Pro Football Weekly draft value chart

[PATSNUTme]

I always find this interesting and it will be updated each week leading up to the draft.

You should read the explaination of the chart and howand why it may differ form their player ranking. "The value board below is based on considerable feedback from NFL teams and projects the league value of players"

Probably the best way to look at it is 1a 1-10 1b 11-21- 1c 22-32

ProFootballWeekly.com - PFW's exclusive draft value chart

 

[Off The Grid]

Man, that is beautifull. :rocker:

It's really remarkable, considering the source ~ ScuttleButt, during the height of DisInformation Season ~ but there is an unmistakable air of accuracy to this Chart ~ as accurate as such speculation can possibly hope to be, of course.

If anyone's got a more accurate Analysis of True Market Value, I'd love to see it.

 

[PATSNUTme]

Man, that is beautifull. :rocker:

It's really remarkable, considering the source ~ ScuttleButt, during the height of DisInformation Season ~ but there is an unmistakable air of accuracy to this Chart ~ as accurate as such speculation can possibly hope to be, of course.

If anyone's got a more accurate Analysis of True Market Value, I'd love to see it.

You are certainly right about disinformation season.

If it follows the past couple of years, it will get more interesting when he starts color coding different players for injury or character concerns. This is also feed to him by NFL contacts and should be taken with a grain of salt.

 

[Off The Grid]

Really remarkable...

Virtually every estimation rang as astonishingly accurate to my eyes, with but one exception:

Shea McClellin in the Mid 3rd.

That...would be a dream.

Does anyone care to speculate about the accuracy of that estimate??

 

[everlong]

Really remarkable...

Virtually every estimation rang as astonishingly accurate to my eyes, with but one exception:

Shea McClellin in the Mid 3rd.

That...would be a dream.

Does anyone care to speculate about the accuracy of that estimate??

McClellin stood out for me as well. He's been steadily moving up to the point where I've seen him in the low end of the first round. They also have Gilmore in the middle of the first which I find surprising. I think he's more of an early day two prospect. I also don't see Baron as middle of the first or Harrison bottom of the first. Bequette and Crick both in the 4th seems low.

This reflects my opinions on Hightower being up in the grouping of Upshaw and Kuechly and with Cox gone early and Brockers not long after.

If this held to form I'd want Kirkpatrick as the BPA at a position of need at 27 and then trade 31 to pick up more picks with the value being better with the flat talent after that.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Going by their board we could have something like this;

1a Dre Kirkpatrick - DB - Alabama - Might even project to FS if not cb

1b Whitney Mercilus - OLB - Illinois - Could he be that elusive pass rusher

2a Devon Still - DE - Penn St - Two gapper

2b Shea McClellin - LB - Boise St - Back up and groom to replace Ninko. Could prob slide inside if Mayo or Spikes injured.

3 TY Hilton or Joe Adams - WR - Immediate help in return game with potential to develop as a good wr.

4 Markelle Martin - S - Ok St - Can't believe he falls this far. Or, Brandon Taylor - S - LSU. If BB projects Kirkpatrick to FS, maybe Ron Brooks - CB - LSU.

 

[manxman2601]

McClellin stood out for me as well. He's been steadily moving up to the point where I've seen him in the low end of the first round. They also have Gilmore in the middle of the first which I find surprising. I think he's more of an early day two prospect. I also don't see Baron as middle of the first or Harrison bottom of the first. Bequette and Crick both in the 4th seems low.

This reflects my opinions on Hightower being up in the grouping of Upshaw and Kuechly and with Cox gone early and Brockers not long after.

If this held to form I'd want Kirkpatrick as the BPA at a position of need at 27 and then trade 31 to pick up more picks with the value being better with the flat talent after that.

This is becoming the norm amongst the many sources I read, if they're right, Gilmore will be the second corner taken. NFL Network are really pimping him into an almost top 10 slot.

Going by their board we could have something like this;

1a Dre Kirkpatrick - DB - Alabama - Might even project to FS if not cb

1b Whitney Mercilus - OLB - Illinois - Could he be that elusive pass rusher

2a Devon Still - DE - Penn St - Two gapper

2b Shea McClellin - LB - Boise St - Back up and groom to replace Ninko. Could prob slide inside if Mayo or Spikes injured.

