Hoyer "A Most Marketable Backup"

[mayoclinic]

ESPN's Chris Sprow

Hoyer a most marketable backup - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston
NFL - Brian Hoyer, Kirk Cousins among most marketable QBs for 2012 - ESPN

Sprow notes:

Last year, we said [Matt] Flynn would be the hottest name among NFL backups, this offseason's Kevin Kolb. He was. This year, it could be Hoyer. And while you could argue it behooves [Bill] Belichick to highlight Hoyer's ability so a trade market emerges, it's just as likely the coach sees him as a sound security blanket behind Brady. After all, Belichick has needed a backup before, and the assurance that someone could run the New England scheme is worth more than, say, the third- to fifth-rounder the Patriots could get for Hoyer in a trade.

He'll be an unrestricted free agent in 2013, and the Patriots have Ryan Mallett waiting to be the QB behind the emergency glass. Hoyer had an "average everything" skill set out of Michigan State, but three full years with Brady and Belichick and impressive showings in his very limited time on the field (including preseason) will have teams interested. Even if teams are buying on osmosis alone, Hoyer should have suitors.

Sprow also lists Ryan Mallett in the "not there yet" class noting:

If Hoyer is Brady's insurance policy, Mallett is Hoyer's. Has the talent profile of a future starter.

The Pats are sitting pretty. They can keep Hoyer and Mallett and have enviable depth at the QB position. They can wait to see how Mallett develops before deciding whether to let Hoyer walk in 2013 or whether to try and extend him. And if Mallett develops during training camp and some other team has a QB injury, the Pats would have great leverage for a trade.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

re: Hoyer "A Most Marketable Backup"

ESPN's Chris Sprow

Hoyer a most marketable backup - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston
NFL - Brian Hoyer, Kirk Cousins among most marketable QBs for 2012 - ESPN

Sprow notes:



Sprow also lists Ryan Mallett in the "not there yet" class noting:



The Pats are sitting pretty. They can keep Hoyer and Mallett and have enviable depth at the QB position. They can wait to see how Mallett develops before deciding whether to let Hoyer walk in 2013 or whether to try and extend him. And if Mallett develops during training camp and some other team has a QB injury, the Pats would have great leverage for a trade.

Hoyer won't have much value before 2013 that he didn't have this off season. And he tested the market. And then signed his tender pdq. Teams who lose QB's are (rightly or wrongly) looking either for a veteran presence with significant starting experience and preferably in a similar scheme or a backup with possible unrealized potential who is versed in their system. It's too late for that in August unless maybe KC needs a starter...or Rex is looking for a new captain (but he wouldn't be traded there...). Nobody else is running anything remotely like the system run here. That he can run it speaks volumes about his capacity, which is what Lombardi sees in him, but if they run something else entirely that won't matter absent an off season to assimilate and the requisite skillset to perform within that system. And sometimes even then (see Cassel with the golf pro absent Charlie). That's what other GM's and HC's fear any backup here could be. A system QB. It's something Hoyer will have to disprove in a league where perception is reality.

As for signing him to an extension, not going to happen unless no one wants him to even compete as a starter come 2013. I think the last team that hung on to a backup past his rookie deal was Indy with Sorgi (knowing Manning was coming off knee issues) and it didn't last but another year. After that he landed on IR in Indy and then the Giants IR. And then oblivion. These young guys all want a shot at starting and if they don't they probably aren't worth it. And given what already failed starters like Orton and Henne commanded on the market this past off season, Hoyer absent draft compensation shoud be able to land a shot at a million or more in bonus money on a 2-3 year incentivized prove it deal. He won't get that here but more importantly he won't get a shot to compete as a starter (just what he's had for the last 4 years, the job of backing up a HOF QB who seldom exits a game and intends to play until Hoyer is in his 30's).

Early OTA reports don't look as bright for Mallett (profile not withstanding) as some had hoped. Josh is taping all their throws and maybe he can get that turned around if it's mechanics and not decision making - because you're either born with that to some extent or it's almost impossible to develop to the point it becomes consistent under pressure. Right now he doesn't have to be a #2 until this time next season. Although if Bill begins to doubt he can be that by then, then the QB situation here isn't looking quite as enviable or rosy as you project it to be (besides the fact that every day remains rosy comparatively speaking as long as Brady is still standing).

