What really happened in the second round?

[mayoclinic]

BTW, it's worth comparing the measurables and stats of Tavon Wilson, Brandon Meriweather (taken 24th overall in 2007) and Eugene Wilson (taken 36th overall in 2003), all FS for the Pats:

1. Tavon Wilson: 5' 11 6/8", 204#. 4.52 40, 1.60 10-yard split. 4.16 short shuttle, 7.04 3-cone. 32" vertical, 10'4" broad jump. 17 reps @ 225#. Team captain. Selfless player who changed positions based on the needs of the team. Experience at both FS and CB. Experience in zone and man coverage, and in the slot. Played extensively on special teams. Had 81 tackles, 1 sack, 6 passes defended, 1 INT, 6.5 TFL and 2 forced fumbles as a senior. As a senior, his team with 4th in the NCAA in fewest passing yards/game allowed.

2. Brandon Meriweather: 5' 11 5/8#, 195#. 4.47 40, 1.53 10-yard split. 4.33 short shuttle, 7.06 3-cone. 35" vertical, 9'3" broad jump. 11 reps @ 225#. Suspended for stomping on a player during a on-field brawl. Character questions, had some off field incidents. Compared himself to Ed Reed. 2 time second team all-ACC, Thorpe award finalist. Had 91 tackles, 1 sack, 8 PD and 1 INT as a senior. Had 293 tackles in 4 years at Miami.

3. Eugene Wilson: 5' 10 3/8", 192#. 4.48 40, 1.60 10-yard split. 4.05 short shuttle, 7.18 3-cone. 38" vertical, 10'2" broad jump. 15 reps @ 225#. Thorpe award semi-finalist and team captain. Played exclusively CB for the Illini. Had 66 tackles, 2 sacks, 14 passes defended, 1 INT and 2 forced fumbles as a senior. Had 11 interceptions for his career. Also returned punts.

FWIW.

 

[ZoisKing]

BTW, it's worth comparing the measurables and stats of Tavon Wilson, Brandon Meriweather (taken 24th overall in 2007) and Eugene Wilson (taken 36th overall in 2003), all FS for the Pats:

1. Tavon Wilson: 5' 11 6/8", 204#. 4.52 40, 1.60 10-yard split. 4.16 short shuttle, 7.04 3-cone. 32" vertical, 10'4" broad jump. 17 reps @ 225#. Team captain. Selfless player who changed positions based on the needs of the team. Experience at both FS and CB. Experience in zone and man coverage, and in the slot. Played extensively on special teams. Had 81 tackles, 1 sack, 6 passes defended, 1 INT, 6.5 TFL and 2 forced fumbles as a senior. As a senior, his team with 4th in the NCAA in fewest passing yards/game allowed.

2. Brandon Meriweather: 5' 11 5/8#, 195#. 4.47 40, 1.53 10-yard split. 4.33 short shuttle, 7.06 3-cone. 35" vertical, 9'3" broad jump. 11 reps @ 225#. Suspended for stomping on a player during a on-field brawl. Character questions, had some off field incidents. Compared himself to Ed Reed. 2 time second team all-ACC, Thorpe award finalist. Had 91 tackles, 1 sack, 8 PD and 1 INT as a senior. Had 293 tackles in 4 years at Miami.

3. Eugene Wilson: 5' 10 3/8", 192#. 4.48 40, 1.60 10-yard split. 4.05 short shuttle, 7.18 3-cone. 38" vertical, 10'2" broad jump. 15 reps @ 225#. Thorpe award semi-finalist and team captain. Played exclusively CB for the Illini. Had 66 tackles, 2 sacks, 14 passes defended, 1 INT and 2 forced fumbles as a senior. Had 11 interceptions for his career. Also returned punts.

FWIW.

I was always a fan of Eugene Wilson. I thought he was a great FS for us, especially when healthy and paired with Harrison.

I hope Tavon can resemble him in his level of play. Wasn't Eugene a 2nd rounder too?

 

[mayoclinic]

I was always a fan of Eugene Wilson. I thought he was a great FS for us, especially when healthy and paired with Harrison.

I hope Tavon can resemble him in his level of play. Wasn't Eugene a 2nd rounder too?

Yup. As mentioned, he went #36 in 2003. The Pats traded back from 19 to 41 with Baltimore as part of the Kyle Boller deal which netted them Vince Wilfork in 2004, then traded up from 41 to 36 (using a 4th round pick, #117 overall) to nab Wilson.

