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It Looks Like No Long term Deal between Pats and Welker


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You can't pay him like a #1 receiver if he's not! I like WW, but I don't think he's the type of player that will change a team completely. He is good at what he does, but he can be replaced in the offense. We saw him get shut down when teams flooded the middle of the field. Without a legit deep threat he struggles to get open sometimes. Hopefully something fair will get worked out eventually though !

Huh? The Patriot passing game runs through Welker.
How can you say he is not a #1 if you think teams design defenses just to shut him down? And they can't.
 
as productive as he's been, I simply don't see giving him a contract as one of the better #1 WR's in the league. I think the pats would rather see him as a 85-90 catch guy moving forward. at 30, I don't believe his body can withstand 2-3 more seasons like the one he just had. with both lloyd and gaffney here, I don't think welker will see much more than that anyway.

based on that, the value for the pats is to have him play out this year under the tag. they have plenty of cap space, so they don't need to bring his number down.

just as with other players, the pats will go in another direction rather than break the bank for a non-franchise guy. and welker can afford to be patient. if he has another good year, he will get the deal he would have gotten this year, plus he will have gotten the 2012 tag $$....he jet needs to hope he doesn't get hurt

There is a big difference between describing how he has played and predicting the impact of aging. I disagree that the Patriots are trying to find a way to limit Welker. If he keeps getting open, he keeps getting the ball.
To say he 'isnt a #1 WR' is pretty naive. To say you cannot pay him like he will be at 34 is insightful. Mixing up the 2 does nothing but confuse the point.
 
Why do I have a feeling that Welker might be traded? I think that the Patriots will try and get something for him than letting him play and then walking next season! Unless Welker budges and takes less, I could see him gone by this season through a trade!
 
Why do I have a feeling that Welker might be traded? I think that the Patriots will try and get something for him than letting him play and then walking next season! Unless Welker budges and takes less, I could see him gone by this season through a trade!

Wouldn't make much sense to go out and sign a bunch of WRs with the end result being a weak WR corps.
 
If financially there had to be a choice in the future between a 32 year old Welker and a 24 year old Hernandez, the answer is obvious.
 
There is a big difference between describing how he has played and predicting the impact of aging. I disagree that the Patriots are trying to find a way to limit Welker. If he keeps getting open, he keeps getting the ball.
To say he 'isnt a #1 WR' is pretty naive. To say you cannot pay him like he will be at 34 is insightful. Mixing up the 2 does nothing but confuse the point.

maybe it confuses you....

the pats FOUND a way to limit welker......actually more than one.......they're called lloyd and gaffney....over 1900 yards between em last year. these guys are going to get their yards, and they're going to come from somewhere .... an impact on welkers numbers is the likely first place many of these yards are going to come from
 
If financially there had to be a choice in the future between a 32 year old Welker and a 24 year old Hernandez, the answer is obvious.

That is a completely different discussion- but linked.
 
Who told you what he wants? If he were Calvin Johnson or Andre Johnson he'd be asking for $12-15Myr. So I think he grasps the distinction even though fans don't appear to. There is a difference in wanting to be paid for being the best at what you do and being paid for being the best in the league. Welker is the best slot WR in the game.
There's something to what you say, but part of the distinction is that Welker plays for a team that has 2 exceptional receiving TE's and partially because of it, maximizes the effectiveness of an excellent slot receiver. His YAC is also maximized by having perhaps the most accurate QB of his generation. Not catching balls in stride most of the time, like he would if he played for the Jets, will cut into those stats.

Mo, if Welker were 28 and in this position, I'd be on your side. Hey if Welker was 28 the deal would be already done. But he isn't. So while he HAS BEEN the top slot receiver in the game for the last few years, who is to say that he will continue to do so.

AND what is the price for being the top slot receiver in the game worth anyway. Is it $6MM/yr,. $8MM/yr or $10MM/yr???? I don't know.

Financially many ex-Patriots end up doing OK. While nothing may ever top or even equal playing here on an emotional level or even a production level, it's often easier to top being paid less than market for staying here. And while players generally prefer to play for a winning team and compete for championships, at the end of the day they almost all want to approach maximizing earnings in what is a limited window career.

