Rising and Falling

[rookBoston]

Lots of talk about players rising and falling. Some of that, and how it might impact the Pats:

- Dontari Poe (falling), after getting shocked by this incredible measurables at the Combine, seems like draft gurus are taking another look at his game film... and deciding that he's maybe not that great after all. What it means to us: Fletcher Cox will probably go even higher than we thought, d%#*!@t, and probably out of range. Poe might come into range for us, but is he someone we want to spend an early pick on? If he dropped to #31, that might start to feel like value. But I'm not too eager to trade up for it.

- Courtney Upshaw (falling), after showing no particular improvement during his Pro Day after a disappointing Combine. What it means to us: a sure fire Top-15 pick dropping into the 20s would be a nice treat. If he lasts to #27, I think BB will pull the trigger, setting what I think is the floor on Upshaw's freefall.

- Shae McClellin (rising), all my efforts to not talk too much about McClellin are for naught now that Mayock has upgraded him to the #2 DE/OLB on his board after Melvin Ingram, and ahead of Andre Branch and Whitney Mercilus. NFL.com news: Draft positional rankings: Pro days influence player stocks Thanks for nothing, Mayock. What it means to us: no chance that he's stilling there at #48 anymore. Now, if we want him, it'll probably cost us #31.

- Michael Floyd (rising), his film is making an impression and it seems people are more willing to overlook his off-field stuff. What it means to us: not a damn thing, since we wouldn't have traded that high for him anyway. But maybe it creates a bit of a scramble for WRs in the first round, pulling Wright and Hill higher than they might have gone, and pushes some of the defensive players down towards us.

- Brock Osweiler (rising), hearing rumors that Osweiler and Weeden may get consideration at the bottom of the first round for QB needy teams like Cleveland and Miami. Maybe they're just saying that to justify passing on Tannehill. But, whatever. What it means to us: could only be good news if some team is willing to give us solid trade value for one of our first round picks.

- Stephon Gilmore (rising), Gilmore has always been a 2nd round prospect, but now people are starting to slot him ahead of Kirkpatrick and Jenkins. wtf? I don't buy it, but that doesn't mean I like Kirkpatrick or Jenkins any better than I did last week. What it means for us: maybe nothing. I think the 1st round CBs are sketchy as a group. I'd rather take Minnefield or Hosley in the 2nd.

 

[Patriot Missile]

McClellin is a good story for those with aspirations to better themselves through hard work. I'm happy for the guy and actually pretty amazed someone could go from a 5th or 6th rounder in a matter of months. I really want the guy on the Pats but 31 seems a little high. but i still love him at 48. I'd still consider him at 31 depending on who is still on the board.

Poe would be hard to pass up on at 27 or 31. The potential is there but it is also there for other guys in the later rounds as well. Doubt BB grabs him in the first round with as little good film as he showed in College.

Gilmore is a guy I like in the 1st. That pro day was pretty sick and he does show big time ability to close on the ball. With his quick twitch speed I could see him as a pretty reliable slot cb.

Upshaw despite his workouts still has some of the best film of any college player period. If he falls to 27 I take him every time.

 

[VrabelJr]

I love Branch and McClellin but I just don't see BB drafting players from Clemson or Boise. He never has before...

 

[Patriot Missile]

I love Branch and McClellin but I just don't see BB drafting players from Clemson or Boise. He never has before...

You probably never thought BB would ever draft a QB out of Kent St to play Wr either? You never know.

 

[Sciz]

I love Branch and McClellin but I just don't see BB drafting players from Clemson or Boise. He never has before...

Dave Stachelski, TE from Boise, 5th round in 2000

 

[BelichickFan]

You probably never thought BB would ever draft a QB out of Kent St to play Wr either? You never know.

Dave Stachelski, TE from Boise, 5th round in 2000

I think he was referring to high picks not these lower picks.

Bill usually does draft high from big schools and big conferences. Mankins would be a notable exception although Bill's trust in Pat Hill may have helped there.

About McClellen, if you are willing to take him at 31 you may want to take him at 27 because I think Green Bay will be interested in putting him across from Mathews at pick 28.

 

[Sciz]

I think he was referring to high picks not these lower picks

Totally. I just had to be that guy. I was surprised to see no Clemson guys, though.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Totally. I just had to be that guy. I was surprised to see no Clemson guys, though.

I'm surprised as well, but I have heard various rumors about the atmosphere of entitlement at Clemson. I hesitate to put much stock into rumors, but then again many of their recent players have done very little at the next level.

Nonetheless, I hope that Branch represents a first. I think he will be significantly better as a pro than as a collegiate athlete. I see a Suggs-like career for him if he goes to the right team.

 

[manxman2601]

- Shae McClellin (rising), all my efforts to not talk too much about McClellin are for naught now that Mayock has upgraded him to the #2 DE/OLB on his board after Melvin Ingram, and ahead of Andre Branch and Whitney Mercilus. NFL.com news: Draft positional rankings: Pro days influence player stocks Thanks for nothing, Mayock. What it means to us: no chance that he's stilling there at #48 anymore. Now, if we want him, it'll probably cost us #31.

