It Looks Like No Long term Deal between Pats and Welker

[PatsBoy12]

As many predicted, it looks as though there will be no deal by the deadline . . .

Report: Welker, Pats won't have agreement by deadline

Of course this is speculation still, but . . .

 

[zipster9]

As many predicted, it looks as though there will be no deal by the deadline . . .

Report: Welker, Pats won't have agreement by deadline

Of course this is speculation still, but . . .

Sounds like this is probably Welker's last year as a Patriot. Welker wants about 9-9.5m/yr for 3yrs. Guaranteed.

Frankly, Welker is not worth that much. He is NO CalvinJohnson or AndreJohnson. Welker is a slot receiver.

Funny, lots of Patriots leave expecting exactly same production with new teams, dont pan out. Only a very few ex-Patriots end up doing ok later on
(aka: Seymour).

 

[Observer]

Welker will do alright too. Plus he will make more money. Good for him.

 

[naF staP]

Funny, lots of Patriots leave expecting exactly same production with new teams, dont pan out. Only a very few ex-Patriots end up doing ok later on
(aka: Seymour).

It works both ways. The Patriots have let people walk thinking they can find a good replacement and they don't. Who can the Patriots plug in to play the slot spot as effective as Welker? There is nobody on the team right now that can. Asking Brady to break in a new guy, to have the same chemistry with someone new at the tail end of his career would be crazy. It takes a couple of seasons to bring in a new guy and get on the same page as Brady and the offense....and time is running out. The slot position is a very big role for Brady and the offense. Not going to find someone who can come in and play it like Welker has. In the end it will be one of those bad decisions to let Welker walk, it will end up kicking the Patriots in the butt.

Welker proved his worth, played out his team friendly, under paid contract of 5 years, 18 million. Last season was his time to prove he deserves a good contract and he proved that. He showed no signs of slowing down, he had a remarkable season, it's time to pay the man. He is key to this offense.

 

[MrTibbs]

This is Welkers last year as a Patriot. This will be his "Good-Bye" campaign.

 

[javajunky]

Welker's market value wont be as big as he believes next year. I say there is a good chance he stays a Patriot once he tests it.

 

[Calciumee]

Weren't the Saints and Brees no where near being done?

Could this be why Ebert was drafted? And maybe Edelman will get his chance!

 

[Deus Irae]

Sounds like this is probably Welker's last year as a Patriot. Welker wants about 9-9.5m/yr for 3yrs. Guaranteed.

Frankly, Welker is not worth that much. He is NO CalvinJohnson or AndreJohnson. Welker is a slot receiver.

Funny, lots of Patriots leave expecting exactly same production with new teams, dont pan out. Only a very few ex-Patriots end up doing ok later on
(aka: Seymour).

Weak sauce, particularly since 9-9.5 isn't what the Calvin is getting.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Weren't the Saints and Brees no where near being done?

Could this be why Ebert was drafted? And maybe Edelman will get his chance!

FWIW:

Branch: 40 = 4.47, 3-cone = 6.71, shuttle = 3.76
Welkah: 40 = 4.61, 3-cone = 7.09, shuttle = 4.09
Ebert: 40 = 4.38, 3-cone = 6.70, shuttle = 4.15

I wouldn't count out the possibility of Ebert taking over for Branch this year if he can develop chemistry with TFB.

 

[patfanken]

Of course all this speculation is a full year away, but I'd love to see what Edelman can do getting regular snaps in the slot position, even if its only to end the all the smack between the pro and anti Edelman factions once and for all.

As to other speculation, I'd love to know exactly what Welker is demanding at this point. What I fail to understand is why players don't think about the positive effect of retiring as a Patriot. The 1-2MM/yr that he wouldn't get now if he signs for the Pats want would be more than made up over the next decade or two in "good will" deals and jobs he could have long after he retires. This is especially true given that that regardless of what deal he signs, there wouldn't be an iota of a drop in his lifestyle if he signed what the Pats are offering compared to what he wants....whatever that is.

