Charley Casserley On Alabama Safety Mark Barron - 'Worth A Top Ten Pick'

[manxman2601]

NFL.com news: Draft's hottest prospect: Mark Barron's worth a top-10 pick

Sorry to do this, I know he's controversial but I'm still holding on to a desperate hope that we trade up for him.

Rated lower than Barron:

• Earl Thomas, 2010 draft, 14th pick (Seattle): Not as good a tackler.

• LaRon Landry, 2007 draft, sixth pick (Washington): Not as stout in man-to-man coverage.

• Michael Huff, 2006 draft, seventh pick (Oakland): Not as physical.

• Donte Whitner, 2006 draft, eighth pick (Buffalo): Barron rates better in all phases of the game.

• Sean Taylor 2004 draft, fifth pick (Washington): Not as smooth in the hips, could not cover as well.

In scouting for the draft, you compare prospects to previous players taken in a round to decide what value to put on them. This is how I arrive at my thinking: Mark Barron is worth a top-10 pick.

Which means, if BB thinks the same, at 13 or 14, he represents decent value.

 

[supafly]

Not for all the tea in China, whatever the hell that really means (ask patjew).

There's no way in the world that Belichick trades up for a safety, there's too much value in the other picks that he holds.

Not to TRY and sound like a know-it-all, b/c that isn't the intention, but I would be shocked more than anything if BB traded up for Barron; not to mention disappointed.

If he'd trade up, which he won't, I would hope he'd do it for a high impact front 7 player that would be here for 6-8 yrs down the road.

 

[manxman2601]

Not for all the tea in China, whatever the hell that really means (ask patjew).

There's no way in the world that Belichick trades up for a safety, there's too much value in the other picks that he holds.

Not to TRY and sound like a know-it-all, b/c that isn't the intention, but I would be shocked more than anything if BB traded up for Barron; not to mention disappointed.

If he'd trade up, which he won't, I would hope he'd do it for a high impact front 7 player that would be here for 6-8 yrs down the road.

What value? If you joined two prospects together from picks 27, 31 or 48, you don't get a top 10 player, certainly there are very few impact players in that range.

And I'm afraid I don't understand the obsession with front 7 players hereabouts. It certainly wasn't the front 7 that was our weakness last year, it was the secondary. Nor do i think BB obsesses about the front 7 - he's never drafted a first round pass rusher and he passed last year on DE/DT's far better than the crop available at the end of the first round this year.

I understand your objection to trading up, and I agree that it's highly unlikely that BB will do it but having seen just about every play of Barron's this year, one thing I can assure you of, in 5 years time, Barron will almost certainly be a better player than anyone we draft at 27 and or 31. The guy is an absolute stud.

Actually I'll amend that previous statement. There is one player who i think could possibly be in the same exalted territory as Barron in five years time. The trouble is, drafting him will cause as big a stink. That player is RB Doug Martin.

 

[manxman2601]

I just want to add another point to those who don't think there's value in drafting a safety (despite the fact that BB clearly values the position highly (Rodney Harrison, a first rounder and an almost first rounder). I saw this on another message board:

Guys who cover TEs in today's NFL are just about the most important player on the defense. I've said it before, go back just 10 years. In 2001 there were 3 TEs with over 700 yards receiving. In 2011 there were 14. In 2001 Tony Gonzales was by far the best receiving TE in the game with 900 yards receiving. Last year both Graham and Gronk passed the 1300 yard mark. For the first year in the NFL's history a TE lead the entire league in receiving TDs.

If you have a safety that can cover TEs, he's every bit as valuable as a pass rusher or cover corner IMHO. That may not have been true a decade ago, but a decade ago there weren't 5,000 yard passing offenses with TEs at the featured target.

If NFL front offices think Barron can cover TEs, not only is he worth a Top 15 pick, you could justify him going much, much higher.

 

[jsull87]

What value? If you joined two prospects together from picks 27, 31 or 48, you don't get a top 10 player, certainly there are very few impact players in that range.

And I'm afraid I don't understand the obsession with front 7 players hereabouts. It certainly wasn't the front 7 that was our weakness last year, it was the secondary. Nor do i think BB obsesses about the front 7 - he's never drafted a first round pass rusher and he passed last year on DE/DT's far better than the crop available at the end of the first round this year.

I understand your objection to trading up, and I agree that it's highly unlikely that BB will do it but having seen just about every play of Barron's this year, one thing I can assure you of, in 5 years time, Barron will almost certainly be a better player than anyone we draft at 27 and or 31. The guy is an absolute stud.
.

That is really one of my pet peeves come draft time. That tradeing down won't give us impact players and players in the 2nd and late 1st are just ok but won't have the impact like a top 10 pick will.