Tavon Wilson is a bit bigger and heavier than Eugene Wilson and doesn't have quite the same ball skills or man coverage ability right now. But he has more safety experience than Geno had coming out of college, and probably better run support.

 

[AzPatsFan]

BB changes his strategy as the Team changes. Why don't you realize that?

BB didn't need a 5th outside CB. He needed some specific talents in a a DB/FS.

When he was in massive rebuild time, he got lots of picks, jumped around the draft and took what he regarded as good players almost irrespective of position or need. Why? He simply believed in the law of numbers, get a lot of good players first, and patch with low rated vet FAs.

But when he had a SB club in its prime, he was much more selective. He filled holes with expensive vet FAs or even trades, like Colvin, AD, Moss and Welker, and backed them up with draftees and other low rated vet FAs. Why? Because he only had a few key openings and holes to fill.

BB has rebuilt ths team from top to bottom in the past 4 years. The last two years it has been fully a SuperBowl favorite type, contender.

The secondary was wrecked in 2011 with an inordinate number of injuries and failures. To improve, he needed to get those injured players back, and add a few more capable starters.

Leigh Bodden, a good CB, has probably suffered a career ending injury. Darien Butler didn't make it. Josh Barrett was lost for the year but is back. Ras-I Dowling was lost for the year, but returns. Chung was lost for more than half a season, but when he came back, the secondary played better.

Meriwether just didn't have the mental discipline to do it; and James Sanders who has that mental discipline and smarts, didn't quite have the athletic gifts required, that Meriwether had in surplus.

BB wanted better players at OLB/DE, LB and RS. He moved up for the first two positions, and drafted a better, bigger, more athletically gifted, guy with the same smarts and flexibility to captain the secondary that was missing from Meriwether's game; but with some athletic gifts and speed and size, missing from Sander's game.

There is a time to go shotgunning, and a time to use carefully aimed rifle shots.

There were slim pickings at Free Safety in this Draft. If BB had not gotten Tavon, I don't doubt he would have used the CAP space from the Brady renegotiations, and future picks, to trade for a guy like FS Alvin Bethea of the Colts. He still may after he sees what he has.

Isn't that just what he did? Where is the panic? Where is the screw-up?

Sorry, I just don't see it. I agree there were probably better athletes available in the second round, but what good are they sitting on the bench or snatched up in final cuts? Belichick is seeking to build a complete Super Bowl winning Team, not a collection of stars.

 

[rookBoston]

There is a time to go shotgunning, and a time to use carefully aimed rifle shots.

Yes, that is a very good analogy. BB isn't spraying bullets at random. He's using a laser targeted sniper rifle. Three bullets. Three starters. Very careful. Very patient. And in 2012 in particular, he can afford to be patient. The roster is stocked and deep.

I'm sure he had max six or seven names on an index card. Specific individuals that he wanted on the team. I would love to see the card. I will bet anything Mark Barron was on it, but Barron went early. I suspect Michael Brockers was on it. We'll probably never know for certain.

It's the same every year. As the draft evolves, BB moves up and down to land the specific players he wants as they come into the range where he's projected their value. After trading down twice before the McCourty pick, BB was filmed contemplating another trade back, but decided against it, saying "let's take our guy". It was clear, he was focused on landing McCourty, while getting as much value as possible. The fans were all thinking "take Dez Bryant, he dropped right to us, the value is great", but for Belichick it was only ever about McCourty.

[Actually, I have this pet theory that Jermaine Gresham was also on BB's index card that year. If Cinci hadn't taken him with the pick right before the Pats... you can see BB visibly cringe on film when the Cinci pick was announced... BB might have taken him instead of Gronkowski, while still hoping to get McCourty in the early 2nd round. If so, thank goodness how it worked out! Sometimes you're just lucky.]

Each pick is always with a specific roster spot in mind. This guy will a starting left tackle. This guy will be a three-down edge pass rusher. This guy will be my blocking and receiving TE. This guy will be my starting free safety. Totally need based drafting.

I remember BB told the media, many years ago, if you draft a player but you know it's not a good fit, not only do you waste that pick, and carry dead weight on the roster, but you still have to spend another pick at the same position the next year. Drafting BPA is not a solution. BPA, in this view, is tantamount to drafting a guy who's literally "not who I want, but better than nothing". I think BB would say, you are actually better off drafting nothing. Better off trading the draft value forward for whatever you can get, and live to fight another day.

