Am I Too Confident?

[aluminum seats]

I pride myself on being (I think) a pretty objective fan. In this game, I do wish Rodney was playing--even though Sanders has improved, a healthy Harrison would be huge. The Colts obviously have 2 great wideouts, a very good tight end, and a super QB. Also, while our kicker has looked good, you'd have to choose the guy's who's been there so many times before.

But. I feel ENORMOUSLY confident the Patriots will win. I think playing on the road isn't really a negative at all, and the Pats offense has finally found a groove. I think the Pats will be able to run, and throw on the Colts' D. I love the fact that the Patriots are underdogs, with the vast majority of "experts" picking the Colts. When I look at the various possible outcomes here, I'm really hardpressed to find one where the Patriots lose. We'll score around thirty, and I think we'll throttle their running game again. I don't think Harrison & Wayne will get 250 yards receiving again, and I don't think we'll turn it over 5 times. I'm nervous the way you ALWAYS feel nervous before a big game, and special teams plays, deflected passes, fluke stuff, etc. can always come along. But I'm just confident here.........I know this is a Pats' message board, so it's a positive place, but honestly--am I being overconfident?

 

[mgteich]

And why is that you don't think that Harrison,Wayne,Moorehead,Clark, Utrect won't get 250 receiving? Did we pick up a corner this week?

I think we can and will win. I also think we will need more than 30.

 

[Keegs]

no, I am confident too. I just don't see them losing.

the great thing is that they are the Pats and they've never lost a AFC championship game and we all expect them to win and don't see them losing.

A lot of thing have to happen for them to lose:

-Peyton Manning playing a good game. He has to play well for them to win, and that's a fact.
-Tom Brady playing a bad game.
-our defense playing like crap
-their defense playing well


when you look at it this way, it is hard to see how the Colts will win, especially when u factor in their failure in the playoffs every single year.

I'm still nervous though, as i always am when i play them.

whenever anyone mentions the games this weekend, EVEN THE BEARS GAME, i get butterflies in my stomach.

 

[aluminum seats]

No, we didn't pick up a corner, but Harrison & Wayne alone accounted for 250 (or close to it) in the last game. There's a big difference between adjusting after Rodney goes down in the first series and now, after several weeks of Sanders starting.

 

[Ceresco]

I honestly dont think the Colts will score a touchdown the entire game instead I see them settling for 4 field goals. I'm probably overconfident but I see it as a good thing

 

[PatsMan26]

You are def. too confident. Who cares what the colts have done in the playoffs the past few years. That has nothing to do with this year.

 

[aluminum seats]

No--read my post. My confidence isn't based on what the Colts have done the last few years, but the two teams playing on Sunday. Although it would be idiotic to discount the Brady/Belichick vs. Manning/Dungy match-ups.

As to the Pats needing more than 30 to win--TOTALLY disagree.

 

[STFarmy]

I'm way more confident about this game than last week's game. This isn't to say that I think that Pats are a lock to win, I think acutally that the Colts have just as much as chance to beat them at the Bolts did. But I just don't have the same reservations as I did last Sunday.

 

[JTO Smooth]

I wish I were as overconfident as you obviously are.

It's going to be a dogfight at the Hoosier Dome and everything is lined up for the Colts to win. I see 3 potential outcomes:

1. The Pats win a squeaker at the gun
2. The Colts win a squeaker at the gun
3. The Colts absolutely blow us away

 

[aluminum seats]

I guess I should have been clearer--for those who think I'm too confident, I'm curious as to WHY........beyond "it's all lined up for the Colts to win."

 

[Keegs]

And why is that you don't think that Harrison,Wayne,Moorehead,Clark, Utrect won't get 250 receiving? Did we pick up a corner this week?

I think we can and will win. I also think we will need more than 30.

what makes you think we need over 30 to beat the Colts in a playoff game?

 

[psychoPat]

Almost 2 weeks ago, i had posted that i thought
the winner of the SanDi game would become the SuperBowl champion.

The Colts are a team that we know how to beat ...
and often have beaten.
The Chargers were neither.
Having surmounted the Chargers challenge ...
i still find the Colts to be a lesser - though still formidable - obstacle.

