I like this format for identifying when position runs are likely to occur. Here is my take on the 1st two rounds for the Pats:
Pick #27
Start: The
CB position is really deep and all non-Claiborne prospects are flawed. These dynamics taken together should push the 2nd tier CBs down lower in the 1st round than they typically would be.
Middle: Rush ends (
OLB/DE) will be flying off the board at this point. If by some chance Belichick actually is going to pull the trigger, he may be in prime position to do it.
End: There are a good number of
DT (or bigger DE) prospects early in this draft class...but the pickin's may be slim by #27. Unless you like Still (and I don't) then a trade-up or a Wilfork-like slider may be needed.
Pick #31
Start: This is likely when the 2nd tier
WRs will start to go. Many are predicting it to be earlier but they always seem to slide a bit.
Middle: The
CB run continues and this is the area of the draft where the Pats seem to go DB shopping.
End: Teams looking for immediate
OT help better get some on the 1st day or the cupboard could be bare before too long on day 2. Best chance for a team looking to trade into this spot or #27.
Pick #48
Start: The shine has faded on several interior
OL prospects, but this is about when they start to look like a value again.
Middle: A prime time for
WRs.
End: Better get your
rush end by this point. The leftovers will likely be projects and misfits. The
CB supply will also start drying up.
Pick #62
Start:
Safeties and
TEs should be mostly ignored to this point so it would be a good chance to get a jump on them.
Middle: Should be the time for contenders to build depth on the
OL and
DL.
End: By this point you are just shopping for potential at
WR. May be able to still find a
CB, but waiting any longer is a real risk.
My thoughts:
- This draft class looks to be about 70-80 prospects deep before you start holding your nose as you fill out the draft card. Doesn't mean there won't be players after that point, but I wouldn't want to depend on finding them.
- Unless a DT that the Pats love (Fletcher Cox maybe?) falls to #27, I really see the Pats trading down to a team looking for OT help. Once you get past Adams, Martin and Massie, it gets scary. Atlanta at #55 is a likely partner IMO.
- The Pats seem to be solidly positioned to get outside pass rush (but that trick never works :bricks
, CB and interior OL help. Not so much for the DL.
- I expect the later picks (#93 and #126) to be fliers...sliders and injury reclamation projects. Assuming they aren't traded into 2013.