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What Is Our Cap Situation


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Huh?
Hernandez stats took a hit? How?
His catches and yards improved by 60-70%.
You are also incorrect that Hernandez outproduced Gronk 2 years ago.
Hernandez caught 45-563-6 and Gronk was 42-546-10.
Also your conclusion about only so passes to go around at the position is incorrect, as they play at the same time.
They went from a combined 87-1109-16 in 2010 to 169-2237-24
That is doubling their production from 10 to 11, so it is incorrect to say there is a ceiling lower than that.

Both improved on their rookie seasons, but Gronk improved exponentially and some of that was ultimately at Hernandez expense. It's a production based league, unless your 31 and 5'9" playing for a team that doesn't do phony money deals to fluff egos or routinely re-set the positional bar (let alone exponentially as ken is opining they will) as a matter of philosophic principle.

These two kids showed promise in 2010. They delivered on it in 2011. Although Gronk delivered more. The key for both now is to show they can consistently deliver in range. Both have set a high bar, although Gronk's is in the realm of ridiculous. Brady is still on them, his concern being they don't opt to rest on their laurels. Hernandez moreso than Gronk shows an occasional lapse in focus. Production increases this season will be tough to come by if all goes as planned (the improvements to the outside WR component and potentially the emergence of the young RB's and addition of a FB and the transition to larger OLinemen). I think that is all Jason is eluding to. What you did in 2011 won't matter. Remember, it's what you can be expected to do going forward. And sometimes that is mitigated by what they need you to do given their options. But at contract time THIS team won't pull any punches in using that against you. Jason realizes that if you don't. And there is the durability question to still be assessed and projected long term. Revis is caught up in his own overhyped perception. That won't fly or be addressed here. Just ask Asante or Seymour or Branch or Law or Milloy.
 
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People who want to panic and roll out the Brink's truck for a pair of TE's don't generally think through the actual overall roster situation from a cap or cash or leverage standpoint. That TE is the lowest franchise tag position under the present CBA ($5.4M in 2012) and that there are two of them in nearly identical circumstances (age, contract status, impact production) creates the myriad leverage this FO loves. Both also have veteran player agents (Rosenhaus reps Gronk and Dunn - Welker's agent - reps Hernandez) who will be looking to score and realize the early bird will get the worm and a hardline stance will get you tagged, maybe multiple times...
Well, the Prime Minister of Pomposity preaches from the pulpit. (btw, this is less a dig at you Mo, than a chance to use alliteration. ;) ).....but I digress. No one is panicking. We are just speculating what the Pats are going to do with the 20 odd million they are going to have in cap space going into next season. There was no need to talk down to us.....again.

BTW- do you want to bet by the time 2014 rolls around that $5.4MM franchise tag for TE's is going to be a lot closer to $8MM than 5. As the position continues to evolve and the differences between a TE and WR continue to blur, that number is going to skyrocket. Even today it would be hard to describe what Hernandez does as being a TE in the "conventional" sense. I am curious as the the percentage of time Hernandez lined up next to a an OT last season. If it was more than 25% I'd be very surprised.

There will be other factors in play as well including Brady's extension, and the fact that Wilfork and Mankins will be either gone/replaced by younger cheaper talent in 2 or 3 years or playing on reconstructed short leashes when the meat of any TE's deals will likely be hitting the cap.
Wilfolk will probably be thinking about retirement after the 2014 season but Mankins will be here for next 4 seasons easy. But the point is that the Pats will make a decision on what to do with Gronk/Hernandez long before that.

But it's simpler and easier to just shreik get the TE's signed whatever it takes and screw anything else in the process. Who cares that in two or three years we project zero WR's under contract (unless this year's 7th round rookie pans out or Bill's WR drafting prowess suddenly re-emerges after a decade in hiatus), and FA will be devoid of former system savvy veterans, and best case scenario we'll be playing the leverage game with tandem committee RB's looking for their paydays. But then again, the pay the TE's at all costs crowd seems to think production from other positions only limits opportunities for the TE's... as opposed to facilitating it. Here's hoping we never have to test that theory and DC's don't get an opportunity to debunk it.
Mo, the only one "shrieking" here is YOU!