While 10 years is long NFL career, these players while have 30-40 years of potential earnings after they hang them up. Giving up, say $6MM today, and reaping the benefits of retiring a beloved sports figure in this region is a good deal.....in the long run. In the end John Elway made a lot more money with the car dealerships he eventually sold than he ever made as a Bronco.

Welker is the kind of guy who probably would remain signable for this team after the season. Shame on them for opting to take advantage of that. Now they have to wimultaneously hope he doesn't get injured and continues to produce while secretly hoping they can somehow still spin that into less than more financially going forward. And they have to hope nobody else stumbles out of the gate or gets injured because if that happens Brady will be targeting the life out of his BFF.

This part of your post is vastly overly dramatic. First of all there is NOTHING the Pats have to be "ashamed" of. That money is important to them....or rather to the OTHER players who would be getting that money if the Pats don't have to give it to Welker. Are they any less deserving?

Why would they hope the doesn't get injured more, without the contract, than they would if they gave him something LT. Don't you have that backward?

Are you saying that Brady would sacrifice maximizing a play to go to Welker out of spite??? Really, MO???

Welker is in a tough spot for an over achiever. Has to be able to compartmentalize the future contract issue and continue to play with focused abandon as he has for 5 years here. I wouldn't want to be him or the team down the stretch if he's again putting up tremendous numbers because what he's increasingly risking will likely begin coming into sharper focus. And there won't be a thing either side can do about it. If I'm the team the last thing I want allow is for a situation to even subconsciously develop where Brady begins to worry about being on the delivering end of a play that ends or seriously threatens the remainder of his BFF's career. And I wouldn't want to be the teams contract negotiator going forward if something like that happens to that guy, the one Brady calls the heart and soul of this offense, because it will give a lot of his teamates contractual pause going forward.
Cry me a freakin' River, Mo. When are you taking this drama to Broadway? Have you sold the screen play yet? :rolleyes:

The Pats are paying Wes Welker $9.3MM to give them his best effort for the ENTIRE 2012 season. And the DAY that they felt that he wasn't giving his FULL effort because of a contract issue is the day they should cut his sorry ass. Its also the day Welker would be cutting his own throat financially, because NO team will pay big bucks to a guy who would quit on them the day he was unhappy with his contract. (well maybe the Jets ;) )

Like I have said many times before. I sincerely hope that Welker retires as a Patriot. However I'm not willing (nor are the Pats) to overpay him for that privilege just because he was underpaid in his his prime years. Those dollars are too valuable in respect to the rest of the roster.

There are no bad guys in this negotiation. Both sides are doing what they think is best for themselves, and that's the way it should be. Your claim that the Pats are screwing Welker in any sense has no merit, except as an emotional appeal.
 
Huh? The Patriot passing game runs through Welker.
How can you say he is not a #1 if you think teams design defenses just to shut him down? And they can't.

As good of a year WW had last season, when it comes down to playmaking (1st downs per play and TDs), I'd argue that the passing game now runs though Gronk.

In addition, I'd argue that teams do contain WW when it matters. Check out his post-season numbers. In 7 post-season games, hes never averaged more than 10 yds a catch or had a gain longer than 19 yards. Without a reliable deep threat, teams do clamp down on him.
 
As good of a year WW had last season, when it comes down to playmaking (1st downs per play and TDs), I'd argue that the passing game now runs though Gronk.

In addition, I'd argue that teams do contain WW when it matters. Check out his post-season numbers. In 7 post-season games, hes never averaged more than 10 yds a catch or had a gain longer than 19 yards. Without a reliable deep threat, teams do clamp down on him.

In his time with the Patriots, Welker has averaged

10.5
10.5
11.0
9.9
12.99

per catch. His job is not to rack up huge numbers in that department. He's never had fewer than 6 catches in any playoff game.
 
Huh? The Patriot passing game runs through Welker.
How can you say he is not a #1 if you think teams design defenses just to shut him down? And they can't.


