Wes re Gronk and hernandez...

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

The observation that the team has an apparent weakness in college WR evaluation does create a limitation with regard to how they get them. And that reduces the number of opportunities and likelihood of success. In the end, the Pats end up with fewer good players at that position, and having to use resources to make up for it that could have been used on other positions. It does matter that they haven't had success with the draft at that position.

Actually, it doesn't.

Based on common metrics, 3 years is the benchmark for time to develop an NFL WR.

Likewise, BB has often stated WR is the toughest position to project for transition to the next level.

The obvious solution.......trade for WR's and sign free agents.

About the only thing that will matter is BB will probably not waste anymore time drafting WR's.

 

[Spergon Wynn]

At this point, I'd let Welker play out the tag and extend Hernandez, who has more upside at this point in their respective careers.

Hernandez can run those same underneath routes and make quick cuts and slants.

Not saying that I want Welker to walk, in fact I want him to retire as Patriot, but locking up Hernandez is better for the future of this team.

 

[Jack Handy]

Why are people getting down on welker like he was an underperforming asset that the team is being nice to carry? Part of the reason the TEs are such a problem is that Wes took so much of the coverage his way or would catch 14 balls for 200 yards.

The team would not have the same production without him. In order of importance I put

Gronk
Welker
Hern

 

[Spergon Wynn]

Why are people getting down on welker like he was an underperforming asset that the team is being nice to carry? Part of the reason the TEs are such a problem is that Wes took so much of the coverage his way or would catch 14 balls for 200 yards.

The team would not have the same production without him. In order of importance I put

Gronk
Welker
Hern

I'm not "down" on Welker but it's a matter of investment. I don't see a major drop off this year but I'm not sure that the numbers that he and his agent are looking for are feasible.

Lets face it: he's on the wrong side of his career. I still think he will be a solid contributor but I'd rather invest in younger players who have shown they can play like Hernandez.

I'm also not sure I buy the idea that the TEs wouldn't put up great numbers without him. Weren't there some saying that Welker himself would face a dropoff after Moss left? Well that didn't happen.

I feel like I have to say it again just to be safe: I want Wes Welker to retire as a Patriot but for the right price and not at the expense of younger players who have shown they can produce on a high level.

 

[spacecrime]

I want Wes to remain a Patriot for this coming season and two more. I say BS to all those who think Wes should be gone after this coming season.

Do you want him for three more years because he will be worth $8 -$10 mil a year for three years or as a reward for how well he did.

I say BS to the idea that a player should be paid in the future for what he used to be, and also BS to the idea the Welker will be worth $8 - $10 mil three years from now.

Ideally, release a player when he turns the corner and starts downhill, but since that is impossible to do all the time, better to release a year to soon rather than a year too late.

And I would DEFINITELY rather extend Hernandez than Welker.

 

[spacecrime]

The observation that the team has an apparent weakness in college WR evaluation does create a limitation with regard to how they get them. And that reduces the number of opportunities and likelihood of success. In the end, the Pats end up with fewer good players at that position, and having to use resources to make up for it that could have been used on other positions. It does matter that they haven't had success with the draft at that position.

Hard to tell what you mean, but if you are saying that signing WRs as FAs and trading for WRs instead of drafting them saves resources, I wholeheartedly agree.

Draft a WR in the first round, and it may work out or it may not, but you are stuck paying first round money if it doesn't. Signing a FA WR in his third or fourth year or fifth year you pretty much KNOW what you are getting, and if it doesn't work out, you can cut your losses. Better to sign Stallworth, cut him and sign again when needed than to draft 15th overall and spend a lot of money and years while he leards to be a good WR. Lots cheaper and you save a first round pick you used for Wilfork.

A second round pick for Welker and a fourth round pick for Moss saved two more first round picks for DEs and DBs.

 

[mayoclinic]

I think the Pats should offer Welker the identical $55m deal thru 2019 that Gronk is getting:

The. Welker can't be upset that the team will "commit" long term to Gronk but not to him.

 

[Ring 6]

I think the Pats should offer Welker the identical $55m deal thru 2019 that Gronk is getting:

The. Welker can't be upset that the team will "commit" long term to Gronk but not to him.

Welker isn't saying Welker is upset. People who own computers and post here are saying he is. Worlds of difference.