The starting in 2009 the Pats have virtually revamped their roster, and have a lot of young talent that is going to want to paid in their 2nd contract. Lots of them. And the fact they are on a very good team only inflates their potential value on the market (see Mark Anderson and BJGE)

The point of my post was, that although having 20 odd million available next year might SEEM to be a lot of money, and potential high end FA signings might SEEM to be very possible, its a lot more likely that the bulk of that money is going needed to keep our OWN talent rather than going after someone else's.

A 4 year deal for Welker heading into last season would have cost the team less and given them the cap flexibility they crave. Why it didn't happen (and why they chose the 2 year guaranteed approach) is mindboggling. 4 years remains a far better approach even now for the short as well as intermediate long term from a cash and cap standpoint.
I agree on paper. But look at it from Welker's POV. What's the difference between a 2 year guaranteed deal, and a 4 year deal that offers no guarantees after the first 2 years. Everything the Pats have done is to indicate that they feel Welker's shelf life as an elite receiver is 2 years at best, and the only contract that they are going to give Welker that pays him "elite" money beyond those 2 years is through non-guaranteed incentives.

The tradeoff became an early extension for Mayo, but considering what that cost I'm not sure they gained anything in the deal (because he extended at top tier money for the position under an essentially flat cap for more than half of the term of his contract).
I'm not sure I understand this point. It was my understanding that Mayo's extension was for good, but not top end money, and long term the deal favors the Pats....though I could be wrong. But either way I don't get why you mention it here. Unless to point out that the Pats would love to sign Gronk/Hernandez to relatively similar deals sometime in 2012
 
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Both improved on their rookie seasons, but Gronk improved exponentially and some of that was ultimately at Hernandez expense. It's a production based league, unless your 31 and 5'9" playing for a team that doesn't do phony money deals to fluff egos or routinely re-set the positional bar (let alone exponentially as ken is opining they will) as a matter of philosophic principle.
Hey mo. In case you haven't noticed the Pats TE position has produced over 4,000 passing yds, and 40 TDs in just 2 seasons. Well if it wasn't on YOUR radar, it certainly has been noticed by the rest of the league, as teams scramble to try and duplicate the Pats success. Face it mo, the "positional bar" on the TE position is about to be RAISED, whether you OR the Pats like it. Reality is a B!tch.
 
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Well, the Prime Minister of Pomposity preaches from the pulpit. (btw, this is less a dig at you Mo, than a chance to use alliteration. ;) ).....but I digress. No one is panicking. We are just speculating what the Pats are going to do with the 20 odd million they are going to have in cap space going into next season. There was no need to talk down to us.....again.

Just takin' a page out or your jets instructor posting guide.

BTW- do you want to bet by the time 2014 rolls around that $5.4MM franchise tag for TE's is going to be a lot closer to $8MM than 5. As the position continues to evolve and the differences between a TE and WR continue to blur, that number is going to skyrocket. Even today it would be hard to describe what Hernandez does as being a TE in the "conventional" sense. I am curious as the the percentage of time Hernandez lined up next to a an OT last season. If it was more than 25% I'd be very surprised.

I'll take that bet ken because I grasp that the formula is more complicated than it used to be and it takes into account the average of the top 5 salaries over the previous 5 seasons as well as increases in the cap which will have been negligible. See the number will only skyrocket if a whole lot of veteran elite TE's not named Gronkowski and Hernendez suddenly emerge and sign way above market extensions in the next two years and the cap contrary to predictions by those in the know implodes.

Wilfolk will probably be thinking about retirement after the 2014 season but Mankins will be here for next 4 seasons easy. But the point is that the Pats will make a decision on what to do with Gronk/Hernandez long before that.

Mankins is coming off an ACL and is now on the wrong side of 30 just 2 years into a 6 year deal that maxes out in cap hits in 2014 and 2015 (years 4 and 5). Unless they restructure him he has zero dead cap in 2016 at age 34 and just $4M in dead cap that cap be spread over two remaining seasons if he's gone in 2015 at age 33...

Mo, the only one "shrieking" here is YOU!

The starting in 2009 the Pats have virtually revamped their roster, and have a lot of young talent that is going to want to paid in their 2nd contract. Lots of them. And the fact they are on a very good team only inflates their potential value on the market (see Mark Anderson and BJGE)

I see them in Buffalo and Cleveland...

The point of my post was, that although having 20 odd million available next year might SEEM to be a lot of money, and potential high end FA signings might SEEM to be very possible, its a lot more likely that the bulk of that money is going needed to keep our OWN talent rather than going after someone else's.

