What Is Our Cap Situation

[mgteich]

I've been away for awhile. Where do we stand? I think that Hightower and Bequette are the only unsigned draftees. What are the best sources for our current cap info?

The last I looked, we were in reasonable shape with $6.6M carried over for 2011 and the ability to borrow for 2013, 2014 and 2015 if needed.

 

[patchick]

The keeper of jetscap.com (an occasional poster here) is doing a great job with the whole division this offseason. Here's his Pats page:

New England Patriots Salary Cap 2012

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

What are the best sources for our current cap info?

.

The next source

 

[patfanken]

Jason has us at almost $13M under the cap....and we will need every dollar going forward. Next year we are going to have a number of guys who will be going into their contract year. But perhaps the biggest concern would be to extend Gronk/Hernandez. If the Pats want to avoid having to spend top dollar, next season would be the prime to time to work out a deal for either or both. It isn't going to be easy given it will take close to $18-20MM/yr to do both.

That's a lot of money to tie up for 2 receivers, neither of whom are WRs. I'm sure that's a key reason the Pats can't/won't make a long term deal with Welker. If they did it on his terms, they be looking at tying up approximately 20-24% of their cap space on 3 receivers. It ain't gonna happen.

So even though the Pats can roll over the $13MM into next season, and will get rid of most of the $11MM they have in dead money, That $20-24MM might look good right now, but I bet most of it is going to spent very quickly

 

[jmt57]

Next year there will need to be some major contract restructures, with or without Welker. Brady restructuring helped the Pats a great deal this year, but in both 2013 and in 2014 his cap number is $21.8 million. Then you have Vince Wilfork at $10.6 and $11.6, and Logan Mankins at $10 and $10.5. Now we hear that the big cap increases that had been expected may not be coming after all, and the cap will remain relatively flat. That means that about one-third of the cap as of now is allocated to just three players - and if Welker does get an extension it may be about 40% of the cap going to four players.

Floyd Reese is going to have a major challenge on his hands.

 

[patsfan13]

Next year there will need to be some major contract restructures, with or without Welker. Brady restructuring helped the Pats a great deal this year, but in both 2013 and in 2014 his cap number is $21.8 million. Then you have Vince Wilfork at $10.6 and $11.6, and Logan Mankins at $10 and $10.5. Now we hear that the big cap increases that had been expected may not be coming after all, and the cap will remain relatively flat. That means that about one-third of the cap as of now is allocated to just three players - and if Welker does get an extension it may be about 40% of the cap going to four players.

Floyd Reese is going to have a major challenge on his hands.

There will be some dead cap hits coming off the books though for Bodden, Light, Ocho(?) and so on.

My guess is that they are already looking at the 'big picture' going forward.

 

[Urgent]

They will need to bundle some of that available 2012 cap space forward.

They should call the Cowboys and Redskins for advice.

But seriously, looking at some roster bonuses or other provisions within the CBA will be critical to retaining a strong team in 2013.

 

[everlong]

I can't believe some of the names still with dead money and especially Ty Warren.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

The Pats are in pretty good shape even with Brady at $22M next year. $99M against the cap ($124ish) so $25M under plus $14M or so to rollover. And 48 players under contract. The guys they have to be concerned with not named Welker are Vollmer (who may have to wait until they are more confident he can be durable), Chung and Arrington. They are likely why you won't see any 2012 deal for a TE, although if they can't get one or two of those guys done they may shift focus to one of the TE's after Thanksgiving - as they did shifting from Welker to Mayo. There is plenty of cash and cap for Welker. And Brady's cap hit won't remain as is. While they could restructure one more time doing so would set them up in a bad position leverage (including tag cost) wise. That is why I think he gets an extension heading into 2013. And it will make his cap hits much more manageable down the home stretch - the hits for which will not be felt until the cap has risen due to the TV deals and getting past the borrowing stretch they are currently undergoing to prop it up.

 

[supafly]

The Pats are in pretty good shape even with Brady at $22M next year. $99M against the cap ($124ish) so $25M under plus $14M or so to rollover. And 48 players under contract. The guys they have to be concerned with not named Welker are Vollmer (who may have to wait until they are more confident he can be durable), Chung and Arrington. They are likely why you won't see any 2012 deal for a TE, although if they can't get one or two of those guys done they may shift focus to one of the TE's after Thanksgiving - as they did shifting from Welker to Mayo. There is plenty of cash and cap for Welker. And Brady's cap hit won't remain as is. While they could restructure one more time doing so would set them up in a bad position leverage (including tag cost) wise. That is why I think he gets an extension heading into 2013. And it will make his cap hits much more manageable down the home stretch - the hits for which will not be felt until the cap has risen due to the TV deals and getting past the borrowing stretch they are currently undergoing to prop it up.

