Double Drafting

[rookBoston]

Read this about the Patriot's trend/strategy around double drafting at the same position, and see what you think -

Draft Strategy: Double Drafting | NFL Draft Hub

Not mentioned in the article was that Mayo and Guyton were rookies in the same year. Guyton was UDFA, but the rookie experience was the same. I think there is something important in the idea of two rookies learning the playbook together. Changes the dynamic with their coaches, changes how they can observe other people make mistakes and learn from that, too. I think BB is a brilliant teacher, as much as anything else, and I do believe he thinks about these things.

Also, I think Vereen practices harder knowing that he and Ridley have an equal shot at a starting nod. Gronkowski and Hernandez have been a home run for how two guys at the same position can come in and feed off each other's success.

I posted a mock draft that had us picking Nick Perry (27), Andre Branch (31), Shae McClellin (48) and Vinny Curry (63) with our first four picks. That may be taking the idea a bit too far, but here's what I'd say about to the positive: I can promise that our game play at OLB would be MUCH better... and I don't even know which of those guys would get the credit. Our STs would be deeper and more explosive. And a long time roster weakness suddenly becomes a position of youth and incredible upside. Those four guys feeding off each other every day in practice, swapping notes on dropping a shoulder or reading a screen pass.

Maybe all four guys is too much. Let's cut it back to just Andre Branch (27) and Shae McClellin (31). Tie them in with Ninkovich and Cunningham, and have them duke it out for starting snaps.

 

[captain stone]

Pass-Rushers! Times 2 (or 3, or 4...)!

If Bill doesn't double-up on that position this year, then there's no hope for him, or us.

 

[fester]

2009

Pass-Rushers! Times 2 (or 3, or 4...)!

If Bill doesn't double-up on that position this year, then there's no hope for him, or us.

2010

Pass-Rushers! Times 2 (or 3, or 4...)!

If Bill doesn't double-up on that position this year, then there's no hope for him, or us.

2011

Pass-Rushers! Times 2 (or 3, or 4...)!

If Bill doesn't double-up on that position this year, then there's no hope for him, or us.

2012

Pass-Rushers! Times 2 (or 3, or 4...)!

If Bill doesn't double-up on that position this year, then there's no hope for him, or us.

You've been repeating this mantra on this board for as long as I remember seeing you on the board. Doesn't it get tired to not be listened to by an obvious incompetent who only manages to field play-off teams almost every year despite not listening to you.

 

[WhiZa]

I could see him doing a double dip on a position of significant need. Like RB last year. Right now we have a bigger need at safety then we do at OLB. Maybe 2 safeties in the 2nd round?

 

[rookBoston]

I could see him doing a double dip on a position of significant need. Like RB last year. Right now we have a bigger need at safety then we do at OLB. Maybe 2 safeties in the 2nd round?

I could buy that. But if he's shooting for the secondary, the better bet is double down at CB. Physical CB talent (the only kind BB is likely to draft) can still shift into a FS role without too much trouble. CB is scarcer find.

What about drafting Devon Still and Jerell Worthy? That would be a shot in the arm, too.

 

[BelichickFan]

I could buy that. But if he's shooting for the secondary, the better bet is double down at CB. Physical CB talent (the only kind BB is likely to draft) can still shift into a FS role without too much trouble. CB is scarcer find.

What about drafting Devon Still and Jerell Worthy? That would be a shot in the arm, too.

I have Kendall Reyes and Chandler Jones in the first round right now. Not that I love that but other than Vince our DL sucks. S U C K S.

Nanne will help, Love and Deaderick are OK. But that's what we have.

:bricks:

My hope is Reyes could become a decent 5 technique who can do some pass rushing on 3rd down and Jones could be a RDE similar to what Carter was last year (same size, both small but physical enough to be OK against the run and athletic enough to rush the passer).

I then have double LB in 2&3 with Wagner and Irvin. Throw in Smith with the other 2 and Marvin Jones in the 4th and there's my draft.

