As per Vegas, Pats and Packers will go undefeated in '12

[thenepatsrule]

Las Vegas now has point spreads for 240 regular season games - Yahoo! Sports

New England Patriots (-6.5) at Tennessee Titans
Arizona Cardinals (+13) at New England Patriots
New England Patriots (-1.5) at Baltimore Ravens
New England Patriots (-5.5) at Buffalo Bills
Denver Broncos (+7) at New England Patriots
New England Patriots (-6) at Seattle Seahawks
New York Jets (+8) at New England Patriots
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I would rather like to see them go 18-1 - One regular season loss and SB win. :rocker::rocker:

 

[TyronePoole]

being favored in every game does not mean Vegas thinks they will go undefeated

if you are an 80% favorite in every game over the course of 10 games you would be projected to lose 2 (for example)

 

[BradyManny]

I would rather like to see them go 18-1 - One regular season loss and SB win. :rocker::rocker:

As long as they win the last NFL game of the year, I don't care what the record is.

That said, I have contemplated the possibility we have a truly dominant squad this year if we stay healthy.

 

[Ron Sellers]

TyronePoole beat me to it, but I'll repeat it anyways:

Being favored in every game does not mean you are expected to go undefeated.


The thread title makes it appear that Vegas expects not one, but both teams to go undefeated - and that is not the case at all. The over/under on the expected number of wins for either team is 12 right now, not 16.

 

[DefenseRules]

For crying out loud.
All this fan wants is to see her team win another damn Superbowl. :rocker:

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Free probability lesson:

You can use this calculator below for probabilities:

Binomial Calculator

n= the number of games played (16 for regular season)
p= the probability the Patriots will win any given game

Prob X can be set to see the chances that they will win a certain amount of games (either exactly, at least, or at most)

So, just for the heck of it:

n=16
p=.9

Prox X= exactly 16

Translation: If the Patriots have a 90% chance of winning each game, they would have an 18.5% chance of going undefeated.

They would have a 51% chance of winning 15 or 16 games, though.

 

[supafly]

TyronePoole beat me to it, but I'll repeat it anyways:

Being favored in every game does not mean you are expected to go undefeated.


The thread title makes it appear that Vegas expects not one, but both teams to go undefeated - and that is not the case at all. The over/under on the expected number of wins for either team is 12 right now, not 16.

The underlined quote is the most important aspect of the situation, and as you pointed out--the odds of either team (let alone BOTH) going undefeated is astronomically slim. That's why they have the over/under wins set at "12" for both Green Bay and N.England.

Let's remember that the individual pointspreads are meant for nothing more than bringing equal betting on both sides, so that Vegas does not have to worry about anything, and can simply rake in the juice (10-15%) on each wager. That's how they are guaranteed to win in most situations.

We only need to look as far as the stats that show the percentage of outright winners who were favored, and although it is rather high at approx. 70-75%, it surely does not mean that the favored team will be winning every game.

I think this tells us pretty much what we all already knew, which was the 2012 NEP team has approximately a 75% chance of winning all of its games....which is probably in direct relation with how Vegas got to its "12" number with over/under victories too.

 

[supafly]

Free probability lesson:

You can use this calculator below for probabilities:

Binomial Calculator

n= the number of games played (16 for regular season)
p= the probability the Patriots will win any given game

Prob X can be set to see the chances that they will win a certain amount of games (either exactly, at least, or at most)

So, just for the heck of it:

n=16
p=.9

Prox X= exactly 16

Translation: If the Patriots have a 90% chance of winning each game, they would have an 18.5% chance of going undefeated.

They would have a 51% chance of winning 15 or 16 games, though.

Sorry in advance for the question, but how did you get the variable for 'p?'

In other words, where the does the .9 come from?

 

[Mr.Kraft]

So in other words it's time to book a Flight to Louisiana, and Hotel for early February 2013 got it! Thanks for the heads up! :rocker:

 

[Pujo]

Sorry in advance for the question, but how did you get the variable for 'p?'

In other words, where the does the .9 come from?

I believe he said it was "just for the heck of it", in other words, 90% was just an example.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Sorry in advance for the question, but how did you get the variable for 'p?'

In other words, where the does the .9 come from?

p is the probability, and you can put in whatever value you want. For example, if you change p to .5, it is 50%. That would mean the Pats have a 50% chance of winning each game. I used .9 (or 90%) to demonstrate that, even if they had a very high percentage of winning each game, they still would go undefeated less than 20% of the time.

 

[supafly]

I believe he said it was "just for the heck of it", in other words, 90% was just an example.

p is the probability, and you can put in whatever value you want. For example, if you change p to .5, it is 50%. That would mean the Pats have a 50% chance of winning each game. I used .9 (or 90%) to demonstrate that, even if they had a very high percentage of winning each game, they still would go undefeated less than 20% of the time.

Thanks fellas.

 

[patsfan13]

THis team isn't going to lose many games this year, as long as we win the last 3....it's all good.

 

[Sciz]

Free probability lesson:

You can use this calculator below for probabilities:

Binomial Calculator

n= the number of games played (16 for regular season)
p= the probability the Patriots will win any given game

Prob X can be set to see the chances that they will win a certain amount of games (either exactly, at least, or at most)

So, just for the heck of it:

n=16
p=.9

Prox X= exactly 16

Translation: If the Patriots have a 90% chance of winning each game, they would have an 18.5% chance of going undefeated.

They would have a 51% chance of winning 15 or 16 games, though.

Oh man, now I can't even come on here without being reminded that I should be studying!

 

[Koma]

Free probability lesson:

You can use this calculator below for probabilities:

Binomial Calculator

n= the number of games played (16 for regular season)
p= the probability the Patriots will win any given game

Prob X can be set to see the chances that they will win a certain amount of games (either exactly, at least, or at most)

So, just for the heck of it:

n=16
p=.9

Prox X= exactly 16

Translation: If the Patriots have a 90% chance of winning each game, they would have an 18.5% chance of going undefeated.

They would have a 51% chance of winning 15 or 16 games, though.

It was my understanding that there would be no math...

 

[NSPF]

Free probability lesson:

You can use this calculator below for probabilities:

Binomial Calculator

n= the number of games played (16 for regular season)
p= the probability the Patriots will win any given game

Prob X can be set to see the chances that they will win a certain amount of games (either exactly, at least, or at most)

So, just for the heck of it:

n=16
p=.9

Prox X= exactly 16

Translation: If the Patriots have a 90% chance of winning each game, they would have an 18.5% chance of going undefeated.

They would have a 51% chance of winning 15 or 16 games, though.

Don't listen to those guys, I appreciate/understand your math.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

Don't listen to those guys, I appreciate/understand your math.

So the chaces for 14-2 look real good, 17-2 would be perfect. I didnt enjoy that 18-1 season all that much especially the end, even if they won the super bowl at the end it would have ranked 4th on the most enjoyable seasons.

 

[Sciz]

And on the topic of playoffs, if we assume even a 80% chance of winning (which is ridiculously generous against most playoff teams), then the probability of winning three in a row is just about 50%.

 

[PonyExpress]

19-0 would be the greatest team accomplishment in sports, therefore I always root for it. It would also be poetic vindication, and so doubly sweet.