I agree very much about Brady getting an extension next year, as that would certainly be in their best interest.

I also think that the high majority of the money that we are under this season gets carried over for next year, when Chung, Arrington, and Vollmer are due (as you stated). Couple those players with the ongoing Welker saga, and the potential to possibly save a bit by re-upping one of the TE's a yr early, and they will indeed have their work cut out for them.

Of course the positive in all of this is that the front office and BB are one of the best in the league and quite rehersed in dealing with such issues.

I'm certainly in agreement with patsfan13 in regards to them being ready for the 'bigger picture,' as you can take that to the bank for sure.

The 2 best things to happen for the improvement of this situation this current season is to somehow extend Welker at a good price, and also to save as much money heading into next season as possible. I don't see extensions coming for either Chung or Vollmer until they can prove durability, at least not until very late in the season anyway.

 

[patman52]

Jason has us at almost $13M under the cap....and we will need every dollar going forward. Next year we are going to have a number of guys who will be going into their contract year. But perhaps the biggest concern would be to extend Gronk/Hernandez. If the Pats want to avoid having to spend top dollar, next season would be the prime to time to work out a deal for either or both. It isn't going to be easy given it will take close to $18-20MM/yr to do both.

That's a lot of money to tie up for 2 receivers, neither of whom are WRs. I'm sure that's a key reason the Pats can't/won't make a long term deal with Welker. If they did it on his terms, they be looking at tying up approximately 20-24% of their cap space on 3 receivers. It ain't gonna happen.

So even though the Pats can roll over the $13MM into next season, and will get rid of most of the $11MM they have in dead money, That $20-24MM might look good right now, but I bet most of it is going to spent very quickly

Ken no way does it cost that much for two TE. Finley got 7.5 as a FA, and you thing both of these guys will get 20% more with a year to go on their contract. Hernandez has not even made 1 mill for himself yet. You dont think he would sign next off season for 4 years 25 mill and 12 mill in his pocket and him being a FA again at 27 YO. I do. Same with Gronk, only say 5 years 40 mil with 1/2 up front. he would be a FA again at age 29.

These guys will be set for life and be FA again with a chance to hit it big again. Put your self in Gronks shoes. Hernandez takes the pats offer of 6.5 a year making him the #2 paid TE behind Finley, a full year before he becomes a FA. Gronk then has to play two more years to be a FA for a total of 6 mil in salary which include the tag year. so instead of being a FA again at 29 he becomes a FA again at 31 which limits his ability to earn a big 2nd FA payday
all the while risking his career for an average of 3 mill a year. it could get even worse for him if they tag him twice the 3rd year he will play for the 9 mill that you have allocated for him next year.

 

[Gostkowski for 3]

Can anyone from the Rochester, NH area explain what "Rod Road" is in reference to?

 

[patfanken]

Ken no way does it cost that much for two TE. Finley got 7.5 as a FA, and you thing both of these guys will get 20% more with a year to go on their contract. Hernandez has not even made 1 mill for himself yet. You dont think he would sign next off season for 4 years 25 mill and 12 mill in his pocket and him being a FA again at 27 YO. I do. Same with Gronk, only say 5 years 40 mil with 1/2 up front. he would be a FA again at age 29.

These guys will be set for life and be FA again with a chance to hit it big again. Put your self in Gronks shoes. Hernandez takes the pats offer of 6.5 a year making him the #2 paid TE behind Finley, a full year before he becomes a FA. Gronk then has to play two more years to be a FA for a total of 6 mil in salary which include the tag year. so instead of being a FA again at 29 he becomes a FA again at 31 which limits his ability to earn a big 2nd FA payday
all the while risking his career for an average of 3 mill a year. it could get even worse for him if they tag him twice the 3rd year he will play for the 9 mill that you have allocated for him next year.

You are dreaming Patman. Yes Finley took $7.5MM, but his production was about HALF what Gronk put up. There will be no way that Gronk gets less than 9MM/yr and more likely 10.

Hernandez production is more like Finley's, but some say that HE's the more unique talent. There has already been a thread where this has been a discussion. Imagine his production if he wasn't having to share the ball with Gronk and Welker. He's not just simply a TE, but someone who can line up in the backfield, slot, AND wide - If the Pats aren't willing to pay him 8-10MM/yr. some other team will.