 

[Avenger]

I've edited this a few times, I'm pretty sure all the pick #s are right now, kind of takes the double dip to the max.

23. Dont’a Hightower, LB, Alabama (From DET)
27. Sent to DET with pick 31 for picks #23, 54, 87, 222, 242
31. See above
48. Harrison Smith, S, Notre Dame
54. Vinny Curry, DE/OLB, Marshall (From DET)
62. Bruce Irvin, DE/OLB, West Virginia
85. Casey Hayward, CB, Vanderbilt (From DET)
93. Trenton Robinson, FS, Michigan State
126. David Molk, C, Michigan
222. Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State(From SEA via DET)
242. Jaymes Brooks, OG, Virginia Tech (From NYG via DET)

 

[BritPat]

In terms of double drafting, BB has been doing it for a while - but not in the way you think. He's actually drafted at least two players from the same school 8 times in the last 12 years:

2001 - Brock Williams, Jabari Holloway - Notre Dame.
2002 - Rohan Davey, Jarvis Green - LSU.
2003 - Ty Warren, Bethel Johnson - Texas A&M.
2005 - Logan Mankins, James Sanders - Fresno State.
2006 - Chad Jackson, Jeremy Mincey - Florida.
2008 - Brandon Meriweather, Kareem Brown - Miami.
2010 - Brandon Spikes, Jermaine Cunningham, Aaron Hernandez - Florida.
2011 - Marcus Cannon, Malcolm Williams - TCU.

 

[WhiZa]

In terms of double drafting, BB has been doing it for a while - but not in the way you think. He's actually drafted at least two players from the same school 8 times in the last 12 years:

2001 - Brock Williams, Jabari Holloway - Notre Dame.
2002 - Rohan Davey, Jarvis Green - LSU.
2003 - Ty Warren, Bethel Johnson - Texas A&M.
2005 - Logan Mankins, James Sanders - Fresno State.
2006 - Chad Jackson, Jeremy Mincey - Florida.
2008 - Brandon Meriweather, Kareem Brown - Miami.
2010 - Brandon Spikes, Jermaine Cunningham, Aaron Hernandez - Florida.
2011 - Marcus Cannon, Malcolm Williams - TCU.

Makes me wonder how this aligns with his proday visits. I know his was in Florida in 2010

 

[WhiZa]

I could buy that. But if he's shooting for the secondary, the better bet is double down at CB. Physical CB talent (the only kind BB is likely to draft) can still shift into a FS role without too much trouble. CB is scarcer find.

What about drafting Devon Still and Jerell Worthy? That would be a shot in the arm, too.

I was looking at Safeties and found a lot of them played CB in college. It would be interesting to know which S can play CB and vice versa in this years draft. We know that was a selling point for drafting Meriweather

 

[Off The Grid]

You drafted the CornerBack.

You took a bite.

And then you drafted another CornerBack.

That's like drafting an whole Secondary!!

From now on, when you draft a CornerBack, just take one bite...and end it!!

Well, I'm sorry, Timmy...

I don't draft that way.

 

[Off The Grid]

No need to read any article: This is a theme that's been kicked around these parts for years.

And frankly, I think there's nothing to it.

There's no particular advantage to doubling down, so why would he make a point to do so?

 

[Why?PJ]

No need to read any article: This is a theme that's been kicked around these parts for years.

And frankly, I think there's nothing to it.

There's no particular advantage to doubling down, so why would he make a point to do so?

yea, because BB has been doing it for years.

The advantage is you get 2 players at a position of need, and hopefully they can learn from each other and both become decent players. Or at least one of them is good.

But there is certainly an advantage of 2 players coming in trying to learn a new system together.

 

[Off The Grid]

No need to read any article: This is a theme that's been kicked around these parts for years.

And frankly, I think there's nothing to it.

There's no particular advantage to doubling down, so why would he make a point to do so?

yea, because BB has been doing it for years.

The advantage is you get 2 players at a position of need, and hopefully they can learn from each other and both become decent players. Or at least one of them is good.