Even that might not be enough. Discussed on twitter today? Shea McLellin to the Chargers @18.

Even if that's a bit much, there's a bit of a collection of pass rushers towards the end of R1, top of R2. Mercilus, Perry, McLellin, Curry, Branch are all being big boarded into that range at the moment.

As for other risers, talk about Weeden to the Browns @22 (would make perfect sense if they went Blackmon @4), Silatolu is seeing some first round consideration and don't forget Alshon Jeffrey's pro day.

 

[patsfan55]

We didn't take Lamar Woodley when it was pretty obvious we should have. We're not taking a poor man's Lamar Woodley (aka Courtney Upshaw) the second go around.

 

[Patriot Missile]

Even that might not be enough. Discussed on twitter today? Shea McLellin to the Chargers @18.

Even if that's a bit much, there's a bit of a collection of pass rushers towards the end of R1, top of R2. Mercilus, Perry, McLellin, Curry, Branch are all being big boarded into that range at the moment.

As for other risers, talk about Weeden to the Browns @22 (would make perfect sense if they went Blackmon @4), Silatolu is seeing some first round consideration and don't forget Alshon Jeffrey's pro day.

Weeden in the first blows me away. Silatolu in the first would be a surprise due to his competition.

Lot of people sleeping on Jeffrey including myself. When you look at this youtube highlight reel and the total ownage of Alabama's secondary back in 2010 you got to wonder how gifted of a player are you going to pass on here.

Alshon Jeffery vs. Alabama (2010) - YouTube

 

[manxman2601]

Weeden in the first blows me away. Silatolu in the first would be a surprise due to his competition.

Lot of people sleeping on Jeffrey including myself. When you look at this youtube highlight reel and the total ownage of Alabama's secondary back in 2010 you got to wonder how gifted of a player are you going to pass on here.

Alshon Jeffery vs. Alabama (2010) - YouTube

There's not many who doubt Weeden's first round skillset, it's his age that's the concern. Teams will feel that by the time Weeden has fully engaged with an NFL offense, 1-2 years of his effective playing days are done. This might not be such a problem for the Browns however. They are in prime position to draft Justin Blackmon and that can only help Weeden adapt quicker. I can see that combination being fairly attractive to the Browns when there are only four QB's who could potentially be franchise guys in this draft. Throw in a Doug Martin with their second, and they hit on their offensive playmaker needs and get a franchise QB as well.

 

[BradyBranch39]

Really don't understand the Osweiler hype. The guy is terrible.

I'd rather have Gabbert.

 

[DW Toys]

Weeden in the first blows me away. Silatolu in the first would be a surprise due to his competition.

Lot of people sleeping on Jeffrey including myself. When you look at this youtube highlight reel and the total ownage of Alabama's secondary back in 2010 you got to wonder how gifted of a player are you going to pass on here.

Alshon Jeffery vs. Alabama (2010) - YouTube

I am buying on Jeffrey. Also had worst QBs in SEC. Separation was his weakness. Route running was not bad. Hard to separate when everyone in the stands including the parking lot attendants know if S. Carolina was going to pass, it was going one way. Great experience for him to be triple Teams so he is ready for the Pros.

Here is how this separation thing works for all of the Draft experts. If the QB does not deliver the ball on time, the WR has to fight for it in front of a crowd. These experts should know this. No excuse for not doing your homework. Where he goes will determine what kind of Pro this kid is. All QBs with superb timing like Pats, Broncos, Pack or Chargers. I would have yo include Big Ben. As big and fast as this kid is he would be lethal at Pitts. No off field issues. A yes sir, no sir type of kid.

Ate Barron and Kirkpatrick alive. I believe they are #1 picks. If this kid ever had a QB, look out. Make Moss type catches.

Falling LB Zack Brown. Said he avoids contact. He is playing the wrong position. He is the best Safety in the Draft. Hand held 4.29 speed. Record breaking 60 meter track guy ay UNC. 3 ints in 2011 as an LB. All over the field. Coverage is his best game. Nose for the ball. Faster then every WR on the Pats schedule and he will make a tackle.

Fleener. They say he is moving up artificially. I see him as a better, faster, bigger Hernadez who can play WR at 6'6" with 4.7 speed and can actually block a bit in the TE spot. Would be a very good flexible pick here, Protection of TE injuries and if there are contract issues with present TE core.

DW toys

 

[Patriot Missile]

Ate Barron and Kirkpatrick alive. I believe they are #1 picks. If this kid ever had a QB, look out. Make Moss type catches.

