53-man projection + draft needs

[mgteich]

That is lot of roster spots for interior linemen.

Supposedly the Pats really like both Wendell and McDonald. I think both stick, probably as the #2 and #3 centers and #4 and #5 guards.

 

[ATippett56]

I have this as our 53 going into the draft:

QB (3): Hoyer, Brady, Mallett
RB (4): Ridley, Vereen, Woodhead, Fiammetta
WR (6): Edelman, Gonzalez, Slater, Welker, Branch, Lloyd
TE (3): Hernandez, Fells, Gronkowski
OL (9): Waters, Cannon, Wendell, Connolly, Gallery, Mankins, Light, Vollmer, Solder
DL (6): Fanene, Deaderick, Love, Wilfork, Pryor, Brace
DL/LB (4): Carter, Ninkovich, Scott, Cunningham
LB (5): Mayo, Fletcher, Tarpinian, Spikes, White
CB (6): Dowling, Arrington, Allen, Moore, McCourty, Cole
S (4): Chung, Gregory, Barrett, Brown

Italics means could be upgraded as a starter but worthy of a roster spot either way; bold means should probably not be on the roster at all.

With regard to the defensive line, Myron Pryor and Ron Brace both should be upgraded. A seventh defensive lineman may be warranted, especially considering the defensive line injuries that occurred during the 2010 NFL Season for the New England Patriots defense.

Andre Carter has yet to be re-signed and may be a potential candidate for the PUP list, if not retirement returning from torn left quadriceps. The New England Patriots should upgrade the 3-4 outside linebacker position in the 2012 NFL Draft, at worst provide competition during training camp.

Will Allen should be upgraded at the cornerback position. The New England Patriots defense should not rely upon a 33 year old defensive back for depth.

Josh Barrett and Sergio Brown both should be upgraded at the safety position, since neither are starting safeties in the NFL.

 

[mgteich]

Do you believe that we need more than five corners and four safeties? IMHO, we need to draft at least one defensive back. My preference would be a corner early and a safety late.

CORNERS
McCourty, Dowling, Arrington, Moore, Allen/Cole

SAFETY
Chung, Gregory, Barrett, ???

With regard to the defensive line, Myron Pryor and Ron Brace both should be upgraded. A seventh defensive lineman may be warranted, especially considering the defensive line injuries that occurred during the 2010 NFL Season for the New England Patriots defense.

Andre Carter has yet to be re-signed and may be a potential candidate for the PUP list, if not retirement returning from torn left quadriceps. The New England Patriots should upgrade the 3-4 outside linebacker position in the 2012 NFL Draft, at worst provide competition during training camp.

Will Allen should be upgraded at the cornerback position. The New England Patriots defense should not rely upon a 33 year old defensive back for depth.

Josh Barrett and Sergio Brown both should be upgraded at the safety position, since neither are starting safeties in the NFL.

 

[ATippett56]

Do you believe that we need more than five corners and four safeties? IMHO, we need to draft at least one defensive back. My preference would be a corner early and a safety late.

CORNERS
McCourty, Dowling, Arrington, Moore, Allen/Cole

SAFETY
Chung, Gregory, Barrett, ???

I personally would not select a cornerback until the bottom of the second round, considering the depth of the position in the 2012 NFL Draft. Furthermore, I personally would not select a safety until the bottom of the third round.

Will Allen, at the age of 33, does not upgrade the New England Patriots defensive secondary. Marquice Cole competes for a roster spot not only at cornerback but also special teams.

As for Josh Barrett, what has he done in his career to warrant a roster spot for the New England Patriots defense?

The New England Patriots defensive front seven require upgrades and should be prioritized in 2012 NFL Draft.

 

[manxman2601]

A fine assessment!

DE is our greatest 2012 need. As you say, Deaderick shouldn't be the automatic starter. There is very little quality at DE in your projected 53.

OL is clearly a 2013 need (isn't that what the draft is for?). We don't know about 2012, but we certainly expect to need replacements next year for Light, Waters and Gallery.

And yes, we still need a top corner. We could use a safety, but the first 2 will be long gone, and Belichick will likely move on the corners over, even if we draft a safety in the late 3rd or later.

I'm not sure how one can square DE as "our biggest need" and "we could use a safety". Our DL looked more than serviceable last year, particularly when used in 3-4 looks. Our safety play on the other hand was atrocious. Yes both positions need upgrades but I don't see how one deserves a high round upgrade and the other becomes a late round afterthought.

 

[mgteich]

You seem to believe that you can find two 2012 contributors at safety from the bottom of third round onward. Perhaps I have misunderstood you. Certainly, none of the analysts believes that any one team will likely secure 2 safeties that contribute in 2012.

In any case, you want to draft a corner in the late 2nd and a safety in the late 3rd or later. I'm fine with that strategy. While I would consider a corner earlier, the result is likely to be the same. I agree that there is depth at corner in this draft. There also may be value available at the end of the 1st or at the beginning of the 2nd round.
==================================
WE SEEM TO AGREE ON NINE SECONDARY ROSTER SPOTS

CORNERS
McCourty, Dowling, Arlington, Moore, draftee, Cole

SAFETIES
Chung, Gregory, draftee

===================================
TENTH ROSTER SPOT

Since there will be 2 developmental rookies in teh secondary, it seems reasonable to carry 10 defensive backs total.

