How big does Mike Rodak think the Patriots' roster will be?

[Fencer]

Mike Rodak has a long series going about bubble players in the ESPN blog. He assigns a probability to each one of making the roster.

I haven't done the arithmetic, but my guess is that if one were to add up all the probabilities, one would get a total much higher than the number of his "bubble" players who will actually make the team.

Maybe I'm wrong, and he's actually sanity-checking his arithmetic. But I'm dubious ...

 

[BradyManny]

This is the deadest part of the offseason and Rodak has been churning out solid stuff on a daily basis b/c of that piece. Just enjoy it for what it's worth!

My brain just hurts trying to think of trying to add those up - and I don't think it matters. I think all of his %s are about spot on how I would be feeling.

 

[Fencer]

I'm the kind of guy who tweets reporters about typos in their blog posts, even in good posts.

Or especially in good posts, as those are the ones I'm most likely to actually read.

Mathematical sloppiness is even more insidious.

 

[BradyManny]

I'm the kind of guy who tweets reporters about typos in their blog posts, even in good posts.

Or especially in good posts, as those are the ones I'm most likely to actually read.

Mathematical sloppiness is even more insidious.

LOL. Well, I wish I could help you...but math was never my strong suit...I guess it comes down to how many players he considers a lock and then work from there. But if I had to guess, he's ballparking it.

 

[Rob0729]

Mike Rodak has a long series going about bubble players in the ESPN blog. He assigns a probability to each one of making the roster.

I haven't done the arithmetic, but my guess is that if one were to add up all the probabilities, one would get a total much higher than the number of his "bubble" players who will actually make the team.

Maybe I'm wrong, and he's actually sanity-checking his arithmetic. But I'm dubious ...

Unless he gave every player an 100% chance of making the team, there is no way the numbers add up to that more players make the team. If you have a 99% chance of making the team, you still have a chance of getting cut.

Rodak basically did each player's chances in a bubble. He looked at the the chances of each player based on how he stacks up against other players at his position not against the entire 53 man roster and whether the Pats would say keep an extra CB or o-lineman.

 

[Joker]

and there you have it folks...ANOTHER cherished Rodak moment...HERE at Patsfans.com ...the home of the obscure outlier

 

[Kontradiction]

He put Dennard's chances of making the roster at 45% stating that stronger special teams players such as Cole or Williams may push him out. I like Rodak, but I can't see that happening.

 

[BradyManny]

He put Dennard's chances of making the roster at 45% stating that stronger special teams players such as Cole or Williams may push him out. I like Rodak, but I can't see that happening.

I will flip out if special teamers are on the field for us on defense in the playoffs next year. I do not need to see a Tracy White, Eric Alexander type out there.

I feel like beat guys - and Reiss started it - overcompensate on the premium placed on special team play. Sure, it's important (the Giants' punter basically won them the Super Bowl), but the potential value over replacement along the ST unit is not nearly what it is on defense.

 

[Kontradiction]

I will flip out if special teamers are on the field for us on defense in the playoffs next year. I do not need to see a Tracy White, Eric Alexander type out there.

I feel like beat guys - and Reiss started it - overcompensate on the premium placed on special team play. Sure, it's important (the Giants' punter basically won them the Super Bowl), but the potential value over replacement along the ST unit is not nearly what it is on defense.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't Tracy White the guy that ultimately gave up the game winning TD to Ballard against the Giants in the regular season as well?

 

[WhiZa]

He put Dennard's chances of making the roster at 45% stating that stronger special teams players such as Cole or Williams may push him out. I like Rodak, but I can't see that happening.

Do you think Dennard will just out play them? Or are the Patriots worried that some other team will sign him if he's on the PS?

 

[pdangle]

I noticed that as well. But hey, I figured he was a reporter not a calculator. I'd guess that his percentages are probably 2x higher than actual. At least they seem consistent.

 

[jmt57]

Since nobody else wants to look it up I will.

