Some thoughts - Chargers/Colts

[BelichickFan]

Even with Sanders in the last game we averaged 4.2 YPC. And that was with no Graham and no Neal. Tommy is comfortable against the Cover 2, we should be able to run or pass - I'd lean more to the run, though, just because our passing game still makes me nervous with it's execution. I do expect it to be better this week, though, again with Tommy knowing the Cover 2 so well vs. trying to find his way against SD.

Defensively I would play a lot of Nickel, at least initially and see how the run defense can do. Scott or Hawkins can take Dallas Clark who has become their #3 receiver (quote a comedown from when Stokely had 1,000 yards a few years ago). Then have a Safety help each CB on Harrison/Wayne.

 

[Brownfan80]

Even with Sanders in the last game we averaged 4.2 YPC. And that was with no Graham and no Neal. Tommy is comfortable against the Cover 2, we should be able to run or pass - I'd lean more to the run, though, just because our passing game still makes me nervous with it's execution. I do expect it to be better this week, though, again with Tommy knowing the Cover 2 so well vs. trying to find his way against SD.

Defensively I would play a lot of Nickel, at least initially and see how the run defense can do. Scott or Hawkins can take Dallas Clark who has become their #3 receiver (quote a comedown from when Stokely had 1,000 yards a few years ago). Then have a Safety help each CB on Harrison/Wayne.

I'd forgotten that Neal and Graham were out for the first Colts game. That should really impact our running game this time around.

I'm expecting a very good game out of Tom Brady after the SD game and his prior performance against the Colts. I'm sure he'll protect the ball better. I am hoping he plays the game of his life.

 

[The_Dragon]

Even with Sanders in the last game we averaged 4.2 YPC. And that was with no Graham and no Neal. Tommy is comfortable against the Cover 2, we should be able to run or pass - I'd lean more to the run, though, just because our passing game still makes me nervous with it's execution. I do expect it to be better this week, though, again with Tommy knowing the Cover 2 so well vs. trying to find his way against SD.

Defensively I would play a lot of Nickel, at least initially and see how the run defense can do. Scott or Hawkins can take Dallas Clark who has become their #3 receiver (quote a comedown from when Stokely had 1,000 yards a few years ago). Then have a Safety help each CB on Harrison/Wayne.

BF I'd tend to agree on the defensive strategy.


I'm not sure the Pats will be hugely concerned by the Indy running game - obviously within reason. I could see them allowing running yards if it enabled them to frustrate Manning and not allow him big plays. Something similiar to what Kansas City did but executed more successfully. Kansas City's defense played really well for as long as they could - in the end their offense's poor play and the subsequent time spent on the field for the defense was the their undoing defensively.

 

[Brownfan80]

BF I'd tend to agree on the defensive strategy.


I'm not sure the Pats will be hugely concerned by the Indy running game - obviously within reason. I could see them allowing running yards if it enabled them to frustrate Manning and not allow him big plays. Something similiar to what Kansas City did but executed more successfully. Kansas City's defense played really well for as long as they could - in the end their offense's poor play and the subsequent time spent on the field for the defense was the their undoing defensively.

I got the same feeling watching the KC/Indy game. I think their defense was playing well enough to win until their offense did jack all game long and tired their D out.

If our offense can find ways to keep our defense fresh and score some points, then this game is quite winnable.

 

[Brownfan80]

unrelated

Hey, Os, how did your system do after the results of the Divisional Round? And more importantly, what does it say about the Indy game?

 

[The_Dragon]

If our offense can find ways to keep our defense fresh and score some points, then this game is quite winnable.

Exactly. And as stated earlier we are in a much better postion offensively to give the defense the rest it needs to keep fresh. Don't forget that KC intrecepted Manning three times before he got a handle on things.

The scoring sequence will obviously play into all of this.

 

[Oswlek]

Hey, Os, how did your system do after the results of the Divisional Round? And more importantly, what does it say about the Indy game?

Will be up within the hour.

With divisonal round, I only did the NE game, but it was 10 to 9.9 in the Chargers favor with every single trend pointing to NE, including home/away.

I interpreted that to mean that NE would win, but it will take more examples of nearly identical season scores with lopsided trends favoring the lower one to reach anything scientific.

 

[Brownfan80]

Will be up within the hour.

With divisonal round, I only did the NE game, but it was 10 to 9.9 in the Chargers favor with every single trend pointing to NE, including home/away.