Belichick has chosen two players to compete for this roster spot.

Belichick thought so much of BARRETT that he paid him a year to be on the IR in 2010. He also expected to develop him into a starter in 2011. How much did he believe this? He fired both Sanders AND Meriweather. Barrett did not have much time to develop when he was injured in 2011. I would note that he was a starter at the time. So, I do not think it difficult to believe that Belichick will give Barrett a chance as our #4 safety.

Belichick signed Allen provides emergency depth. As you know, Belichick PREFERS older players for this role. if everyone else is healthy by the time the season, starts, Allen will likely not make the team. However, it seems to be a good idea to have emergency depth. I understand that you disagree.

I personally would not select a cornerback until the bottom of the second round, considering the depth of the position in the 2012 NFL Draft. Furthermore, I personally would not select a safety until the bottom of the third round.

Will Allen, at the age of 33, does not upgrade the New England Patriots defensive secondary. Marquice Cole competes for a roster spot not only at cornerback but also special teams.

As for Josh Barrett, what has he done in his career to warrant a roster spot for the New England Patriots defense?

The New England Patriots defensive front seven require upgrades and should be prioritized in 2012 NFL Draft.

 

[ATippett56]

You seem to believe that you can find two 2012 contributors at safety from the bottom of third round onward. Perhaps I have misunderstood you. Certainly, none of the analysts believes that any one team will likely secure 2 safeties that contribute in 2012.

So a former seventh round selection from the 2008 NFL Draft can contribute to the New England Patriots defense yet a draft selection from 2012 NFL Draft is unable to? Who says a Markelle Martin or Brandon Taylor, for instance, can't contribute to the New England Patriots defense in 2012? Who says the New England Patriots can't double dip in the third and fourth rounds of the 2012 NFL Draft for safeties?

Belichick thought so much of BARRETT that he paid him a year to be on the IR in 2010. He also expected to develop him into a starter in 2011. How much did he believe this? He fired both Sanders AND Meriweather. Barrett did not have much time to develop when he was injured in 2011. I would note that he was a starter at the time. So, I do not think it difficult to believe that Belichick will give Barrett a chance as our #4 safety.

Meanwhile the New England Patriots pass defense was worse in 2011 than 2010. As for Barrett, it's a simple case of cover your arse in case of injury during training camp.

 

[mgteich]

We're projecting a 53-man roster, not protecting against injuries in training camp. If there aren't enough safeties for camp, we should draft extra players and bring in free agents as injury protection. That doesn't mean that these players will make the 53 man roster. I wouldn't be surprised if no players make the roster who are drafted after the end of the 3rd round. (In this scenario, our 4th would have been traded into 2013 or used to move earlier in the draft).

My position is that the 53 will include two starters from 2011 (Chung and Barrett), a free agent (Gregory) and a draftee. No, I do not think that it covering one's arse to enter the season with two late round rookies, rated as long shots by one and all.
==============================================
So, for me, it is NOT an either or for the final roster. I expect us to have Barrett and a draftee as backups to Chung and Gregory.
==============================================
COVERING ONE'S ARSE
Here I STRONGLY agree with you. Belichick failed miserably by not doing this last year when he dumped both Meriweather and Sanders. Surely, they were worth a roster spot as the 9th defensive backs. This was especially true for Sanders who was a top STer.

I have no problem with double dipping with a second draftee at safety. HOWEVER, I don't think that this is realistic given how few good prospects there are and how many teams want safeties. Perhaps you believe that we will get Barron or Smith. In that case, I would be more likely that we would double dip. I just don't think that we will get one of the early safeties. If we double dip with 2 safeties from the end of the 3rd through the end of the draft, I would expect only one to make the 53 man squad.

I would HOPE that Belichick would take out insurance and keep BARRETT in addition to the draftee on the 53. If the 2nd draftee is good enough to make the roster, we can afford to keep a 5th safety. We've certainly done this before. I would also expect Belichick to bring in another safety (or 2 or 3) for camp.

BOTTOM LINE
Yes, I believe it is more likely that BARRETT makes the roster than a second rookie safety. If we draft Barron or Smith, it is more possible that two safeties make it. Even then, I would keep BARRETT as the 5th safety.

And yes, BARRETT does have considerable advantage, especially early in the season. It seems unlikely that lightning will strike twice. I know it has in the past, but this is a VERY weak set of safety prospects. The situation was MUCH different when we drafted two tight ends. There were lots of quality tight ends in that draft.

A FINAL NOTE
It should matter (in predicting a roster) that Belichick sees something in BARRETT as a young prospect.

So a former seventh round selection from the 2008 NFL Draft can contribute to the New England Patriots defense yet a draft selection from 2012 NFL Draft is unable to? Who says a Markelle Martin or Brandon Taylor, for instance, can't contribute to the New England Patriots defense in 2012? Who says the New England Patriots can't double dip in the third and fourth rounds of the 2012 NFL Draft for safeties?