Don't get me wrong, I really hope YOU are right. But the way these guys have performed and the numbers they've put up in just their first 2 years is astonishing. I wonder how may PLAYERS, let alone TE's have ever had 28 TD's in their first 2 years. AND their value only increases as more teams want to duplicate the Pats success with the 2 TE offense. Like I said, I hope you are right, but....

 

[IllegalContact]

the cap situation is rough

 

[MoLewisrocks]

People who want to panic and roll out the Brink's truck for a pair of TE's don't generally think through the actual overall roster situation from a cap or cash or leverage standpoint. That TE is the lowest franchise tag position under the present CBA ($5.4M in 2012) and that there are two of them in nearly identical circumstances (age, contract status, impact production) creates the myriad leverage this FO loves. Both also have veteran player agents (Rosenhaus reps Gronk and Dunn - Welker's agent - reps Hernandez) who will be looking to score and realize the early bird will get the worm and a hardline stance will get you tagged, maybe multiple times...

There will be other factors in play as well including Brady's extension, and the fact that Wilfork and Mankins will be either gone/replaced by younger cheaper talent in 2 or 3 years or playing on reconstructed short leashes when the meat of any TE's deals will likely be hitting the cap. But it's simpler and easier to just shreik get the TE's signed whatever it takes and screw anything else in the process. Who cares that in two or three years we project zero WR's under contract (unless this year's 7th round rookie pans out or Bill's WR drafting prowess suddenly re-emerges after a decade in hiatus), and FA will be devoid of former system savvy veterans, and best case scenario we'll be playing the leverage game with tandem committee RB's looking for their paydays. But then again, the pay the TE's at all costs crowd seems to think production from other positions only limits opportunities for the TE's... as opposed to facilitating it. Here's hoping we never have to test that theory and DC's don't get an opportunity to debunk it.

A 4 year deal for Welker heading into last season would have cost the team less and given them the cap flexibility they crave. Why it didn't happen (and why they chose the 2 year guaranteed approach) is mindboggling. 4 years remains a far better approach even now for the short as well as intermediate long term from a cash and cap standpoint. The tradeoff became an early extension for Mayo, but considering what that cost I'm not sure they gained anything in the deal (because he extended at top tier money for the position under an essentially flat cap for more than half of the term of his contract).

 

[MoLewisrocks]

You are dreaming Patman. Yes Finley took $7.5MM, but his production was about HALF what Gronk put up. There will be no way that Gronk gets less than 9MM/yr and more likely 10.

Hernandez production is more like Finley's, but some say that HE's the more unique talent. There has already been a thread where this has been a discussion. Imagine his production if he wasn't having to share the ball with Gronk and Welker. He's not just simply a TE, but someone who can line up in the backfield, slot, AND wide - If the Pats aren't willing to pay him 8-10MM/yr. some other team will.

Don't get me wrong, I really hope YOU are right. But the way these guys have performed and the numbers they've put up in just their first 2 years is astonishing. I wonder how may PLAYERS, let alone TE's have ever had 28 TD's in their first 2 years. AND their value only increases as more teams want to duplicate the Pats success with the 2 TE offense. Like I said, I hope you are right, but....

The difference is Finley's deal is just a stop gap, prove it 2 year deal the Pack can walk away from in 1 year if he doesn't represent value. He wouldn't have seen that money on a long term deal. He was also already a FA and could have been tagged for $5.4M at the time (and was planning an assault on his TE designation and probably a holdout). He got a whole $375K to avoid or at least postpone the headache.

Neither Hernandez nor Gronkowski will be in that position before 2014... Maybe the team offers them a two year deal then, too. They seem to be suddenly in vogue. In which case Welker could be off the books at less dead cap than Warren generated or a role player restructured down to peanuts by then, so his deal really wouldn't impact them. Hey, then they could always test your productivity theory without being wed to or crippled by it.

The deal is officially two years for about $15 million, but it is more like a one-year deal worth $5.75 million with an option to add a more lucrative second season. The details: Finley will receive $5.75 million in 2012 and then be due a $4.45 million roster bonus soon after the 2013 free-agent market begins.

And PS...not many teams have TFB at QB and while a lot of team might covet a particular TE or tandem of them they don't have the means to utilize them nearly as well as Brady has. Everyone here is a system player to some extent...