But that's just me. I'm comfortable with Welker playing this season under the franchise tag. I also think that there is at least a 50-50 chance that he'll be back next year. Quite frankly I just don't see a huge market for a small 32 year old slot receiver with all the wear and tear on him at least not at the 8-10MM/yr level. Though there would be a lot of interest at the 5-6MM/yr level, but he can get that HERE, and have Brady as well

We shall see.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Certainly hope WW and the Pats work out a deal that is equitable for both sides.

There is something out Ebert that is really interesting...

 

[naF staP]

Welker's market value wont be as big as he believes next year. I say there is a good chance he stays a Patriot once he tests it.

Have we not learned in sports, even the NFL that there is always a team out there willing to pay big money, to the extent of even over paying for a player.

patfanken...I'd love to see what Edelman can do getting regular snaps in the slot position

C'mon, seriously? That's like putting Ocho in to do what Moss did. The only person I can see to come in that might have a chance is Amendola but to get on the same page as Brady and Wes seem to always be on will take a couple years.... and that's too long.

 

[DaBruinz]

Sounds like this is probably Welker's last year as a Patriot. Welker wants about 9-9.5m/yr for 3yrs. Guaranteed.

Frankly, Welker is not worth that much. He is NO CalvinJohnson or AndreJohnson. Welker is a slot receiver.

Funny, lots of Patriots leave expecting exactly same production with new teams, dont pan out. Only a very few ex-Patriots end up doing ok later on
(aka: Seymour).

Welker is more than just a "slot receiver" and you do him and yourself a great injustice by saying it. Welker lines up all over the place. He lined up as the X,Y, and Z receiver. Yes, he does his best work over the middle, but he also draws double teams on a regular basis and STILL puts up 110+ receptions a year.

People thinking that Welker is only a product of the Patriots are ignoring what Welker did despite the 3 different QBs he had in Miami prior to his joining the Pats. If you think that Welker will magically become only a 50 reception guy because he won't have Brady, then you are kidding yourself. Welker will be a solid #2 receiver on most teams.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Sounds like this is probably Welker's last year as a Patriot. Welker wants about 9-9.5m/yr for 3yrs. Guaranteed.

Frankly, Welker is not worth that much. He is NO CalvinJohnson or AndreJohnson. Welker is a slot receiver.

Funny, lots of Patriots leave expecting exactly same production with new teams, dont pan out. Only a very few ex-Patriots end up doing ok later on
(aka: Seymour).

Who told you what he wants? If he were Calvin Johnson or Andre Johnson he'd be asking for $12-15Myr. So I think he grasps the distinction even though fans don't appear to. There is a difference in wanting to be paid for being the best at what you do and being paid for being the best in the league. Welker is the best slot WR in the game.

Financially many ex-Patriots end up doing OK. While nothing may ever top or even equal playing here on an emotional level or even a production level, it's often easier to top being paid less than market for staying here. And while players generally prefer to play for a winning team and compete for championships, at the end of the day they almost all want to approach maximizing earnings in what is a limited window career.

Welker is the kind of guy who probably would remain signable for this team after the season. Shame on them for opting to take advantage of that. Now they have to wimultaneously hope he doesn't get injured and continues to produce while secretly hoping they can somehow still spin that into less than more financially going forward. And they have to hope nobody else stumbles out of the gate or gets injured because if that happens Brady will be targeting the life out of his BFF.

Welker is in a tough spot for an over achiever. Has to be able to compartmentalize the future contract issue and continue to play with focused abandon as he has for 5 years here. I wouldn't want to be him or the team down the stretch if he's again putting up tremendous numbers because what he's increasingly risking will likely begin coming into sharper focus. And there won't be a thing either side can do about it. If I'm the team the last thing I want allow is for a situation to even subconsciously develop where Brady begins to worry about being on the delivering end of a play that ends or seriously threatens the remainder of his BFF's career. And I wouldn't want to be the teams contract negotiator going forward if something like that happens to that guy, the one Brady calls the heart and soul of this offense, because it will give a lot of his teamates contractual pause going forward.

