Time value of picks/trading picks

[Ring 6]

From the first three rounds from 2006-2009, only four of 14 draftees are still with the team. One of the four is Ron Brace. To me this is a pretty
poor drafting record. Belichick is better at signing middle tier free agents.

Interesting that you leave out 10-11 where 9 of 10 are still here, and at least 6 will be starters.

How many of the picks from 06-09 were trade downs?

Going back to 2006 is not realistic because very few players stay on the same team 6 years after being drafted, but I know why you did that. 2007 is also silly to include because they had 1 pick in those 3 rounds. We do still have the guy who had the 19th best season ever by a WR last year with a 2nd from that draft though.

So really we are down to 2 years where 100% of the 1st are still here. 60% of the 2nds are still here with 2 of the 3 starting, and we missed on a bunch of 3rds. Hardly poor.

 

[plk]

From the first three rounds from 2006-2009, only four of 14 draftees are still with the team. One of the four is Ron Brace. To me this is a pretty poor drafting record.

It may well be, but to know, you still have to compare it to other managers records. How many managers can you find who have not had a similarly bad record over four drafts? What sort of records have other managers had over 2006-2009?

Neither you, nor anyone else, is going to be convincing until you compare Belichick's results with those of other managers. I am sure there are some who've done better over that period, but how many.

For a longer-term view, see:Decade in the making: the ultimate NFL draft grades | Cold Hard Football Facts

 

[Fencer]

But I digress......thte bottom line is that the trading down is not why this team has stayed good over this time. How many big hits have there been with a traded down pick? Gronk?

I have some doubts about the trading down hit rate too, and I certainly haven't memorized which pick came on which trade, but Matt Light came on a trade down (from a slot where the Steelers picked a 3-4 LB DROY, however).

Gronk was more of a trade up than a trade down, but it started from a time-value trade-forward deal.

Vollmer wasn't a trade pick, but he was in a busy 2nd round in a trade-down year.

Mayo and McCourty were trade downs, although the trade-down bounties for them busted.

Hernandez was a trade-down bounty that did not bust.

 

[Ring 6]

I have some doubts about the trading down hit rate too, and I certainly haven't memorized which pick came on which trade, but Matt Light came on a trade down (from a slot where the Steelers picked a 3-4 LB DROY, however).

Gronk was more of a trade up than a trade down, but it started from a time-value trade-forward deal.

Vollmer wasn't a trade pick, but he was in a busy 2nd round in a trade-down year.

Mayo and McCourty were trade downs, although the trade-down bounties for them busted.

Hernandez was a trade-down bounty that did not bust.

I'd say we made out quite a bit better with Matt Light than the Steelers did with Kendrall Bell

 

[manxman2601]

I think BB realizes that whenever he trades down, it is always to a team with a worse record than us since we are at the top of the league each year. If you can move up 15 spots in the first round just by trading to the Redskins, you take that every time.

Not for the next two years I hope.

 

[Deus Irae]

I could certainly see BB trade out of that second 1st round pick, if he didn't have to drop down too far and he'd already gotten a quality prospect with the first 1st rounder. That's the sort of move that seems to fit the pattern.

 

[Fencer]

I'd say we made out quite a bit better with Matt Light than the Steelers did with Kendrall Bell

Indeed. And I'm happy with McCourty over either Dez Bryant or Tim Tebow.

 

[everlong]

Given that I feel there's no difference in this year's draft between the talent around 21 from 41 I hope they move both first rounders. However I hope they do something like trade 31 and a 3rd to get to 20 and take a player like Cox and then trade 27 to move down and get the third back plus a pick still near the top of the second. Use that pick and the pick at 48 to grab a couple more defenders to expedite the rebuild.

 

[manxman2601]

From the first three rounds from 2006-2009, only four of 14 draftees are still with the team. One of the four is Ron Brace. To me this is a pretty
poor drafting record. Belichick is better at signing middle tier free agents.

Those drafts netted us our leading WR, our second most important defensive player and about 15% of our 53 man squad.

