Last year, with BJGE in the fold, Patriots RBs carried 377 times for 1,573 yards. I'll predict that the 2012 RB corps easily eclipses those numbers.
(continued from previous post)
2010:
After 3 consecutive seasons of anemic TE performance, BB let Ben Watson walk in FA and cut Chris Baker, leaving the Pats without any TEs. They then went out and signed FA Alge Crumpler and took advantage of the strongest TE draft class in memory to draft both Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Although the Pats started out with an offense similar to 2007/2009 - with Brandon Tate reasonably effective as the 3rd WR - the adjustment of defenses to the spread offense and the quick development of both Gronkowski and Hernandez allowed BB to trade Randy Moss 4 games into the season and totally redefine the offense around the TEs. TB had his best season since 2007 and earned his 2nd MVP, with a 37:5 TD:INT ratio including the longest streak without an interception in NFL history.
The offense averaged 32.4 PPG and the pass/rush ratio was fairly even (507 pass attempts, 454 rushes, or 53:47). The pass/rush TD ratio was almost 2:1 (37/19, or 66% passing/34% rushing). The Pats rushed 454 times for 1973 yards and a 4.3 YPC average (their best since 2008, perhaps due to the superb blocking of Alge Crumpler) and 19 rushing TDs. Laurence Maroney was traded and BJGE emerged as a 1000 yard back, the first since Corey Dillon in 2004. The percentage of passes targeted at the WRs dropped significantly to 56% (10% down from 2009), with the TE percentage increasing correspondingly to over 26%, and the RBs accouting for 17% (86/507 for 609 yards, or a little over 7 YPA, with a 71% completion rate). The rushing attack plus the RBs used in the passing game accounted for 56% of all offensive plays (540/961), 43% of total yards from scrimmage (2582/5995) and 46% of all TDs (21/46).
The 2019 offense was a radical departure from 2007/2009, virtually redefining the offense are the TEs. However, this included a very effective rushing attack, in part due to the use of 3 TE sets and Alge Crumpler, who had been instrumental in Chris Johnson's 2000 yard rushing season the year before in Tennessee. Nevertheless, in the playoffs the Jets dropped 8 men into coverage and dared the Patriots to run the ball, highlighting the need for more run/pass balance and integration.
2011:
It seemed as though the FO recognized the need for a stronger and more integrated rushing attack. The Pats drafted OLs Nate Solder and Marcus Cannon in the 2011 draft along with RBs Shane Vereen and Steven Ridley, and blocking TEs Lee Smith and (UDFA) Will Yeatman. Those moves seemed to clearly signal more of an interest in a power running attack, as well as more use of the RBs as receivers, especially with the trade back to draft Shane Vereen in the 2nd round. But it didn't work out that way. The lockout and short preseason affected the rookies' ability to get on board. Vereen held out briefly and then injured his hamstring. He was a non-factor with only 15 carries and no receptions for the season. Yeatman and Smith were both cut at the end of training camp, but other teams snatched them up before the Pats could sign them to the PS. Alge Crumpler's shoulder injury kept him out of action as well. As a result, the 2011 team used much less 3 TE sets and really had no depth behind Gronkowski and Hernandez at TE.
Injuries to the OL probably also affected the running game. Although Brian Waters was superb, Dan Koppen broke his leg and went on IR, and Sebastian Vollmer missed much of the season with back troubles. As a result, the run blocking was probably not up to the level of 2010. The Pats seemed to abandon the running game somewhat, instead relying even more on the TEs, with historic results. The offense averaged 32.1 PPG with an offense heavily skewed towards the pass (612 pass attempts, 438 rushes, or 58:42, the most lopsided ratio in the BB/TB era). The pass/rush TD ratio was over 2:1 (39/18, or 68% passing/32% rushing). The Pats rushed 438 times for 1764 yards (4.0 YPC average) and 18 rushing TDs, the lowest rushing yardage since 2005. The TEs dominated the passing game, with Gronkowski and Hernandez targeted 39% of the time (237/612), with an 71% completion rate. WRs were targeted just under 50% of the time (303/612), and the RB target % dropped as well to a low of 9.5% (58/612), with a 65% completion rate, which was also lower than usual, as was the 6.25 YPA average. As a result, the rushing attack plus the RBs used in the passing game accounted for only 47% of all offensive plays (5496/1050), 30% of total yards from scrimmage (2127/7021) and 32% of all TDs (18/57).