 

[Ring 6]

5 WRs in rounds 2 (Deion Branch, Bethel Johnson, Chad Jackson) and 3 (Brandon Tate, Taylor Price). It's nitpicking, but "rare" may be a tad harsh.

zero in round 1.
That is a 10 year period. I would venture to say you can't find many teams that have used fewer draft picks (as well as based upon the round) as the Patriots in that timeframe.
Rare is a comparative word.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I'm not "down" on Welker but it's a matter of investment. I don't see a major drop off this year but I'm not sure that the numbers that he and his agent are looking for are feasible.

Lets face it: he's on the wrong side of his career. I still think he will be a solid contributor but I'd rather invest in younger players who have shown they can play like Hernandez.

I'm also not sure I buy the idea that the TEs wouldn't put up great numbers without him. Weren't there some saying that Welker himself would face a dropoff after Moss left? Well that didn't happen.

I feel like I have to say it again just to be safe: I want Wes Welker to retire as a Patriot but for the right price and not at the expense of younger players who have shown they can produce on a high level.

What are Welker and his agent looking for? I don't know and I guarantee you don't. What if he's been looking for 4 x $7M+ and $18M guaranteed? I do know what they offered him (2 years $16M guaranteed) when added to his salary remaining last season when he was just 30 would have resulted in a 3 year $19M deal, or just over $6M per. That's why it didn't get done. Then he went out and put up his best season to date...on the heels of 4 pretty damned impressive seasons despite suffering a torn ACL at one point.

It's not an either or choice. This team can afford Gronk and Welker and Ahern at least for the next 3-4 years. They have one 30 year old WR signed for 3 years and another 31 year old WR signed for 2 years for about $4.5M and two more over 30's who will play for as long as they want them to for about a million per (but both may be done after this season) and they have a 7th round rookie who has never set foot on an NFL field signed for bupkiss for 4 years - all under contract for cheap $$$.

Gronk's deal hits the cap for the next 2 years at just over $2M per, then it hits at $5-6M+ for the next 4 years. Hernandez won't top that whether extended or not. Gronk's next 4 years guarantees are based on 2 rookie salary only years and two years as if tagged. Why not do the same for Welker only frontload the cap. 4 years $18.5M guaranteed (tag salary plus $9M guaranteed option bonus vs. $21M total if tagged but there is no guarantee he would be or will be healthy and get another $9M guaranteed on a deal somewhere else in 2013 - so time value of money discount applied) and 3 years of unguaranteed salary at $3-4M (that are essentially meaningless as he may or may not see those or could be asked to restructure and reduce salary if he's not still producing at a 90+ reception or thousand yard pace). Cap hits $11.25, $6.25M, $5.25M or $2M less if forced to restructure to vet min., $5.25M or again $2M less if restructured to vet min. You could even fluff the total value of the deal with $3-4M more in meaningless backend salaries. Dead cap if instead cut in 4th year (2015) $2.25M. The dead cap on Chad's sunk cost this year is $3M...so obviously NBD.

They can afford all 3 over the next 3-4 seasons. The key is Hernandez being reasonable and getting a Gronk light deal later this season or waiting to be tagged, and tagged again, and frankly either option will work. If on the other hand he's not reasonable it won't matter what Welker or Gronk did, he probably won't be here.

And please remember, those TE's have only produced on a truly high level once to date. Wes has done it consistently for 5 years in succession.

 

[mayoclinic]

Welker isn't saying Welker is upset. People who own computers and post here are saying he is. Worlds of difference.

I agree. I said that Welker had nothing to be upset about in terms of Gronk's contract.

 

[woolster22]

I never said Wes was unhappy. Simply that his leaving would be one part of two options that I feel are likely.

Either way, the "mutually agreeable" gronk signing makes it easier to figure contract numbers. Hell maybe Welker gets a front loaded contract with options and performance bonuses tied in, but at a level that allows an a early promotion for Hernandez as well. This is simply homer pipe dream, but let a guy fantasize...

Realistically, the season plays on from here in the offensive side (wr/te anyway), and those that perform get the money next year (hern, lloyd, Gaffney, Wes) in some combination of who has what value compared to perceived team resources left. I think hern, Gaffney and Lloyd make it back with money being set aside for the rb's and line after this year as well...
I still think Welker ends up coming back for a one day deal after playing the rest if his ball out of the flying Elvis


...I hope I'm wrong too

Sent from my SCH-I510 using Tapatalk 2

 

[randomk1]

AH has to be priority. I think he is a top 5 player at age 22 and improving.

