Bedard: Pats and Welker $6 mill apart

[DaBruinz]

Anybody have any idea what WW would be looking at in the open market?

KC would be the logical choice. Something says MC would give a kidney for WW. Maybe Atlanta?

There are a lot of teams that would love to add Welker if he was on the open market. . The two you mentioned plus Tampa, Arizona, San Diego, Washington, Seattle, New Orleans, the Jets, The Phins, Ravens, The Bears, the Lions, Vikings, and Cowboys. Just to name a few.

 

[BradyManny]

Catch Radius? Seriously sounds like someone has been playing too much Madden. The idea that Welker's value is decreased because of his intelligence makes me laugh.

Or it sounds like someone who consistently offers up solid football insight, in particular to the wide receiver position - as Metaphors has been doing for a while...

As for Welker's reliance on high football IQ limiting his market - the point is that he needs to find a QB with compatible intelligence to maximize his worth. It's a fair point. But I just don't know if it diminishes his value since most team's probably overestimate their QB's intelligence as it is.

 

[Deus Irae]

Or it sounds like someone who consistently offers up solid football insight, in particular to the wide receiver position - as Metaphors has been doing for a while...

As for Welker's reliance on high football IQ limiting his market - the point is that he needs to find a QB with compatible intelligence to maximize his worth. It's a fair point. But I just don't know if it diminishes his value since most team's probably overestimate their QB's intelligence as it is.

Both points were specious, at best, and completely wrong at worst. If the Patriots cut loose of Welker, all 31 other teams in the league would be interested in Welker, and his value would be sky high.

 

[BradyManny]

Welker's seen how the Patriots treat their top players at contract time, yet he was still stupid enough to sign his tender. Now, unfortunately for him, he's reaping the the rewards for that decision. All the nonsense by people trying to excuse the Patriots is just that, and it's kind of pathetic, really.

I have absolutely no issue with Welker wanting to get top dollar (which frankly, it doesn't even seem like that is his priority as much as being compensated pretty fairly). I can't fathom anyone taking issue with Welker's stance thus far (I'm sure they're on here, but I've chosen to ignore them).

He's done everything the Patriots asked of him and then some - and he has not been adequately compensated at any point in his career thus far, though in the Pats defense, the contract they signed him to upon trading for him was built with increased production in mind - they just had no idea just how much more productive he'd be here.

On the other hand, how can you have issue with the Patriots setting a value on him that doesn't necessarily align with what the open market dictates? The WR market has been grossly inflated and the Patriots are not obligated to reward Welker beyond what they see fit, and they are within their rights to use the Franchise Tag as a tool to control him for another year.

It sucks for Wes, but the Patriots obligation to field the best team possible outweighs everything else. This is one negotiation where it's easy to see both sides, IMO.

 

[DaBruinz]

Wes asking for 21M guaranteed really isn't a big deal since that is almost what he'd get by being franchised next year. (the 9.5 from this year and the 11.4 from next year). I think the sticking point continues to be the length.

I think if the Pats offers 3year/27 million with 20.5 guaranteed and a team option at 9.5 million, all would be happy.

 

[BradyManny]

If the Patriots cut loose of Welker, all 31 other teams in the league would be interested in Welker, and his value would be sky high.

I agree completely. But I think Metaphors analysis was still insightful analysis on Welker's game. It's just that it doesn't have practical repercussions, b/c as you say, every other team would line up whether they thought they had a Brady-like QB or not.

 

[Deus Irae]

I agree completely. But I think Metaphors analysis was still insightful analysis on Welker's game.

Yeah, it wasn't. It really, really wasn't. It was one of the weakest things he's ever posted.

It's just that it doesn't have practical repercussions, b/c as you say, every other team would line up whether they thought they had a Brady-like QB or not.

It doesn't have any repercussions, because it was nonsensical. Metaphors has made bad posts before, as we all have, but that may be the worst thing he's ever written.

 

[TruthSeeker]

It seems to me that Welker's expectations are quite reasonable. If Welker has an average (for him) year next year and comes through without a serious injury, is there anyone who doesn't think the Patriots won't franchise him again? In which case the Patriots will have paid him as much guaranteed money as he is asking.