I interpreted that to mean that NE would win, but it will take more examples of nearly identical season scores with lopsided trends favoring the lower one to reach anything scientific.

Awesome, I'll be sure to check those posts out when they go up.

 

[zippo59]

I think the biggect thing is to not let the Colts control the flow of the game. I think this happened the last two times, ad it always felt like we were fighting uphill and on our heels, even when the game is close. With the Colts defense you have to be patient. It is designed to prevent the big plays but if you are patient you can find holes.

 

[Brownfan80]

I think the biggect thing is to not let the Colts control the flow of the game. I think this happened the last two times, ad it always felt like we were fighting uphill and on our heels, even when the game is close. With the Colts defense you have to be patient. It is designed to prevent the big plays but if you are patient you can find holes.

I agree completely. We need to control the flow of the game from the get-go, or at least take it away at some point, as we did in SD.

 

[The_Dragon]

I agree completely. We need to control the flow of the game from the get-go, or at least take it away at some point, as we did in SD.

Interesting to note on Mike Reiss' offensive participation blog that Daniel Graham seems to have taken over Ben Watson's role as the pass catching tight end out of the shotgun. I don't have the benefit of seeing every Pats game in full but Graham seems like a very safe pair of hands when he's thrown to.

http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/reiss_pieces/

They always seem to be catches for large chunks of yards as well - in the 10 to 30 yards range. Added to his blocking in the run game and the passing game it shows just how valuable Graham is - and often underestimated.

 

[Brownfan80]

Interesting to note on Mike Reiss' offensive participation blog that Daniel Graham seems to have taken over Ben Watson's role as the pass catching tight end out of the shotgun. I don't have the benefit of seeing every Pats game in full but Graham seems like a very safe pair of hands when he's thrown to.

http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/reiss_pieces/

They always seem to be catches for large chunks of yards as well - in the 10 to 30 yards range. Added to his blocking in the run game and the passing game it shows just how valuable Graham is - and often underestimated.

I think it's pivotal that Graham is back in this matchup (unlike earlier in the season). He'll be instrumental in our run blocking, IMO, and on helping to block Freeney. Also, he's more of a 'sneak threat' in the passing game since he's used so much as a blocker. I think he's more 'surprising' or rather unpredictable as a reciever since they never know when he's actually releasing into routes.

Watson, I think, is normally used as more of a reciever than a blocker, and is probably more predictable.

I noted in another thread - Watson is killing this team - that Watson's playing time has come down since he's been injured much as Graham's did when he was injured. They've just sea-sawed being healthy. When one's been right, the other hasn't.

 

[The_Dragon]

I think it's pivotal that Graham is back in this matchup (unlike earlier in the season). He'll be instrumental in our run blocking, IMO, and on helping to block Freeney.

Agreed - especially with the Colts run D's recent improvement.

 

[marty]

I think it's pivotal that Graham is back in this matchup (unlike earlier in the season). He'll be instrumental in our run blocking, IMO, and on helping to block Freeney. Also, he's more of a 'sneak threat' in the passing game since he's used so much as a blocker. I think he's more 'surprising' or rather unpredictable as a reciever since they never know when he's actually releasing into routes.

Watson, I think, is normally used as more of a reciever than a blocker, and is probably more predictable.

I noted in another thread - Watson is killing this team - that Watson's playing time has come down since he's been injured much as Graham's did when he was injured. They've just sea-sawed being healthy. When one's been right, the other hasn't.

I'm hoping that Dave Thomas gets some reps to mix it up a bit. Also, your point about the O staying on the field more and giving the D a "blow" will be critical IMO as they seemed to be on the field way too much at SD!

 

[Brownfan80]

I'm hoping that Dave Thomas gets some reps to mix it up a bit. Also, your point about the O staying on the field more and giving the D a "blow" will be critical IMO as they seemed to be on the field way too much at SD!

I think Dave Thomas is a very interesting player. I think he's come in and done very well for a rookie in limited reps. I've really liked him from what we've been shown of him.

Yeah, last week at San Diego, their offense was really playing some pretty good ball control and in addition to our offense's turnovers were really keeping the ball away from us (much like we should have been doing to them, and should do to Indy this week). They were 'beating us at our own game', so to say.

But then their mistakes kicked in and changed things.

I'm not sure that the Patriots will be able to depend on self inflicted wounds this week, so they better be ready to control the clock and play keep away. This time, it's for keeps.