Impact players picked 25-50 in the last 2 drafts (by impact i mean 1st year starter/pro bowler 1st/2nd year)

2011

Jabal Sheard DE/OLB
Titus Young WR
John Baldwin WR
Andy Dalton QB
Steven Wisniewski LG
Brooks Reed DE/OLB

2010
Teebow QB
Devin McCourty (Pro Bowl as rookie)
Oderick DE
Saffold OT
Nate Allen FS
Koa Misi DE/OLB
Rob Gronkowski (Pro Bowl Year 2)
Lamar Houston DE

2009
Vonte Davis
Clay Mathews (Rookie Pro Bowl)
Eric Wood
Hakeem Nicks
Kenny Britt
Louis Delmas
Pat Chung
James Lauranitis
Rey Maualuga
Jarryus Byrd (Rookie Pro Bowl)
LeSean McCoy (Arguably the NFL's best back last year)

The argument is do you want 2 of the above or 1 of the top 10 guys. That is a fine argument to have and i don't really think there is a right answer but all i am saying is the whole you must trade up to get a difference maker is a bit of a false truth.

Because if your drafting department is spot on you may end up if you have picks 27, 31, 48 in 200 with Clay Mathews, Jarryus Byrd and LeSean McCoy.

Or you could use the picks to trade up to the top 10 and get Orakpo or Aldon smith type to use and example from last year. Who knows the answer but both options are valid

 

[Wilfork#75]

I know I'm in the minority here, but I think Mark Barron is overrated. Its not that I don't think he is a very good player, but I see him more as a fringe 1st round prospect rather than a top 15 pick. In an even average Safety class I don't think he gets picked before about 22. And I don't think he is the only one. Harrison Smith is going to be overdrafted , and I could see some of the mid round guys getting pushed up as well. I think we would be better off trying to get through this year with what we have and go after someone next year in what looks to be a much stronger safety class.

 

[WhiZa]

It's easy to overvalue a player when they are the only one at their position worthy of a 1st round pick. His value will go up just based on supply and demand.

 

[UK_Pat37]

I know I'm in the minority here, but I think Mark Barron is overrated. Its not that I don't think he is a very good player, but I see him more as a fringe 1st round prospect rather than a top 15 pick. In an even average Safety class I don't think he gets picked before about 22. And I don't think he is the only one. Harrison Smith is going to be overdrafted , and I could see some of the mid round guys getting pushed up as well. I think we would be better off trying to get through this year with what we have and go after someone next year in what looks to be a much stronger safety class.

Kenny Vaccaro is going to sh*t on Mark Barron next year

Gutted he never declared. He'd have been my top rated safety.

 

[NinjaZX6R]

Not for all the tea in China, whatever the hell that really means (ask patjew).

There's no way in the world that Belichick trades up for a safety, there's too much value in the other picks that he holds.

Not to TRY and sound like a know-it-all, b/c that isn't the intention, but I would be shocked more than anything if BB traded up for Barron; not to mention disappointed.

If he'd trade up, which he won't, I would hope he'd do it for a high impact front 7 player that would be here for 6-8 yrs down the road.

Cause India and near by nations around India produce Tea too!

 

[conway]

Just saw a mock (wes bunting, huffington post) that had Barron falling to us at 27 and Nick Perry at 31. It's maybe the only one I've seen that has Barron falling that far, but otherwise looked fairly reasonable. Anyway, I'd be thrilled if those were our first 2 picks. That would really open up the rest the draft for a BPA pick, with a leaning towards DL.

 

[Sciz]

All those guys he listed weren't high picks just because they were good. They were picked high because of their potential:

Earl Thomas: 4.37 40
LaRon Landry: 4.35
Michael Huff: 4.34
Donte Whitner: 4.38
Sean Taylor: 4.51 (at 230 pounds)

Mark Barron: 4.54
If he wants to compare Barron as a prospect to these guys as prospects, he's got to compare the whole package. The only safety he mentioned that was within .15 seconds of Barron's 40 time weighed 17 pounds more than he did. And like it or not, potential has just as much of an impact on a draft prospect's rating as their play on the field their last year.

I'll do what I always do with Casserly. I'm going to flip a coin. If it's heads, he's right. If it's tails, he's wrong. That's usually about how accurate he is.

 

[JackBauer]

Hopefully one of the less intelligent teams in the league will listen to Casserly's advice.

 

[ATippett56]

Dallas Cowboys, San Diego Chargers, New York Jesters desperately need a safety.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

A lot of mediots seem to have Dallas locked in on Barron at 14.

That said, the trading up equation has to factor in what you give up, be that an ability to trade back or out for better future value or the shot at landing other potential playmakers. Apparently Mayock just pronounced Shea McClellin another Mike Vrabel...for example.

