KC Joyner: The Pats' defense to be most improved

[Rob0729]

KC Joyner listed his most improved defense and offenses based on draft picks. He has the Pats at #1 in the defensive category. Here is what he wrote:

1. New England Patriots: -600 yards

Key additions: DE Chandler Jones, LB Dont'a Hightower, CB Tavon Wilson, DE Jake Bequette

This is a case where a two-pronged approach will likely be used to solve the Patriots' biggest issue: stretch vertical pass defense. New England allowed a whopping 1,265 stretch vertical yards last year, second-highest in the NFL. Jones and Bequette should help beef up the pass rush and the Patriots' sack numbers. But the defense really needs a boost in the bad decision rate (BDR) metric, a stat that tracks how defenses capitalize on offensive mistakes. The dynasty Patriots teams always ranked at or near the top in this category, but last year's unit finished 24th, with a 2.2 percent BDR. If this group can raise its BDR to the 3 percent mark, it would equal about eight more interception opportunities. If four of those chances are indeed intercepted, using a formula that has an interception equaling about 50 yards, that trims off 200 yards of total defense. Throw in 10 more sacks, at about 8 to 10 yards per sack, and that's about another 100 yards. And with those 18 plays factored in, that could also remove roughly 300 yards in stretch vertical passes.

NFL- Improvement expected from drafting on one side of the ball - ESPN

 

[Kontradiction]

Yeah but yards given up doesn't matter and the 2011 defense was just fine, as BB showed with this year's draft. :bricks:

 

[Deus Irae]

"Throw in 10 more sacks...."

Yes, and those 10 sacks would have made them the league leader last season, and will have to come without Anderson and, maybe, Carter.....


Joyner should have done a proofread and fact check.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Yeah but yards given up doesn't matter and the 2011 defense was just fine, as BB showed with this year's draft. :bricks:

You're assuming a causality that few people here actually claimed: "the D wasn't as bad as it looks via yards, so it doesn't need any work."

I think many of us were a lot closer to "Yeah, this D could use help in the draft . . . BUT it wasn't as bad as it looked by yards alone."

 

[jsull87]

"Throw in 10 more sacks...."

Yes, and those 10 sacks would have made them the league leader last season, and will have to come without Anderson and, maybe, Carter.....


Joyner should have done a proofread and fact check.

Yeah it all sounds a bit flimsy to me. Throw in 10 more sacks, a couple of interceptions and a clean bill of health... and eureka you have an improved defense.

 

[DarrylS]

Have to keep in mind that it is ESPN... so the quality is less than expected.

 

[BTTA]

This is football geekdom gone wild. Extensive analysis that creates and uses complicated statistics, that even if it were done well (and it wasn't), would tell us something that we already know from common sense.

 

[Nomma]

This is football geekdom gone wild. Extensive analysis that creates and uses complicated statistics, that even if it were done well (and it wasn't), would tell us something that we already know from common sense.

You must hate baseball metrics then.

 

[goheels22002]

"But the defense really needs a boost in the bad decision rate (BDR) metric, a stat that tracks how defenses capitalize on offensive mistakes. The dynasty Patriots teams always ranked at or near the top in this category, but last year's unit finished 24th, with a 2.2 percent BDR. If this group can raise its BDR to the 3 percent mark, it would equal about eight more interception opportunities. If four of those chances are indeed intercepted, using a formula that has an interception equaling about 50 yards, that trims off 200 yards of total defense. Throw in 10 more sacks, at about 8 to 10 yards per sack, and that's about another 100 yards. And with those 18 plays factored in, that could also remove roughly 300 yards in stretch vertical passes."

I knew there was something I was missing and KC Joyner nailed it. This stat leaves me with more questions:

What is the statistic for letting Ben Roethlisberger stand back there and carve up the Patriots secondary like an Easter ham?

Does Bad Decision Rate (BDR) measure the impact of signing Albert Haynesworth and Bah-randon Merriweather's stupid penalties?

Does Bad Decision Rate (BDR) factor in finishing 29th in the NFL in 3rd down conversion rate by the opponent's offense?

The Patriots' problems on defense go way beyond 18 plays going in the Patriots' favor.

 

[ausbacker]

A decrease of 600 yards? That's 37.5 yards a game. Meh.

 

[reflexblue]

Have to keep in mind that it is ESPN... so the quality is less than expected.

While i agree the D will be better i have to ask....Why are we paying attention to what BSPN has to say all of a sudden?

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Yeah but yards given up doesn't matter and the 2011 defense was just fine, as BB showed with this year's draft. :bricks:

Yeah

All those offensive free agents signed happened only because the offense was too damn good.