 

[mayoclinic]

re: Hoyer "A Most Marketable Backup"

Hoyer won't have much value before 2013 that he didn't have this off season. And he tested the market. And then signed his tender pdq. Teams who lose QB's are (rightly or wrongly) looking either for a veteran presence with significant starting experience and preferably in a similar scheme or a backup with possible unrealized potential who is versed in their system. It's too late for that in August unless maybe KC needs a starter...or Rex is looking for a new captain (but he wouldn't be traded there...). Nobody else is running anything remotely like the system run here. That he can run it speaks volumes about his capacity, which is what Lombardi sees in him, but if they run something else entirely that won't matter absent an off season to assimilate and the requisite skillset to perform within that system. And sometimes even then (see Cassel with the golf pro absent Charlie). That's what other GM's and HC's fear any backup here could be. A system QB. It's something Hoyer will have to disprove in a league where perception is reality.

As for signing him to an extension, not going to happen unless no one wants him to even compete as a starter come 2013. I think the last team that hung on to a backup past his rookie deal was Indy with Sorgi (knowing Manning was coming off knee issues) and it didn't last but another year. After that he landed on IR in Indy and then the Giants IR. And then oblivion. These young guys all want a shot at starting and if they don't they probably aren't worth it. And given what already failed starters like Orton and Henne commanded on the market this past off season, Hoyer absent draft compensation shoud be able to land a shot at a million or more in bonus money on a 2-3 year incentivized prove it deal. He won't get that here but more importantly he won't get a shot to compete as a starter (just what he's had for the last 4 years, the job of backing up a HOF QB who seldom exits a game and intends to play until Hoyer is in his 30's).

Early OTA reports don't look as bright for Mallett (profile not withstanding) as some had hoped. Josh is taping all their throws and maybe he can get that turned around if it's mechanics and not decision making - because you're either born with that to some extent or it's almost impossible to develop to the point it becomes consistent under pressure. Right now he doesn't have to be a #2 until this time next season. Although if Bill begins to doubt he can be that by then, then the QB situation here isn't looking quite as enviable or rosy as you project it to be (besides the fact that every day remains rosy comparatively speaking as long as Brady is still standing).

It's entirely possible that things won't be a rosy as hoped for. There's always uncertainty. I wouldn't put much emhasis on one OTA report of Ryan Mallett, but he is still largely an unknown quantity.

All things considered, we seem to be in decent position as far as QB depth. Consider our opening day QB depth chart over the past decade (rookies denoted with an *):

2002: Tom Brady, Rohan Davey*, Damon Huard
2003: Tom Brady, Rohan Davey, Damon Huard
2004: Tom Brady, Rohan Davey, Jim Miller
2005: Tom Brady, Matt Cassel*, Doug Flutie
2006: Tom Brady, Matt Cassel
2007: Tom Brady, Matt Cassel, Matt Gutierrez*
2008: Tom Brady, Matt Cassel, Kevin O'Connell*, which quickly turned into Matt Cassell, Kevin O'Connell*, Matt Gutierrez
2009: Tom Brady, Brian Hoyer*
2010: Tom Brady, Brian Hoyer
2011: Tom Brady, Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett*

Admittedly it's not Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning behind Brady at QB. But t's hard not to feel positive about a 4th year player that the team is supposedly very high on along with a guy who was projected to be a 1st round draft pick who's had a year to learn the system. It's a lot better looking than where we were in 2008 when Brady went down. We've lived a lot more dangerously over the past decade.

 

[TyronePoole]

re: Hoyer "A Most Marketable Backup"

Hoyer won't have much value before 2013 that he didn't have this off season. And he tested the market. And then signed his tender pdq. Teams who lose QB's are (rightly or wrongly) looking either for a veteran presence with significant starting experience and preferably in a similar scheme or a backup with possible unrealized potential who is versed in their system. It's too late for that in August unless maybe KC needs a starter...or Rex is looking for a new captain (but he wouldn't be traded there...). Nobody else is running anything remotely like the system run here. That he can run it speaks volumes about his capacity, which is what Lombardi sees in him, but if they run something else entirely that won't matter absent an off season to assimilate and the requisite skillset to perform within that system. And sometimes even then (see Cassel with the golf pro absent Charlie). That's what other GM's and HC's fear any backup here could be. A system QB. It's something Hoyer will have to disprove in a league where perception is reality.

As for signing him to an extension, not going to happen unless no one wants him to even compete as a starter come 2013. I think the last team that hung on to a backup past his rookie deal was Indy with Sorgi (knowing Manning was coming off knee issues) and it didn't last but another year. After that he landed on IR in Indy and then the Giants IR. And then oblivion. These young guys all want a shot at starting and if they don't they probably aren't worth it. And given what already failed starters like Orton and Henne commanded on the market this past off season, Hoyer absent draft compensation shoud be able to land a shot at a million or more in bonus money on a 2-3 year incentivized prove it deal. He won't get that here but more importantly he won't get a shot to compete as a starter (just what he's had for the last 4 years, the job of backing up a HOF QB who seldom exits a game and intends to play until Hoyer is in his 30's).