 

[ATippett56]

Apparently Mayock just pronounced Shea McClellin another Mike Vrabel...for example.

Apparently the Green Bay Packers are drooling over Shea McClellin.

 

[manxman2601]

All those guys he listed weren't high picks just because they were good. They were picked high because of their potential:

Earl Thomas: 4.37 40
LaRon Landry: 4.35
Michael Huff: 4.34
Donte Whitner: 4.38
Sean Taylor: 4.51 (at 230 pounds)

Mark Barron: 4.54
If he wants to compare Barron as a prospect to these guys as prospects, he's got to compare the whole package. The only safety he mentioned that was within .15 seconds of Barron's 40 time weighed 17 pounds more than he did. And like it or not, potential has just as much of an impact on a draft prospect's rating as their play on the field their last year.

I'll do what I always do with Casserly. I'm going to flip a coin. If it's heads, he's right. If it's tails, he's wrong. That's usually about how accurate he is.

Speed is less relevant to the safety position. for example, Dashon Goldson ran 4.60+. And a notable one. Ed Reed - 4.57.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I just want to add another point to those who don't think there's value in drafting a safety (despite the fact that BB clearly values the position highly (Rodney Harrison, a first rounder and an almost first rounder). I saw this on another message board:

Big fast TE's that can catch are all the rage in this draft.

I saw where teams are working out SMU DE Thompson (6'6" and 260 pounds) as a TE and NOT a DE.

Fleenor is clearly a second round talent, but now people have him listed in the top 25. He is baiscally a big WR with spectacular hands and speed.

 

[supafly]

What value? If you joined two prospects together from picks 27, 31 or 48, you don't get a top 10 player, certainly there are very few impact players in that range.

And I'm afraid I don't understand the obsession with front 7 players hereabouts. It certainly wasn't the front 7 that was our weakness last year, it was the secondary. Nor do i think BB obsesses about the front 7 - he's never drafted a first round pass rusher and he passed last year on DE/DT's far better than the crop available at the end of the first round this year.

I understand your objection to trading up, and I agree that it's highly unlikely that BB will do it but having seen just about every play of Barron's this year, one thing I can assure you of, in 5 years time, Barron will almost certainly be a better player than anyone we draft at 27 and or 31. The guy is an absolute stud.

Actually I'll amend that previous statement. There is one player who i think could possibly be in the same exalted territory as Barron in five years time. The trouble is, drafting him will cause as big a stink. That player is RB Doug Martin.

What value? The value of having TWO picks, rather than ONE. Especially when there's a strong likelihood that one of those picks (27, 31) will probably be traded down for yet another free pick, and another 1st rounder next yr. That's one of the ways that Belichick continues to put this team in position to win not only now, but also in the future too.

You may agree or disagree, but at this point is seems pretty apparent that Belichick tends to see value in physically taking more players, thus increasing his odds at hitting on decent draft talent. It's particularly brilliant when you have several rebuilding needs all at once, as we did in the yrs of 2009-2010, when the front office took 24 picks in those two years. One could debate back and forth whether or not there is still any type of rebuilding phase going on at defense right now.

You may not agree with the 'front 7' mentality, but there are more holes at DT, DE, and OLB than there are at safety...especially if Belichick is planning on using one of Gregory, Moore, Allen, or McCourty (at times in subs) and/or drafting someone in the first 3-4 rounds. The safety position can be addressed much easier than the building of all 3 of those front seven positions that I listed.

It seems as though you really like Mark Barron, and although I don't necesarily agree due to the fact that he's the 'best' in a terribly weak draft class, you may very well be right. Maybe he is one of the high impact players of the draft, I am not questioning your talent assessments.

I do believe that Belichick would not trade 2 of our higher draft picks for the opportunity to draft Mark Barron, but of course that is just my opinion.

 

[Spergon Wynn]

"Who's been wrong more than Charley Casserly since he left the Redskins? Wherever he's been, whatever he's done, his percentage is like a meteorologist..." - William Stephen Belichick

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

I know I'm in the minority here, but I think Mark Barron is overrated. Its not that I don't think he is a very good player, but I see him more as a fringe 1st round prospect rather than a top 15 pick. In an even average Safety class I don't think he gets picked before about 22. And I don't think he is the only one. Harrison Smith is going to be overdrafted , and I could see some of the mid round guys getting pushed up as well. I think we would be better off trying to get through this year with what we have and go after someone next year in what looks to be a much stronger safety class.

Just forget the class and watch the film. The only way one can think of Barron as anything other than a top 15 pick is if they are just reading dated or erroneous scouting reports. I just can't fathom it, his talent is so obvious. Just watch the film, Wilf.