Make or break year for Chung?

[supafly]

When Matt Light was interviewed a few weeks ago and discussed the Pats' defense, he singled out Chung along with Mayo and Wilfork as being the "heart and soul of the defense":

BostonHerald.com - Blogs: The Blitz» Blog Archive » Matt Light discusses how Patriots can improve on defense

It's not clear whether that is just Light's personal view, or whether it is reflective of how the organization views Chung. But it does suggest that the Pats may have a different appreciation of what Chung brings than many of the people on this board - just as the organization clearly values Jerod Mayo to a greater extent than most fans. I'm not saying it's right or wrong, but if the team shares Matt Light's view that Chung is part of the "heart and soul" of the defense then they may value him more highly than we necessarily would predict.

I was a bit surprised when Devin McCourty was elected a team captain over Chung last year. In retrospect, it may have been too much responsibility too soon for McCourty. I'll be curious to see whether McCourty remains a team captain this year or whether Chung takes over that role. That could be an indicator of how the team views him going into his contract year.

Certainly good points. We've seen plenty of instances where the team has felt differently than many here, and this could possibly be one more example.

Wilfork>Mayo>Chung = strength up the middle of the heart of the defense, but he certainly does need to take another step or two. The defense improved significantly and obviously that was a product of several different choices, but seeing Chung add so much at the end of the year suprised me in a pleasant way.

If he can stay a bit healthier and improve on his pass defense, then he is certainly one of the promising young players on the team heading forward into the future. The problem is that he hasn't really done either one as of yet, at least not to enough of a level to warrant a decent kind of deal.

I really would like to have him back, but he's one of those questionable kind of players that I have a hard time figuring out as far as potential compensation. Luckily, I don't have to make those kinds of decisions. Right now I wouldn't give him much more than 4-5 million per, but that could certainly change with a good 'prove it' contract year.

 

[mcsully]

While Chung is a good player when healthy.. He's not worth that amt of money, not even close..

 

[randomk1]

The D started playing alot better with Chung/Spikes in the lineup. I also don't see him asking for some sick amount of money.

 

[supafly]

The D started playing alot better with Chung/Spikes in the lineup. I also don't see him asking for some sick amount of money.

I don't either, but if the quoted "5-7 million" is anywhere close then there could be potential problems that would allow him to walk in free agency.

Another possibility is that he could have a much better year, durability or talent-wise, which would also cause his asking price to increase to a point that is out of the team's budget.

I really hope that he stays and builds on what he has started here so far.

Vollmer, Welker, and Chung will be 3 important names to watch over the course of the season and as we head into the FA period. Hopefully we can retain at least 2 of them.

 

[Triumph]

Chung is not worth 5 - 7 million.

He isnt a complete Safety and stinks in coverage.

 

[JackBauer]

Coverage is certainly not Chung's forte, but it doesn't need to be as long as he's not playing next to James Ihedigbo.

If he can show some semblance of durability this season, I think he's a definite priority given the dearth of competent safety play around the league.

 

[mayoclinic]

The D started playing alot better with Chung/Spikes in the lineup. I also don't see him asking for some sick amount of money.

James Sanders was re-signed to a 3-year $9M deal in 2009. Steve Gregory was signed to a 3 year $7.05M deal this year. Chung will clearly end up with a higher deal than either. My guess is that BB views him as a "core" player on defense and the quarterback of the secondary. I wouldn't be surprised to see something in the range of what Leigh Bodden got in 2010 ($22M/4 years).

 

[Rob0729]

First, Chung is far better in coverage than people give him credit for. He is no Ed Reed by any stretch of the imagination, but he is decent at it.

Second, safeties salaries are going to skyrocket over the next few years. If you haven't noticed, there are very few good safeties in the league. Also, with the emergence of the TEs, safeties are more important to defenses than ever.

Third, just because Chung is asking for something, it doesn't mean that the Pats or anyone else is going to pay it... Or that Chung even expects to get it. You ask for the world and settle for less.

I hate to say it, but with so many safeties franchised this year looking for new deals, the top end money for safeties are going to rise exponentially either this year or free agency next year. It could be that $5-7 million is a reasonable price for a safety in the next year or two.

 

[Ron Sellers]

The franchise tag is based on the five highest paid players at a position, and the value for a franchise tagged safety was $6.2 million in 2012. Patrick Chung is good enough to be a starting safety in the NFL, but he is not good enough to be considered one of the five best safeties in the league; therefore, the '$5 to $7 million' estimated value seems to be too high.