 

[PF1996]

I think you're too confident given these facts...

1. The Patriots have not shown a RECENT ability to stop the Colts receivers. Also, the Patriots secondary play in that game was TYPICAL of their play all year - giving 5-10 yard cushions to receivers, allowing the receiver enough separation to make a solid catch, giving up big chunks of yards through the air. Thus, there isn't any basis to believe that things will be any different in this game - i.e. that the Colts receivers will be stopped or even contained. I hope very much that I'm wrong, but nothing about the Pats secondary play this year makes me confident that I am.

2. The Patriots inconsistent offense, primarily their inability to run the football as well as Brady's inaccuracy and increasing tendency to force the ball to/stare down certain receivers. Indy's D, is average and can be scored upon but I'm not confident that the Patriots will take advantage because they aren't runblocking well and Brady isn't playing well.

 

[aluminum seats]

I think you're too confident given these facts...

1. The Patriots have not shown a RECENT ability to stop the Colts receivers. Also, the Patriots secondary play in that game was TYPICAL of their play all year - giving 5-10 yard cushions to receivers, allowing the receiver enough separation to make a solid catch, giving up big chunks of yards through the air. Thus, there isn't any basis to believe that things will be any different in this game - i.e. that the Colts receivers will be stopped or even contained. I hope very much that I'm wrong, but nothing about the Pats secondary play this year makes me confident that I am.

2. The Patriots inconsistent offense, primarily their inability to run the football as well as Brady's inaccuracy and increasing tendency to force the ball to/stare down certain receivers. Indy's D, is average and can be scored upon but I'm not confident that the Patriots will take advantage because they aren't runblocking well and Brady isn't playing well.

Good post. I disagree with the 2nd point, as it seems overstated. Inconsistent or not, the Pats offense is putting points on the board--the Colts defense has improved, but the Pats will unquestionably score mid-20's.

Your first point is clearly the big chance for the Colts here, but this is where the lack of a consistent running game will doom Indy. The Jets were able to pass quite well against us, but in the red zone, the ability to run becomes paramount. The Colts scored TDs in the first game, I think, because Sanders was a clear weak link, having to go into the game on short notice. The basis for believing things will be different is based on the idea that the Colts will be settling for field goals tomorrow.

 

[Patriotic Fervor]

I think you're too confident given these facts...

1. The Patriots have not shown a RECENT ability to stop the Colts receivers. Also, the Patriots secondary play in that game was TYPICAL of their play all year - giving 5-10 yard cushions to receivers, allowing the receiver enough separation to make a solid catch, giving up big chunks of yards through the air. Thus, there isn't any basis to believe that things will be any different in this game - i.e. that the Colts receivers will be stopped or even contained. I hope very much that I'm wrong, but nothing about the Pats secondary play this year makes me confident that I am.

2. The Patriots inconsistent offense, primarily their inability to run the football as well as Brady's inaccuracy and increasing tendency to force the ball to/stare down certain receivers. Indy's D, is average and can be scored upon but I'm not confident that the Patriots will take advantage because they aren't runblocking well and Brady isn't playing well.

All the Patriots need is a big score early - very early - on in the game. That will have the Colts hearing the footsteps of their Patriot bogeyman.

That's all they need.

There are other ways to win, of course, but if the above scenario comes to pass, I really like their chances.

This is not to say that if this does come to pass the Colts won't play well. They very well could, but every play, every series, will have a backdrop that's just a little eerie for them, and as the game proceeds further along, could give rise to that proverbial fraction of a second where worlds collide, and games are won or lost by mysterious breeches in the time-space continuum that few see, fewer grasp, and virtually none understand.

The fate of nations has turned on less, you know....

 

[shirtsleeve]

I am confident, too. As long as the refs let the teams play, as they have so far in the post season, and not like last year, the Pats will win solidly.

Big News! The Dolts D really is all smoke and mirrrors! When a team puts 8 or 9 in the box, and the morons on the other side run into it with standard blocking schemes, D'uh! The Pats will exploit this sham for what it is.

