Patriots @ Colts - MY Preview

[RyanTheColtsFan]

WHEN NEW ENGLAND HAS THE BALL
ADVANTAGE: Patriots

Dillon, Maroney, Faulk, Watson, Graham, Brown, Graffney, Caldwell. Indianapolis will have to defend more weapons than their previous 4 teams played have (Baltimore, Kansas City, Miami, and Houston) ... combined. Not to mention an offensive line that completely dominated one of the toughest defensive lines in football last week. And there's that Tom Brady guy. Possibly the best post season QB in NFL history.

STOPPING THE OFFENSE:

During the regular season, the NE backs averaged 4.1 yards per carry. While I do love Bob Sanders and what he does for the Colts defense, i'm not sold on the run defense. It's better, but no where near great. If the Patriots come out passing, the Colts can't get trapped into staying in pass coverage. The Triple Threat (Dillon, Maroney, Faulk) will eat them alive; especially on first downs. Indianapolis can't sell out trying to stop Tom Brady by letting the NE backs 8-10 yard gains on draw plays and screens. That slows the game down and keeps Manning & Co. off the field.

KEY MATCHUP:

Indianapolis DL vs. Patriots OL - Who controls the line of scrimmage? Will Brady have time to get the ball to his receivers?

WHEN THE COLTS HAVE THE BALL
ADVANTAGE: COLTS

Alot has been said about Manning having a horrible post-season thus far but he's done enough to get the Colts to the AFCCG. He's winning ugly but apparently that's not allowed anywhere but NE. The offense is going to have to be on Sunday or this game won't be close. While I don't think Addai/Rhodes will have much room to run, it's important to commit to the run and keep that NE defense honest. The more predictable Peyton is, the more trouble he's going to find himself in. Teddy Bruschi and Mike Vrabel combined for almost 200 tackles during the regular season. If they can tackle the Colts WR's on the "Dink and Dunk" routes they've been running for weeks now, NE should be in good shape.

STOPPING THE OFFENSE:

If NE can get pressure on Manning without having to blitz, the Colts offense may be toast. As seen in the last two meetings, the Patriots secondary does not fool Manning anymore and bringing the LB's in to blitz will leave Clark/Utech wide open down the middle of the field.

KEY MATCHUP:

Colts WR vs. Patriots DB's. Will the physical play by the NE secondary be enough to stop Harrison and Wayne? Will they be allowed to play physical?

SPECIAL TEAMS:
ADVANTAGE: Patriots

Newcomer Stephen Gostkowski missed just 5 FG's during the regular season and officially paid his post-season dues last week in San Diego. Former NE icon Adam Vinatieri is now a member of the Colts. Edge to Indy here but that's where it ends.

KEY MATCHUP:

Wilkins vs. NE return team

The Colts averaged 9.0 yards per punt return during the regular season. The Patriots averaged 11.7 yards per punt return. The Colts averaged 23.6 yards per kick return. The Patriots averaged 26.8 yards per kick return. In the post season, it's all about field position. And while most people think Special Teams is just about kickers, it's not. The NE Patriots have a CLEAR edge in both return games.

FINAL SAY:

Colts 31
Patriots 23

I think both teams struggle in the first half offensively. A 10-10 tie going into the break sounds about right. Colts offense breaks out in the second half (per usual) and does just enough to secure a victory.

Manning: 28-38 for 279 2TD's, 1INT.

Addai: 21 rushes, 64 yards, 2TD.
Rhodes, 13 rushes, 36 yards.

Harrison: 6 catches, 66 yards, 1TD.
Wayne: 4 catches, 70 yards.
Clark: 5 catches, 53 yards, 1TD.
(Others fill the totals)

Brady: 24-31, 303 yards, 2TD's.

Dillon: 11 rushes, 63 yards.
Maroney: 17 rushes, 74 yards.
Faulk: 4 rushes, 11 yards.

Gaffney: 7 catches, 97 yards, 1TD.
Caldwell: 4 catches, 82 yards.
Graham: 2 catches, 7 yards. 1TD.
Brown: 5 catches, 27 yards.
(Others fill the totals)

 

[patsfan13]

While there are points I disagree with Ryan (especially the final score ), the write up was a good one. I would rate the PAts D a bit higher based on being 2nd in the NFL in pts allowed.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Not an unreasonable scenario Ryan. You're giving each team 5 scores. I think it will be a high scoring game also. Will come down to which team can stop the other in the red zone. In SB XXXV1 we hardly blitzed the Rams at all. After blitzing something like 38straight plays in reg. season. NE will play more coverage and take away the big play. I think NE will be more effective running the ball in red zone than Indy. Holding Colts to fg's instead of td's. NE winning by something like your score.