 

[jason423]

The difference is Finley's deal is just a stop gap, prove it 2 year deal the Pack can walk away from in 1 year if he doesn't represent value. He wouldn't have seen that money on a long term deal. He was also already a FA and could have been tagged for $5.4M at the time (and was planning an assault on his TE designation and probably a holdout). He got a whole $375K to avoid or at least postpone the headache.

Neither Hernandez nor Gronkowski will be in that position before 2014... Maybe the team offers them a two year deal then, too. They seem to be suddenly in vogue. In which case Welker could be off the books at less dead cap than Warren generated or a role player restructured down to peanuts by then, so his deal really wouldn't impact them. Hey, then they could always test your productivity theory without being wed to or crippled by it.



And PS...not many teams have TFB at QB and while a lot of team might covet a particular TE or tandem of them they don't have the means to utilize them nearly as well as Brady has. Everyone here is a system player to some extent...

I think Gronkowski and Hernandez' extensions will be pretty neat things to watch play out. Both need a good season next year to get top dollar but its going to be difficult for both to have great statistical years at the same time because there is only so many passes to go around to the position. Two years ago Hernandez looked like he was going to be the guy with Gronkowski being a TD target. Gronkowski exploded last season and Hernandez' stats took a hit.

Whichever has the big number season then has to battle the TE designation. I think you have to go back and look at Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten, and Antonio Gates when they got their biggest contracts and see where they ranked compared to top wideouts at the time. TE is not a premium paid position and no matter what these two do its hard to imagine them being paid like Andre Johnson or someone like that. My gut is that a top TE is going to earn around what maybe the 10th WR gets.

I cant see the Pats budging on those issues because they never do. The jets have a similar problem with Revis who is the best at the position but wants to be paid like a pass rusher. The position just doesnt hold that kind of value.

 

[Ring 6]

I think Gronkowski and Hernandez' extensions will be pretty neat things to watch play out. Both need a good season next year to get top dollar but its going to be difficult for both to have great statistical years at the same time because there is only so many passes to go around to the position. Two years ago Hernandez looked like he was going to be the guy with Gronkowski being a TD target. Gronkowski exploded last season and Hernandez' stats took a hit.

Huh?
Hernandez stats took a hit? How?
His catches and yards improved by 60-70%.
You are also incorrect that Hernandez outproduced Gronk 2 years ago.
Hernandez caught 45-563-6 and Gronk was 42-546-10.
Also your conclusion about only so passes to go around at the position is incorrect, as they play at the same time.
They went from a combined 87-1109-16 in 2010 to 169-2237-24
That is doubling their production from 10 to 11, so it is incorrect to say there is a ceiling lower than that.

 

[mgteich]

1) Gronkowski is the 3rd most important player on the team, going forward. Planning will include when and how to sign him to a long-term deal. It is likely we will TRY to extend him late this year or early next.

2) Hernandez is not as pressing an issue. Many events can intervene before the team give Hernandez top dollar. Certainly the franchise tag will seem to be an option.

BOTTOM LINE

Gronkowski is a special case to be planned for, like Brady or Wilfork.

Hernandez is a very valuable player who will be a free agent in 2014, and who could be a franchisee even then. The team will re-assess, but it seems that there will be lots of competition for cap space, and for the money that would be required to sign Hernandez.

Given our WR situation, I could see Hernandez being actually list by the team as a wide receiver in 2013.

 

[Rob0729]

1) Gronkowski is the 3rd most important player on the team, going forward. Planning will include when and how to sign him to a long-term deal. It is likely we will TRY to extend him late this year or early next.

2) Hernandez is not as pressing an issue. Many events can intervene before the team give Hernandez top dollar. Certainly the franchise tag will seem to be an option.

BOTTOM LINE

Gronkowski is a special case to be planned for, like Brady or Wilfork.

Hernandez is a very valuable player who will be a free agent in 2014, and who could be a franchisee even then. The team will re-assess, but it seems that there will be lots of competition for cap space, and for the money that would be required to sign Hernandez.

Given our WR situation, I could see Hernandez being actually list by the team as a wide receiver in 2013.

I agree that Gronk will be the top priority and could be locked up as soon as this preseason.

As to Hernandez, I think he will be here at least until 2015 because he will be franchised in 2014. I think it is possible that the Pats give him a long term deal even if they have to pay because the rules are making this league a very TE heavy league. You can't hit guys over the middle like you used to and that means that TE numbers are only going to get better.