Bubble watch - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

CB: Dennard 45%; Moore 80%; Allen 45%; Cole 50%

S: Ihedigbo 65%; Ebner 65%; Brown 35%; Barrett 45%

LB: Carpenter 75%; Koutouvides 45%; White 70%; Tarpinian 65%

DE: Scott 75%; Cunningham 35%

DL: Warren 55%; Pryor 75%; Forston 20%; Brace 50%

OL: Gallery 75%; McDonald 55%; Kopa 20%; Thomas 30%

TE:

WR: Davis 10%; Stallworth 50%; Ebert 15%

FB/RB: Fiammetta 25%; Addai 80%; Larsen 70%


If my math is correct I have a total of 1175%, or about 12 players from that group of 28 making the roster. The eleven with Rodak's best chances of surviving are Moore, Addai, Gallery, Pryor, Scott, Carpenter, Larsen, White, Ihedigbo, Ebner, and Tarpinian, with either Warren or McDonald being the 12th.

 

[Kontradiction]

Do you think Dennard will just out play them? Or are the Patriots worried that some other team will sign him if he's on the PS?

I'm not sure what Dennard will do. I have high hopes for him, but I haven't seen him in a Pats uniform going up against fellow professionals. However, I'd hope that he wouldn't be let go if he showed superior skills to either Williams or Cole on the defensive side of the ball because one or both looked better on the special teams units.

 

[BradyManny]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't Tracy White the guy that ultimately gave up the game winning TD to Ballard against the Giants in the regular season as well?

Yup. That's how I remember it. Not to mention Sergio Brown being on the field a few players earlier for the brutal pass interference to set it up.

And, of course, we'd have been playing a different opponent in the Super Bowl had that not happened...:bricks:

Let's just pray that the depth I think we should have this year materializes, and we can keep STers on ST.

 

[English Patriot]

I'm going to say this now so my stance is out in the open: we'd be STUPID to cut Dennard, too talented.

 

[WhiZa]

I'm not sure what Dennard will do. I have high hopes for him, but I haven't seen him in a Pats uniform going up against fellow professionals. However, I'd hope that he wouldn't be let go if he showed superior skills to either Williams or Cole on the defensive side of the ball because one or both looked better on the special teams units.

You're right that's what it's going to come down to. I think we have enough talent on ST to take a hit there if it will help our pass defense.

 

[WhiZa]

I'm going to say this now so my stance is out in the open: we'd be STUPID to cut Dennard, too talented.

There is a reason he was taken in the 7th round. He could very well get lazy and not showcase that talent in camp. Obviously we all hope he reaches his potential.

 

[Fencer]

Unless he gave every player an 100% chance of making the team, there is no way the numbers add up to that more players make the team. If you have a 99% chance of making the team, you still have a chance of getting cut.

Rodak basically did each player's chances in a bubble. He looked at the the chances of each player based on how he stacks up against other players at his position not against the entire 53 man roster and whether the Pats would say keep an extra CB or o-lineman.

What you just wrote makes extremely little mathematical sense.

 

[signbabybrady]

Since nobody else wants to look it up I will.

Bubble watch - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

CB: Dennard 45%; Moore 80%; Allen 45%; Cole 50%

S: Ihedigbo 65%; Ebner 65%; Brown 35%; Barrett 45%

LB: Carpenter 75%; Koutouvides 45%; White 70%; Tarpinian 65%

DE: Scott 75%; Cunningham 35%

DL: Warren 55%; Pryor 75%; Forston 20%; Brace 50%

OL: Gallery 75%; McDonald 55%; Kopa 20%; Thomas 30%

TE:

WR: Davis 10%; Stallworth 50%; Ebert 15%

FB/RB: Fiammetta 25%; Addai 80%; Larsen 70%


If my math is correct I have a total of 1175%, or about 12 players from that group of 28 making the roster. The eleven with Rodak's best chances of surviving are Moore, Addai, Gallery, Pryor, Scott, Carpenter, Larsen, White, Ihedigbo, Ebner, and Tarpinian, with either Warren or McDonald being the 12th.

Looking at this it does not seem as though those numbers are in realty. looking at just CB as I just read his breakdown on Dennard. He basically said Arrington, McCourty, and Dowling are locks and that it is a 5 person postion which would leave 2 open spots or 200% and his numbers add up to 220%. I guess you could equate the added percentage with the possibilty they could take a roster spot from another position.

 

[mgteich]

Many posters are much more mathmatically challenged as Rodak. BTW, I think that Rodak comes close to adding up.

What you just wrote makes extremely little mathematical sense.