It may or may not, as we've seen in the past. What we have never seen is it all spent to retain just two players, let alone in the same unit.

I agree on paper. But look at it from Welker's POV. What's the difference between a 2 year guaranteed deal, and a 4 year deal that offers no guarantees after the first 2 years. Everything the Pats have done is to indicate that they feel Welker's shelf life as an elite receiver is 2 years at best, and the only contract that they are going to give Welker that pays him "elite" money beyond those 2 years is through non-guaranteed incentives.

The point is he wants to finish his career here and he reasonable believes it won't be over in 2 seasons. He wants the chance to compete for a reasonable reward if he's right without having to attempt to sell himself on the open market to teams running another scheme or in posession of an inferior QB and coaching staff. He knows the team can always cut him, although generally speaking they persue the tradeoff of more favorable and flexible cap construction in exchange for a little more guaranteed cash. We're treating him like we did Seymour, only not at top tier money and for an even shorter term. The guy you don't trust, although with Seymour their issue was attitude and performance and durability and with Welker there is no hint of that beyond numbers on a calendar. There is as good a shot (if not better) he's still playing and productive for 3 more years (or willing to restructure if he isn't) as there is Mankins, who is 10 months younger, will be in 5.

I'm not sure I understand this point. It was my understanding that Mayo's extension was for good, but not top end money, and long term the deal favors the Pats....though I could be wrong. But either way I don't get why you mention it here. Unless to point out that the Pats would love to sign Gronk/Hernandez to relatively similar deals sometime in 2012

Mayo's deal was for top 3 new money ($9.7M). The fact that it was inked just before the end of a season with one more remaining on his rookie deal that was nothing to sneeze at either, just made it a little more manageable cap wise ($8.8M). The franchise tag for linebackers this season was...$8.8M. Mayo has had 2 outstanding seasons, and 2 injury marred ones that weren't nearly as special. Hopefully he stays healthy for the next 6 seasons...or at least the next 4 since that is when they could walk away from him with negligible dead cap unless they restructure the ****ens out of his deal so he's not battling Mankins for the #2 cap hit on the team for the duration.

Light, Koppen and Warren did early deals as they were intended to be done, at substantial discounts. So did Brady until he was a decade into his career. And even then his new money ($18M) rolled into such a bargain deal ($10M) that it's combined average ($15.8M) remained as manageable as could be (until they recently chose to restructure it).
 
Hey mo. In case you haven't noticed the Pats TE position has produced over 4,000 passing yds, and 40 TDs in just 2 seasons. Well if it wasn't on YOUR radar, it certainly has been noticed by the rest of the league, as teams scramble to try and duplicate the Pats success. Face it mo, the "positional bar" on the TE position is about to be RAISED, whether you OR the Pats like it. Reality is a B!tch.

Reality in the NFL is a ***** in that it's a copycat league only until some coaching genius debunks the perception of reality and everyone is scrambling to uncover or replicate the next indefensible or unbeatable trend to get ahead of the curve.

And you fail to factor in they are doing it backed by a HOF QB who won't be here forever according to most reports...and under the added auspices of playing alongside perhaps the bet slot WR in history. This offense has found ways to produce more not to mention achieve more with virtually no TE's on the roster...
 
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The situation doesn't seem that bad for next year. If the young 4 at CB pan out, we can afford to let Arrington go. (another solid year from him and he'll be overpaid anyway, teams spend stupid on CBs)

Chung is whatever. If he gets overpaid somewhere else, his loss won't be that bad. That just leaves Vollmer and extending the TEs.
 
Well I learned one thing from your post. I didn't know that the franchise tag was calculated by using the average salaries of the top 5 contract going back FIVE years. If its true, whoever negotiated THAT clause should be fired immediately. That will certainly slow down the rise in the TE franchise number, but it won't stop it.

Granted Gronk and Hernandez's contracts will force it higher, but I also think that given how the league likes to copycat, other lesser TE's will also benefit over the next 2 years as well.. But Gronk and Hernandez will still lead the way. I mean 40 TDs in 2 season from just 2 guys. I doubt there have been any 2 man WR combinations that put up those kinds of numbers over 2 years.... and these guys still have upside, They are still just going into their 3rd season....incredible.