 

[patsox23]

Interesting and balanced take, as usual, Ryan. Always good to see you here.

Can't say I agree with the final but that's to be expected. I'd be very surprised if the Pats gave up 4 TD's - they're just too good in the red area. Also, the Pats played like CRAP vs. Indy last time and gave up the most points in a game all year - 27. Now, healthier, more adjusted to Rodney's absence, playing far more consistently, they're going to give up 31???

Don't think so. Not saying you can't win, but I doubt we give up that many points.

 

[BelichickFan]

The main problem I have here is that you have the Patriots outgaining the Colts by 79 yards + (correctly) giving the ST edge to the Patriots so make that about 100 yards but the Colts winning by 8. Sure, the Colts could do so if the Colts REALLY win the Red Zone battle but if you tell me tonight the Patriots (including ST) outgain the Colts by 100 yards, I think the Patriots are winning the game.

 

[RyanTheColtsFan]

The main problem I have here is that you have the Patriots outgaining the Colts by 79 yards + (correctly) giving the ST edge to the Patriots so make that about 100 yards but the Colts winning by 8. Sure, the Colts could do so if the Colts REALLY win the Red Zone battle but if you tell me tonight the Patriots (including ST) outgain the Colts by 100 yards, I think the Patriots are winning the game.

I figured someone would notice that.

I AM banking on the Colts shutting down NE in the redzone and forcing a fumble or two by Dillon/Maroney. These stupid previews I do are just a bunch of hunches after watching way too much football.

 

[italia44]

Pretty good,Ryan,it's great to hear analysis without the usual hyperbole(from both sides....I hate just as much,when Patriot fans say stupid homer rants,also.)

However,I think you're overselling the points for Indy,without getting any turnovers and with the time of possession the Patriots would have with that amount of rushing production.

I think you're underestimating the total yards received by your top receivers(Harrison,Wayne and D Clark).I would expect that Manning will easily get 24-30 catches from this group,as I don't think Indy will be able to run successfully against the 3-4/4-3 of the Patriots.

Let's say there will be 1 turnover apiece betwwen each team,I would then expect this game to be a battle between New England's ball control vs. Indy's scoring prowess.

This leads me to predict a battle of touchdowns,rather than field goals.....this is an advantage to Manning and the Colts.
The X-Factor here is the decided advantage N.E. has in the return game.

I'm not going to be a homer and predict a winner,
however given the reasons,above,and if turnovers are equal,I would expect the winning spread to be
8 to 15 points,with the final score to be 45-34.

I say this because I expect BOTH offenses to play at their peak efficiency,on a fast track,with very few mistakes.They're both just great teams and I think they will be trading haymakers all the way.

It's going to be great to watch.

 

[Willie55]

Good post Ryan although I think you got the score wrong.

What is the story with Addai's shoulder? How bad is it?

 

[The Gr8est]

Your analysis pales when compared to the national media Ryan. Not enough "Peyton is due", "everyone wants to see Peyton get a ring", or "still, my gut feeling is Indy".

There is no room for reasoned football analysis this week!

 

[fgssand]

Good luck Ryan.......but, better luck next year (assuming we are not there again).

 

[Ring 6]

I figured someone would notice that.

I AM banking on the Colts shutting down NE in the redzone and forcing a fumble or two by Dillon/Maroney. These stupid previews I do are just a bunch of hunches after watching way too much football.

I think your mistake is predicting the Colts will own the red zone. You have the Colts scoring 4 TD and 1 FG and the Pats 2 TDs and 3 FGs.
The Patriot defenseive play in the red zone this year has been dominant, and the offense has been very good, especially vs teams that dont defned the run well.
I think if its an 'otherwise even' game and come down to red zone play, the Patriots should win by a conmfortable margin.

Your stats indicate very good days by both QBs, (better by Brady) and the Patritos running well, but the Colts not. I would be thrilled with those numbers, because they show me a comfortable Pat win. (As far as Manning's numbers, if he puts up those kind of numbers, I expect them to be between the 20s and won't end up in 4 TDs. He'll need to throw for 350+ IMO to get his team in the end zone 4 times, unless points are socred off short fields from turnovers of course)

 

[PATSNUTme]

Good write up Ryan. However the flaw is that you say the Colts will stop the Patriots in the red zone and limit them to FG's. There is no history of that, in fact it's just the opposite.

