Reading Walker's musings for a while now and he is THE ESPN regional lightweight. Has zero insight into any of the division teams and his observations and opinions run contrary even to his ESPN peers concensus (and I don't think he's aiming to be contrarian for effect) to the point they are headscratchers.
As to the Welker Hernandez conundrum...
This deal actually makes it easier to extend Wes for as long as they want to. The rub remains only for how long they are willing to extend and at what price. Looking back at what they offered, which was also going to be tacked on to a remaining low salary season, they seem to want 2 more years at what would have averaged just over $6M per ($3M, $8M, $8M) albeit with $16M guaranteed. He'd probably settle for a "true" $8M AAV or maybe even a little less structured to imply he sees at least 2 more years (via guaranteed money) on the horizon here and preferably a reasonable expectation of 3. Considering his 2011 salary is already banked, Welker isn't risking much by rolling the dice going forward beyond what the team is risking, his not being here. Financially it's down to the difference between $9.5M and $13M... He will get $3.5M from someone next season barring catatrophic career ending injury, and possibly a good deal more.
I think the jury is still out on Hernandez as opposed to Gronk. They are down to catastrophic concerns with Gronk, and they have those about Brady. Aaron still has a slight tendancy to lose focus periodically. They probably want to see a little more consistency there as well as better general overall durability (he gets dinged and misses time and struggles when dinged which becomes a greater concern if you are often dinged). They could still get a similar deal done for him later this season, if Dunn is interested in one, provided Aaron doesn't want to play the what am I game. For him it might be shorter term (adding 4 to get to 6 increasing his likelihood of getting a 2nd bite at the big deal apple) with similar guarantee money as the tradeoff against lower total deal and new money and annual average numbers.
The cap hits on Gronk's deal to match what Reiss laid out (absent workout money) project as:
2012 $2.14M
2013 $2.23M
2014 $5.35M (if on the roster at season end another $4.75 in 2015 salary becomes guaranteed for injury - if not, dead cap if cut $3.2M or $2M*)
2015 $6.35M (no more guaranteed money in the deal. Team option to pick up balance of contract comes between end of season and early next season)
2016 $6.35M (Option bonus of $10M is earned when paid - dead cap if option not picked up $400K or zero*)
2017 $6.75M (dead cap if cut or traded $7.5M or $6M*)
2018 $10.5M (dead cap if cut or traded $5M or $4M*)
2019 $11.5M (dead cap if cut or traded $2.5M or $2M*)
The figures alter slightly* if $8M signing bonus is prorated over 4 years, but CBA says you can prorate into option year provided any voidable year is only voidable at team and not player discretion ($400K difference per*). Also if they pick up the $10M option before the end of the 2015 season rather than waiting until prior to the 2016 season, that option could be prorated over 5 rather than the remaining 4 seasons ($500K difference per*). Projecting the cap is difficult at this juncture, but if it remains basically flat thru 2014 (say $125M) and just rises $5M per thereafter as the TV deal revenues finally begin to kick in, the cap in 2019 would project to be $150M.
If things don't work out the team can walk away from the player and the deal in 3 or 4 years. After the option is exercised they can again walk away after 6 years with manageable or minimal dead cap. If he's not a top 5 TE worth $8M+ at ages 29-30, or not worth it to a team who by then will probably be minus it's $20M QB and even it's HOF HC and on to the next chapter, they can cut him, trade him or restructure him. Conversely they could also tack another year or two onto the deal down the stretch by simply converting portions of the remaining salaries into up front bonus money.
Meanwhile, having created a template for retaining elite young talent through their prime at managable cap and cash cost, most agents aren't going to go for this without a fight. Something to keep in mind before proposing this as the answer to all extension woes. I think the fact that Gronk is who he is and Rosenhaus needed some buzz (he's lost some clients lately and others are watching) created the perfect atmosphere to get this deal done. And it doesn't work quite as well if you're not working off the lowest tag valued position on the field at the moment and you weren't drafted in the second round or later. It's also not a template that will work for those drafted under the new CBA since it prohibits extensions prior to the player completing 3 years of service and they are only signed for 4 now with a 5th year prescribed tag or top 10/20 value option available only for 1st rounders after that 3rd season,