Far better to fill the roster with JAG talent (Gary Guyton? Tully Banta Cain?) to carry the team along, and scheme away from them on game day, than waste the draft picks on players who you don't actually want to be the cornerstones of your franchise. Do you really want someone like Quentin Coples to be the face of your franchise?!? Or Dez Bryant, for that matter? Talent aside, what message are you sending to your locker room?

Save your first round draft value until you find a guy you are absolutely certain will fill all aspects of the job (Hightower, Solder, Jones) and be the impact player you want from your first rounders. Why settle for less? Since the guy you want (with the right combination of physical, intellectual and psychological makeup) may only come once along once every few years, that one year when he actually IS in the draft class, you better have saved up sufficient draft value to bring him in.

And with Mayo, McCourty, Chung, Hightower, Jones, Wilfork setting the tone for the D, you can afford to bring Dennard onto the team, and expect that he'll follow the right example. How can he not? Where's the negative influence going to come from when he's surrounded by true professionals on all sides?

Very selective. Very targeted. Very patient... like a sniper.

 

[patchick]

Save your first round draft value until you find a guy you are absolutely certain will fill all aspects of the job (Hightower, Solder, Jones) and be the impact player you want from your first rounders. Why settle for less? Since the guy you want (with the right combination of physical, intellectual and psychological makeup) may only come once along once every few years, that one year when he actually IS in the draft class, you better have saved up sufficient draft value to bring him in.

This makes a lot of sense to me, and is why the Pats' pick that has always baffled me is Brandon Meriweather. In the lead-up to the 2007 draft, I kept arguing that they would never pick Meriweather, because Pats #1 picks are always the prototype for the position: prototype frame, prototype athleticism, prototype character. Meriweather was none of those things. Go figure.

(Of course, Meriweather was a popular pick with fans, whereas much more "prototype" guys like Mankins and Solder went over like lead balloons. IMO cheers are usually for the position in round 1 more than the player.)

 

[State]

Great points. There are indeed a lot of similarity between the two Wilsons from The Fighting Illini. However, it is obvious to me from watching both that Eugene and Tavon that the former was even more of a playmaker than the latter.

Just comparing the two in INTs sets the table for me: EUGENE'S 11 for 51 yards (ten his sophomore and junior years--teams stayed away from him his senior year) versus TAVON'S 3 for 5 yards. This is over the same three-year period. And back then the Big Ten did more running than they do now, so presumably TW had more balls flying in the air to intercept.

Also, Eugene was the team's punt returner his last few years and was even more disruptive.

Tavon will be fine--he's just a third-round value, so he was a bit of a reach--and he'll demonstrate good versatility and coachability. Thinking of the players we could have had at 48--think a truly disruptive force in the Big Ten in Lavonte David--hurts a little. I hope the play of the two means we'll think of Tavon as a better Eugene.

 

[fester]

The Pats picked at 48 and at 55 was Atlanta who had brought in Wilson a few weeks before the draft. I'm sure they figured their draft grade couldn't be that different than Dimitroff's so they pulled the trigger on the player they wanted. No conspiracy theory. Nothing to see here, move along.

I wonder how the diffusion of the Patriots management talent has impacted player evaluation, offers and willingness to take risks on a guy slipping over the past few years. In 2007, the Patriots were the only team led by Belicheck tree management guys. In 2012, there are at least three teams that can be described as such (Pats, Chiefs, Falcons,) with another that is strongly influenced (Cardinals).

How similar are the grading systems in reailty between the three Belicheck tree led clubs? Would they all grade Chandler Jones the same or more importantly Tavon Wilson and Jake Bequette, as I suspect there is much more variance in grades the further down the board one gets.

 

[State]

BB isn't spraying bullets at random. He's using a laser targeted sniper rifle. Three bullets. Three starters. Very careful. Very patient. And in 2012 in particular, he can afford to be patient. The roster is stocked and deep.

I'm sure he had max six or seven names on an index card. Specific individuals that he wanted on the team. I would love to see the card. I will bet anything Mark Barron was on it, but Barron went early. I suspect Michael Brockers was on it. We'll probably never know for certain.

It's the same every year. As the draft evolves, BB moves up and down to land the specific players he wants as they come into the range where he's projected their value. After trading down twice before the McCourty pick, BB was filmed contemplating another trade back, but decided against it, saying "let's take our guy"....And with Mayo, McCourty, Chung, Hightower, Jones, Wilfork setting the tone for the D, you can afford to bring Dennard onto the team, and expect that he'll follow the right example. How can he not? Where's the negative influence going to come from when he's surrounded by true professionals on all sides?

Very selective. Very targeted. Very patient... like a sniper.