Meanwhile the New England Patriots pass defense was worse in 2011 than 2010. As for Barrett, it's a simple case of cover your arse in case of injury during training camp.

 

[patchick]

I'm surprised that there's such unanimity in projecting BOTH Dowling and McCourty to corner, despite the strong CB class and the weakness of the safety position in both the roster and the draft class.

 

[State]

I agree, Patchick, in that this year's CB class is VERY strong. We could easily take a top-flight guy with 31, such as Josh Robinson with his rawness but obscene speed or a Jamell Flemings with his penchant for gambling, but his versatility, size, and speed.

untitled4

We need to upgrade the interior of both lines. It becomes even more pressing if Brian Waters hangs it up. And please rotate Vince more. Playing nearly 90 percent of defensive snaps must be wearing down his body.

But getting a DE/OLB has got to priority number one. Something like Branch out of Clemson or even Bruce Irvin (probably an early second, otherwise) out of West Virginia.

BostonHerald.com - Blogs: Rap Sheet» Blog Archive » The Patriots are linked to a couple prospects with character questions

Just say no to Janoris Jerkson.

 

[patsfaninpa]

I'm surprised that there's such unanimity in projecting BOTH Dowling and McCourty to corner, despite the strong CB class and the weakness of the safety position in both the roster and the draft class.

I'd prefer to try McCourty at FS too. Re-up Ihegibo. Draft a cb at number one. We're going to draft a cb early. Might as well get a good one. I'd love to see Stephon Gilmore drop to 27. If McCourty is uncomfortable at FS, you can move him back to cb along with; Arrington, Dowling and our top pick. Should be pretty good there. Get a safety next year. When there are some decent ones out there if McCourty experiment doesn't work.

Secondary(9 players)

Safety
Chung and McCourty
Depth
Gregory and Ihedigbo

Cornerback
Arrington and Dowling
Depth
Top pick(Gilmore), S. Moore and W. Allen(Possibly M. Cole)

 

[State]

Yeah, I can't McCourty consistently lining up at CB with how poorly he played this past season.

I think some people think it was a sophomore slump and he'll grow out of it. But I don't it works that way. So I think we'll see him lining up as FS a good part of the time.

 

[AzPatsFan]

There seems to be a surplus of WRs and a deficit of Safeties.

I think you are all misreading Belichick's plans.

Edelmen becomes a FS, PR and part-time/emergency WR. Allen becomes primarily a Safety with his experience, and declining speed.

I would expect the BPA at the end of the First Round is likely to be a DL, DE/OLB and CB. If Bill chooses three, here is where I expect him to draft, in any order.

 

[rookBoston]

I'm surprised that there's such unanimity in projecting BOTH Dowling and McCourty to corner, despite the strong CB class and the weakness of the safety position in both the roster and the draft class.

Thing with the "McCourty to S" thing, for me, is that I attribute the theory mostly to the media and fans. I haven't seen or heard anything credible associated to the coaching staff to indicate this idea is real or permanent. Also, lest we forget, McCourty was a pro-bowler at CB in 2010. I'm not going to start listing him at S until we see him regularly practicing and playing there in games.

 

[patchick]

Thing with the "McCourty to S" thing, for me, is that I attribute the theory mostly to the media and fans. I haven't seen or heard anything credible associated to the coaching staff to indicate this idea is real or permanent. Also, lest we forget, McCourty was a pro-bowler at CB in 2010. I'm not going to start listing him at S until we see him regularly practicing and playing there in games.

I think it's a bit of an idee fixe for me with Dowling...he was my top SAFETY prospect last year! But he did look good at corner in his limited chances, so who knows.

It just seems to me that they entire roster looks stronger and more balanced if you move one of the existing big corners to S and draft one of the good-looking CBs, rather than picking over the dregs of a weak safety class.

 

[Avenger]

Offense:
T. Brady
B. Hoyer
R. Mallet
K. Moore
W. Welker
B. Lloyd
C. Ochocinco
D. Stallworth
D. Coale
M. Slater
R. Gronkowski
A. Hernandez
D. Fells
S. Vereen
S. Ridley
D. Woodhead
S. Larson
B. Waters
R. Gallery
S. Vollmer
M. Light
N. Solder
M. Cannon
D. Connolly
D. Molk
Defense:
R. Dowling
S. Moore
D. McCourty
P. Chung
K. Arrington
S. Gregory S
T. Robinson
H. Smith
B. Boykin
J. Edelman
J. Mayo
B. Spikes
B. Irvin
T. White
R. Ninkovich
N. Koutouvides
B. Carpenter
V. Curry
V. Wilfork
J. Chapman
K. Love
M. Pryor
T. Scott
J. Fanene
Special Teams:
S. Gostkowski
Z. Mesko
D. Aiken
PUP List:
A. Carter
L. Mankins
A. Gonzalez

That gives us 52 (Need the 53rd player RB maybe?) active, 3 (at least) on the PUP list. I can see Hoyer getting traded during the first half of the season opening a slot for one of the PUP Players, IR additions could open others.