 

[PatsGirl2011]

You can't pay him like a #1 receiver if he's not! I like WW, but I don't think he's the type of player that will change a team completely. He is good at what he does, but he can be replaced in the offense. We saw him get shut down when teams flooded the middle of the field. Without a legit deep threat he struggles to get open sometimes. Hopefully something fair will get worked out eventually though !

 

[ctpatsfan77]

You can't pay him like a #1 receiver if he's not! I like WW, but I don't think he's the type of player that will change a team completely. He is good at what he does, but he can be replaced in the offense. We saw him get shut down when teams flooded the middle of the field. Without a legit deep threat he struggles to get open sometimes. Hopefully something fair will get worked out eventually though !

Two things about this:

(1) Welker changes the way defenses play this offense. For example, Brady's 50th TD came because the Giants were desperate to prevent Welker from picking up the first down, so they double teamed him while leaving Moss in single coverage.

(2) Last season, after six weeks, Welker had more completions for first downs than any other player had receptions, period.

 

[Deus Irae]

You can't pay him like a #1 receiver if he's not!

He's been the team's WR1 since at least 2010. One could argue which year he overtook Moss for the role, but there's no question that he's been the WR1 since that final Moss season.[/QUOTE]

I like WW, but I don't think he's the type of player that will change a team completely.

That would make more sense if Welker hadn't already changed the offense pretty much completely.

He is good at what he does, but he can be replaced in the offense.

Welker's done what no receiver in the history of the NFL has ever done. I'm sure the Patriots can just go out and find his replacement at the local Walmart.

We saw him get shut down when teams flooded the middle of the field. Without a legit deep threat he struggles to get open sometimes. Hopefully something fair will get worked out eventually though !

Please list all the WRs in history who could not be shut down. I think you'll find that the number of such players is zero. Jerry Rice once had an 1800 yard season, yet he was held to 2 for 21 and 5 for 32 in games that year.

 

[DaBruinz]

You can't pay him like a #1 receiver if he's not! I like WW, but I don't think he's the type of player that will change a team completely. He is good at what he does, but he can be replaced in the offense. We saw him get shut down when teams flooded the middle of the field. Without a legit deep threat he struggles to get open sometimes. Hopefully something fair will get worked out eventually though !

Calvin Johnson gets "shutdown" also. In fact, he was shut down 4 games last year.

Welker was shut down at times, but the Pats still won. That's what a TEAM is all about. Having others step up when some people get shut down.

People have this erroneous idea of what a #1 receiver is and what Welker is. Welker is more than just a slot receiver. He's lined up at the X,Y, and Z receiver positions. And he's caught passes out of each one.

Welker is this team's #1 receiver. Thinking otherwise is a fallacy.

 

[Boomer B]

I wish we could magically go back and erase the Ocho signing, give the $6 mil they wasted on him to Welker, and get him signed for the next 3 seasons.

There has to be a compromise in this situation. Welker played for a friendly deal for 5 years. He could of held out but he didn't. Kraft should take this into account. If Welkers producing 100+ receptions every year for $3.5 mil, and you pay Ocho $6 mil for not learning the playbook, then maybe management can give a bit more then they want on a new deal. Same goes for Welker. Lower the demands a bit and get this thing done.

3 yrs - $26 mil - $20 mil guaranteed = fair deal

 

[IllegalContact]

as productive as he's been, I simply don't see giving him a contract as one of the better #1 WR's in the league. I think the pats would rather see him as a 85-90 catch guy moving forward. at 30, I don't believe his body can withstand 2-3 more seasons like the one he just had. with both lloyd and gaffney here, I don't think welker will see much more than that anyway.

based on that, the value for the pats is to have him play out this year under the tag. they have plenty of cap space, so they don't need to bring his number down.

just as with other players, the pats will go in another direction rather than break the bank for a non-franchise guy. and welker can afford to be patient. if he has another good year, he will get the deal he would have gotten this year, plus he will have gotten the 2012 tag $$....he jet needs to hope he doesn't get hurt