Great analysis. Dead on. I'm sure you're right about Mark Barron. He would have helped this defense more than anyone.

One thing Belichick likes to do is take players whom conventional wisdom says not to take. Tavon Wilson will long be remembered as such a player. BTW, I think Belichick wins against conventional wisdom on this one. The greatest predictor of success is GRIT, which I think Tavon has a lot of since he's coped with the loss of both parents. I predict Tavon will succeed more than most of this year's second-rounders. Belichick is like the Steven Leavitt (of Freakonomics fame) for being abreast of the latest research.

He may still get burned on this with the Ras-I Dowling pick, however, if this talented player goes down and is unable to play this season.

I still think we should have taken Torrey from Maryland in 2011 whom the Ravens snagged latter in the second round. Did you see all the old guys we have bunched together at WR?

 

[everlong]

[Actually, I have this pet theory that Jermaine Gresham was also on BB's index card that year. If Cinci hadn't taken him with the pick right before the Pats... you can see BB visibly cringe on film when the Cinci pick was announced... BB might have taken him instead of Gronkowski, while still hoping to get McCourty in the early 2nd round. If so, thank goodness how it worked out! Sometimes you're just lucky.]

I completely agree about Gresham. I really liked both him and Pettigrew coming out and both have lived up to expectations. Gresham's numbers might not be that pretty but you have to look at who was throwing to him. Nothing year one and a rookie year two. That offense is going to be loaded this year. I expect him to have a break out year. I had Gronk as the #1 TE option that year. I hope I'm as right about Hightower as I was Gronk. My two favorite within reach prospects in the last 5 years. The player I was most wrong about was Jerry Hughes so I'm glad Polian agreed with me.

 

[dryheat44]

Each pick is always with a specific roster spot in mind. This guy will a starting left tackle. This guy will be a three-down edge pass rusher. This guy will be my blocking and receiving TE. This guy will be my starting free safety. Totally need based drafting.

I remember BB told the media, many years ago, if you draft a player but you know it's not a good fit, not only do you waste that pick, and carry dead weight on the roster, but you still have to spend another pick at the same position the next year. Drafting BPA is not a solution. BPA, in this view, is tantamount to drafting a guy who's literally "not who I want, but better than nothing". I think BB would say, you are actually better off drafting nothing. Better off trading the draft value forward for whatever you can get, and live to fight another day.

I find these two paragraphs at odds. Largely because you mis-remember or mis-interpret the Belichick quote in the second. What BB was saying is that if you target a position of need and ignore a superior player, the targeted player may not work out, and you're stuck with the same hole on the roster again the next year. He was actually arguing against need-based drafting.

There is a significant difference between knowing how you are going to use a drafted player, and using a specific pick to fill an existing need. I think it's clear BB does not do that.

To put it another way, if he felt that starting safety was his biggest need and drafted like it, he would have traded up to get Baron, or stayed put and drafted Smith, or traded down to draft Wilson. Instead, he felt that Jones and Hightower were special players worth trading up for. For all the needs on this team, a 1st round inside linebacker really wasn't one of them.

 

[patchick]

There is a significant difference between knowing how you are going to use a drafted player, and using a specific pick to fill an existing need. I think it's clear BB does not do that.

To put it another way, if he felt that starting safety was his biggest need and drafted like it, he would have traded up to get Baron, or stayed put and drafted Smith, or traded down to draft Wilson. Instead, he felt that Jones and Hightower were special players worth trading up for. For all the needs on this team, a 1st round inside linebacker really wasn't one of them.

Dryheat, I don't think it's that cut and dried. You can draft to fill specific existing needs without assuming that your #1 pick has to fill your #1 need, etc. For an extreme example, if a team enters the draft with a strong roster but no punter under contract, not even the most need-based approach would suggest they draft a punter in round 1.

The reality of the draft is that super-athletic 6'5" pass rushers go a lot earlier than 5'11" safeties with awesome intangibles and average athleticism.
The Patriots did move aggressively for Wilson, under the circumstances. (And it's really not realistic to suggest that they could have traded up for Barron, given that he went #7 overall.)

 

[everlong]

I Instead, he felt that Jones and Hightower were special players worth trading up for. For all the needs on this team, a 1st round inside linebacker really wasn't one of them.

You're assuming he's going to exclusively play ILB and I don't. He's going to make them more flexible than they've been in years.

 

[dryheat44]

Dryheat, I don't think it's that cut and dried. You can draft to fill specific existing needs without assuming that your #1 pick has to fill your #1 need, etc. For an extreme example, if a team enters the draft with a strong roster but no punter under contract, not even the most need-based approach would suggest they draft a punter in round 1.

