR would have to make his living.

 

[BradyManny]

The Patriots actually didn't reward him accordingly... His new money average (+/-$8M) will be an elite TE rate for the forseeable future but potentially a little less at the back end. Not ever elite WR money. And his overall 7 year average (<$6M) will be below elite TE or above average WR money throughout.

That's fair. But I would compare Hernandez' to Gronk's - if you asked me a week ago, I didn't think it would stack up so well. Gronk obviously has more production, even if - and this is a frightening thought for opposing D's - Hernandez, to me, might even be the more dangerous weapon. But what I see is the Pats extending Hernandez rather generously, a little more generously than expected, and perhaps in part since they knew his PT at WR gives him negotiating leverage.

 

[BananaRepublican]

Agree on AHern WR role.

I'm a bit unsure of this consensus. I see him lining up wide on a situational basis, not a full time basis. He's not a WR. He's not as fast or as quick as a WR, and he would not get open much as a full time WR.

Actually I see his role as something undefined at this moment. It's in the process of morphing and I expect the unexpected.

I think it's possible to see Ballard this year which is really a strange concept. Was't this injury a career ending event or a two year event yesterday? Man, I must be old.