Here are the recent contracts for veteran AFC safeties who start or get a large portion of snaps for their teams:

• Eric Smith (contract signed in 2011): 3 years, $7.5m; $800k signing bonus; $700k, $3m, $3m base salaries; cap #s of $1.5, $3.85, $3.6
• Jim Leonhard (2009): 3 yrs, $5.875; $1.0 sb; $1.2, $1.575, $2.075 base; $1.58, $1.96, 2.46 cap#
• Yeremiah Bell (2009): 4 yrs, $20,0; $6.0 sb; $2.55, $1.85, $3.7, $4.3 base; $4.05, $3.35, $5.2, $5.8 cap#
• Yeremiah Bell (2012): 1 yr, $1,400,000
• George Wilson (2009): 1 yr, $1,010,000
• George Wilson (2010): 1 yr, $1,759,000
• George Wilson (2011): 3 yrs, $7.05; $2.0 sb; $1.03, $1.73, $2.0 base; $1.72, $2.67, 2.7 cap#
• Bernard Pollard (2009): 1 yr, $535,000
• Bernard Pollard (2010): 1 yr, $2,521,000
• Bernard Pollard (2011): 2 yrs, $2.735; $800k bonuses; $985k, $1.25 base
• Bernard Pollard (2012): 4 yrs, $12.3; $3.0 sb; $700k, $2.0, $2.8, $2.8 base; $1.95, $3.25, $3.55, $3.55 cap#
• Ryan Clark (2010): 4 yrs, $17m; $4.5 sb; $2.25, $1.0, $3.0, $3.5 base; $3.0, $2.25, $4.25, $4.75 cap#
• Jason Allen (2012): 2 yrs, $8,200,000
• Danieal Manning (2011): 4 yrs, $20.0; $5.0 sb; $3.0, $3.5, $4.0, $4.5 base; $4.4, $4.9, $5.4, $5.9 cap#
• Jordan Babineaux (2012): 2 yrs, $3.2; $400k sb; $1.2, $1.6 base
• Dawan Landry (2012): 5 yrs, $27.5; $10.5 guaranteed; $1.85, $5.35, $5.35, $5.45 base
• Antoine Bethea (2010): 4 yrs, $27.0; $18.0 guaranteed
• Tom Zbikowski (2012): 3 yrs, $5.5; $1.0 sb; $0.7, $1.5, $2.025 base; $1.03, $1.83, $2.36 cap#
• Eric Berry (2010): 5 yrs, $60m, $34m guaranteed; $3.3, $3.25, $4.84, $7.01, $8.42, $5.16 base
• Eric Weddle (2011): 5 yrs, $40m, $19m guaranteed; $13m sb; $1.0, $5.0, $6.0, $7.5, $7.5 base; $3.6, $7.6, $8.6, $10.1, $10.1 cap#
• Atari Bigby (2012): 1 year, $2,500,000
• Bob Sanders (2011): 1 year, $2,000,000; $1m sb and $1m base
• Michael Huff (2011): 4 yrs, $32m, $16m guaranteed; $7.3m sb; $685k, $700k, $4.0, $4.0 base; $2.51, $4.96, $8.26, $8.26 cap#
• Steve Gregory (2012): 3 yrs, $8.5m, $3.35 guaranteed; $2.5 sb; $750k, $1.25, $2.25 base; $1.68, $2.18, $3.18 cap#

So where does Chung fit in? Beneath players like Eric Berry and Dawan Landry, but above someone like Atari Bigby or George Wilson.

Perhaps a contract like Bernard Pollard received would be a decent benchmark: four years for over $12 million, with a $3 million signing bonus and cap numbers in the $3+ million range after a cap-friendly first year.

 

[mayoclinic]

The franchise tag is based on the five highest paid players at a position, and the value for a franchise tagged safety was $6.2 million in 2012. Patrick Chung is good enough to be a starting safety in the NFL, but he is not good enough to be considered one of the five best safeties in the league; therefore, the '$5 to $7 million' estimated value seems to be too high.