On D, I see us going nickel and dime all day, giving up short and medium runs in order to hamstring the Dolts passing attack. If this team scores more than 20 on us I will be shocked! That doesn't mean that they wont move the ball. But scoring is going to be tough sledding against us.

 

[IcyPatriot]

I am very confident and I think that is okay. I think we have a great chance to beat the Colts if we execute properly. No need for smoke and mirrors or stifling game plans ... we can beat them the old fashioned way.

However, it would not surprise me if they beat us and nor would it bother me. If we have a bad day I'd rather it's the Colts than any other team if they win. There's no shame in losing to a good team ... so if it's the Colts I'm okay with that ....

I just think they only have @ 10% > 15% chance of winning this game. Injuries to our secondary, turnovers, tipped passes is the only hope they have.

 

[aluminum seats]

It's interesting to look at the play-by-play of the pats/colts game earlier this year. Look at the just the drive recap, with a couple of notes:

Pats INT (on a first down from Indy's 34, on the 10th play of the drive)

Indy TD (7-0)

Pats TD (7-7)

Indy TD (14-7)

Pats TD (14-14)

Indy FG (after a kickoff return to Pats 29) (17-14)

Pats INT (after driving to Indy 40)

HALFTIME (17-14)

Indy missed FG

Dillon Fumble on Pats 31

Indy Punt

Pats Punt (passed on 3 of 4 plays)

Indy TD (24-14)

Pats FG (after 3 straight incompletions, out of the shotgun, from the Indy 31) (24-17)

Indy fumble on kickoff (at Indy 43)

Pats missed FG (after Dillon for 9, Maroney for 4, and 3/4 passes)

Indy INT

Pats INT

Indy FG (27-17)

Pats FG (27-20)

Indy missed FG

Pats INT

Bottom line, the Pats D struggled against the pass, after Harrison went down in the first drive. Offensively, the Patriots clearly went away from the run when the game was still well within reach. Conversely, after the Colts scored the first 3 times they had the ball, only scored 10 points the rest of the way (granted, helped by missed FGs). But down 7 in the second half, both times after the Colts turned the ball over the Pats got pass happy, and that was ballgame.

 

[aluminum seats]

BTW, am I the only one who thinks Vinitieri's gonna miss one? I hope the Pats are all real nice to him before the game--the one thing that can take a competitor out of his game is a lot of love from the ex-team, like Pedro at Fenway this year.

 

[Ring 6]

You are def. too confident. Who cares what the colts have done in the playoffs the past few years. That has nothing to do with this year.

I disagree. Of course th eplays that occurred in those games dont impact this one, but they are a very good example of the capabilities of the teams.

Look at it this way. If Josh Beckett has a 1.50 ERA over the last 3 years against the Orioles, none of those stats will be included in the next game, but there is a very strong indication that he will do well. No guarantee, but evidence that Josh Beckett has an advantage against those hitters.

Its the same thing here. Coming up short in big games in the past isnt added to the scoreboard in the future, but it is an indication of a flaw within that team.
The 'chokes' don't get put on the scoreboard tomorrow, but the REASONS THAT CAUSED THEM are present, and those reasons recurring have a lot to do with tomorrows game.

"Being clutch" is an intangible quality in a team. Its not tangible because having it or not having shows up in different areas on different teams. (For example, bad running teams struggling in the playoffs can be quantified by looking at running stats. There is no stat to look at to quantify clutch ability) But it IS very real. My opinion is it eminates from coaching and preparation. Think of the difference in any line of work between good and mediocre employees. Most times, "experience" is cited. Experience really boils down to having been in the situation before and gotten through it, so you aren't flustered and get the job done to your capability.
While the Patriots and Colts have big game experience, the Patriots experience has been to come out on top, while the Colts has been to fail.

Everyone draws on experience in whatever situation they are in. The Patriots will draw on the experience of succeeding, while the Colts are drawing on the experience of failing. There is no way in the world, you can convince me that given that the Patriots are not more likely to play to the maximum of thier capability in those clutch spots than the Colts are.
Doesn't mean the Colts will choke and the Patriots won't, but it certainly slants the likelihood of it.