BTW- Here's a thought. IF you had to chose one player to give 7-9MM/yr starting in 2013 who would you rather have, Welker or Hernandez?
 
Reality in the NFL is a ***** in that it's a copycat league only until some coaching genius debunks the perception of reality and everyone is scrambling to uncover or replicate the next indefensible or unbeatable trend to get ahead of the curve.
I have no doubt that within 2 seasons defenses will start to catch up.

And you fail to factor in they are doing it backed by a HOF QB who won't be here forever according to most reports...and under the added auspices of playing alongside perhaps the bet slot WR in history. This offense has found ways to produce more not to mention achieve more with virtually no TE's on the roster...
The Brady point is irrelevant. He is going to be playing here for the next 3-4 seasons at a high level, so both contracts will have to dealt with, with Brady in the Picture. And while having Brady as your QB certainly will enhance any receiver's numbers. (remember he made Reche freakin' Caldwell into a #1 WR), setting the "market" will be determined by the receivers' numbers, not Brady's
 
Well I learned one thing from your post. I didn't know that the franchise tag was calculated by using the average salaries of the top 5 contract going back FIVE years. If its true, whoever negotiated THAT clause should be fired immediately.

Ken, FYI it's not like the negotiators just overlooked that little point. :) It was an explicit concession, largely to deal with some unrealistic balloon years teams like the Redskins had worked into contracts for an uncapped 2010:

New wrinkles to franchise tag, salary cap happened for reason - NFL.com
 
I think Gronkowski and Hernandez' extensions will be pretty neat things to watch play out. Both need a good season next year to get top dollar but its going to be difficult for both to have great statistical years at the same time because there is only so many passes to go around to the position. Two years ago Hernandez looked like he was going to be the guy with Gronkowski being a TD target. Gronkowski exploded last season and Hernandez' stats took a hit.

Whichever has the big number season then has to battle the TE designation. I think you have to go back and look at Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten, and Antonio Gates when they got their biggest contracts and see where they ranked compared to top wideouts at the time. TE is not a premium paid position and no matter what these two do its hard to imagine them being paid like Andre Johnson or someone like that. My gut is that a top TE is going to earn around what maybe the 10th WR gets.

I cant see the Pats budging on those issues because they never do. The jets have a similar problem with Revis who is the best at the position but wants to be paid like a pass rusher. The position just doesnt hold that kind of value.[/QUOTE]

What are you talking about? Hernandez had way more yards and 1 more TD. He didn't drop off by any means.

who gives a **** about the Jets and Revis?
 
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Well I learned one thing from your post. I didn't know that the franchise tag was calculated by using the average salaries of the top 5 contract going back FIVE years. If its true, whoever negotiated THAT clause should be fired immediately. That will certainly slow down the rise in the TE franchise number, but it won't stop it.

Granted Gronk and Hernandez's contracts will force it higher, but I also think that given how the league likes to copycat, other lesser TE's will also benefit over the next 2 years as well.. But Gronk and Hernandez will still lead the way. I mean 40 TDs in 2 season from just 2 guys. I doubt there have been any 2 man WR combinations that put up those kinds of numbers over 2 years.... and these guys still have upside, They are still just going into their 3rd season....incredible.

BTW- Here's a thought. IF you had to chose one player to give 7-9MM/yr starting in 2013 who would you rather have, Welker or Hernandez?

The beauty and reality of this capped league (that you obviously don't grasp) is I don't have to make that choice. There are a myriad of ways around it, one of which I'd personally already have put in place via a 4 year extension for Welker starting last season in the final year of his former deal. Can still do it, it will just project to cost about 10-15% more per year in average against the cap because I can't spread the cost over 5 years and the market shifted slightly in the interim based on a handful of overpayments by the usual suspects. Welker can still get a fair deal though that results in him being paid what he's worth, including the potential to lower his cap hit in 2014 and/or 2015 if he isn't. And the since the TE's are both already signed through 2013 I don't have to start to do anything with either of them and certainly not with both. One can always be tagged in 2014 and even 2015 and (god forbit) even tagged and traded for a lot more than Welker would bring in trade. And one could also be given an incremental, short term deal at top dollar that averages a lot less agaisnt the cap because of their 2 remaining seasons (after which the tag option would again remain).

There are just lots of options, ken, and it's not purely the one or the other decision you keep trying to make it out to be.
 
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