Falling LB Zack Brown. Said he avoids contact. He is playing the wrong position. He is the best Safety in the Draft. Hand held 4.29 speed. Record breaking 60 meter track guy ay UNC. 3 ints in 2011 as an LB. All over the field. Coverage is his best game. Nose for the ball. Faster then every WR on the Pats schedule and he will make a tackle.DW toys

Yes Jeffrey did take their milk money. But I ask you this DW? If he was drafted where do you put him? Any first round round WR? They would have to beat out Welker and LLoyd to get any kind of significant playing time unless the Patriots plan on running a lot more empty back field which would be a waste considering the talent at TE. I don't know, sure does have a lot of talent though. If they see him as the future and want to bring him along than that's fine by me. But as of right now Lloyd is signed for 3 years and Welker is soon to follow I think.

Interesting thought of ZB playing safety. I absolutely can't stand the thought of him as a LB but as a safety it does make sense. But how high are you going to have to draft him? 2nd round? You could get a Safety ready to play right away if you drafted H Smith in the 2nd or Barron in the first. Never the less I would be very interested if BB did this and thought he could make him great.

 

[everlong]

- Dontari Poe (falling), after getting shocked by this incredible measurables at the Combine, seems like draft gurus are taking another look at his game film... and deciding that he's maybe not that great after all. What it means to us: Fletcher Cox will probably go even higher than we thought, d%#*!@t, and probably out of range. Poe might come into range for us, but is he someone we want to spend an early pick on? If he dropped to #31, that might start to feel like value. But I'm not too eager to trade up for it.

I still think some team will overdraft Poe but sadly you're right about this pushing Cox higher.

- Courtney Upshaw (falling), after showing no particular improvement during his Pro Day after a disappointing Combine. What it means to us: a sure fire Top-15 pick dropping into the 20s would be a nice treat. If he lasts to #27, I think BB will pull the trigger, setting what I think is the floor on Upshaw's freefall.

I just don't see BB drafting him given he doesn't fit the size requirements they've stuck by. I think the Steelers will take him at 24 regarless.

- Shae McClellin (rising), all my efforts to not talk too much about McClellin are for naught now that Mayock has upgraded him to the #2 DE/OLB on his board after Melvin Ingram, and ahead of Andre Branch and Whitney Mercilus. NFL.com news: Draft positional rankings: Pro days influence player stocks Thanks for nothing, Mayock. What it means to us: no chance that he's stilling there at #48 anymore. Now, if we want him, it'll probably cost us #31.

They could also trade down from 27 or 31 to the late 30's and still get him. The more I look at him the more I think he is versatile enough for BB to bite and he has the physical standards he desires.

- Michael Floyd (rising), his film is making an impression and it seems people are more willing to overlook his off-field stuff. What it means to us: not a damn thing, since we wouldn't have traded that high for him anyway. But maybe it creates a bit of a scramble for WRs in the first round, pulling Wright and Hill higher than they might have gone, and pushes some of the defensive players down towards us.

If it wasn't for the fact that we're so needy on defense I think a case could be built for Wright with one of our two first rounders. I hope you're right and somebody bites on Hill in the first.

- Brock Osweiler (rising), hearing rumors that Osweiler and Weeden may get consideration at the bottom of the first round for QB needy teams like Cleveland and Miami. Maybe they're just saying that to justify passing on Tannehill. But, whatever. What it means to us: could only be good news if some team is willing to give us solid trade value for one of our first round picks.

Trading down 10-15 spots is going to be a huge value in this spot. There is no quality drop off.

- Stephon Gilmore (rising), Gilmore has always been a 2nd round prospect, but now people are starting to slot him ahead of Kirkpatrick and Jenkins. wtf? I don't buy it, but that doesn't mean I like Kirkpatrick or Jenkins any better than I did last week. What it means for us: maybe nothing. I think the 1st round CBs are sketchy as a group. I'd rather take Minnefield or Hosley in the 2nd.

Gilmore has a ton of physical talent but his technique needs a lot of work. SC players haven't had great production in the NFL in the Spurier era which would scare me taking him high. If Kirkpatrick falls to 27 and BB doesn't pull the trigger you know Saban said he's not worth the headache.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

If Kirkpatrick falls to 27 and BB doesn't pull the trigger you know Saban said he's not worth the headache.

If Kirkpatrick falls to #27, then you know that Saban has talked ugly about the kid to a lot of teams.

 

[everlong]

If Kirkpatrick falls to #27, then you know that Saban has talked ugly about the kid to a lot of teams.

Even more accurate.

 

[patsinthesnow]

Really don't understand the Osweiler hype. The guy is terrible.

I'd rather have Gabbert.

Him, along with Tannehill, are complete crap IMO. People, even NFL teams, fall in love with the height/speed/arm strength of these type of guys but when you watch game film they are pretty awful.

Dalton should of been the 2nd QB taken last year and whatever people say about Moore I'd rather him than both those guys.

 

[strongside]

Not that his opinion matters much, but Brian Baldinger crushed both Osweiler and Weedon on Path to the Draft last night. Pretty much said that Osweiler shouldn't be drafted and Weedon is a 5th or 6th rd pick because of the age concerns.