I think that you were using your head when you did your match ups but you went with your heart when you reached your final conclusions. Hoping that Dillon/Maroney fumbles 2 times is really wishful thinking with your heart.

 

[DaBruinz]

Ryan -

As others have said, this is a pretty good review. However, I think that a bigger match-up will be the Pats D-line versus the dinged-up Colts O-line.

Will Diem's Shoulder stand up to the punishment from dealing with Seymour? Will Lilja's knee hold up against Warren and Wilfork?

If Diem or Lilja falter and the Pats get to Manning, life will be a lot more hectic.

The other thing that I have to agree with my fellow Pats fans is that its more likely that the Colts are held out of the Red Zone by the Pats defense than the Pats are held out of the Red Zone by the Colts defense.

I'm not going to predict a score, other than I think you can figure out who I am rooting for.

 

[patsox23]

I figured someone would notice that.

I AM banking on the Colts shutting down NE in the redzone and forcing a fumble or two by Dillon/Maroney. These stupid previews I do are just a bunch of hunches after watching way too much football.

I think it's a weird thing to bank on, Ryan. Sure it could happen, but the Patriots are really good in the red area, and their D is really good in defending the red area.

 

[Patriot Missile]

Good work Ryan. That is as objective as it's going to get from a Colt's fans. Truthfully there is alot of if's in this game for both teams. And I can see how either team's fans can find truth's to their beliefs. Both teams are playing well and coming off of convincing wins.

My view is the Colts and Pats have their strengths and weaknesses and whoever exploits them will win. Boring and simple but very factual. The Colts deep and medium passing attack is always a threat no matter what defense their playing. All it takes is one miscue or bad tackle and Harrison,Wayne or Clark can go the distance.

Addai has matured beyond his years during the end stretch and into the playoffs. The one thing that scares me about him is him catching screens out of the backfield. If anyone has watched our last 2 playoff games you will notice teams have been doing this quite a bit with success. However don't make it predictable because Colvin will catch on sooner rather than later. Just ask Pennington or Rivers about that.

I'm not sold on the Colts defense yet. Why? The Colt's havent played the Patriots. That's why. If they can shut down our powerful running and crisp passing game and win,then I will tip my cap.

I wish the game was here already because there are alot of uncertainties that need to be ansered and I'm tired of pondering them. We both know simple logic dictates whoever executes better and turns the ball over less will win the game. No stats or previous games will tell the true story better then their play on the field on Sunday.

Good post Ryan, but it will be a cold day in Hell when I wish you luck.

 

[Terry Glenn is a cowgirl]

All that matters is the game.

Stats are sort of like stocks.

Interesting past performance... but not 100% guaranteed going into the future.

 

[Patriotic Fervor]

I figured someone would notice that.

I AM banking on the Colts shutting down NE in the redzone and forcing a fumble or two by Dillon/Maroney. These stupid previews I do are just a bunch of hunches after watching way too much football.

Ain't no such thing, the opinion of the wife notwithstanding!

 

[spacecrime]

Alot has been said about Manning having a horrible post-season thus far but he's done enough to get the Colts to the AFCCG. He's winning ugly but apparently that's not allowed anywhere but NE.

Stop whining. People said Manning had two bad games and he did. People said Brady had a horrible game and he did. You sound worse than Tomlinson.

People aren't picking on Manning any more than they were picking on Brady. They are merely observing what happened.

Odds are the Manning will not falter three games in a row, and odds are that the Colts D will not be good three games in a row. If both those things happen, you will lose.

If you are lucky, the D will have one more good game and Manning will revert to form. If so, you will likely win. Actually, if the D has one more good game you could win even if Manning does tank another one. If you would stop crying about people observing that Manning had two bad games, you would realize that the Colts are better off with a great D and a mediocre Manning.

But if your D returns to its normal form, you are doomed no matter how Manning plays.

 

[ironwasp]

It's an entirely plausible scenario Ryan, and good analysis. I'm going to have to agree to disagree this time around. But good post, you're an asset to this board.

Enjoy the game.

 

[SVN]

But if your D returns to its normal form, you are doomed no matter how Manning plays.

I have to disagree.
they won 12 games with that D and solely on manning's play. if the colts get ahead , that d becomes more effective. The number of rushing yards given then becomes immaterial so we cant fall behind much .