 

[signbabybrady]

Welker's seen how the Patriots treat their top players at contract time, yet he was still stupid enough to sign his tender. Now, unfortunately for him, he's reaping the the rewards for that decision. All the nonsense by people trying to excuse the Patriots is just that, and it's kind of pathetic, really.

I am not even sure what kind of point you are trying to make?

Why exactly is Welker stupid for signing his tender and guarenteeing 9 mil?

He gave up some leverage sure but not really much if you consider he may not have wanted to be shipped off like Branch as an example using the Patriots treatment of top players at contract time. If his goal was just to make absolutely top dollar as if he was open market then maybe it wasn't the brightest move to sign the tender but if his goal is to maximize his total dollars while either staying here or eventually reaching FAency to make his own choice on where to play next then it was actually a no brainer to sign the tender as it gives him top dollar this year and a chance to reup with us or likely hit FAency next offseason.

 

[Deus Irae]

I am not even sure what kind of point you are trying to make?

Why exactly is Welker stupid for signing his tender and guarenteeing 9 mil?

He gave up some leverage sure but not really much if you consider he may not have wanted to be shipped off like Branch as an example using the Patriots treatment of top players at contract time. If his goal was just to make absolutely top dollar as if he was open market then maybe it wasn't the brightest move to sign the tender but if his goal is to maximize his total dollars while either staying here or eventually reaching FAency to make his own choice on where to play next then it was actually a no brainer to sign the tender as it gives him top dollar this year and a chance to reup with us or likely hit FAency next offseason.

Welker gave up all his leverage.

 

[signbabybrady]

It seems to me that Welker's expectations are quite reasonable. If Welker has an average (for him) year next year and comes through without a serious injury, is there anyone who doesn't think the Patriots won't franchise him again? In which case the Patriots will have paid him as much guaranteed money as he is asking.

I think there is a very good chance that they would not franchise him next year it would be at 11-12 mil and he will be another year older still looking for a long term deal. If Lloyd has a great year it might make it easier to handle and move on with Lloyd, Gronk, Hernadez as still being a very good trio. Wouldnt be my choice but I dont balance the books.

 

[signbabybrady]

Welker gave up all his leverage.

He did give up some leverage especially short term. But I would argue his last deal that locked him at 5 years and low money was much dumber than signing a 1 year 9 mil dollar deal. Again if his goal was to get 4 or 5 year deal at top money right now then it was dumb he could have forced the Pats to trade him to some team that would give it to him. But then he is stuck there and he may not be able to chose where there is. This way he stays here for 9 mil and can continue negotiating.

 

[Deus Irae]

He did give up some leverage especially short term. But I would argue his last deal that locked him at 5 years and low money was much dumber than signing a 1 year 9 mil dollar deal.

That may well be, but it wasn't anything being discussed.

Again if his goal was to get 4 or 5 year deal at top money right now then it was dumb he could have forced the Pats to trade him to some team that would give it to him. But then he is stuck there and he may not be able to chose where there is. This way he stays here for 9 mil and can continue negotiating.

The Patriots couldn't have traded Welker, since Welker wasn't under contract. The Patriots had 3 choices: wait for Welker to sign the tender and then own his ass (this is what they chose), agree to terms, or cut Welker loose by withdrawing the offer and allowing Welker to become a UFA.

 

[Jack Handy]

Doesn't it seem like if they do not get a long term deal done then it will be necessary to use the fran tag again next year if the Pats want to keep him on the roster. Next years tag would cost 11 million.

 

[signbabybrady]

That may well be, but it wasn't anything being discussed.

I know it wasnt being discussed but I brought it up to add context to signing a one year deal at high money vs signing a crappy longterm deal. Point being you say he is stupid for signing the tender but if his only option was the tender, a crappy long term deal, or sit out does that not add context?

The Patriots couldn't have traded Welker, since Welker wasn't under contract. The Patriots had 3 choices: wait for Welker to sign the tender and then own his ass (this is what they chose), agree to terms, or cut Welker loose by withdrawing the offer and allowing Welker to become a UFA.

Branch had not signed his tender until the before his trade so not sure why that would be any different here. Had Welker not signed he could have kept some leverage toward a long term deal but if his goal is to remain a Patriot for this deal then it really matters less wether he signs the tender or not as I see the good faith move showing he wants to be here as valueble as the leverage he gave up.