Wes could walk but i think he will want to stay in NE.

 

[mayoclinic]

Bedard stirs things up, saying that he believes the Pats do not view Welker as a "core player":

Bedard: Pats don't believe Welker is one of their core players

I think he's speculating a bit here, and being a bit harsh.

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

Bedard stirs things up, saying that he believes the Pats do not view Welker as a "core player":

Bedard: Pats don't believe Welker is one of their core players

I think he's speculating a bit here, and being a bit harsh.

I don't think they'd franchise him if that was the truth. I think most people can agree that the contract issues aren't about what he is now, it's about concerns over what he will be in another 2-3 years.

 

[Rob0729]

The problem with the WRs is the Patriots haven't drafted a good one in TEN years. Branch is who I'm referring to, and for all the glory, he's never topped 1000 yards. Yes, it's true, the Pats have never drafted a 1000 yard OR pro bowl receiver in the Brady era. I don't recall any studs drafted by Belichick in Cleveland either. They obviously have a problem evaluating young talent and how they fit with their philosophy. They've had better luck in free agency. Considering how critical it is to have financial resources for WR, the team is just being extremely careful with the Welker situation. I predict the former, where Welker caves in with a 2 yr, 20M deal.

In terms of Hernandez, I don't really think the Gronk extension is relevant. If anything, they now have more leverage on AH because they could tag him as a TE, similar to what the Packers did with Finley.

The Pats have a real disadvantage when it comes to evaluating WRs in college. The Pats run arguably the most complicated offense or at least in the top three in the league. The problem is no one runs nearly as complicated offense in college. Not even close. That means the Pats cannot really gather whether a WR will pick up the Pats' system.

For example, the Pats spent a lot of time with Chad Jackson grilling him on plays and situational football. He looked like he was going to grasp the offense with ease based on that. He could never really grasp the offense when he got here.

As stated, the Pats do have other avenues to get WRs that they have been far more successful at. They have gotten some very good WRs via free agency and trades including Welker. I am sure the Pats will find replacements when they need to.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

What are Welker and his agent looking for? I don't know and I guarantee you don't. What if he's been looking for 4 x $7M+ and $18M guaranteed? I do know what they offered him (2 years $16M guaranteed) when added to his salary remaining last season when he was just 30 would have resulted in a 3 year $19M deal, or just over $6M per. That's why it didn't get done. Then he went out and put up his best season to date...on the heels of 4 pretty damned impressive seasons despite suffering a torn ACL at one point.

It's not an either or choice. This team can afford Gronk and Welker and Ahern at least for the next 3-4 years. They have one 30 year old WR signed for 3 years and another 31 year old WR signed for 2 years for about $4.5M and two more over 30's who will play for as long as they want them to for about a million per (but both may be done after this season) and they have a 7th round rookie who has never set foot on an NFL field signed for bupkiss for 4 years - all under contract for cheap $$$.

Gronk's deal hits the cap for the next 2 years at just over $2M per, then it hits at $5-6M+ for the next 4 years. Hernandez won't top that whether extended or not. Gronk's next 4 years guarantees are based on 2 rookie salary only years and two years as if tagged. Why not do the same for Welker only frontload the cap. 4 years $18.5M guaranteed (tag salary plus $9M guaranteed option bonus vs. $21M total if tagged but there is no guarantee he would be or will be healthy and get another $9M guaranteed on a deal somewhere else in 2013 - so time value of money discount applied) and 3 years of unguaranteed salary at $3-4M (that are essentially meaningless as he may or may not see those or could be asked to restructure and reduce salary if he's not still producing at a 90+ reception or thousand yard pace). Cap hits $11.25, $6.25M, $5.25M or $2M less if forced to restructure to vet min., $5.25M or again $2M less if restructured to vet min. You could even fluff the total value of the deal with $3-4M more in meaningless backend salaries. Dead cap if instead cut in 4th year (2015) $2.25M. The dead cap on Chad's sunk cost this year is $3M...so obviously NBD.