Judging a draft by how many players remain on a team is a very poor way of doing it. Yes we made mistakes, as did every other team. The difference is, we got rid of our mistakes, other teams held on to theirs. We went to the SB, most of the rest didn't. Go figure.

 

[Fencer]

An interesting question would be to compare where BB has gotten the most value per trade-value-chart-point. Off the top of my head, I wouldn't be surprised if it's pretty balanced.

The high first-rounders were Seymour, Mayo, and Warren.

The lower first-rounders included Wilfork, Maroney, and a lot of guys in-between those extremes. (No first rounder was worse than JAG starter Maroney.)

The high second round ranges from Gronkowski to Chad Jackson. What you think of it probably depends in big part on what you think of Chung.

The low second round includes Branch, Vollmer, and Spikes, but also Wheatley and Hill.

The third round -- well, the less said about that, the better, but it did net some years of JAG starter.

The fourth round probably has good average value -- Asante, Jarvis Green, Gostowski, some JAG RTs, ... Also a whole lot of busts.

And so on.

 

[Ring 6]

I could certainly see BB trade out of that second 1st round pick, if he didn't have to drop down too far and he'd already gotten a quality prospect with the first 1st rounder. That's the sort of move that seems to fit the pattern.

The key is the bolded.
If its 31 for 58 and a 1 next year, I don't like it.

 

[MP-Logick]

Everyone loves to point to 2006-2009 as an example of poor drafting. I'm sorry, did 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2010 all go out the window somehow?

Not to mention the 2007 draft was so awful (unless you were in the top 15) that he smartly traded his draft choices and turned them into Jerod Mayo a year later, Randy Moss, and Wes Welker. And Meriweather, who did at least have 2-3 productive seasons as a Patriot. I'd call that a pretty decent draft.

Every time BB trades down, there always turns out to be really good players available at the spots he trades down to...the point to any successful draft is just to pick the right players.

I was looking at the Packers' and Steelers' drafts recently, over the same period, who so many people are holding up as the perfect measure of drafting success, who BB should be emulating. With the Packers:

In 2006 they whiffed on 3 of their 5 picks in the first 3 rounds
In 2007 they whiffed on their first and second round picks, and one of their two thirds
In 2008 they whiffed on 2 of their 4 picks in the second and third rounds
In 2009 they had a pair of really good first round picks, but not a single player in any of the other rounds is still on the roster.
Most of their fans have written off their 2010 second round pick, Mike Neal as a bust, also.

Then I started looking at the Steelers, and you can see the same thing: Around some really good players in the first three rounds there are also a bunch of draft busts no one remembers. BB misses, particularly on defense, but so do a lot of teams. Good teams.

 

[Ring 6]

An interesting question would be to compare where BB has gotten the most value per trade-value-chart-point. Off the top of my head, I wouldn't be surprised if it's pretty balanced.

The high first-rounders were Seymour, Mayo, and Warren.

The lower first-rounders included Wilfork, Maroney, and a lot of guys in-between those extremes. (No first rounder was worse than JAG starter Maroney.)

The high second round ranges from Gronkowski to Chad Jackson. What you think of it probably depends in big part on what you think of Chung.

The low second round includes Branch, Vollmer, and Spikes, but also Wheatley and Hill.

The third round -- well, the less said about that, the better, but it did net some years of JAG starter.

The fourth round probably has good average value -- Asante, Jarvis Green, Gostowski, some JAG RTs, ... Also a whole lot of busts.

And so on.

Remember when we trade a 1 we typically get a 1 next year plus the 2.
In the Mayo example, we did better than if we just held the pick, so whatever other pick we got in that deal, was gravy.
This year we have the Saints 1 this year plus Shane Vereen. Arguably the Saints 1 this year has just as much value as the 1 we traded and Vereen is the bonus we got for being patient.
Thats exactly the logic, in the long run you end up losing absolutely nothing in terms of getting an equal value a year later, but you gain the 2nd rounder pretty much for free.
The fact that IN A TRADE you discount next years pick by a round doesn't mean in the long run you get less.
The player we pick this year is not a lesser version of last years 1 because it came a year later, we just benefitted from someone elses desperation to get a specific player.