Look I am throwing out some variables and making assumtpions based on some knowledge we have. There is a lot that goes into the deal and without knowing the true wants needs of both partied and the realistic ability for each party to get what they want it is rediculous for you to call Welker stupid for signing the tender. If you figure all Wes wants to is make the top dollar he can and do it for the Patriots and if he has no intentions on holding out then the tender actually is pretty asinine as not signing it only allows him to hold out or some leverage in a trading partner.

 

[Deus Irae]

I know it wasnt being discussed but I brought it up to add context to signing a one year deal at high money vs signing a crappy longterm deal. Point being you say he is stupid for signing the tender but if his only option was the tender, a crappy long term deal, or sit out does that not add context?

It adds no context at all.

Branch had not signed his tender until the before his trade so not sure why that would be any different here. Had Welker not signed he could have kept some leverage toward a long term deal but if his goal is to remain a Patriot for this deal then it really matters less wether he signs the tender or not as I see the good faith move showing he wants to be here as valueble as the leverage he gave up.

Branch was under contract.

Look I am throwing out some variables and making assumtpions based on some knowledge we have. There is a lot that goes into the deal and without knowing the true wants needs of both partied and the realistic ability for each party to get what they want it is rediculous for you to call Welker stupid for signing the tender. If you figure all Wes wants to is make the top dollar he can and do it for the Patriots and if he has no intentions on holding out then the tender actually is pretty asinine as not signing it only allows him to hold out or some leverage in a trading partner.

You're not adding anything. Your throwing out a lot of things that are either irrelevant or wrong, which is not the same thing.

And Welker was stupid for signing the tender.

 

[Ivan]

Though the article doesn't discuss contract length, guaranteeing him $21 mill seems excessive considering his age and his role going forward.
Two points:
1) His 2011 stats were inflated due to the lock out/lack of defense in the league when the season opened last year. In the month of September, QBs were dialing up 300-500 yd games at will. During the first quarter of 2011, Welker amassed 40% of his yardage stats and 5 of his 9 TDs. No question Wes had a great back half of the season as well....but this leads me to point #2
2) In 2011, #2 WR Branch averaged 3.3 catches/game. #3 WR Ochocinco averaged 1 catch/game. With Lloyd on the field and competent alternatives in the bullpen (Gafney, Branch), not to mention a new OC that loves targeting WRs, not a chance in hell Welker repeats his 2011 numbers. The nonWelker WR receptions could increase 75%.

Logic dictates points #1 and #2. And my gutt tells me that McDaniels will incorporate more screen and RB pass plays as well. I also suspect BB will seek to regain the time of possession advantage by utilizing his young RBs and establishing a more consistent running game.
Bottom line. Brady has more targets and a more reliable cast to lean on. And an evolving team philosophy may balance out the offense as well. I just don't see Welker repeating his 2011 numbers...so let them revisit his contract next offseason when he is a year older with more down to Earth stats.
And lets not forget....The little guy was tackled 120 times last year....and concussions can take a player off the field for indefinite periods of time.

As complete garbage goes this is as thorough as it gets. Same BS we heard before last season and we all saw how that turned out.

They should go get Chad Jackson, he's bigger and faster than Welker, and he's available for much less money. I'll bet if they gave him a chance Brady would end up calling him "the best player on our team....."

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

VIDEOFW Live Florio talks to Curran

http://hqplayer.nbcsports.com/Player.html?PID=86]NBC Sports

Not much else going on,so here is today's video with Florio & Curran and reports on the Pats with the Welker situation ect:

 

[treeclimber]

There are a lot of teams that would love to add Welker if he was on the open market. . The two you mentioned plus Tampa, Arizona, San Diego, Washington, Seattle, New Orleans, the Jets, The Phins, Ravens, The Bears, the Lions, Vikings, and Cowboys. Just to name a few.

A bunch of teams that won't be sniffing a Superbowl anytime soon!

 

[Gronkandez]

A league source tells the Boston Globe the Patriots and franchise player Wes Welker are "working hard" to reach a long-term deal before next Monday's deadline.

the real hang-up is how to structure a potential third year.

NFL | Report: Pats, Welker working toward extension - Rotoworld.com