Early OTA reports don't look as bright for Mallett (profile not withstanding) as some had hoped. Josh is taping all their throws and maybe he can get that turned around if it's mechanics and not decision making - because you're either born with that to some extent or it's almost impossible to develop to the point it becomes consistent under pressure. Right now he doesn't have to be a #2 until this time next season. Although if Bill begins to doubt he can be that by then, then the QB situation here isn't looking quite as enviable or rosy as you project it to be (besides the fact that every day remains rosy comparatively speaking as long as Brady is still standing).

link to the bolded?

 

[mayoclinic]

re: Hoyer "A Most Marketable Backup"

link to the bolded?

FWIW (not much, IMHO), the most detailed and negative comment was from Andy Hart:

Ryan Mallett has struggled over the last two Thursdays. He takes way too long to get rid of the ball on nearly every one of his reps. When he does decide to unload it, dumping it off to a guy in the flat the ball is often off-target or behind the receiver. It’s too early in the process to make any long term evaluations but Mallett right now looks like another former strong-armed, decision-slow, off-target Patriots backup from the SEC named Rohan Davey. In an observation from afar on the grassy hill next to the practice fields it looks Mallett needs to work mightily on decision making, getting rid of the ball and accuracy

Official Patriots Football Weekly Blog | From the Hart: OTA observations

I'm personally a bit hesitant to rush to judgment on Mallett based on that. None of the other guys have commented in any detail on Mallett. He did have a pass intercepted by Marquice Coles in one session. And Greg Bedard also noted:

In the team period, QB Brian Hoyer was 7-of-9 with most of his completions going to Brandon Lloyd (three), Wes Welker (two) and Jabar Gaffney (two). QB Ryan Mallett was 2-of-6 but Stevan Ridley did drop a pass. Brady was 0-for-1 with his pass to Julian Edelman underthrown and batted away by Nate Ebner.

Patriots open OTA No. 2: Practice observations - Page 2 - Boston.com

 

[PatsFanSince74]

re: Hoyer "A Most Marketable Backup"

Quite a tribute to Belichick's coaching and coaches, Brady's mentoring and the Patriot Way, not to mention Hoyer's abilities.

I'd be willing to bet a dinner at Grill 23 with a good bottle of wine that the next long term, starting QB of the Patriots is not on their roster today.

 

[Clonamery]

re: Hoyer "A Most Marketable Backup"

FWIW (not much, IMHO), the most detailed and negative comment was from Andy Hart:



Official Patriots Football Weekly Blog | From the Hart: OTA observations

I'm personally a bit hesitant to rush to judgment on Mallett based on that. None of the other guys have commented in any detail on Mallett. He did have a pass intercepted by Marquice Coles in one session. And Greg Bedard also noted:



Patriots open OTA No. 2: Practice observations - Page 2 - Boston.com

Clearly Edelman stinks. Looked uncomfortable in church too.

 

[mayoclinic]

re: Hoyer "A Most Marketable Backup"

Hoyer won't have much value before 2013 that he didn't have this off season. And he tested the market. And then signed his tender pdq. Teams who lose QB's are (rightly or wrongly) looking either for a veteran presence with significant starting experience and preferably in a similar scheme or a backup with possible unrealized potential who is versed in their system.

CNNSI.com's Chris Burke differs with your view:

Huddle Up: Brian Hoyer trade remains a possibility for Patriots – Audibles

 

[supafly]

CNNSI.com's Chris Burke differs with your view:

Huddle Up: Brian Hoyer trade remains a possibility for Patriots – Audibles

I believe that Hoyer certainly has some kind of potential trade compensation for at least a couple of teams, possibly a few depending upon injury status late in the summer. The problem is how much, in my opinion.

I personally don't see anyone offering more than a mid round pick (which normally would have been just fine, bordering on 'great'), and in this particular situation, it wouldn't be more than he's worth to this team in his current state.

Many differ on valuing his potential trade compensation, some will go as high as a 3rd rounder, while others go as low as a 5th or 6th. Just for this exercise, let's assume that we'd get a 4th for Hoyer's services. (In my opinion I am being generous, due to his lack of playing time etc, but for the sake of argument, a 4th is meeting in the middle).

Even a 4th rd pick probably doesn't equate to being worth it in the minds of the team, who have invested years in grooming him, familiarizing him with our system, and giving him practice and preseason reps with some of the starters at times.