They can afford all 3 over the next 3-4 seasons. The key is Hernandez being reasonable and getting a Gronk light deal later this season or waiting to be tagged, and tagged again, and frankly either option will work. If on the other hand he's not reasonable it won't matter what Welker or Gronk did, he probably won't be here.

And please remember, those TE's have only produced on a truly high level once to date. Wes has done it consistently for 5 years in succession.

Anybody know anything about this agent?

Apparently Wes and AHern share the same guy.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Actually I think his speculation is spot on. It's as if in expecting a solid return from Welker from the outset they came to devalue his excess contributions. And they certainly appear to believe they have the upper hand relative to his desire to remain here. Made a similar mistake with Branch a long time ago. And spent a lot of $$ and lived to regret it. The 2009 playoff meltdown should have taught them a lesson about more than the D. It always struck me as odd that Welker has never been named a captain, even as he consistently is the most productive weapon on offense and the guy at the post game podium weekly leading into or following up on Tommy's company line mantra, and I do think they maintain a tumb on the scale when the ballots are tallied. They say they want him to retire as a Patriot, but they seem to want to decide for him when that will be...and for some reason it's sooner than later and that is at the moment etched in stone. Odd mindset given his history.

The offer they made him last fall, 2 years $16M guaranteed (to what exent we do not know) was really a 3 year $19M deal or an average of $6M per. Weak sauce if not for concern over the ACL. But then coming off a record setting season, absent the ability to amortize back, the guaranteed money offer has decreased. It's one thing for a team to butt heads with a player looking for top of the market money for 5+ years. Somehow, I don't think that is the case here or the team would have leaked that as they did with Branch and Asante. Really has created a WTF situation for most observers where the only rationale they can muster is his age (which many then fall into the habit of exagerating because just turning 31 makes less sense from the rationale standpoint) or desire to move away from what has long been their ace in the hole, Tom having a rapore with a safety valve option he basically occupies a brain wave with, because they finally have productive 2 TE's and hopefully finally have a couple of outside the numbers WR's. None of which has yet proven to be consistently bankable, though. Or Bill is having flashbacks to a slot receiver on a team he once coached who was never in Wes' league and they are suddenly concerned about long term impact/usage ramifications (although they weren't overly concerned about usage ramifications over the last 3-4 seasons...when he was a bargain).

Bedard is clearly a fan, that was evident when he went ballistic over the criticism Welker endured after the SB game. I have a feeling though he won't state it he wouldn't be surprised if that minsdet doesn't still resonate somewhat within the FO.

I hope his teamates have the balls and the brains to insure he is a captain this season. That he hasn't been on a team grappling with leadership voids over the last few seasons is befuddling. If on the other hand Gronk gets the nod...you will know the thumb is sending the team a message and attempting to engineer an outcome like they attempted to do with Moss and AD...and even at times Seymour and Warren and Harrison and Graham and Vince and Mayo (not to mention 2011's Mankins, McCourty and Slater...). They won't have Faulk to split the difference or an established OL pecking order with Light retired and Mankins likely on PUP, so it will be enlightening to see where else the votes might go...and to mull over the why.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Anybody know anything about this agent?

Apparently Wes and AHern share the same guy.

David Dunn is one of the more respected and big names in the business and his agency, Athletes First, which he opened after a messy partnership breakup with former super agent Leigh Steinberg who is now bankrupt and out of business, has repped several Pats players most recent seasons and supposedly always had a good relationship with them. He was Cassel's agent. And Big Bang Clock's. His current NEP clients include Bequette, Dennard, Mallett, Solder, Vereen, Waters...and Wes. So it's not like they are avoiding his clients as they have in the past with say Condon.

Here's his client list:

Athletes First | Athletes

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

David Dunn is one of the more respected and big names in the business and his agency, Athletes First, which he opened after a messy partnership breakup with former super agent Leigh Steinberg who is now bankrupt and out of business, has repped several Pats players most recent seasons and supposedly always had a good relationship with them. He was Cassel's agent. And Big Bang Clock's. His current NEP clients include Bequette, Dennard, Mallett, Solder, Vereen, Waters...and Wes. So it's not like they are avoiding his clients as they have in the past with say Condon.

Here's his client list:

Athletes First | Athletes

Unfamiliarity is certainly not a problem.

The client list looks to be a good mixture of tiers and age. Hopefully this indicates good faith bargaining.