or about 1 in 2 to the 50th power. Since there is a 1 in 2 chance it will be heads each time, the odds of a heads, followed by a heads, followed by a heads 50 times in a row is 2 to the 50th power or........
1024 x 1024 x 1024 x 1024 x 1024 = one in 1,125,899,906,842,624 times
(2 to the 10th power) x itself 5 times.......
yeah it would have to be a pretty unlikely coin......
Yes, hard to believe it's a fair coin. Seems *almost* impossible. Yet it IS a fair coin! I know what you're saying -- it's amazing, virtually uneblievable. But, you see, you have to trust me on this, because it's my hypothetical, and so it's my rules. So yes, as unlikely as it seems, my hypothetical coin did in fact come up 50 heads in a row. Bizzare, I know.
For the record, this is why my example, umm, well, works. It wouldn't exactly make my point if the prior events were likely, would it?
It's a fair coin. Don't fight the hypothetical.
Or, if you must fight the hypothetical, pick whatever number you want. The point doesn't change.
Incidentally, I'd go with 2 to the 49th, since the first flip is irrelevant with respect to whether you get 50 of the same flips in a row. It is unclear from my hypothetical whether the flipper called the first flip or not. Actually, since it's my hypothetical, he didn't. He also, interestingly, weighs 480 pounds, our flipper. And he's a raving St. Louis Blues fan who has his Doug Weight throwback jerseys custom made so he can wear them to the games, where he has an aisle seat and has bought the seat next to him too for the extra room. And, although this is unlikely too, he does needlepoint at the games and is the best needlepointist in St. Louis. (Or do you want to take on that part of my hypothetical too for being unlikely?)
:0)