The reality of the draft is that super-athletic 6'5" pass rushers go a lot earlier than 5'11" safeties with awesome intangibles and average athleticism.
The Patriots did move aggressively for Wilson, under the circumstances. (And it's really not realistic to suggest that they could have traded up for Barron, given that he went #7 overall.)

Which would be value drafting. I have never claimed that value equation ignores need.

 

[BelichickFan]

I find these two paragraphs at odds. Largely because you mis-remember or mis-interpret the Belichick quote in the second. What BB was saying is that if you target a position of need and ignore a superior player, the targeted player may not work out, and you're stuck with the same hole on the roster again the next year. He was actually arguing against need-based drafting.

There is a significant difference between knowing how you are going to use a drafted player, and using a specific pick to fill an existing need. I think it's clear BB does not do that.

To put it another way, if he felt that starting safety was his biggest need and drafted like it, he would have traded up to get Baron, or stayed put and drafted Smith, or traded down to draft Wilson. Instead, he felt that Jones and Hightower were special players worth trading up for. For all the needs on this team, a 1st round inside linebacker really wasn't one of them.

I read what Belichick said in whatever book it was differently. I don't believe he said you have to target your biggest and fill it. What he said, I believe, is that if you TRY to fill a need you need to think it's with a player who can play or you'll still have the need next year. In other words, there would be no point in drafting Wilson if you don't think he can fill the need you are looking for. The only takeaway I get from the quote about filling needs and the taking of Wilson is that Belichick, et al, thinks that Wilson has a good chance to fill the hole they have and otherwise they would have gone with another year with what they have and tried again next year.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

Pats finally traded up and got the impact player and Fred has to complain about something, so yeah Belichick PANICKED!!!!!!!!! at the 48th pick in the draft.
...

Saying a guy who is probably one of the most prepared people on the planet at what he does 'panicked' is just too dumb for words.

I stand by what I said; they panicked. The Patriots wanted to trade down at 48 but they could not find any partners and were afraid that all the picks would be gone by the end of the day. Instead of waiting until 62 and trading down from there...they panicked. Then real panic set in at 62 and they made a bad trade down (but luckily redeemed themselves with Dennard).

I don't think that BB and his staff are omnipotent on draft day but you apparently do. So how do you explain Ron Brace and Cunningham and Price and Butler? No they screwed up as they usually do in round 2 and made up for it as they usually do later in the draft.

 

[Avenger]

I stand by what I said; they panicked. The Patriots wanted to trade down at 48 but they could not find any partners and were afraid that all the picks would be gone by the end of the day. Instead of waiting until 62 and trading down from there...they panicked. Then real panic set in at 62 and they made a bad trade down (but luckily redeemed themselves with Dennard).

I don't think that BB and his staff are omnipotent on draft day but you apparently do. So how do you explain Ron Brace and Cunningham and Price and Butler? No they screwed up as they usually do in round 2 and made up for it as they usually do later in the draft.

I don't think they are omnipotent, but I don't think they are the type to panic.

 

[mayoclinic]

I stand by what I said; they panicked.

There's a difference between making the wrong choice and panicking. As I said above, the Pats' draft board (and every other team's) is set up well in advance. They may make mistakes in grading players - and their grades factor in need among other things - but they don't panic. I'd put Ron Brace in the "made a mistake with their grade" category. Darius Butler, too. Maybe Jermaine Cunningham - the jury is still out. But it doesn't matter, the Pats have made LOTS of mistakes in terms of setting up their draft board, as have every other team. Whether Tavon Wilson is a mistake or not remains to be seen. But if he was, it was a mistake of careful and deliberate player evaluation, not a spur of the moment panicking during the draft. They are very different things.

 

[Sciz]

I stand by what I said; they panicked. The Patriots wanted to trade down at 48 but they could not find any partners and were afraid that all the picks would be gone by the end of the day. Instead of waiting until 62 and trading down from there...they panicked. Then real panic set in at 62 and they made a bad trade down (but luckily redeemed themselves with Dennard).

I don't think that BB and his staff are omnipotent on draft day but you apparently do. So how do you explain Ron Brace and Cunningham and Price and Butler? No they screwed up as they usually do in round 2 and made up for it as they usually do later in the draft.

So what was the "not-panicking" move that they should have done at 48?

 

[Snake Eyes]

So what was the "not-panicking" move that they should have done at 48?

Trade back, for BB it's like breathing. I'm serious.