3 TY Hilton or Joe Adams - WR - Immediate help in return game with potential to develop as a good wr.

4 Markelle Martin - S - Ok St - Can't believe he falls this far. Or, Brandon Taylor - S - LSU. If BB projects Kirkpatrick to FS, maybe Ron Brooks - CB - LSU.

I've had Kirkpatrick rated highly personally for two main reasons:

1. He's spectacular in run support and in sniffing out and breaking up screen passes. I think this would be a big tick for BB.

2. I think it was the Marquis Maze injury in the Championship game when he was hobbling off the field. Dre Kirkpatrick was the first 'Bama guy to sprint from the sideline to help carry Maze off the field. And you see that type of thing from him all the time. He's often the lead blocker on interception and fumble returns, one of the first to congratulate another player, the player being most active in supporting another injured player. I've watched a lot of Alabama games and Kirkpatrick always stood out as a really good team player. Have to think he'd be a plus locker room influence.

 

[Off The Grid]

This is becoming the norm amongst the many sources I read, if they're right, Gilmore will be the second corner taken. NFL Network are really pimping him into an almost top 10 slot.



I've had Kirkpatrick rated highly personally for two main reasons:

1. He's spectacular in run support and in sniffing out and breaking up screen passes. I think this would be a big tick for BB.

2. I think it was the Marquis Maze injury in the Championship game when he was hobbling off the field. Dre Kirkpatrick was the first 'Bama guy to sprint from the sideline to help carry Maze off the field. And you see that type of thing from him all the time. He's often the lead blocker on interception and fumble returns, one of the first to congratulate another player, the player being most active in supporting another injured player. I've watched a lot of Alabama games and Kirkpatrick always stood out as a really good team player. Have to think he'd be a plus locker room influence.

Roger that. Great stuff, Brother Manx.

I've always been high on KirkPatrick ~ who hasn't been?? ~ but what you've just shared, here, had completely escaped my attention. Speaking for myself, his Stock just got a big boost.

 

[rookBoston]

Yeah, McClellin seems way out of line at 3B. I would take him in the 2nd.

Konz at 2A is not a big shock, but it is a bit surprising that he's rated behind his teammate Zeitler who's 1C.

Devon Still at 2B is surprising, and even more surprising is that he's stacked behind Ta'amu, Reyes and Thompson. wth?

Chase Minnefield at 5A seems like a bargain.

Vontaze Burfict at 7B seems WAY TOO HIGH, lol... that guy is a wasted pick

This is a great framework and a great way to view the draft. I've got it bookmarked.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

This is a great framework and a great way to view the draft. I've got it bookmarked.

Does anybody have a link to his 2011 chart? I'm curious to see how that one played out....and can't seem to find it online.

 

[mgteich]

I usually find this chart very useful. Perhaps there is a it of a lag in updating for late moves. McClellin certainly seems a round late.

 

[PATSNUTme]

Does anybody have a link to his 2011 chart? I'm curious to see how that one played out....and can't seem to find it online.

Ask, and ye shall receive.

ProFootballWeekly.com - PFW's exclusive draft value chart

 

[manxman2601]

Yeah, McClellin seems way out of line at 3B. I would take him in the 2nd.

Konz at 2A is not a big shock, but it is a bit surprising that he's rated behind his teammate Zeitler who's 1C.

Devon Still at 2B is surprising, and even more surprising is that he's stacked behind Ta'amu, Reyes and Thompson. wth?

Chase Minnefield at 5A seems like a bargain.

Vontaze Burfict at 7B seems WAY TOO HIGH, lol... that guy is a wasted pick

This is a great framework and a great way to view the draft. I've got it bookmarked.

It is a surprise considering he was the top ranked DT pre-combine. But a second round grade is consistent with what's being seen in mocks:

Kiper - 2nd Round
McShay - 2nd round
Rang - pick #25
Bucky Brooks - Not in first round
Chad Reuter - Not in first round
Mayock - Now has him ranked joint 5th DT with Kendall Reyes

Doesn't look like his falling stock is an aberration on PFW.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

Ask, and ye shall receive.