Perhaps the draft should be reserved for special teams players because someone has to be drafted.

It's amazing the commentary that can be produced when an idiot posts thinking they have "confirmation" of the idiotic things they believe which.......makes then idiots.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

A decrease of 600 yards? That's 37.5 yards a game. Meh.

Yep, still leaves us in the bottom 6 at YPG. I've always defended this defense and stressed PPG over YPG but not when it leads you to lose TOP by 38-22 or whatever it was in the SB. Plus ever since 2007, this defense has forced exactly 1 crucial turnover in the playoffs, Spikes' pick off Flacco. If we're going to win another super bowl they need to make that leap to being a strength and not just a hope they don't **** it up for us.

 

[Rob0729]

"Throw in 10 more sacks...."

Yes, and those 10 sacks would have made them the league leader last season, and will have to come without Anderson and, maybe, Carter.....


Joyner should have done a proofread and fact check.

I don't know if the Pats will get ten more sacks this season, but I am not ready to say they won't have more sacks this year than last year without Anderson and even Carter. I have a number of reasons why I say that:

1.) If the secondary improves significantly, there will be more opportunities for coverage sacks.
2.) An improved play at the CB position will allow the Pats to do more exotic blitzing. Players like Chung, Mayo, and Spikes could significantly increase their sack totals from last year (of course 1 would be a significant increase for Spikes). Hightower could also get a lot of sacks from the LB position.
3.) Was it Anderson's and Carter's skills that got them each 10 sacks or the schemes? Can guys like Jones and Ninkovitch step in for them and get 8-10 sacks?

I don't look at either Anderson or Carter elite pass rushers. They were great last year, but Anderson has had a mediocre career before last year and might have just benefited from a scheme. I am not ready to say if we lose 20 sacks from those two that the Pats won't make up those sacks and potentially get more from their replacements and/or other positions.

 

[Metaphors]

What is the statistic for letting Ben Roethlisberger stand back there and carve up the Patriots secondary like an Easter ham?

There isn't one, which is why football is so interesting. The Pats came out with a gameplan that effectively eliminated the outside/deep receivers. They were daring Roethlisberger to force the ball downfield...which would seem to be a good idea based on the Steeler philosophy and Ben's temperament.

However, the Steelers threw a change-up and Ben was disciplined in attacking the middle of the field. The problem wasn't that Roethlisberger had all day to throw. The issue was that his first read was consistently open. When he did go to his WRs, it was on drag/crossing routes over the middle. It was a perfect storm of a gameplan mismatch combined with a gunslinger QB finding his inner Joe Montana.

 

[Nehalem]

Is it really news that the 31st ranked defense in the league is tagged as the defense to be most improved. There is pretty much only one way to go from there.

And hopefully with the influx of defensive talent through the draft it will come true.

 

[JR4]

Based on the schedule alone the D should improve.

I don't care about yards allowed or sacks or pressure on the QB or Interceptions, 3rd down, red zone D, etc.
The bottom line is Points allowed. Pats were 15th last year with 21 points allowed/game. Based on points allowed the PATs had a better D than the
overrated Jets and the Bills had one the of worst D's.

Considering the schedule I would say the D is improved significantly if
the PATs D allows only 17 or less points a game on the average.
I think during PATs Superbowl run their D ave was less than 17points/game.

 

[goheels22002]

There isn't one, which is why football is so interesting. The Pats came out with a gameplan that effectively eliminated the outside/deep receivers. They were daring Roethlisberger to force the ball downfield...which would seem to be a good idea based on the Steeler philosophy and Ben's temperament.

However, the Steelers threw a change-up and Ben was disciplined in attacking the middle of the field. The problem wasn't that Roethlisberger had all day to throw. The issue was that his first read was consistently open. When he did go to his WRs, it was on drag/crossing routes over the middle. It was a perfect storm of a gameplan mismatch combined with a gunslinger QB finding his inner Joe Montana.

I agree. The pass rush sucked that day, though, compared to what we saw from other defenses against the Squealers. That game was the most painful of 2011 for me.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Based on the schedule alone the D should improve.

Well it really can't get any easier than last year's schedule. After losing to Ben and Eli back to back, our defense didn't face a top 15 QB the rest of the regular season (unless you consider Ryan Fitzpatrick top 15, which I don't). That's probably the most discouraging thing about last year is how bad they were despite such a joke schedule over the 2nd half.

 

[Triumph]

Yeah but yards given up doesn't matter and the 2011 defense was just fine, as BB showed with this year's draft. :bricks:

Yards given up definitely matter.