Stevie Johnson is Buffalo's leading receiver so do you think he should be paid number one wide receiver money. He is simply the best that team has same as Wes he is simply the best wr we have had simply partly because all the other wr's we had were abysmal.True he is a good wr but his skills and value are not that of a true number one wr.
 
the question will be during the course of the upcoming season whether welker is worth more $$ than lloyd and gaffney combined
 
In his time with the Patriots, Welker has averaged

10.5
10.5
11.0
9.9
12.99

per catch. His job is not to rack up huge numbers in that department. He's never had fewer than 6 catches in any playoff game.

I'm not as big of a Welker fan as some, but even I can't understand using his YPC against him. YPC is a good measuring stick when you're evaluating players who count stretching the field as one of their strengths. In much the same way that you wouldn't devalue Randy Moss for only surpassing 100 catches twice in his career, nobody should hold Welker's YPC against him. That type of evaluation doesn't reflect his role on the team at all.
 
I'm not as big of a Welker fan as some, but even I can't understand using his YPC against him. YPC is a good measuring stick when you're evaluating players who count stretching the field as one of their strengths. In much the same way that you wouldn't devalue Randy Moss for only surpassing 100 catches twice in his career, nobody should hold Welker's YPC against him. That type of evaluation doesn't reflect his role on the team at all.


There is a high degree of correlation between explosion plays and scoring td's.Case in point Mario Manningham's catch against us. Thus players who give you this dimension are more valuable so Wes is clearly lacking in this thus its a black mark against him.
Low ypc lead to field goals and punting.
 
There is a high degree of correlation between explosion plays and scoring td's.Case in point Mario Manningham's catch against us. Thus players who give you this dimension are more valuable so Wes is clearly lacking in this thus its a black mark against him.
Low ypc lead to field goals and punting.

Does being tied with Roddy White and Calvin Johnson in 77 first downs leading the league also lead to field goals and punting?

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/receiving/sort/receivingFirstDowns
 
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I'm not as big of a Welker fan as some, but even I can't understand using his YPC against him. YPC is a good measuring stick when you're evaluating players who count stretching the field as one of their strengths. In much the same way that you wouldn't devalue Randy Moss for only surpassing 100 catches twice in his career, nobody should hold Welker's YPC against him. That type of evaluation doesn't reflect his role on the team at all.

When measuring WW's effectiveness, YPC, YAC and 1st down % are incredibly important. Touchdowns and 100yd games not so much. In 2010 his YPC was 9.9, his YAC was 5 and his 1st down % was 54%. Last year all those numbers were up and he had a monster year. My point to Deus was that in the playoffs, WW is not as prolific as he is in the regular season and his level of production is less. 1st downs, YAC, etc.

He is worth being paid $10m a year, sure but to dismiss YPC as not a valuable metric doesn't make sense.
 
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In his time with the Patriots, Welker has averaged

10.5
10.5
11.0
9.9
12.99

per catch. His job is not to rack up huge numbers in that department. He's never had fewer than 6 catches in any playoff game.

It's YAC, YPC and # of 1st downs that are WWs value to the team. Catches are an overrated stat unless production is the byproduct of the catch.
 
When measuring WW's effectiveness, YPC, YAC and 1st down % are incredibly important. Touchdowns and 100yd games not so much. In 2010 his YPC was 9.9, his YAC was 5 and his 1st down % was 54%. Last year all those numbers were up and he had a monster year. My point to Deus was that in the playoffs, WW is not as prolific as he is in the regular season and his level of production is less. 1st downs, YAC, etc.

He is worth being paid $10m a year, sure but to dismiss YPC as not a valuable metric doesn't make sense.

It's YAC, YPC and # of 1st downs that are WWs value to the team. Catches are an overrated stat unless production is the byproduct of the catch.

You wanted to claim that Welker was somehow shut down when he wasn't, and were willing to move the goalposts when your point was successfully refuted ....

Be better than that.
 
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It takes a couple of seasons to bring in a new guy and get on the same page as Brady and the offense

Which examples do you have in mind? Branch? Moss? Welker himself?
 
You wanted to claim that Welker was somehow shut down when he wasn't, and were willing to move the goalposts when your point was successfully refuted ....

Be better than that.

You are twisting my words, Deus. I said teams contain WW in the playoffs- not shut down. Moss gets shut down.

It's a statistical fact that WWs #s go down in the playoffs. Does he still have value? Of course. Nothing was refuted. Still waiting.....
 
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