I personally believe that:

a. Yes, he offers some potential trade bait
b. That trade compensation is not what some believe
c. Even in a best case scenario, it would likely not be enough to part with him as his value to this team seems to be greater than some realize

I know it may be a double-standard of sorts, claiming that he has value to the NEP but not as much for others, but he has been the primary backup here for awhile and knows the system pretty well.

Most importantly, Mallett is not ready to be the primary backup yet, so that would leave us with significant holes at spots #2 AND #3. It just wouldn't be worth it in my opinion, although Belichick's could very well differ and he is much smarter than me and knows the situation much better than I do.

If Mallett had progressed enough, then it may have been a different story, where something like a 4th round pick would have been enough to jump for joy and run with it. For what it is worth, I couldn't possibly see Hoyer gaining us anything higher than a 5th, and that's in an absolute best case scenario, but I split the difference with where some stand, and where others stand ("Hoyer could net us a 3rd rounder easily" )

 

[supafly]

FWIW (not much, IMHO), the most detailed and negative comment was from Andy Hart:



Official Patriots Football Weekly Blog | From the Hart: OTA observations

I'm personally a bit hesitant to rush to judgment on Mallett based on that. None of the other guys have commented in any detail on Mallett. He did have a pass intercepted by Marquice Coles in one session. And Greg Bedard also noted:



Patriots open OTA No. 2: Practice observations - Page 2 - Boston.com

In a complicated system such as this one, I almost wish that we wouldn't hear some of the OTA comments regarding the young players, Mallett being lumped into that category too due to the lockout and lack of sufficient time last year. I appreciate Bedard's views, and am glad that he passes stuff along, but OTA's for (basically rookies) are times when the player has taken practice snaps for only a handful of times. I don't agree with writing such negative stuff at least until TC.

So far this year in OTA's we've heard that:

--Hightower looks 'heavy' and 'only' played MLB in the 4-3

--Chandler Jones looks 'unspectacular' so far

--Dennard is hard to project at CB due to his small frame that is carrying 'too much weight.' He is 5'10" and 204 lbs, compared to McCourty's 5'11" and 193....

--Dowling looks 'stiff' in the hips, 'lost' and 'rusty'

--Mallett 'has struggled' and 'takes way too long to get rid of the ball'


Going on Bedard's evaluations, we're certainly screwed for our 1st and 2nd yr players this year, as they basically all suck.

 

[Triumph]

Hoyer has proven that he has what it takes to hold a clipboard. Nothing else.

He has less of a resume than Matt Cassel and everyone sees how that trade is turning out. KC got shafted.

 

[Off The Grid]

Quite a tribute to Belichick's coaching and coaches, Brady's mentoring and the Patriot Way, not to mention Hoyer's abilities.

I'd be willing to bet a dinner at Grill 23 with a good bottle of wine that the next long term, starting QB of the Patriots is not on their roster today.

From your Keys to the Gods' EARS, Brother 74!! :rocker:

 

[Snake Eyes]

Hoyer has proven that he has what it takes to hold a clipboard. Nothing else.

He has less of a resume than Matt Cassel and everyone sees how that trade is turning out. KC got shafted.

Yeah, they probably should have rolled the dice in the 1st round on a college QB who never took a snap in the NFL Blaine Gabbert was obviously a brilliant decision by Jacksonvilles GM.

 

[Deus Irae]

Hoyer has proven that he has what it takes to hold a clipboard. Nothing else.

He has less of a resume than Matt Cassel and everyone sees how that trade is turning out. KC got shafted.

Yes, a 2nd for a defender who helped turn around a defense, taught them how to be winners, and got them used to the new system, plus a QB that went to the Pro Bowl for them and got them to the playoffs for the first time in years, is a real way to get "shafted".

:bricks:

 

[patsinthesnow]

Evidence that suggests Hoyer has NFL starting abilities:

1. Enters as 4th string UDFA in camp and beats out Walter, KOC (recent 3rd round choice) to be the Brady backup.

2. He was the backup to Brady his rookie year, the pats only carried two QBs on the roster the whole year, and it was the year after Brady was out for the season. It says something IMO they gave this valuable position to a rookie QB.

3. This will be his 4th straight year being the backup to Brady.

4. He beat out a talented rookie in Mallett to be the backup in 2011, and looks like he'll do so in 2012 as well.

5. The only real game time he had against a team trying was week 17, 2009 vs. the Texans, and I was impressed. With a WR core of Moss, Edelman, and Aiken, he went 8/12 71 yards, and had a 40 yard catch negated towards the end of the game by a penalty. (The 2010 Miami game was good as well, but they mailed it in)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IK there's barely any game film of him to access him, but #1 and #2 tend me to believe he is good.