But there is certainly an advantage of 2 players coming in trying to learn a new system together.

Unsubstantiated, sarcastic drivel is no substitute for a point. Simmer down.

What I'm saying ~ quite clearly ~ is that I highly doubt he makes a point to Double Dip.

Yet I'm more than open to the possibility that he makes it a point to do so.

But your weak, blank assertion will hardly suffice to persuade me, my friend.

***

In the natural ebb and flow of things, any team will often draft two guys of the same position, without any particular strategy to do so, simply based on who they think is the BPA at each of their Picks, throughout the course of the Draft. That's obvious...right?

And while Synergy and Collaboration are good Arguments in support of this notion of Deliberate Double Dipping, they are perfectly counterbalanced ~ some would say: overwhelmed ~ by the obvious perils of infusing a disproportionately large influx of Inexperience at one position...don't you think?

I, myself, have often been criticized for precisely that thing ~ too much Youth and Inexperience ~ in my Mocks, as I like to festoon my Mock Rosters with Rookies.

But I do so because I prefer a talented Rookie to a talentless Veteran, not because of some notion that Double Dipping on Rookies is, in and of itself, an especially smart move.

 

[rookBoston]

Chandler Jones and Jake Bequette... two of the top four picks at the same position. Fits.

 

[fester]

No need to read any article: This is a theme that's been kicked around these parts for years.

And frankly, I think there's nothing to it.

There's no particular advantage to doubling down, so why would he make a point to do so?

Let's make a few assumptions:

1) The Patriots will often determine that they don't like a particular unit/position coach grouping on their current roster and would like to fix that problem in the draft

2) Within each position group, there are unique twists/sub-positions such as Will versus Sam, Move versus Inline, Flanker versus Slot.

3) The draft is uncertain, the #1 pick has a probability of failure, and the #256 pick has a probability of failure. These probabilities are very different, but they are non-zero.

4) The Patriots seem to adapt a combination draft grading strategy of BPA at a position of need and value grouping/clustering.

5) The success/failure of each rookie is mostly independent of each other (minimal co-variance)

So with these assumptions, going into a draft with the determination that the plan is to hopefully fix one area of the team if there is anything vaguely resembling a BPA at a position of need/value group fit, double-dipping makes sense as it providers some protection against failure of a single rookie or at least identifies the failure point as systemic (position coach, general scheme or talent evaluation process), plus it allows the Patriots to address the different components of a position group.

We may be making a mountain out of a mole-hill here, as one could argue that the Patriots were intent on drafting a TE in 2010 with Gronk and could not believe their luck that Hernandez who they rated highly, was still available at a dirt cheap pick so they lucked into an accidental double-draft. one could argue that the Patriots were not looking to doubledraft OTs or RBs last year, or 4-3DE/3-4 OLB projects this year or OTs in 2002 etc. But there seems to be a pattern where the Patriots double-draft position groups between rounds 1 through 4 (I figure anything after 4 is almost purely a BPA/single role flyer that a different strategy is in play there), and at least one of the double drafted players get significant playing time very early on
because they either beat out veterans, or there really were not any entrenched vet starters.

One or two double drafts could be coincidence, but I think we are at a pattern point by now.

 

[ay-yo]

Great post fester. I'd also look at the state of our roster at the times of the double dip.

Ben Watson, starting TE for multiple seasons, signs w/ another team in March 2010. We don't sign a starting TE before the draft. Gronk and Hernandez are drafted in April 2010.

We had no LT on the roster in April 2011. Previous starter Matt Light was thinking about retirement. We took Solder and Cannon.

Woodhead was the only RB on the roster in April 2011. Previous starter BJGE was a FA. We draft Ridley and Vereen.

Previous starter (Carter) and #2 DE (Anderson) are both not on our roster. Carter looks to be a ways off from playing still. Patriots have only added Scott who has not done much in previous two seasons. We add Jones and Bequette.

Coincidence? There's too much evidence for me to believe that. Need is clearly part of the grade assigned to prospects.