ProFootballWeekly.com - PFW's exclusive draft value chart

Thanks, it looks like teams valued and selected players pretty much as he had them slotted with one or two exceptions...

 

[captain stone]

Thanks, it looks like teams valued and selected players pretty much as he had them slotted with one or two exceptions...

Bill Belichick, Steven Ridley, Markell Carter & Malodorus Williams all say Wha?

 

[ay-yo]

Given that board:

1a. Dre Kirkpatrick
1b. traded for a 2 and 3
2a. Devon Still
2b. LaVonte David
2c. Josh Chapman
3a. McClellin
3b. Irvin
4. Markelle Martin

FS, CB, 2 DE, 1 coverage LB, 2 DT

 

[State]

Please, Ay-yo, that would be insane. I really like Josh Chapman in the third round, if we can get him.

One thing these boys have done, which I predict will occur in the draft, is my binky Bruce Irvin will be taken before the boy all you guys are falling over yourselves for, the unimpressive Shea McClellin.

Have you seen his Combine results? Not even close to Bruce Irvin's. And according to Ochmed, McClellin doesn't have an impressive tape from Boise. I trust Ochmed.

 

[State]

These guys are on to the physically talented duo from Michigan State, both of whom run 4.4 forties, Edwin Baker, RB, and Keyshawn Martin, WR.

Baker in the bottom of the third and Martin in the middle of the fourth? Yeah, that looks about right. Baker is very strong (I think 31 bench presses at the Combine.), low center of gravity; and Martin is very quick, an excellent route runner.

 

[Metaphors]

I like this format for identifying when position runs are likely to occur. Here is my take on the 1st two rounds for the Pats:

Pick #27
Start: The CB position is really deep and all non-Claiborne prospects are flawed. These dynamics taken together should push the 2nd tier CBs down lower in the 1st round than they typically would be.
Middle: Rush ends (OLB/DE) will be flying off the board at this point. If by some chance Belichick actually is going to pull the trigger, he may be in prime position to do it.
End: There are a good number of DT (or bigger DE) prospects early in this draft class...but the pickin's may be slim by #27. Unless you like Still (and I don't) then a trade-up or a Wilfork-like slider may be needed.

Pick #31
Start: This is likely when the 2nd tier WRs will start to go. Many are predicting it to be earlier but they always seem to slide a bit.
Middle: The CB run continues and this is the area of the draft where the Pats seem to go DB shopping.
End: Teams looking for immediate OT help better get some on the 1st day or the cupboard could be bare before too long on day 2. Best chance for a team looking to trade into this spot or #27.

Pick #48
Start: The shine has faded on several interior OL prospects, but this is about when they start to look like a value again.
Middle: A prime time for WRs.
End: Better get your rush end by this point. The leftovers will likely be projects and misfits. The CB supply will also start drying up.

Pick #62
Start: Safeties and TEs should be mostly ignored to this point so it would be a good chance to get a jump on them.
Middle: Should be the time for contenders to build depth on the OL and DL.
End: By this point you are just shopping for potential at WR. May be able to still find a CB, but waiting any longer is a real risk.

My thoughts:

- This draft class looks to be about 70-80 prospects deep before you start holding your nose as you fill out the draft card. Doesn't mean there won't be players after that point, but I wouldn't want to depend on finding them.

- Unless a DT that the Pats love (Fletcher Cox maybe?) falls to #27, I really see the Pats trading down to a team looking for OT help. Once you get past Adams, Martin and Massie, it gets scary. Atlanta at #55 is a likely partner IMO.

- The Pats seem to be solidly positioned to get outside pass rush (but that trick never works :bricks, CB and interior OL help. Not so much for the DL.

- I expect the later picks (#93 and #126) to be fliers...sliders and injury reclamation projects. Assuming they aren't traded into 2013.

 

[State]

I completely agree with the chart rating Fletcher Cox higher than Dontari Poe.

But what if Dallas loses its senses and picks Poe before Cox is picked? Rumor is that they are so enamored of Poe they're trying to keep it a secret.

That might start a mini slip for Cox, causing New England to think they may be able to trade up with Kansas City or Seattle to get him. We'd have to give up both firsts, of course.

But that would be worth it for Cox.