Depending on Mallett's progress it wouldn't be a bad move to extend him.

 

[patfanken]

Evidence that suggests Hoyer has NFL starting abilities:

1. Enters as 4th string UDFA in camp and beats out Walter, KOC (recent 3rd round choice) to be the Brady backup.

2. He was the backup to Brady his rookie year, the pats only carried two QBs on the roster the whole year, and it was the year after Brady was out for the season. It says something IMO they gave this valuable position to a rookie QB.

3. This will be his 4th straight year being the backup to Brady.

4. He beat out a talented rookie in Mallett to be the backup in 2011, and looks like he'll do so in 2012 as well.

5. The only real game time he had against a team trying was week 17, 2009 vs. the Texans, and I was impressed. With a WR core of Moss, Edelman, and Aiken, he went 8/12 71 yards, and had a 40 yard catch negated towards the end of the game by a penalty. (The 2010 Miami game was good as well, but they mailed it in)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IK there's barely any game film of him to access him, but #1 and #2 tend me to believe he is good.

Depending on Mallett's progress it wouldn't be a bad move to extend him.

Its the lack of game time that mitigates Hoyer's trade value. Its just so hard to evaluate a player when there is nothing to compare him to. I just can't see any GM willing to give up ANY pick to have Hoyer come in and fight for a starting job.

Take Kolb for example. He was the "flavor of the month" when he was in this position, and he had 4 games where he was the starter to evaluate. Flynn with 2 extraordinary starts had to look long and hard to find a home this season.

There are just TOO many questions concerning Hoyer's potential to risk a draft pick, when, even if you love him, you only have to wait 10 months and you can have him for nothing. Frankly there aren't that many teams looking for a QB right now. I'd be interested in seeing who needs a QB right now.

Even if you have an injury situation. Would you give up a draft pick for a huge question mark like Hoyer when you can have a prove starter like McNabb for nothing?

 

[Triumph]

Yeah, they probably should have rolled the dice in the 1st round on a college QB who never took a snap in the NFL Blaine Gabbert was obviously a brilliant decision by Jacksonvilles GM.

Blaine Gabbert has not played a full NFL season as of yet where Cassel is entering his 4th year with KC. After paying him 40 million, the Chiefs still have questions at QB. Cassel is the worst QB in the AFCW.

Like Sanchez, Cassel is in a do or die season. He is a game manager.

 

[Triumph]

Yes, a 2nd for a defender who helped turn around a defense, taught them how to be winners, and got them used to the new system, plus a QB that went to the Pro Bowl for them and got them to the playoffs for the first time in years, is a real way to get "shafted".

:bricks:

The Chiefs have not won a playoff game in 19 years. Cassel really stunk in that playoff game too.

Cant Passel.

 

[lurker1965]

Personally I would not pay that high a price for Hoyer, but I'm not a GM of 31 other teams and I would not overestimate them. Heck, the Bears seemed surprised that Merriweather sucked.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Evidence that suggests Hoyer has NFL starting abilities:

1. Enters as 4th string UDFA in camp and beats out Walter, KOC (recent 3rd round choice) to be the Brady backup.

2. He was the backup to Brady his rookie year, the pats only carried two QBs on the roster the whole year, and it was the year after Brady was out for the season. It says something IMO they gave this valuable position to a rookie QB.

3. This will be his 4th straight year being the backup to Brady.

4. He beat out a talented rookie in Mallett to be the backup in 2011, and looks like he'll do so in 2012 as well.

5. The only real game time he had against a team trying was week 17, 2009 vs. the Texans, and I was impressed. With a WR core of Moss, Edelman, and Aiken, he went 8/12 71 yards, and had a 40 yard catch negated towards the end of the game by a penalty. (The 2010 Miami game was good as well, but they mailed it in)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IK there's barely any game film of him to access him, but #1 and #2 tend me to believe he is good.

Depending on Mallett's progress it wouldn't be a bad move to extend him.

If only it were that simple. He isn't interested in extending. And if he was you'd have to re-evaluate his compete level. These guys all want to start and if they don't believe they can then they are probably right. Last one I can think of who extended past a rookie deal was Sorgi in Indy, and he was gone a year later. Plenty of time to be a career backup after you've tried and failed as a starter... Then you're happy to man the clipboard for several hundred thousand per. Chris Redman, who couldn't make the roster here, is now that guy in Atlanta and happy to not have to sell insurance...

Did you happen to catch Hoyer getting Gronk his league leading yardage at the tail end of the last game of last season...coming in cold off the bench. I guarantee you Bill didn't miss that... It was a test and while the game wasn't in question something that mattered to the team was...and he aced it.