The 2011 offense not only failed to address the issues with the rushing attack from 2010, it moved towards a more unbalanced offense, with little in the way of either a vertical threat attack or an effective rushing game or use of running backs as receivers. As such, it moved towards the 2009 offense in terms of preditability. 3 players (Welker, Gronkowski and Hernandez) accounted for 40% of all offensive plays. The offense became even more predictable when one of those 3 players missed time or was injured, as was the case with Aaron Hernandez during the season and Rob Gronkowski for the Super Bowl and part of the AFCCG. The offense was held to 18.5 PPG in these 2 contests, almost 2 full TDs below it's season average.
Summary:
There has obviously been considerable difference in the offense from year to year, and in the role of the RBs. BB has clearly been looking for certain key elements for the offense - one can view Dan Graham and Ben Watson as a failed attempt to create a Gronk/Hernandez kind of combo. Laurence Maroney was certainly an attempt to draft a "FlexBack" with rushing/receiving skills. There seemed to be clear signs that the Pats with the last draft that the Pats were moving towards RBs who could be integrated into the running game and the capability to run a power offense with the same personnel as the base passing offense.
But there are obvious cases where the offensive direction was clearly influenced, and even on occasion dictated, by the personnel. The lack of receivers in 2006 pushed the offense towards a TE/RB direction. The injury to Brady in 2008 pushed the offense towards a more conservative approach with more reliance on the rushing game. And without Gronk and Hernandez, BB would not have been able to jettison Randy Moss and redefine the offense through the TEs.
Personally, my "favorite" offense was probably the 2nd half of 2008, when Matt Cassel started to get comfortable and show flashes of being a Brady understudy and the rushing attack was the best it has every been - probably even including Corey Dillon and the 2004 SB season. I'd like to replicate that kind of offense with Brady at the helm, but with some restraint on the passing game and more balance and integration of the running game. But that's JMHO.
The Pats have obviously shown that you can craft a potent offense in a number of different ways. They've also shown that a potent offensive isn't enough - the most explosive offense in NFL history was shut down in the 2008 SB. Injuries and defensive adaptation can erode an explosive offense that is not balanced and diversified. Balance, diversification and depth are needed as well. And disguise is one of the most potent advantages to an offense - it is so much harder for a defense to stop the opposing team when it is not clear what they are doing. The element of surprise tends to overwhelm even experienced defenses - look at how the Pats responded the first time Miami unleashed the Wildcat, vs. the second time when they were able to prepare for it.
Where Do We Go From Here?
Some of the problems with the rushing attack in 2011 were due to injuries to the offensive line and the lack of a 3rd blocking TE - Alge Crumpler played a big role in Chris Johnson's 2000 yard season with Tennessee in 2009, and he helped the rushing attack quite a bit for the Pats in 2010. Others were due to injuries and inexperience from the rookies. Nevertheless, the 2011 team both used the RBs less and used them less effectively than any other Pats team in the past 5 years. This, combined with the lack of an outside pass threat, made the offense too predictable and too easily stopped by playoff caliber defenses.
Whether these issues can be addressed with existing personnel or whether additional personnel are needed is an oen question. However, the coaching staff in 2011 seemed to give up on the rushing attack and use of RBs to a certain extent, and that has got to change for the offense to be less predictable.
Personally, I'd love to see the RBs integrated more into the passing game and the offense become less predictable. I love the way the 2009 and 2011 Saints teams used the RBs as both rushing and receiving weapons. Since the Pats seem to be moving towards a group of RBs who can be effective in both the running and passing game, I'm hoping that they are moving in that general direction.
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