 

[Ring 6]

Everyone loves to point to 2006-2009 as an example of poor drafting. I'm sorry, did 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2010 all go out the window somehow?

Not to mention the 2007 draft was so awful (unless you were in the top 15) that he smartly traded his draft choices and turned them into Jerod Mayo a year later, Randy Moss, and Wes Welker. And Meriweather, who did at least have 2-3 productive seasons as a Patriot. I'd call that a pretty decent draft.

Every time BB trades down, there always turns out to be really good players available at the spots he trades down to...the point to any successful draft is just to pick the right players.

I was looking at the Packers' and Steelers' drafts recently, over the same period, who so many people are holding up as the perfect measure of drafting success, who BB should be emulating. With the Packers:

In 2006 they whiffed on 3 of their 5 picks in the first 3 rounds
In 2007 they whiffed on their first and second round picks, and one of their two thirds
In 2008 they whiffed on 2 of their 4 picks in the second and third rounds
In 2009 they had a pair of really good first round picks, but not a single player in any of the other rounds is still on the roster.
Most of their fans have written off their 2010 second round pick, Mike Neal as a bust, also.

Then I started looking at the Steelers, and you can see the same thing: Around some really good players in the first three rounds there are also a bunch of draft busts no one remembers. BB misses, particularly on defense, but so do a lot of teams. Good teams.

Also, just because fans don't like players like Maroney and Meriwhether does not make their drafting a 'whiff' when they both were the top guy at their position on a winning team for a number of years.

 

[Deus Irae]

Everyone loves to point to 2006-2009 as an example of poor drafting. I'm sorry, did 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2010 all go out the window somehow?

Not to mention the 2007 draft was so awful (unless you were in the top 15) that he smartly traded his draft choices and turned them into Jerod Mayo a year later, Randy Moss, and Wes Welker. And Meriweather, who did at least have 2-3 productive seasons as a Patriot. I'd call that a pretty decent draft.

Every time BB trades down, there always turns out to be really good players available at the spots he trades down to...the point to any successful draft is just to pick the right players.

I was looking at the Packers' and Steelers' drafts recently, over the same period, who so many people are holding up as the perfect measure of drafting success, who BB should be emulating. With the Packers:

In 2006 they whiffed on 3 of their 5 picks in the first 3 rounds
In 2007 they whiffed on their first and second round picks, and one of their two thirds
In 2008 they whiffed on 2 of their 4 picks in the second and third rounds
In 2009 they had a pair of really good first round picks, but not a single player in any of the other rounds is still on the roster.
Most of their fans have written off their 2010 second round pick, Mike Neal as a bust, also.

Then I started looking at the Steelers, and you can see the same thing: Around some really good players in the first three rounds there are also a bunch of draft busts no one remembers. BB misses, particularly on defense, but so do a lot of teams. Good teams.

One of the sillier arguments to come down the pike in some time.

 

[Fencer]

Remember when we trade a 1 we typically get a 1 next year plus the 2.

Of course.

But in that particular post I was leaving aside the time dimension and only looking at the draft position dimension.

 

[mgteich]

I would expect us to trade down to about 45-50 and get a 2012 first. Obviously, how far we are willing to go depends on where we expect the the team we trade with will finish next year. For example, I would trade our 1st for Indy's 2011 1st and a 2012 7th.

The key is the bolded.
If its 31 for 58 and a 1 next year, I don't like it.

 

[IllegalContact]

I'd say we made out quite a bit better with Matt Light than the Steelers did with Kendrall Bell

How about Brandon Tate versus mike Wallace?

 

[Ring 6]

How about Brandon Tate versus mike Wallace?

What does that have to do with the trade down to get Matt Light, or the topic in general?

 

[IllegalContact]

What does that have to do with the trade down to get Matt Light, or the topic in general?

Not sure what Kendal bell has to do with anything, ever......