Here are the recent contracts for veteran AFC safeties who start or get a large portion of snaps for their teams:

• Eric Smith (contract signed in 2011): 3 years, $7.5m; $800k signing bonus; $700k, $3m, $3m base salaries; cap #s of $1.5, $3.85, $3.6
• Jim Leonhard (2009): 3 yrs, $5.875; $1.0 sb; $1.2, $1.575, $2.075 base; $1.58, $1.96, 2.46 cap#
• Yeremiah Bell (2009): 4 yrs, $20,0; $6.0 sb; $2.55, $1.85, $3.7, $4.3 base; $4.05, $3.35, $5.2, $5.8 cap#
• Yeremiah Bell (2012): 1 yr, $1,400,000
• George Wilson (2009): 1 yr, $1,010,000
• George Wilson (2010): 1 yr, $1,759,000
• George Wilson (2011): 3 yrs, $7.05; $2.0 sb; $1.03, $1.73, $2.0 base; $1.72, $2.67, 2.7 cap#
• Bernard Pollard (2009): 1 yr, $535,000
• Bernard Pollard (2010): 1 yr, $2,521,000
• Bernard Pollard (2011): 2 yrs, $2.735; $800k bonuses; $985k, $1.25 base
• Bernard Pollard (2012): 4 yrs, $12.3; $3.0 sb; $700k, $2.0, $2.8, $2.8 base; $1.95, $3.25, $3.55, $3.55 cap#
• Ryan Clark (2010): 4 yrs, $17m; $4.5 sb; $2.25, $1.0, $3.0, $3.5 base; $3.0, $2.25, $4.25, $4.75 cap#
• Jason Allen (2012): 2 yrs, $8,200,000
• Danieal Manning (2011): 4 yrs, $20.0; $5.0 sb; $3.0, $3.5, $4.0, $4.5 base; $4.4, $4.9, $5.4, $5.9 cap#
• Jordan Babineaux (2012): 2 yrs, $3.2; $400k sb; $1.2, $1.6 base
• Dawan Landry (2012): 5 yrs, $27.5; $10.5 guaranteed; $1.85, $5.35, $5.35, $5.45 base
• Antoine Bethea (2010): 4 yrs, $27.0; $18.0 guaranteed
• Tom Zbikowski (2012): 3 yrs, $5.5; $1.0 sb; $0.7, $1.5, $2.025 base; $1.03, $1.83, $2.36 cap#
• Eric Berry (2010): 5 yrs, $60m, $34m guaranteed; $3.3, $3.25, $4.84, $7.01, $8.42, $5.16 base
• Eric Weddle (2011): 5 yrs, $40m, $19m guaranteed; $13m sb; $1.0, $5.0, $6.0, $7.5, $7.5 base; $3.6, $7.6, $8.6, $10.1, $10.1 cap#
• Atari Bigby (2012): 1 year, $2,500,000
• Bob Sanders (2011): 1 year, $2,000,000; $1m sb and $1m base
• Michael Huff (2011): 4 yrs, $32m, $16m guaranteed; $7.3m sb; $685k, $700k, $4.0, $4.0 base; $2.51, $4.96, $8.26, $8.26 cap#
• Steve Gregory (2012): 3 yrs, $8.5m, $3.35 guaranteed; $2.5 sb; $750k, $1.25, $2.25 base; $1.68, $2.18, $3.18 cap#

So where does Chung fit in? Beneath players like Eric Berry and Dawan Landry, but above someone like Atari Bigby or George Wilson.

Perhaps a contract like Bernard Pollard received would be a decent benchmark: four years for over $12 million, with a $3 million signing bonus and cap numbers in the $3+ million range after a cap-friendly first year.

The Dawan Landry contract is a bit tricky, as I believe that Chung is a better player. I'm guessing something close to that may be likely. Tyvon Branch, Michael Griffin and Dashon Goldson all got the franchise tag in 2012. Their long term deals could set the market for safeties. PFT's Evan Silva reports that the 49ers are unlikely to meet Goldson's demands for money comparable to what Eric Weddle got ($40M/5 years):

Niners unwilling to meet Goldson’s asking price | ProFootballTalk

I don't think that Bernard Pollard money is going to do it for Chung, who is a much better player. But $25M/5 years with $10M guaranteed might be in the right range., depending on how this year goes.

 

[RobertWeathers]

If Chung plays 15 or so games, puts forth the kind of year he had in 2010 and in the playoffs this past season, he deserves a decent next-contract. Not sure what he deserves but a 3-4 year deal sounds about right...