Jason Cole: Welker won't hold out if he doesn't have a new deal

[Rob0729]

Dear Pats fans, after talking to a couple of sources, I believe there's almost zero chance Wes Welker holds out.

https://twitter.com/#/JasonColeYahoo/status/184472119999078400

 

[BradyManny]

Wes is a true team player, and a guy truly motivated by wanting to win. I'm not surprised.

Hopefully he gets a chance to win a ring this year.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

https://twitter.com/#/JasonColeYahoo/status/184472119999078400

Thanks, Incarcerated Rob.

 

[Rob0729]

Thanks, Incarcerated Rob.

Ok, I am upset. Ian assured me when I registered that my criminal record would be expunged on Patsfans.com. No one is supposed to know that I currently reside at Cedar Junction as a guest of the state.

 

[Tunescribe]

I called this weeks ago. Welker actually is happy getting the $9 million this coming season and just assumes his career will continue beyond that.

 

[rjw]

Hate when players hold out. Wes doesn't really seem to be the hold out type. Which is good. Of course.

 

[Fencer]

Given that he came back from a nasty injury already, he may be less worried than most about the "OMG -- what if I'm injured?" scenario.

Besides -- one year on franchise money is already a big boost to his lifetime earnings.

 

[voluntarysaftey]

if welker was going to hold out he should've done it last year when he was playing at a bargain. this year he's playing at a premium.

 

[mgteich]

Or he may be more worried since he knows that one bad hit can put him out for another year.

One question is whether $9.5M is enough guaranteed money, enough to compensate Welker for the possibility of injury. Clearly if Welker thinks that he only has a couple of years left, then it makes sense to sign since, as you say, $9.5M is a major part of his remaining projected earnings.

Participating in practice without signing a contract is crazy, IMHO. Of course, the one year franchise tag "offer" is a contract.

Given that he came back from a nasty injury already, he may be less worried than most about the "OMG -- what if I'm injured?" scenario.

Besides -- one year on franchise money is already a big boost to his lifetime earnings.

 

[supafly]

Or he may be more worried since he knows that one bad hit can put him out for another year.

One question is whether $9.5M is enough guaranteed money, enough to compensate Welker for the possibility of injury. Clearly if Welker thinks that he only has a couple of years left, then it makes sense to sign since, as you say, $9.5M is a major part of his remaining projected earnings.

Participating in practice without signing a contract is crazy, IMHO. Of course, the one year franchise tag "offer" is a contract.

He'll likely do what many of the players do in his position; take out an insurance policy.

The premium is a bit high, but ultimately it's worth it in case of injury.

DeSean Jackson is one example of many who have done it, during his holdout last year.

DeSean takes out insurance policy

 

[Rob0729]

Or he may be more worried since he knows that one bad hit can put him out for another year.

One question is whether $9.5M is enough guaranteed money, enough to compensate Welker for the possibility of injury. Clearly if Welker thinks that he only has a couple of years left, then it makes sense to sign since, as you say, $9.5M is a major part of his remaining projected earnings.

Participating in practice without signing a contract is crazy, IMHO. Of course, the one year franchise tag "offer" is a contract.

I think his age probably plays into his decision to not holding out. If he holds out this year, he will be trying to get a long term deal at age 32 which will make it even harder to recoupe that $9.5 million in a new deal.

I think Welker being a team guy plays a big part in his decision, but he isn't like Logan Mankins who held out at age 27 under a RFA tender (the tender was considerably less than what Welker is getting this year under the franchise tag). Welker can't afford to give up that money because he would likely be tagged next year and be another year older.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Ok, I am upset. Ian assured me when I registered that my criminal record would be expunged on Patsfans.com. No one is supposed to know that I currently reside at Cedar Junction as a guest of the state.

Now, that's funny.

 

[patfanken]

The $9.5MM that would be guaranteed the moment he signs his name to the tender is almost equal to the $11+MM he's earned over the last 5 years. OF COURSE he is going to sign it. Welker knows he on borrowed time. He also knows that its very unlikely that at his age and size that he is going to make THAT much money in 2013.

He probably already knows that his catches are going to go down his season. The Pats are looking like they are going to run the ball more. While the pass offense will remain as effective, its likely that the catches will be distributed a bit differently. And there is even the possibility that Welker might start to slow down just a fraction.

All that will lead to a reduction in his individual production, and fair or unfair, it will lead to the perception that he is slipping (even if he catches 90+ ballls). A 33 year old,. midget slot receiver DOES NOT get offered big buck long term contracts, especially one whose production is so linked to a particular offensive system and QB.

So, damned right skippy, he's going to sign his tender and be happy when he does it.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

The $9.5MM that would be guaranteed the moment he signs his name to the tender is almost equal to the $11+MM he's earned over the last 5 years. OF COURSE he is going to sign it. Welker knows he on borrowed time. He also knows that its very unlikely that at his age and size that he is going to make THAT much money in 2013.

He probably already knows that his catches are going to go down his season. The Pats are looking like they are going to run the ball more. While the pass offense will remain as effective, its likely that the catches will be distributed a bit differently. And there is even the possibility that Welker might start to slow down just a fraction.

All that will lead to a reduction in his individual production, and fair or unfair, it will lead to the perception that he is slipping (even if he catches 90+ ballls). A 33 year old,. midget slot receiver DOES NOT get offered big buck long term contracts, especially one whose production is so linked to a particular offensive system and QB.

So, damned right skippy, he's going to sign his tender and be happy when he does it.

(1) He earned at least $18M, and I think, with incentives, probably $20M.
(2) How many times have we heard that before? . . .
(3) Welker doesn't turn 33 until the 2014 season.

In any case, one other reason not to sign his tender: if he wants to remain a Patriot, it takes away the possibility of someone making BB "an offer he can't refuse" during the draft.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Wes is more like Tedy Bruschi and less like Ty Law.....and that is a player who chooses team over possible higher financial gain.

He wants to be a Patriot and will be patient in negotiations

Can't see anyone surprised by this news.

 

[Kontradiction]

Good boy.

 

[patfanken]

(1) He earned at least $18M, and I think, with incentives, probably $20M.
(2) How many times have we heard that before? . . .
(3) Welker doesn't turn 33 until the 2014 season.

In any case, one other reason not to sign his tender: if he wants to remain a Patriot, it takes away the possibility of someone making BB "an offer he can't refuse" during the draft.

Thanks for the info on his money. I thought it was less than that. Still making 50% of the money you've made over 5 year in ONE, isn't bad either.

Also I think a good part of why Welker is so keen to remain a Patriot is that the understands that his success has a good deal to do with the offensive system he's in and the QB he plays for. While it would be stupid to suggest he wouldn't be successful elsewhere, it's not unfair to think that it would be a lot harder for him to reach the level of success he's had here with another system and QB

 

[theGronk]

I remember when he was a Dolphin thinking "this guy is going to be good, if only he had a team around him."

When we got him it was like x-mas. What was that business sorrounding it though? Wasn't the league saying there were some shady dealings?

 

[SHOWTIME15]

He dropped that pass. He'd better.

 

[Reckedtrek]

I hope this story (Wes not holding out) is true. And I hope they can find middle ground and just get a deal done. One less possible distraction to worry about.